south asia challenges threats and trends contact saarc iii dec 2011

South AsiaChallenges, Threats and Trends

Dr. Mansi Mehrotra

December 2011, Kathmandu, Nepal, CONTACT‐SAARC‐III

PURPOSE

To understand the South Asian kaleidoscope

(from Greek kalos beautiful + eidos form + ‐SCOPE)


Presenter

Presentation Notes

South Asia as a region, shares regional space. It is composed of communities controlling certain natural resources and united through a certain set of historical or cultural values. It has a continued history of inter-dependence that was broken after the end of colonial rule. But the regional political entity found its first formal expression in 1985 in the form of SAARC. Afghanistan became part of it in 2005. With one quarter billion of worlds population along with intra regional diversity makes it equivalent to a size of a continent. It is home to several ancient civilizations that are highly evolved linguistically, literary and culturally along with ethical and spiritual movements that corresponds to many of the major religions of the world. Recently is has been said the South Asia is “The Most Dangerous Part in the world to live in” 5 of the regions 8 countries are listed among 25 most critical nations in the failed states index. Before we approach to the challenges, threats and trends in the region let us talk about ourselves.

What are the elements that defines your Ethnic Community?

Ethnicity is a sense of belonging to a particulargroup that distinguishes them from others insocial, cultural, language, religion, region, history,genetic, economic, customs, place of residenceand traditional orientation.

The membership to such exclusive group gives itsmembers material and social advantages alongwith psychological support.


Presenter

Presentation Notes

These identities can play a centripetal as well as centrifugal force, a uniting and dividing I was born in a middle class Hindu family. I remember my mother, who was born in post-independence sectarian violence period, distinctly telling me to stay away from Muslims. I wondered Why? Well, I was too young. But The first distinct memory of a friend I have was of Shaz Hussain, when I was in my third standard. Let us fast forward 30 years. My mother-in-law, who was my mother’s neighbor during her childhood, had given the same instruction to my husband. Coincidently, the only friends my husband kept telling me stories about are Gissan Bahrain, Firas Lebenon and Faruq Pakistan whom he lovingly calls Faruqi. All Muslims! 10 days back, we went to Jodhpur to celebrate our daughter’s first b’day as we wanted it a complete Royal and private affair. The only phone call, apart from our immediate family members, was from Faroqui. He called at a time we just sat on an hour long vintage car ride. The call was for about 10 min. but Farouqi Chacha (Uncle) and his stories were there with us during the entire ride. According to a Nigerian author Chimamanda Adichie Economic and political world stories are defined by power: how, who, when, and how many stories are told!�It is impossible to engage with the problems of a person without engaging with all the stories of that place and that person �Single Story Robes people of dignity It makes the recognition of our equal humanity difficult. Single story tell how we are different than how we are similar.�Stories matter, many story matters! Stories are being used to dispossess and malign. But stories can also be used to empower and humanise. Stories can break the dignity of the people. But stories can also repair that broken dignity.�When we reject the single story and when we relaise that there is never a single story of any place, we regain a kind of paradise PAUSE The most dangerous part of the world? Now Let us try to discover each other

INTERVIEW EACH OTHER(Find your partner sitting on your Right)

• What does your partner like about her/his ethnic community? (INDIVIDUALLY)

• What does you partner dislike about her/his community? (INDIVIDUALLY)

• What are some of the common stories your ethnic communities share? (AS A PAIR)


Presenter

Presentation Notes

There are many irritants within the socio-political fabric that can lead to civil unrest. Now let us discuss 4 ethnic issues that have united and divided us. These are: Issue of Language, Religion, Region and Caste

LANGUAGE

• Language is a central feature of human identity. When we hear someone speak, we immediately make guesses about gender, education level, age, profession, and place of origin. Beyond this individual matter, a language is a powerful symbol of national and ethnic identity. (Spolsky, 1999, p. 181)


Presenter

Presentation Notes

The region is highly evolved linguistically, for example the total no. of individual listed languages are around 6,800 of which South Asian countries account for around 700 with India alone having 452 listed languages. In fact it is stated that in India if you travel a 100 km the language dialect changes. However, Europe accounts to 234. So do you agree that we are diverse enough? Papua New Guinea accounts to 832 with average 4500 speakers of each dialect out of a population of just under seven million.

