1© 2005 JST/CRDS

Solution of Environment and Energy Solution of Environment and Energy ProblemsProblems

by Cooperation of Asian Countriesby Cooperation of Asian Countries

September 9, 2005September 9, 2005

Kotaro INOUEKotaro INOUE

Center for Research and Development Strategy (CRDS)Center for Research and Development Strategy (CRDS)Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)

1st Asian Science & Technology ForumSession2: Environment and Energy Issues

© 2005 JST/CRDS 2

Contribute to the development of S&T that fulfill social needs and attain social visionsContribute to the development of S&T that fulfill social needs

and attain social visions

Vision

1. Form communities of stakeholders in policy and researches

2. Review the fields of the science and technology3. Clarify important R&D fields, areas, subjects, and their

promotion measures4. Compare with situations of overseas R&Ds5. Draw up the R&D strategy, and contributing to promotion

of R&Ds of the government

1. Form communities of stakeholders in policy and researches

2. Review the fields of the science and technology3. Clarify important R&D fields, areas, subjects, and their

promotion measures4. Compare with situations of overseas R&Ds5. Draw up the R&D strategy, and contributing to promotion

of R&Ds of the government

Mission

Center for Research and Development Strategy （CRDS）(Started on 1, July 2003)

→ JST, MEXT, CSTP, S&T Societies, Universities, Corporations, Public

© 2005 JST/CRDS 3

Organization of CRDS

Fellows Fellows FellowsFellows Fellows

Electronics/IT

PrincipalFellow

Toshiaki IKOMA

Chair FellowRyoji NOYORI

Chemistry/Material Science

PrincipalFellow

Shinji MURAI

Life Science

PrincipalFellow

Goro EGUCHI

Energy/Energy/Environment Environment

PrincipalPrincipalFellowFellow

Kotaro INOUEKotaro INOUE

Research System/ Human

Resources Environment

OverseaR&D Activity

Analysis

Fellows

Department of Planning and Management

ExecutiveDirector

Takashi Suzuki

Director-GeneralToshiaki IKOMA

Steering Committee

Fellows

PrincipalFellow

Hiroshi NAGANO

© 2005 JST/CRDS 4

Interaction between human and nature

Human Activities Nature

Air/Water/Soil/Life

HumanBody/Society

Endocrine disruptor chemicals, CarcinogenSOx, NOx, SPMWaste heatVibration/NoiseView/SunshineInformation

CO2,Chlorofluocarbon, MethaneEndocrine disruptor chemicalsSOx, NOxAerosolConstructionCapture/FellingFarming/Stock farmingGarbage

Global WarmingDepletion of ozone layerAcid rainDeforestation/DesertificationMarine pollutionLoss of biodiversity

Nature

Energy/Resource shortageEarthquake disasterAir pollution/Photochemical hazeLand subsidence/Land slideFood/Water pollution/shortage

Temperature increase Ultraviolet ray increaseSea level riseWater shortage/Heavy rainFlood/MudslideExpansion of New and Contagious diseaseGene resource loss

© 2005 JST/CRDS 5

PredictionPrediction

Conservation/Conservation/ExploitationExploitation

Evaluation/Evaluation/AnalysisAnalysis

MonitoringMonitoring

UnderstandingUnderstanding

Activities in Environment Research

© 2005 JST/CRDS 6

CO2 Isolation

Purpose① CO2 emissions reduction for Global warming control② Conservation of fossil fuel resource

