SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

SocialProtec,onFromProtec,ontoProduc,on

SynergiesbetweenSocialProtec,onandAgriculture:Whatistheevidencesofar?

SilvioDaidone

MasterCourseinPublicPolicy&HumanDevelopmentMaastricht,March29,2017

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

Background• Aroundtheworld,1Bpoorpeopleand780Mhungry• ConcentratedinSSA,livinginruralareas,theirlivelihoodsdependinglargelyonagriculture• CoordinatedandcoherentagriculturalandsocialprotecAonpoliciesandprogramstobreaktheintergeneraAonaltransmissionofpoverty• Aginterven,onsaddresssomeoftheconstraintslimiAngaccesstonaturalresources,producAveinputs,financialandadvisoryservicesandmarkets•  SPprovidesliquiditytoinvestmoreAmeandresourcesinag,increaseparAcipaAoninsocialnetworksandbeHermanagerisks

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

Whatiscoherence?•  TheFrameworkforAnalysisandAcAon(FAA)inGavrilovicetal.(2016)definescoherenceas:

“asystema(cpromo(onofcomplementaryandconsistentpoliciesandprogramsacrosssectors,therebycrea(ngsynergiestocombatruralpovertyandfoodinsecuritymoreeffec(vely”•  Coherencetoavoid/minimizeconflicAnginteracAonsbetweenpolicies/programs•  Coherencecanbepursuedhorizontally(acrossministries/agencies)orverAcally(acrossdifferentlevelsofgovernment)•  CoherenceasaresultofchanceorthroughdeliberatecoordinatedacAonsbetweenstakeholders

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

WhyAgandSPcanbemoreeffec,vewhenworkingtogether?

1.  NeitheragriculturenorsocialprotecAonalonecanaddressallconstraintsfacedbypoorruralhouseholds

2.  CoherenceavoidspotenAalharm

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

Literaturereviewobjec,vesØ TogatherandsystemaAzeevidenceonthevalueaddedofcoordinatedandcoherentsocialprotecAon(SP)andagriculturalintervenAons(AI);

Ø ToassesswhetheritispossibletoidenAfywhichtypeofcombinedintervenAonshavehadthegreatestimpactswithindifferentcontexts;

Ø Tocontributetodefiningafutureevidence-generaAonagendabyidenAfyingcriAcalknowledgegaps;

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Typologyofcombinedinterven,onsaspertheliteraturesurvey

a.   SustainableLivelihoodPrograms(SLP):singleprogramswithmulAplecomponentsincludingbothagriculturalandsocialprotecAonintervenAons;

b.   ComplementaryPrograms(CP):programsfromthetwosectorsthataredesignedand/orimplementedinasomewhatcoordinatedand/oralignedmanner;

c.   Overlappingprogrammes(OP):programsfrombothsectorswithoutalignmentorcoordinaAonwhichbeneficiariescanparAallyoverlapattheindividual/householdand/oratgeographical/communitylevelonlyinanunplannedmanner

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Examplesofcombinedinterven,ons

SustainableLivelihoodProgrammes:CFPRIandIIandFSUP-Bangladesh;GraduaAonintoSustainablelivelihoods(India(2),Pakistan,Ethiopia,Ghana,HondurasandPeru)ComplementaryProgrammes:IndiraKranAPathan(IKP)(India),P-135II(Vietnam),PNSP+OFSP/HABP(Ethiopia),CGP+LFSSP(Lesotho);HakuWiñay(Peru),Atencionacrisis+investmentgrantorvocaAonaltraining(Nicaragua).OverlappingProgrammes:Oportunidades+Procampo(Mexico);BolsaFamilia+ruralcredit(Brazil);CCT+foodsecurityandagriculturaldevelopment(ElSalvador)

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TheBRACmodel

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

Theoryofchange

Ref:Tirivayietal.(2013)

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SearchProtocol:basedonexperts’feedbackdatabasesearchandhand-search•  a.)PopulaAonofinterest:ruralpoorandvulnerablepopulaAonlivinginLaAn

AmericaandtheCaribbean,Asia,AfricaandEasternEurope•  b.1)AgricultureintervenAons:ruraldevelopment,accesstomarkets,natural

resourcesmanagement,distribuAonof(improved)seeds,ferAlizersubsidies(vouchers),extensionservices,subsidizedcredit,investmentgrants,asset(livestock)transfers,andhomesteadgardening