Language Identity Crises• Pakistan

– National language is Urdu which is the native language of only about 7% of country’s population• Nepal

– Nepal Bhasha Movement 1909 after Khas was renamed “Nepali” and Nepali bhasa was “Newari” in 1905

• Bangladesh– Bengali Language Movement (21st Feb)

• Sri Lanka– Official Language Act No.33 1956

• India– 1952, Telugu Movement by Congress leader Sriramalu 56 day fast. 1953 Andhra Pradesh

Created– 1964, use of English language to cease (TN, WB, Karnataka, AP and Pondicherry)– Anti‐Hindi feelings by Shiv Sena and Maharashtra Navniman Sena– There are also odd examples. In Mizoram, Meghalaya and Nagaland, India’s three Christian‐

majority states in the North‐East, the languages used for official purposes are Hindi, and English (link language), and not the languages spoken by the people in those states.


RELIGION

• “Le coeur a ses raisons que la raison ne connaît point. (The heart has its reasons that reason does not know at all). Les Pensées, (Thoughts) Blaise Pascal, 1665

• Religion is often used to justify conflict, and becomes a source of conflict, even though most religions of the world emphasize peaceful coexistence and tolerance.


Religious Intolerance• Afghanistan

– March 2000, Taliban destroyed the Bahamian statues• Pakistan

– Small Christian minority has periodically been targeted since Pakistan became a US ally in the so‐called War on Terror. – Red Mosque crisis– Attacks on Ahmadis, Hindus and Shiites– Pakistani authorities shut down 156 radio stations for operating illegally and for “fanning sectarian hatred and anti‐state feelings” in

western tribal areas– Blasphemy laws alienate both moderate Muslims and non‐Muslims– Hudood Ordianace requires strict adherence to Muslim practices and blatantly discriminate against non‐Muslims in the court of law– The Federal Sharia Court (FSC) ensures that all legislative acts and judicial pronouncements, including those of the Supreme Court,

are compatible with Islamic law. • India

– Anti Sikh Riots 1984– Ethnic Cleansing of Kashmiri Pandits– Religious involvement in North‐East India Militancy– Anti‐Muslim Violence– Anti‐Christian Violence– Anti‐Hindu Violence

• Nepal– Christian and Muslim Religious minorities are attacked– On May 23, 2009, a bomb attack against Lalitpur's Catholic Church of the Assumption, claimed by the NDA. Days later, the NDA

issued a call for all Christians to leave Nepal.• Bhutan

– It is illegal to convert someone from the country's two predominant religions, Buddhism and Hinduism– Government has limited non‐Buddhist missionary activity, barring non‐Buddhist missionaries from entering the country, limiting

construction of non‐Buddhist religious buildings, and restricting the celebration of some non‐Buddhist religious festivals.December 2011, Kathmandu, Nepal, CONTACT‐SAARC‐III

• Bangladesh– Religious minorities, especially Hindus and Ahmadiyyas, face

manifold problems. – Religious minorities are readily attacked by the influential and

politically powerful, enjoying absolute impunity many of them while performing their rituals.

– In many places, houses, businesses and religious properties have been taken or destroyed. Girls and women belonging to religious minorities have been raped for reason of their beliefs.

• Sri Lanka– flag of Śri Lankān– Arrest of Sarah Malathi Perera for her book “From darkness to

light: Questions and Answers”• Maldives

– According to the former President Maumoon Abdul Gavoom, no religion other than Islam should be allowed in the Maldives.


ETHNO‐REGIONAL IDENTITIES

If we institutionally define a nation‐state as a set of reciprocal economic, military, and even social rights and obligations, it becomes obvious that a modern nation‐state is as much a state of mind as a geographic entity” Louis Depree


Regional Divide in SA• Sri Lanka India

• Jharkahand Movement• Uttrakhand• Gorkhaland• Bodoland• Ladakh• The Northeast• Magadh, Bhojpuri Pradesh, Angika Pradesh, • Bajjika Pradesh and • Seemanchal from Bihar, • Udayachal, and Kamatapur from Assam, • Braj Pradesh and Rohilkhand from UP, • Malwa from MP, • Mewar from Rajasthan and • Kuchh and Saurastra from Gujarat• Maharashrtra,MP, AP, UP and Bihar

(Vidarbha, Bundelkand, Telangana, Vindhya Pradesh, Mahakaushal, Purvanchal, Harit Pradesh and Mithilanchal) December 2011, Kathmandu, Nepal,

CONTACT‐SAARC‐III

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The region has distinct landscape with natural and political boundaries that has benefited the political elites to raise a demand to secession, recognition or re-organisation

Pakistan

• Nepal– Three ecological regions are: (i) the Mountain, (ii) the Hills, and (iii) the Tarai– Politically five development regions by the Panchayat rulers (i) Eastern Development Region, (ii)

Central Development Region, (iii) Western Development Region, (iv) Mid‐Western Development Region, and (v) Far‐Western Development Region.