Renewable Energy

Research and development problemsin energy supply

Improvement of Energy Conversion EfficiencyOil 54

Coal 17

Natural Gas 11

Water & Terrestrial Heat 5

Nuclear 13

PowerGeneration

41.5

Non-PowerGeneration

58.5

7

9

810

45

16.5

26Industrial

32.5

Household18

19

13.5

13

Loss 27.5

Loss 66

Total AbandonmentCalorie 100

Useful Energy 34

5

0.5

6.5

7

11

7

4

Flow Chart of Energy Supply in Japan

3

7© 2005 JST/CRDS

Ene

rgy

Env

ironm

ent

WS

on

Env

ironm

enta

l Iss

ues

WS

on S

usta

inab

le D

evel

opm

ent

Impacts onSociety

Impacts onNature

NationalIssues

Foods & Water

EnvironmentalInfluence on diseases

Biodiversity-Ecosystem evaluation technology

Sustainable development in Asia

Future biomass energy systems

Advanced hydrogen energy system

Strategy Programs

G-TeC

Impacts onHuman

Sustainable Dev. of Dev. Countries

Energy / Resources& Recycling

WS

onB

iom

ass

Ene

rgy

WS

onH

ydro

gen

Ene

rgy

International Sympo.Biodiversity-Ecosystem

G-TeC

WS

on

Dev

elop

men

t &En

viro

nmen

tof

Asi

aW

S on

Bio

dive

rsity

-E

cosy

stem

Bro

wn-

bag

mee

ting

AST

F

Ecosystem

International Sympo.“Sustainable development

in Asian countries”

Procedure for Strategies

Joint Session “Energy Systemfor Sustainable Society”

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Sustainable Society Vision (around 2050)◆Scenarios to the Vision◆Essential Research Subjects and Methodologies

WS on feasible scenarios and essential issues forthe Sustainable Society

May 14-15,200４Chair Coordinator: Prof. Itaru YASUI (United Nations University) & 37 Participants

○Preconditions (World)

Items Unit Present Assumed Year 2050

RatioAssumed/Pres

entPopulation billion 6.3 * 9.0 1.4

GDPUS$/Person・YeartrillionUS$/Year

5,100 **32 **

17,000150

3.34.7

CO2Emission

Ton/Person・YearbillionTon/Year

3.6 ***23 ***

3.431

0.9 1.3

*: FY2003 **：FY2001 ***：FY2000By Emissions Scenarios :2000, IPCC Special Report, WMO/UNEP

© 2005 JST/CRDS 9

Predicted Carbon-Dioxide Emission

B1 Scenario Group: focused on global measures for economy, society and environmental sustainability

(Year)

By Emissions Scenarios :2000, IPCC Special Report, WMO/UNEP

Car

bon-

Dio

xide

Em

issi

on (1

00 m

illio

n t )

2050The scenario model of WS

Differences of supposed models

© 2005 JST/CRDS 10

Global Averageas of 2050(supposed)

Canada

SingaporeU.S.A

Australia

Netherlands

BelgiumNorway

SwissSweden

DenmarkJapan

Germany

France

U.K.

Austria

Ireland

Italy

NZ

Korea

Malaysia

TurkeyThailand

ChinaPhilippines

India0

5

10

15

20

25

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

GDP (US$ / capita)

Car

bon-

Dio

xide

Em

issi

on (

t / c

apita

)

Global Averageas of now

GDP and Carbon-Dioxide Emission (2000)

2050

© 2005 JST/CRDS 11

China

India

Others

Indo

ne

sia

Japan

Vie

tN

am

Ph

ilippin

eT

haila

nd

Kore

a

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Car

bon-

Dio

xide

Em

issi

on

（t / c

apita

）

Carbon-Dioxide Emission in Asia (2001)

GlobalAverage (2001)

(2050)

Asian Average (2001)

Population（million ）

© 2005 JST/CRDS 12

・Uncertainties and Complexity in Life/ Ecosystem understood more clearly ・Impacts on ecosystem well managed within sustainable range・ ‘Human Interference Standards’ established based on assessments and the past incidents

Vision of Sustainable Society Vision of Sustainable Society around year 2050around year 2050

Energy / Resources& Recycling

Dr. Yuichi Moriguchi (NIES)