•  b.2)SocialprotecAonintervenAons:socialcashtransfers(includingCCTs,CTsandsocialpensions)andpublicworks,aswellasotherbroadcategoriesthatinsomecontextsarenotclassifiedassocialprotecAonsuchasassettransfers,home-grownschoolfeedingprogrammes,microfinance,andweather-basedcropinsurance;

•  Outcomesofinterest:income,expenditure/consumpAon,assetorwealthindex,poverty,purchaseanduseofinputssuchasferAlizers,investmentinproducAveassetsincludinglandandlivestock,labourmarketparAcipaAonandoccupaAonalchoices,hoursofwork,privatetransfers,sourcesofincome,foodsecurityandindicatorsforinvolvementinsocialnetworksandsocialparAcipaAon

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Criteriaforselec,on

•  Onlypapersand/orevaluaAonreportsproducedajer1990;

•  OnlypaperswriHeninEnglish,Spanish,PortugueseandFrench;

•  UsearobustimpactevaluaAonmethodology,basedonanadequateidenAficaAonstrategy,includingthedefiniAonofaclearcomparisongroupandcounterfactual.

•  Useofexperimental(randomizedcontroltrials),usuallyseenintheliteratureasthegold-standardamongtheevaluaAontechniques,andnon-experimentaldesigns(e.g.differences-in-differences,propensityscorematching,regressiondisconAnuitydesign,generalizedpropensityscoreandinstrumentalvariables)

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Totalnumberofevalua,onpapers/reportsofcombinedprograms

year Freq. %2009 2 52010 2 52011 1 32012 7 192013 1 32014 5 14

2015/6 19 51Total 37 100

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Evalua,onpapersbyregion:AsiaCountry PROGRAMMES:Papersand/orReports N

%

ASIA 17 46

Bangladesh

CFPRPhase1(SLP):Ahmedetal.(2009);Emranetal.(2014);Razaetal.(2012);Krishnaetal.(2010);Mishaetal.(2014);CFPRPhase2(SLP):Raza&Ara(2012);Bandieraetal.(2013);CLPPhase1(SLP+CP):HTPSELimited(2011)ER+(SLP+CP):Hernandezetal.(2015);FSUP(SLP):BDI(2012)SHOUHARDO(CP):Smithetal.(2011)

12

32

India

Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015);Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Bauchetetal.(2015);IndiraKran,Patham–IKP–(CP):Prennushi&Gupta(2014)

3

8

Pakistan Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015) 1

3

Vietnam P-135II(CP):IRC(2012) 1 3

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Evalua,onpapersbyregion:LAC Country PROGRAMMES:Papersand/orReports N %

LAC

11 29.7

Peru

Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015);JuntosandSierraSur(OP):Aldanaetal.(2016);JuntosandRuralcredit(OP):DelPozo(2014);JuntosandWakuWiñay(CP):EscobalandPonce(2015)

4

10.8

Brazil BolsaFamiliaandPRONAF(OP):Garciaetal.(2016) 1 2.7 Chile IEFandFosis’sproduc,vesupport(CP):Fernandezetal.(2016) 1 2.7

Colombia FamiliasenAcciónandOportunidadesRurales(CP/OP):Moya(2016) 1

2.7

Honduras Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015) 1

2.7

Mexico OportunidadesandPROCAMPO(OP):Naudeetal.(2016) 1 2.7 Nicaragua

AtencionaCrisisandcomplementaryprogrammes(CP):Macoursetal.(2012)

1

2.7

ElSalvador ComunidadesSolidariasRuralesandruraldevelopmentinterven,ons(OP):DeSanfeliúetal.(2016) 1

2.7

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

Evalua,onpapersbyregion:SSA Country PROGRAMMES:Papersand/orReports N %

AFRICA

9 24

Ethiopia

Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015);PSNP+OFSP/HASP(CP):Gilliganetal.(2009);HoddinoHetal.(2012);Negaetal.(2010)

4

11

Uganda

Women'sIncomeGenera,onSupport–WINGS(SLP):BlaHmanetal.(2014)

1 2.7

Ghana Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015) 1

2.7

Lesotho

ChildGrantProgrammeandLinkingFoodSecurityandSocialProtec,on(CP):Dewbreetal.(2015)

1

2.7

Malawi

SocialCashTransferProgrammeandFarmInputSubsidyProgramme:Paceetal.(2016)

