solución t1 - gestacop 2015 ii

7/25/2019 Solucin t1 - Gestacop 2015 II

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SOLUCIN DE EVALUACIN T1

PREGUNTA 1

PERIODO 2015-1 (bolsas/m

A!O 1 2 " #

2015 15000 14500 15500 14860

1 2 3 4

a A $

% & 14591 181.71 '

& 0.6288 ) existe una correlacin sig

0.3954 ) Los ajustes no son mu r

b 2015-1 201

*es Es+e,ao 1

2. mes 14500 16045

#. mes 14860 16408

Tasa e aa+, 2. 10354

#. 10#24

I,e6ea+,7

+ E+8a+, e me9o a98se

R2 &

#on res$ecto al a%o anterior& la tasa 'e variaciin'ica (ue la 'eman'a va )a aumentar en 3.13*

1 2 3 4 5 6

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500+,x- / 111.6666666667x5 1948.3333333332x4 / 12748.3333333323x3 38581.666666663x2 / 52769.9999999942x

1


2/25

PERIODO 2015-1 (bolsas/mes

1 2 " # 5

15001 14503 15508 14875 160191 2 3 4 5


3/25

s PERIODO 2015-2 (bolsas/mes

5 3 1 2 " #

16000 15500 15863 16045 16226 16408

5 6 7 8 9 10

1 2 " #

14773 14954 15136 15318

1 2 3 4

nifcativa.

!ona"les.

5-2

Es+e,ao 2

14954

15318

"1"4

"0:4

$ara los meses 2 4&3.08* res$ectivamente. 1 2 3

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

+,x- 181.7142857143x 14590.666

0.3954275287

40099.9999999967

1 2 3

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

+,x- 181.7142857143x 1

0.3954275287


4/25

PERIODO 2015-2 (bolsas/mes

3 1 2 " #

15515 /10305 /118754 /414186 /10614006 7 8 9 10


5/25

5 3 Es+e,ao 1

16590 16772

11 12

5 3 Es+e,ao 2

15500 15681

5 6 2

2

2

4 5 6

666667

o 7

Linear ,o 7-

14400 14600 14800 15000 15200 15400 15600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

+,x- 0.0021760949x / 29.6346715328

0.3954275287

4 5 6

590.6666666667

o 7

Linear ,o 7-


6/25

5 3

/2299041 /445299711 12


7/25

15800 16000 16200

o 8

Linear ,o 8-


8/25


9/25

PREGUNTA 2Es+e,ao 1

a 0.10erio'o t t1

gosto 1 42400 45600

:e$tiem"re 2 45280

;ctu"re 3 40752

ao 10 19492

?unio 11 17542

*ESES (Los e ;elaoA!O Seembe O+8be Noembe D+embe E,eo


10/25

b Es+e,ao 2

0.20

erio'o,t- t =t "s,=t-

gosto 1 55400 45600

:e$tiem"re 2 45600 47560 /1960 1960

;ctu"re 3 47560 47168 392 392

ao 10 47233 47233 0 0

?unio 11 47233 47233 0 0S8ma -13"" 2#50

< 10 > 245.00

*ESES (Los e ;elaoA!O Seembe O+8be Noembe D+embe

= & 020 47560 47168 47246 47231= & 0"0 48540 47658 47923 47843

ronstico ,

t1-


11/25

2

>eb


12/25

0.30

"s,=t-@t =t@t erio'o,t- t

1 55400

3841600 0 0 2 45600

153664 0 0 3 48540

6147 0 0 4 47658

246 0 0 5 47923

10 0 0 6 47843

0 0 0 7 47867

0 0 0 8 47860

0 0 0 9 47862

0 0 0 10 47861

0 0 0 11 47862#00133 0 0

< 10

E,eo eb


13/25

Es+e,ao 2 0.10

erio'o t t1

gosto 1 42400 45600

:e$tiem"re 2 45600 45280

;ctu"re 3 45280 45312

ao 10 45309 45309

?unio 11 45309 45309

*ESES (Los e ;elaoA!O Seembe O+8be Noembe D+embe E,eo 15723

DA* 221227

15723

ronstico ,t1-

=t2


14/25

=t "s,=t- "s,=t-@t =t@t

45600

48540 /2940 2940 8643600 0 0

47658 882 882 777924 0 0

47923 /265 265 70013 0 0

47843 79 79 6301 0 0

47867 /24 24 567 0 0

47860 7 7 51 0 0

47862 /2 2 5 0 0

47861 1 1 0 0 0

47862 0 0 0 0 0

47862 0 0 0 0 0S8ma -2232 #200 B#B:#32 0 0

> 420.00

DA*245.00

420.00

ronstico ,

t1-

=t2


15/25

>eb


16/25


17/25

PREGUNTA "

*es 1 2 " #

1250 1400 1320 1420

a Pomeo *l Po,eao

, & "

erio'o,t- t =t

1 1 1250 02

2 2 1400 0"