・Energy and material utilized at ultimate efficiency・Satisfaction pursued in a different value from material abundance ・Value standard shifted from mass produced to more personalized and/or crafted goods

Foods & WaterDr. Ryohei Kada (UFJ Inst.）

・Food security: Equal access secured to resources, clean water, foods and sanitation in every country ・Technology transfer & development: Resource utilization and environmental conservation harmonized ・Much less suffering from natural disaster

Sustainable Development ofDev. Countries

Prof. Shinichiro Ogaki (The univ. of Tokyo)

・No poverty or health threat・Equal opportunity achieved between international communities, nations, generations, genders・Practical regional-ecological- communities established・Sustainable lifestyle; coexistence of nature and human

EcosystemProf. Kihachiro Kikuzawa (Kyoto univ.)

© 2005 JST/CRDS 13

1. Establish basic concept of sustainability2. Analyze environment and economy in each country3. Form country/regional models, and scenarios4. Establish consensus on and measures for sustainability5. Form environment oriented community to support the

country-wise approach6. Build knowledge and technology basis about

sustainability7. Establish cooperation system to achieve sustainability8. Foster environment-originated industries

Scenarios to attain sustainable society in Asia(Main problems that should be overcome and the solutions)

Making from material (CRDS-FY2003-WR-01) of strategy workshop sponsored by JST CRDS

© 2005 JST/CRDS 14

Excessive Deforestation,

Collection, Pasturing,

and Cultivation

Shortage of Food & Water

New and re-emerging infectious disease

Poisonous Substance & Waste Management

Deforestation & desertification

Loss of Gene Resource

Erosion & Reclamation of the coast & the mouth of a river region

Megacity（Industriali-zation and

Urbanization）

Exp

ansi

on o

f H

uman

Act

ivity

Population Increase

Economic Development

Global Warming

Energy and Materials Shortages

Pollution of NearshoreWaters

Atmosphere, Soil, Food, Water Pollution

Problems around us

15© 2005 JST/CRDS

R&D cooperationfor sustainable development in Asia (1)

Background

Cooperation between Asian countriesessential for;

①Solution of global problems②Fulfillment of common interests and

solution of problems in Asian countries③Security and welfare of each country

16© 2005 JST/CRDS

1. Sustainable development scenario and environment friendly industrial technologies

• Models and scenariosin each country or regional society

• Environment-friendly, optimal utilization method(water, land, energy, resource, and ecosystem) and technology to achieve them

R&D cooperationfor sustainable development in Asia (2)

17© 2005 JST/CRDS

2. Environmental assessment, preservation, and utilization technology

• Advanced environmental assessments technology• Impact assessment, prevention, and mitigation of climate change

• Observations, forecasts, and evaluation technologies of glocal pollution and ecosystem

• Environmental impact of megacity and mitigation measure

• Environmental preservation technology and advanced and sustainable utilization technology

R&D cooperationfor sustainable development in Asia (3)

18© 2005 JST/CRDS

Promotion strategyin cooperation of Asian countries

Establishment of a center for research, development, and management

• Models and scenarios in each country or regional society

• Establishment of Asian standards on safety, environment, industrial products, etc.

• Information and observation networks• Common research facilities• Personnel training & Education system

© 2005 JST/CRDS 19

• Share the recognition of Environment and Energy Problems

• Form a consensus how these problems should be solved

Expectation for this Forum

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Asian Science and Technology Forum

1st (2005): Problems and Solutions in Environment and Energy in Asia (I)

2nd (2006): Problems and Solutions in Environment and Energy in Asia (II)

3rd (2007): Cooperative Research Framework for Environment and Energy in Asia

© 2005 JST/CRDS 21

Schedule for the Future• Asian Science and Technology Seminar :

Seminar for researchers in one of the Asian country in every year– 1st Seminar on environment and energy

• Early 2006• Theme: TBD.• Place: TBD.

• Preparation for joint researches • Designing Committee for Asian institute of energy

and environment research