1 2.7 Burkina Faso

LocalEduca,onAssistanceandProcurementproject(LEAP):integra,nglocalprocurementintoalongstandingschoolfeedingprogramme:Uptonetal.(2012) 1 2.7

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Keyfeaturesofthecombinedprogramsevaluatedandmethodologies

q StrongassociaAonbetweenregionsandtheprevalenceofcertaincategoriesofprogrammesintheevaluaAonsaswellaswithregardtothetypeofinstrumentsusedbythedifferentprogrammes:

Ø  Asia:SLPdesign–focusonlivestocktransfersandextensionservices(training)coupledwithconsumpAonsupport(cashtransfers);coachingandlinkswithothersocialservices.Bangladeshover-represented.

Ø LaAnAmerica:CCTprogramme+extensionservicesandruralcredit+somelivelihoodintervenAons.Peruover-represented.

Ø Africa:Morebalanced–CP(publicworks+agriculturalintervenAons),SLPpilotsandSCT+livelihoods.Ethiopiaover-represented.

q GraduaAonintoSustainablelivelihood–Largeevidencebaseacrossregions.

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

Keyfeaturesofthecombinedprogramsevaluatedandmethodologies

Ø Unliketheliteratureonsingleprogrammes,parAcularlyonSPprogrammes,therearenotmuchimpactevaluaitonofcombinedprogrammes;

Ø DifficulAesinthecoordinaAonalsoaffecttheevaluaAondesign–whereasSLPhadexperimentaldesigns,mostCPandOPhasquasi-experimentaldesign;

Ø SynergieswereparAcularlydifficulttomeasureacrossdesigns(SPL–novarietyindesignacrosstreatedgroups(armtreatments);CPandOP–rarelyonepuretreatedgroupbothintervenAons.

Ø FocusonAIandSPthatoverlapatthehouseholdlevelregardlessoftheirnature:SLP,CPorOP–InterestintheAveragetreatmenteffectonthetreated(ATT)and/orIntenAontotreat(ITT).

Ø Notmuchoneffectsonnon-beneficiaries–onlyoneligiblenon-beneficiarywhenspillovereffectsareassessed.Clearlylinkedwiththetypeofmethodologieschosenandcostofsurveys.

Ø NotCGEand/orLEWIE.Onex-anteCGE,seeLevyandRobinson(2014).

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Methodologyusedintheevalua,onsMethodology N Randomizedcontroltrial(Experimentalevalua,ons) 12 Differencesindifferences 5 Differencesindifferenceswithpropensityscorematchingwith[non-parametricmethods:e.g.nearestneighbor,kernel]

6

Differencesindifferenceswithpropensityscorematching(parametricmethod:inverseprobabilityweigh,ng)

2

Differencesindifferenceswithpropensityscorematching(parametricandnon-parametricmethods)andKlein-VellaHeteroscedas,city-BasedIden,fica,on.

1

Paneldata:fixedeffectsandrandomeffects 1 Paneldata:Fixedeffectswithpropensityscorematching 1 SingledifferenceusingGeneralizedPropensityScore(dosage) 1 SingleDifferenceanddifference-in-differencesbasedonretrospec,veques,ons

2

SingleDifferencewithpropensityscorematching 4 SingleDifference(pooleddata):GeneralizedPropensityscorematching(crosssec,on)–InverseProbabilityWeigh,ng(parametric)

1

SingleDifference(treatment:differententrycohorts) 1 Total 37

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Outcomesassessedintheevalua,ons N % Income,consump,onorexpenditures 30 81 Assets 28 76 Produc,veAssets 28 76 Foodsecurityandnutri,on 23 62 Produc,vity 21 57 Savings 18 49 Occupa,on 17 46 Credit 16 43 Communitypar,cipa,on 13 35 Poverty 5 14 Agriculturalinputs 7 19

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Investmentinland:ownedland,rentedlandandcul,vatedland§ Overall,IEsshowanincreaseinaccesstoand/oruAlizaAonofland:

Ø ForSLP,theevidencesuggeststhatinthecaseofBangladesh(e.g.CFPRPhase1and2andFSUP)partofthereturnyieldedbythelivestock-basedincomegenera(ngac(vi(eshasbeeninvestedinusingmoreland,eitherfrompurchasesorren(ng.

Ø ForCPthereisevidenceofmorelandu(liza(oninLesothowiththecombina(onoftheLFSSPPtotheCGPandinIndia,theIKPprogrammehadledtoanincreaseintheareaofcul(vatedlandbythepoorest.