" 3 1320 05

1 4 1420 1330 90.0

2 5 1500 1386 114.0" 6 1380 1440 /60.0

# 7 1730 1424 306.0

5 8 1620 1579 41.0

3 9 1480 1605 /125.0

10 1644 1572 72.0

: 11 1550 1590 /40.0

B 12 1420 1564 /144.2

S8ma 25":

N & B

S8aa+, E6o,e,+al

, & " = & 0.20

erio'o,t- t =t

1 1 1250

2 2 1400" 3 1320

1 4 1420 1624 /204.0

2 5 1500 1583 /83.2

" 6 1380 1567 /186.6

# 7 1730 1529 200.8

5 8 1620 1569 50.6

3 9 1480 1580 /99.5

10 1644 1560 84.4

: 11 1550 1576 /26.5B 12 1420 1571 /151.2

S8ma -#152

eman'a,:acos-

ronstico ,t1-

ronstico ,t1-

Ana +ormarelativamen


18/25

N & B

Res68esa7 Pom *l Po, S8a

DA* 110.24 12

b

*es 1 2 " #

1251 1387 1362 1376

erio'o,t- t =t

1 1 1250 1251 /1.2

2 2 1400 1387 12.6

" 3 1320 1362 /42.4

1 4 1420 1376 43.8

2 5 1500 1453 47.1

" 6 1380 1544 /164.3

# 7 1730 1600 130.2

5 8 1620 1605 15.4

3 9 1480 1584 /104.1

10 1644 1576 68.0

: 11 1550 1569 /19.5

B 12 1420 1411 8.6

S8ma 252

eman'a,:acos-

ronstico ,t1-

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

+,x- / 0.0455882353x6 1.8182503771x5 / 28.2164404223x4 213.2563759768x3 / 804.67215

0.6942384852


19/25

N & B

Pom *l Po, S8aa+,

DA* 110.24 120.74

+ *es 1 2

Po,s+o (Sa+os 1251 1387


20/25

5 3 : B 10

1500 1380 1730 1620 1480 1644

"s,=t- "s,=t-@t =t@t

90.0 8100.0 0.063 0.063

114.0 12996.0 0.076 0.07660.0 3600.0 0.043 /0.043

306.0 93636.0 0.177 0.177

41.0 1681.0 0.025 0.025

125.0 15625.0 0.084 /0.084

72.0 5184.0 0.044 0.044

40.0 1600.0 0.026 /0.026

144.2 20793.6 0.102 /0.102

BB22 13"2153 03 01

DA* 1102#

t 1700

"s,=t- "s,=t-@t =t@t

204.0 41616.0 29.3 /0.144

83.2 6922.2 4.6 /0.055

186.6 34804.6 25.2 /0.135

200.8 40301.4 23.3 0.116

50.6 2560.5 1.6 0.031

99.5 9904.0 6.7 /0.067

84.4 7120.8 4.3 0.051

26.5 701.8 0.5 /0.017151.2 22859.5 16.1 /0.106

10:3 133B0B 1115B -0""

=t2

=t2

e )acer (ue el $rome'io mvil res$on'a mBs rB$i'o a los cam"ios en la 'eman'a es 'te mBs $eso a las 'eman'as recientes (ue a las anteriores.


21/25

DA* 120#

a+,

.74

5 3 : B 10

1453 1544 1600 1605 1584 1576

"s,=t- "s,=t-@t =t@t

1.2 1.6 0.0 /0.001

12.6 158.5 0.1 0.009

42.4 1797.6 1.4 /0.032

43.8 1919.7 1.4 0.031

47.1 2214.9 1.5 0.031

164.3 26991.6 19.6 /0.119

130.2 16950.0 9.8 0.075

15.4 237.4 0.1 0.010

104.1 10832.9 7.3 /0.070

68.0 4624.0 2.8 0.041

19.5 379.7 0.2 /0.013

8.6 74.3 0.1 0.006

3010 3#22#5 #2: 00

=t2

. 8054x2 1427.0541272443x 442.0000000005

o 4

olnomial ,o 4-

=l mo'elo 'e $ronstico (ue 'e"erCa utili!ar el Derente 'e Eentas $$rximo a%o& serCa el 'e rome'io >vil on'era'o a (ue tiene el

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

+,x- / 0.0455882353x6 1.8182503771x5 /

0.6942384852


22/25

DA* 33

Rees, Pol,m+a 3.

66.77

"

1362

nali!an'o el > 'e los mo'elos $ro$uestos 'e $Eentas $ara $ronosticar las ventas $ara el $rximo

$oco ra!ona"le& su > esmenor (ue los $ro$uFltimo.


23/25


24/25

11 12

1569 1411

#

ra $ronosticar las ventas $ara elenor >.

9 10 11 12

28.2164404223x4 213.2563759768x3 / 804.6721548054x2 1427.0541272443x 442.0000000005

o 4

olnomial ,o 4-


25/25

2

onsticos (ue 'e"erCa utili!ar el Derente 'ea%o& el 'e egresin& a$esar 'e tener un 2

stos& $or lo tanto& 'e"erCa cam"iarlos $or este

solución t1 - gestacop 2015 ii

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