Time Group Location Description

1947‐48 Baloch Kalat and surroundings

First Baloch insurgency of Abdul Karim Khan against forcible annexation of Balochistaninto Pakistan

1947‐48 Pashtun NWFP Reaction to dismissal of Dr. Khan’s nationalist government

1958‐63 Baloch Baloch countryside Resistance against one‐unit scheme, distant identity

1950s Pashtun NWFP Resistance against one‐unit scheme, afghan irredentist movement. But at the same time Dr. Khan accepted the offer of central government and became Chief minister of West Pakistan

1973‐77 Baloch Baloch tribal areas of Marri‐Mengal

Baloch insurgency against central government on the dismissal of nationalist regime. This war involved more than 80,000 Pakistani troops and some 55,000 Baloch guerrillas (Harrison, 1981). The insurgency ended after the over throw of Bhutto by Zia‐ul‐Haq.

1973‐74 Pashtun NWFP Resignation of elected government as a protest against central governments interference in provincial matters of Balochistan and NWFP

1980s Sindhis Rural Sindh Movement for the Restoration of Democracy

1980s Mohajirs Urban Sindh Killings in Karachi

2002‐? Baloch Baloch countryside Baloch resistance movement: a response to marginalisation, demands for distributive justice


SOCIO‐ECONOMIC GROUPS

“There is no caste in blood.” Edwin Arnold


Presenter

Presentation Notes

The uniting and dividing issues raises the concerns for security in the region. “The most dangerous part of the world”

GROUP EXERCISE

Talk to people on your own table



Presenter

Presentation Notes

Point out the challenges and threats to Human security vis-à-vis the following

ECONOMIC SECURITY

• Poverty and income inequality• Food security• Employment security• Impact of privatisation on economic security• Globalisation and economic security


Presenter

Presentation Notes

40% below poverty line; there is high level of income, wealth and asset inequality; extremely unequal access and availability of quality health, education and vocational training facility; 2/3rd pop. Below poverty line with less than 2US a day. Poor have very little ability to absorb1 exogenous shocks Casualisation of labor; not skilled or semi-skilled; no employment benefits; no re-training programs; no safety nets With privatisation: Contract appointment; Golden hand shake or removed without benefits; lost job securities Agriculture, small and medium enterprises and informal sector – no labor law Globalisation increased wealth and inequality Food security- malnutrition in children and micro-nutirition deficiencies and malnutrition in pregnant women; rising food prices with stagnant wages; no storage facility or inventory system; imbalance between wage and food inflation Policy implication targeted feeding reduce food security issue

HEALTH AND HUMAN SECURITY

• Health security • Spread of infectious diseases• Causes of health security


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Causes for health insecurity Poverty of income and health; lack of effective and widespread healthcare delivery system; poor immunisation coverage of children; poor reproductive health care facilities Governments low expenditure and investment in health damages basic health facility Millions die due to malnutrition, poor water and sanitation and avoidable deaths; premature mortality; not developed primary health system only secondary and tertiary health care Malaria- 2 million people die in India, Pak and BD. In SL, death due to malaria has reduced significantly. Other are TB, HIV/AIDS etc. Healthcare system doesnot provide same services to all. Most hospitals are private, most can afford; women and children bears burnt of health care deprivation; death of women during pregnancy; rural urban gap in health care Policy implications: gender equality in education, health and economic and political participation. Education for health, improve reproductive health, empower women Increase public spending on health care; focus on poor; preventive health v/s curative care; improve public sector management; public-private partnership Regulation of private sector, health safety nets for the poor

ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

• Water security• Air pollution• Energy security and environmental impact• Deforestation• Natural and man‐made disasters• Environmental Security in South Asia‐some initiatives