Ø ForOP,overlapofruralcreditandtheCCTprogrammeJuntosInPeruseemtohaveincreasedlandu(liza(on.

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Investmentinproduc,veassets,sustainabilityandimpactsonproduc,on§  Overall,IEsshowposiAveimpactsonassetaccumulaAon,includingbothproducAveanddurableassets.

Ø SLP:ImpactsarehigherforbePer-offbeneficiaries;strongerimpactsonassetaccumula(onwereobservedfortheEthiopiapilotwheretheassettransferwascombinedwiththeconsump(onsupportofthePNSP.

Ø CP:Similarevidencewasalsofoundintheevalua(onsofcombina(onbetweenPSNPandOFSP/HABPinEthiopia.

Ø ForotherCPandevensomeOP,thereisevidencethatagriculturalinterven(onssuchasextensionservicesandaccesstobePertechnologyarelikelytotriggersomesynergis(ceffectswhencombinedcashtransfersorpublicworksprogrammesintermsofassetaccumula(onandadop(onofnewtechnologies.Posi(veimpactswereobservedfortheIKPinIndia;theP-135inVietnam;theSierraSurandJuntosandRuralcreditandJuntosinPeru;CSRandEPinElSalvador;andfortheinterac(onbetweenthecoverageofBolsaFamiliaandPRONAFinBrazil.

Ø However,mixedevidencefortheextenttowhichinvestmentsinproduc(veassetsaretranslatedintohigherproduc(onandhigherbusinessrevenue

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Accesstocreditandsavings•  OverallIEsshowposiAveimpactsonsavingsandaccesstoformalcredit.

•  SLP:Posi(veimpactsonsavings,butaPenua(oninthelong-run.Posi(veimpactsoncreditaccessand/orashi\awayfrominformalloanstowardsformalones.Anoteofcau(onreferstothefactthatposi(veimpactonfinancialinclusionseemtoberestrictedtobePer-offpar(cipants.

•  Evalua(onsofCPalsoshowposi(veimpactsonaccesstocreditforbeneficiariessuchasinthecaseofthecombina(onofthePSNPandtheOFSPinEthiopia.

•  EveninthecontextofOPtherehasbeensomeposi(veimpacts:inElSalvador,par(cipa(ngorhavingpar(cipatedintheCCTprogrammefacilitatedaccesstocredit,mostlyformal.

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Diversifyingeconomicac,vi,esandsourcesofincome

q OverallIEsshowsomediversificaAonofeconomicacAviAeswithinagriculture(includinghomesteadgardensandlivestockraising),butalsoashijawayfromagriculturetowardsnon-farmbusiness.

Ø InmanyoftheSLP,partofthelivestockrevenuehasbeenusedtofosterhighreturncropproduc(on(FSUPinBangladesh),butnotnecessarilynon-farmbusiness.

Ø Diversifica(onintonon-farmbusinesswasmorecommonintheevalua(onofprogrammeswhoseobjec(vewasclearlytoenablevulnerablehouseholdstohaveanon-farmsourceofincomesuchasinNicaragua(CCT+investmentgrant)andUganda(WINGS),butthistypeofimpactwasalsofoundinthecaseofthecombina(onofPSNPandOFSPinEthiopia(aswellasforthePSNPonly),andintheER+inBangladesh.

Ø InthecaseofsomeCPandOP,theeconomicdiversifica(onwaspartofthecomplementaryagriculturalprogramme,usuallyasextensiveservicesandimpliedtheintroduc(onofnewcrops.

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Nega,vecopingstrategies

q Evidenceonchildworkismixed•  BolsaFamiliainBrazilseemstobeassociatedwithadecreaseinchildwork,theinterac(onbetweenBolsaFamiliaandruralcreditgoesinthesamedirec(on,howeverinLesothothecombinedinterven(onsseemstohaveledtoanincreaseinchildrenengagementinfarmingac(vi(es,par(cularlyforgirls.•  Asforbeggingandotherundesirableformsofoccupa(on,theevalua(onoftheCFPR1inBangladeshshowsreduc(onsintheirprevalence,butwithaPenuatedeffectsinthelongterm.•  Assetdeple(onseemstobesuccessfullyavoidedinSLP,morelikelyduetotheconsump(onsupportcomponent,althoughnoevalua(onhasdisentangleditseffect.

