solar power in albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · solar power in alberta m.t....

Solar Power in Alberta

M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock

May 16th, 2012

Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Project Overview

• Objective: understand PV’s potential role in Albertan and Canadian environment

• Approach: iterative data collection and model construction; regular criticism from solar group

• Deliverable: flexible, realistic scenario modelling

Today• Introduction to Alberta

• Physical Properties - what’s here?

• Economic Properties - what can we do?

• Electrical Infrastructure - what’s in place?

• The Model

• Terminology

• Inputs & Outputs

• Preliminary Scenarios

AlbertaPhysical Properties

•Land use•Total area: 661,848 km2

•Agriculture area: 211,044 km2

AlbertaPhysical Properties

•Average mean daily irradiance for tilted surfaces

•AB & SK highest irradiance in Canada,

•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•AB human energy use totally dominated by agriculture (6 TW in AB!)

AlbertaEconomic Properties

•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)

•Four commitment levels:•GDP: ??•Provincial budget: ??•Oil & gas investments: ??

• Individual household: ??



•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: ??•Oil & gas investments: ??




•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: ??




•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)




•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)

• Individual household: 60 thousand?

AlbertaElectrical Infrastructure

•Transmission (blue), Generation (red)

•21,000 km

•$106 per km installed•21 billion replacement cost•13.8 GW nameplate capacity

•12.5 GW proposed

Coal: 6.2 GWNG: 5.4 GWHydro: 0.9 GW

Wind: 0.9 GWBiomass: 0.4 GWWaste : 0.06 GW

Today• Introduction to Alberta

• Physical Properties - what’s here?

• Economic Properties - what can we do?

• Electrical Infrastructure - what’s in place?

• The Model

• Terminology

• Inputs & Outputs

• Preliminary Scenarios

TerminologyInternal Rate of Return

Purchase Bond

Collect Interest

Time

TerminologyInternal Rate of Return

•Economic metric for evaluating projects

•Annualized compound return rate that sets net present value of project cash flows to zero

•Used to screen projects; if IRR is not above minimum acceptable rate of return, project does not go forward

•Shell IRRs; 10% to 30%

Time

Construction

Decommissioning

Revenue

Operations

Purchase Bond

Collect Interest

Time

TerminologyEnergy Return on Investment

•Physical metric for evaluating technologies and projects

•EROI must be > 1

ModelInputs & Outputs

Model

cm2/kWh

km2/MWh

EROI

IRR

¢/kWh

Irradiance: MWh/m2

Panel Lifetime

Panel Efficiency

kWh/Wp

$/Wp

¢/kWh Subsidy

Transmission Costs

W/m2

ScenariosFull Industrial Effort

•25 billion•Utility scale PV ~ $5/Wp•5 GWp nameplate, ~ 120 km2

(57 km2 panel area, x2 for spacing & infrastructure, no transmission lines, no transmission losses)

•Expected output 1.44 GW(12 W m-2, similar to other utility scale deployments worldwide, SEGS III-VII 10.1 W m-1, 10% of current AB)

• IRR of 12% requires 25 ¢/kWh(2012 dollars, no depreciation, operating or disposal)

SEGS III-VII

Scenarios Full Household Effort

•Taschuk rooftop•168 m2

•Heliene 72m (300 Wp, $2.93/Wp, 16%, 2 m2, 80% 25 year warranty, rooftop install, free grad student labor)

•Edmonton: 4.5 GJ m-2 a-1

•18 W m-2 average, 3 kW total•Costs 74k; 657 MWh produced•11.2 ¢/kWh; $250 per month •EROI: 3.71

Solar Power in Alberta


May 16th, 2012


Solar Power in Alberta:Auxiliary Slides


March 16th, 2012


AlbertaNatural Gas

•Area: 661,848 km2

•Agriculture area: 211,044 km2

• crop albedo: 0.2

• • fds

•

ScenariosFour Commitment Levels

•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial Budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)

• Individual household: 60 thousand?

ScenariosAlberta Total Effort

•180 Billion•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•144 W m-2 average incident, 29 W m-2 for Si cell

• 13.8 GW nameplate by solar?• 476 km2

•≈30 billion for panels ($2/Wp)• balance of system, land, transmission lines, grid upgrades?

ScenariosSun Party wins in 2016

•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•144 W m-2 average incident, 29 W m-2 for Si cell

• 13.8 GW nameplate by solar?• 476 km2

•≈30 billion for panels ($2/Wp)• balance of system, land, transmission lines, grid upgrades?

Solar Power in Alberta:Human Scale


March 16th, 2012


Human ScaleAverage Power

Public Domain

1.1 kW350 W

KkmdSpreeTom

88 W


Public Domain

900 kW

40 kW


Public Domain

570 MW


18 GW

Rehman

Human ScaleEnergy Use

• China: 1 kW / person

• World: 2 kW / person

• Japan: 5 kW / person

• Britain: 8 kW / person

• Canada: 11 kW / person

Data: MacKay (2009) Sustainable Energy - without the hot air

Defence0.2

Stuff2.5

Food0.6

Heating1.5

Lighting0.2

Jet Flights1.3Gadgets

0.2

Car1.7

Human ScaleCanadian Energy Use

Defence0.2

Stuff2.5

Food0.6

Heating1.5

Lighting0.2

Jet Flights1.3Gadgets

0.2

Car1.7

Public Domain

11 kW

Human ScaleEnergy Use and Life Expectancy






Data: 2008, World Bank

Human ScaleEnergy Use and Infant Mortality

Data: 2008, World Bank






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