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Himalayan water system feeds the life cycles of much of SA (except SL) Pak and BD has renewable internal freshwater resources of less than 1000 cubic meters per capita- a level commonly taken to indicate that water scarcity is a severe constraint. India-fallen below 2000 cubic meter. Increasing dependence on ground water Lahor and Dhaka exclusively by ground water. India 80% of rural water coming from ground water Water demand for irrigation Agricultural economy depends on weather patterns and environment. India and Pakistan has the larges cannel system in the world thus storage of water and generating electricity. BD depends on fish and agriculture thus on regular flow of water. It also situated in the area of typhoons and flood Deforestation leads to soil- erosion and silting of waterways and dams and creates new flood patters Ground water contamination and Surface Water contamination: Ganges and Yamuna virtual sewers; Kelani in Colombo; Buriganga in Dhaka and Katnafuli in Chittagong Health effects: 19% of children in Ind. Suffer from diarrhea, loss of life in Pak nad Nepal, in 1992, 2 million death in BD directly related to water contamination, Intestinal infections are widespread due to usage of water from shallow and unprotected wells in SL. Caused by Human waste, industrial development, mismanagement of water resources, Cross-border water sharing- India Pak-Indus water treaty 1960(Jhelum, Chenab and Indus. India-Nepal some issues of Mahakali treaty of 1996. The share of water and electricity from Pancheshwar project (stagnant due to water rights, price of electricity, and status of river at its origin at Kalpani are controversial). Air indoor and out-door pollution accounts for 5% of global burden of disease. The quality of air is severe and further deteriorating. Cause:The unplanned growth of Urban pop. ; use of vehicles, fossil fuels in industrial and thermal power and burning of biomass Leads to Acute Respiratory Infections, Asthama, Lung disease, Bronchitis Biomass:in Nepal 4/5th of energy demand from fulewood, Bhutan firewood source of energy, SL, wood supplies 90% of cooking and heating energy for rural household. Electricity: Nepal and Bhutan are hydropower base remains unexploited Deforestation: poorly designed forest policy, deforestation for agriculture purpose, reliance on wood energy, demand for timber, grazing land, illegal. Resulted in extinction or endangered flora and fauna; erosion of low organic matter content; thus effecting eco-system Natural and man-made disaster: resulted in climate change, environment sustainability, soil degradation, biodiversity, chemical and radio-active material particularly when mismanaged. Arid and semi-arid areas are becoming drier, ozone layer has thinned, 2000 Antarctic Ozone hole covered more than 28 million square km. melting of Himalayan glaciers (swell the banks). Earthquake, floods, draught, cyclones MDG aims at 8 goals (erradicate poverty and hunger; achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality; reduce child mortality; combat major diseases; develop global partnership for development); 18 targets and 48 indicators. Iran-Pakistan-India natural Gas pipleline; Taragram, Tikamgarh, India; Orangi Pilot Project; sustainable environment management program (SEMP) BD; Community Forestry Program Nepal Policy implications:

CONFLICT AND HUMAN SECURITY

• Conflicts between the states in South Asia• Militarisation: protection or threat to Human Security

• Nuclearisation in South Asia: A deterrent or a threat to human security

• Armed conflicts, arms transfers and human security

‐‐‐cont.‐‐‐


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Inter state conflicts are limited to border states 59% of low income countries have suffered armed conflicts since 1950 (Pakistan and India btw. 1950-1995 no. of small conflicts (1000 or more died each year) territorial disputes Kashmir, Sir-Creek, BD war, Siachen, Wullar Barrage project (building dam on jhelum thus violation of 1960 Indus water treaty; Kargil; Baglihar Hydroelectric project- work on Chenab River to administer Kashmir-violation of Indus water treaty SL and India India’s intervention in civil war. 1980’s sent troops to monitor ceasefire but countered with allegations of assistance of Tamil groups Nepal and India Ind. Provides assistance to the Royal Nepal Army to counter the Maoist threat under the treaty made in 1950. but nepal’s link with the Maoist uprising in the northeast India and its acquisition of Chinese weaponry in 1988 seen as a violation of 1950 treaty. Nepal criticism of annexation of Sikkim. PTA under rocky political relations which led to virtual economic blockage in 1980s. Militarisation military expenditure take a large chunk of investment in India and Pakistan. But the largest increase are registered in Nepal, BD and SL has also raised their defence budget non of them in violent international conflict but internal war The trade off between people’s security versus state security is evident in the numbers for the doctors-to-solders. Impact on regional stability: nuclear weapon are deterent and bargaining tool for FP but fail to ensure a political solution.

