solar disruption
TRANSCRIPT
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Solar disruptionThe number 1 power source
Bruce Douglas Chief Operating Officer, SolarPower EuropeChairman, Global Solar Council
November 2016
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What is SolarPower Europe?
• The new EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association)
• A member led association representing organisations active along the whole value chain
• Shapes the regulatory environment and enhances business opportunities
Over 200 members including the following leading companies:
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Founding Association Members
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1. Cheapest power source in many regions2. Highly versatile3. Fast deployment4. Significant local socio-economic benefits5. Hedge against future electricity price
increase: cost of MW/h known in advance and fixed for 20 years
6. Clean (locally and globally)
SOLAR DISRUPTION
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1. Tipping point?
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TIPPING POINT - INVESTMENTS
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TIPPING POINT – GROWTH OF RENEWABLES
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POWER GENERATION CAPACITIES ADDED IN THE EU 28 IN 2015
Source: EWEA, ESTELA, SOLARPOWER EUROPE
TIPPING POINT - INSTALLATIONS
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9US EIA
TIPPING POINT – ENERGY CONSUMPTION
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EMERGING MARKETS
EVOLUTION OF EUROPEAN ANNUAL PV GRID CONNECTIONS VS. GLOBAL 2010 - 2015
© SolarPower Europe 2016
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11Global Market Outlook 2016-2020
SUNNY 5-YEAR FORECAST FOR MOST MARKETS
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12Carbon Tracker
CHEAPER THAN GAS & COAL
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2. Cost of energy
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VIRTUOUS PRICE CIRCLE
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15BNEF
COST REDUCTION OF PV MODULES
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16Global Market Outlook 2016-2020
SOLAR INCREASINGLY COST-COMPETITIVE – EVEN WITH ONSHORE WIND
REDUCTION IN LCOE – COMPARED TO WIND (1)
Location $/MWhUS 38Dubai 29Mexico 35Abu Dhabi 24Chile 29Argentina 59
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REDUCTION IN LCOE – COMPARED TO WIND (2)
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Large-scale solar is now cost-competitive with other technologies…
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COST REDUCTIONS - 2025
IRENA – Global weighted average cost – PV installed
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COST REDUCTIONS - 2050
Source: AGORA Energiwende
A combination of price competition, long-term contracts, good resources and financial de-risking measures creates deployment opportunities in
newer markets and at lower costs.
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3. #1 Power Source
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22Global Market Outlook 2016-2020
GROWTH to 2020 – Annual global market
UNCERTAINTY IN POLICY SUPPORT MEANS THE FORECAST FOR ANNUAL INSTALLATIONS IN 2020 RANGES FROM 62 TO 120 GW !
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23Global Market Outlook 2016-2020
IF MARKET DESIGN IS SET CORRECTLY, SOLAR AS LOWESTCOST RES COULD REACH 15% SHARE IN EU BY 2030
GROWTH to 2030 – EU electricity contribution
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ENERGY STORAGE: GROWTH to 2030
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GROWTH to 2040 - High global penetration levels
GLOBAL INSTALLATIONS COULD REACH 5000 GW BY 2040 WHICH WOULD PROVIDE 15% OF GLOBAL ELECTRICITY
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26IEA
GROWTH to 2050 – Cumulative global scenario
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#1 POWER SOURCE
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