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Shilsinlaboralloca,on

q Combinedprogrammesdonotgeneratedependencybutinstead,tendtosAmulatelabourforceparAcipaAonamongbeneficiaries.

Ø SLPincreasesthepropor(onoffarmself-employment,par(cularlyamongwomen,astheyarethecorebeneficiariesoftheassettransfers..Mostofthisincreaseinfarmself-employmentcomesattheexpenseof(mespentinwagelabour,buttheoverallbalancedoesnotsuggestreduc(oninworkintensity.

Ø Thisisalsoobservedamonginterven(onsthataimtoenableruralhouseholdstodiversifytheirincomesbyengaginginnon-farmac(vi(essuchasinUganda(WINGS)andNicaraguaCCTplusinvestmentgrantfornon-farmbusiness.

Ø SimilarimpactswerealsofoundforCPsuchasthePSNPplusOFSPinEthiopiaandthecombina(onoftheLFSSPPwiththeCGPinLesotho.

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Impactonconsump,on,expenditureandincome

q OveralltheIEsshowposiAveimpactsonincome,totalexpenditureandtotalandpercapitafoodexpenditure.ThelaHerseemstohaveledtoimprovementsinfoodsecurity.

Ø SLPandCP,mainlyinAsiaandinAfricashowveryposi(veimpactinallthesedimensions.IntheSLPpar(cularlyforthepoorestquin(les.

Ø InLa?nAmericatheresultsseemmoremixedwithsomecombina(onsfailingtoimproveincomes(SierraSurandJuntos)and/orfoodsecurityindicators(FamiliasenAcciónandOportunidadesRurales),whereasothersshowposi(veimpactsonpercapitaincome(BolsaFamiliaandPRONAFandJuntosandHakuWiñay)andfoodsecurityindicators(CCTplusinvestmentgrantinNicaraguaandCCTplusruraldevelopmentinElSalvador).

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

Posi,veresults:summaryØ InvestmentinproducAveassets;Ø Savingsandaccesstoformalcredit;Ø Diversifyingsourcesofincometowardsmorestable,permanentandprofitablesources;Ø Shijtowardsself-employment,parAcularlyforwomen,and/orshijtowardsmoreprofitableanddecentemployment;Ø Foodsecurity;Ø Income,consumpAonandexpenditurelevels;andØ PovertyreducAon.

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MixedresultsØ InvestmentonproducAveassetsandfinancialinclusionweremuchlargerorrestrictedtothebeHer-offbeneficiaries.ReachingthepoorestofthepoorsAllseemschallengingevenwithinthecontextofSLP;

Ø TheextenttowhichhigherinvestmentleadstolongtermproducAvityandincomegains,parAcularlyforCPprogrammesinLaAnAmerica;

Ø AdequacyofstandardagriculturalextensionservicesforthetargetedpopulaAonofsocialassistanceprogrammes;

Ø Trade-offbetweenwagelabourandself-employmentasasustainablelocaldevelopmentstrategy;

Ø Impactonchildlabour;Ø DirecAonandscaleofspillovereffects;Ø Effectsofscaling-up.Ø SustainabilityoftheresultsoverAme.

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Whichtypeofcombinedinterven,onshavehadthegreatestimpacts?

q AtthisstageitisdifficulttoassessitduetotheassociaAonbetweengroupsofintervenAonsandrobustnessofevaluaAondesigns…

Ø SLPtendtobeexperimentalorhavemorerobustquasi-experimentaldesign;

Ø However,mostSLPevaluaAonswithexperimentaldesigndidnotdisentanglethecontribuAonofeachcomponentandmeasuringsynergies.

Ø CPandOPhadlessrobustevaluaAondesignandwereoverrepresentedamongLAC,parAcularly,amongCCTpluscashtransfers(excepAon:Macoursetal.(2012))

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Evalua,ongapsØ MorerobustevaluaAonofCPsandOPswithaclearsesngtomeasuresynergiesandsAllfocusingonindividual/householdoutcomes;

Ø MoreevaluaAonsofcombinedintervenAonsonthecommunityandlocalmarkets(LEWIEmodels)

Ø Accesstomarketshavebeenunder-evaluated.Ø ImpactevaluaAonsofprogrammesthatcombinelocalpurchaseswithfoodassistance,includingHGSFiniAaAves.

Ø Cost-benefitanalysisaremissinginmostevaluaAons

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