CONFLICT AND HUMAN SECURITY• Internal conflicts• Refugees• Cost of

conflictHuman costWomen Economic costRefugee


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Intra-state conflicts has caused more causalities SL-North-south divide; Kashmir and autonomous movements in Ind.,Pak,BD; violence in Nepal; poor governance in UP, Baloch etc Refugees for last 25-30 years. They have limited access to education, health, low income, limited access to imunities Immediate and sustained attention to inter and intra-state conflicts in SA

Security of Women

Manipuri women protests nude on 15 july 2004 in front of The Assam Rifles against the rape and killing of Manorama by 17 AR

Women harassed by the Police in Bangladesh

Photograph of Aisha


Presenter

Presentation Notes

45% women are literate and 250,000 million illiterate; informal sector with low wages and unsafe and hazardous environment. Mostly in Agriculture sector. There is reservation of women in parliament either at national or local level but low. In 2005 women held 9.7% of parliamentary seats2% in BD and 20% in Pak Female foeticide;

Gender Equality and Empower WomenShare of women in non‐agricultural wage employment, 1990 & 2004 (in %)

43.2

35.6

23.1

17.3

8.6

39.1

31.1

17.6

12.7

6.6

0 20 40 60

Sri Lanka

Maldives

Bangladesh

Nepal

Pakistan

19902004

46

43

39

18

46

39

38

13

0 50

Europe & C.Asia

Latin America & Caribean

East Asia & Pacific

S.Asia


Security of Children

In Afghanistan almost 1,800 children have been killed or injured in conflict‐related violence from September 2008 to September 2010

More than a third of the world’s child brides are from India


Child mortalityUnder‐five mortality rate per 1,000 live births, 1990 and 2004

37

11

55

50

48

41

43

87

46

14

80

77

76

85

101

257

111

32

166

149

145

123

130

260

0 100 200 300

Maldives 87.8% of Target achieved

Sri Lanka 84.4% of Target achieved

Bhutan 77.7% of Target achieved

Bangladesh 72.5% of target achieved

Nepal 71.4% of target achieved

India 46.3% of target achieved

Pakistan 33.5% of target achieved

Afghanistan 1.7% of target achieved

199020042015

Under‐five mortality rate per 1,000 live births, 1990 and 2004

18

199

27

18

43

63

31

36

56

38

92

171

54

58

81

54

129

188

0 50 100 150 200 250

Latin America & Caribbean 63.9% of target achieved

E.Asia & Pacific 56.9% of target achieved

M.East & N.Africa 46.3% of target achieved

CEE/CIS & Baltic States 44.4% of target achieved

S.Asia 43% of target achieved

Sub‐Saharan Africa 13.6% of target achieved


Net enrolment in primary education

97.1

93.8

89.7

89.7

84

52

54

90

71

86.7

64

33.4

27

0 100 200

Sri Lanka

Bangladesh

Maldives

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Afghanistan

2000‐20051990‐91

Percentage of children of primary school age out of school, total and by sex 2000‐03

2.5

10

11.4

26.8

39.3

49.3

1.9

8.8

19

31.6

46.6

52

3

11.2

4.3

22.3

32.4

46.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Maldives

Bangladesh

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Bhutan

Out of school males (as % of total primary school age males)

Out of school females (as % of total primary school age females)

Total out of school children(% of total primary school age population)

5.7

5.7

11.7

18.7

26

38.5

45.3

5.8

5.3

12.9

22.1

29.9

39.1

49.3

5.6

6.1

10.5

15.4

22.3

37.8

41.3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

E.Asia & Pacific

Latin America & Caribbean

Central and E.Europe/CIS

M.East & N.Africa

South Asia

Eastern and S.Africa

West & C.Africa

Education


DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE AND HUMAN SECURITY

• Nexus between human security and governance

• The sate of governance• The failure of institutions• Economic governance and human security


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Indifference, inefficiencies and corruption of institutions of governance

What can change relation between countries?

• Dangers of "Single Story" (Media)• People‐to‐people Contact• Resolving Border issue• Removal of border restrictions• Identity cards and legal migration• Economic, Trade and Financial Connectivity• Road, rail and air connectivity• Internet and mobile connectivity• Water management• Power sharing• Interdependence not isolation or exclusion• Checking TerrorismDecember 2011, Kathmandu, Nepal,

CONTACT‐SAARC‐III


Presenter

Presentation Notes

This is a picture taken from directly above these camels in the desert at sunset. It is considered to be one of the best pictures of the year. When you look closely, you can see that the camels are the little white lines in the picture. �The black images you see are just the shadows!��Solutions maybe much simpler and easier than it seems...but they are little.