solar thermal solution for long-term energy demand in saudi arabia

Solar Thermal Solution For Long-Term Energy Demand In Saudi Arabia

MENASOL 2016

May 25, 2016

Ibrahim Babelli

5/24/2016Solar Thermal Solution For Long-Term Energy Demand In Saudi Arabia

Challenges Facing Saudi Arabia’s Power Sector

• Seasonality

• Legacy

• Best Practice

2

Seasonality: Maximum Daytime Load

SEC 2007 -2013, Team Analysis

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Seasonality: Minimum Nighttime Load


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Seasonality: Idle Capacity


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

45%

15%

Seasonality: Current Approach


1100%



2

1100%

65%



2

1

3

100%

65%

25%



2

1

3

4

100%

65%

25%

15%

0

50

100

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200

250

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450

0

10

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0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

Critical days Critical hours

Seasonality: Without SimplificationN

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Dr. Abdullah M. Al-Shehri, ECRA Governor: Saudi Arabia’s Regulatory Framework and its Impact on the Balance Between Economic Development & Environmental Protection, 2012

Nu

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0

50

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0

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0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

Critical days Critical hours

Seasonality: Without SimplificationN

um

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f C

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cal

Da

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Dr. Abdullah M. Al-Shehri, ECRA Governor: Saudi Arabia’s Regulatory Framework and its Impact on the Balance Between Economic Development & Environmental Protection, 2012

Nu

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rs5% of the installed generation capacity used for 48 hours/year



• Seasonality

• Legacy

• Best Practice

12

Source: World Bank, SEC Website, SWCC Website, News Articles, Arthur D. Little analysis

Legacy: SEC Monopoly (almost)

Reserve Margin (%)

Installed Capacity(GWp)



• Seasonality

• Legacy

• Best Practice

14

Best Practice: Advice from Industry

Best Practice: Advice from Consultants

Daily Electricity Demand in KSA

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

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36

38

09:0

0

10:0

0

11:0

0

12:0

0

13:0

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14:0

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15:0

0

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21:0

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Po

we

r (G

W)

Peak: 36 GW

Base: 25 GW

Peak: 31 GW

3 GW of Solar Power

Not So Best Practice: Reality

SEC 2010

August 1st, 2009

0

5000

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35000

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45000

01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00


Proposed Solution for Saudi Arabia’s Power Sector

• Go Solar

• Only Solar

• Deploy PV and CSP with Storage

21

Go Solar: North Solar Belt

Public Domain, Team Analysis

Go Solar: DNI and GHI

Public Domain, Team Analysis

Go Solar: Riyadh Solar Resource

K.A.CARE 2016



• Go Solar

• Only Solar


25

Only Solar

Only Solar: God Given Advantage



• Go Solar

• Only Solar


28

Deploy PV and CSP with Storage

• PV is a no-brainer: • Inexpensive• Load-following• Thermal coefficient is an issue• Storage remains costly



Cannot provide baseload



• CSP should be a no-brainer:• Comparatively expensive• Load-following• No thermal coefficient • Storage is mature and inexpensive• Significantly cheaper than nuclear




• CSP should be a no-brainer:• Comparatively expensive• Load-following• No thermal coefficient • Storage is mature and inexpensive• Significantly cheaper than nuclear


Baseload and load-following


Recommendations

• By 2050, 85% of installed capacity is solar

• Maintain 15% fossil-based capacity for system stability

• Negates the need for new fossil and nuclear power plants

• Inherently solves the seasonal variation challenge

• Requires leadership and bold decisions

• Saudi Arabia becomes global leader in solar technology

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Thank you