Societal Security

IR 3001 Week 5 Lecture

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict

Sudan, Darfur Region:

Circumstances-

•recent drought, dwindling resources

•historic ethnic competition between the Masalit/Fur and Arabs

•1999 clashes which saw Arabs killed

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict

Rwanda/Burundi (1994/1996-)

Circumstances-

•Historic tensions between Tutsi 14% and Hutu 85% (Rwanda)

•Assassination of presidents in crash

•Radical army exiled in Uganda

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict

Kosovo (1999-)

Circumstances-

•10 years of conflict in former Yugoslavia

•Serbian ultra-nationalist in power

•‘ethnically cleansing’ Kosovo by Yugoslav troops

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict

East Timor (1975-1999?)

Circumstances-

•1975 Indonesian invasion after Portugal leave

•Super Power politics

•Ethnic violence on eve of independence

What do we mean by civil wars?

• Henderson et al: ‘A civil war is a sustained, violent conflict between the military forces of s a state and insurgent forces comprised mainly of citizens (or residents) of the state.’

• Types of domestic conflict:– Turmoil– Conspiracy– Internal war– Civil war

Civil wars as nationalist conflicts

• What are the options for nationalist movements?– Greater autonomy– Secession (independence)– Irredentism

• Why do some groups wish to go further than greater autonomy?

Why do civil wars occur?

• Proposition 1: The presence of semi-democracy increases the likelihood of conflict.

• Proposition 2: the greater the level of economic development, the lower its likelihood of conflict.

• Proposition 3: the larger a state’s level of military spending, the less chance of conflict.

• Proposition 4: the greater the cultural polarisation, the greater chance of conflict.

• Proposition 5: the presence of ethnic political groups increases the chance of conflict.

Why do civil wars occur?

• Proposition 1: The presence of semi-democracy increases the likelihood of conflict.

• Proposition 2: the greater the level of economic development, the lower its likelihood of conflict.

• Proposition 3: the larger a state’s level of military spending, the greater chance of conflict.

The nature of conflict

• Let us move from the ‘why’ to the ‘how’

– Has the nature of conflict changed over time?

– Yes and no

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict: Questions

• What are ‘old’ wars?

• According to Mary Kaldor, what are ‘new’ wars?

• What are their causes and effects?

• What should be the response of international community?

• Does the ‘new’ war hypothesis help us understand security today?

What are old wars?

• Kaldor defines an Old War as:– Conflict over territory and sovereignty– Conflict between states.– Conflict had ‘rules’– Conflict was exclusive

• Examples: Napoleonic Wars, Crimean War, First World War, Second World War, Falklands War

What are ‘new’ wars?

• ‘New Wars’ are a result of the ‘fragmentation and integration, homogenisation and diversification’ that followed the end of the Cold War.

Why ‘new’ wars?

• Causes– End of the Cold War– Globalisation– Weak or failed states– Employment of technology

What are ‘new’ wars?

• Defining new wars1. Not ideological, but identity conflicts

2. Non-Combatants as targets

3. Inclusive conflict

4. Role of Media

What are ‘new’ wars?

• Tactics of New Warriors:– [Ethnic] Cleansing– Solidification of identities– Criminality of conflict– Privatisation of non-state actors

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict

Rwanda/Burundi (1994/1996-)

Circumstances-

•Historic tensions between Tutsi 14% and Hutu 85% (Rwanda)

•Assassination of presidents in crash

•Radical army exiled in Uganda

Why are civil wars important for international security?

Local Wars, Global Casualties• Terrorism• Economic ruin• Famine• Immigration• Arms Race• No-Go Areas• Environmental Damage• Global Civil Society

Regional Security and IO’s

• What is the role of international organisations in maintaining security and what challenges do they face?

• Theoretical review– Liberal institutionalism– Neo-liberal institutionalism

Regional Security and IO’s

• But for domestic security we should look at common security

• Changing role of organisations– Regional organisations today are aimed at settling intra-

regional disputes.– Examples:

• NATO, OSCE, EU

• OAU

• ASEAN

Regional Security and IO’s

• What right do regional organisation have to intervene in domestic conflicts?

• Two views– Restrictionists– Counter-restrictionists (Kaldor)

What should be the response of international community?

• Cosmopolitanism or neo-colonialism?– a ‘new kind of soldier-cum-policeman’– Rapid reaction– Peace-keepers as the norm

• Can we trust the powers-that-be to prevent conflict, when it may not be in their ‘interest’?

Does the ‘new’ war hypothesis help us understand security today?

• Problems:– Neo-colonialism?– Categorisation?– ‘New’ wars?

• However:– Highlights brutality of conflicts– Global dimension of area conflicts

Regional Security and IO’s

• What can organisations do other than intervene militarily?– Non-forcible humanitarian intervention

• Role for regional organisations?– Yes– But, there are political problems

The End