Social Media in Foreign Elections

Shane Abinette

Three CountriesArmenia’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections

Korea’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections

France’s 2012 Presidential Election

Armenia’s 2012 Elections

7-10% on Facebook18% on other Social Media sites87% rely on TV for political news

Armenian Voters Mobilized? Nope.

Minimal engagement by politicians with votersPresidential election is more popularPolitical News Source

87% TV11% online

GDP per capita = $5,400

Social Media’s RoleIditord.org : Voter fraud election report system

Site went down while polls were open, minimal reports of fraud

Government? Poor Internet Service?

Largest social media event during election150 people hospitalized after balloons exploded at political rally

South Korea’s 2012 Election

Polls showed Democratic United (Liberal) and Saenuri (Conservative) Parties tied80% of internet users favored LiberalsTop 5 twitters were Liberal Politicians. Can Twitter decide an election? Voter Mobilization Online?

Election ResultsConservatives: -24 seatsLiberals: +38 seatsFinal Score: 152 Conservatives and 127 LiberalsMedia Analysts and Polls predicted a closer outcomeTwitter suggested Liberals may win

Presidential ElectionDecemeber 2012Polls are very closeLiberal Candidate ahead on TwitterRound two!

France75% on the web25 of 77 Million have Facebook Accounts74% Political News from TV40% Political News from the Internet

France’s Social Media Election

Every candidate had a Twitter and Facebook (for the first time)Hollande Twitter count: 224,000Sarkozy Twitter count: 157,000Sarkozy Lost

Buzz Doesn’t Make You a Winner

Social Media as a Predictor

Sarkozy’s Plate: Eurozone Debt Crisis and 2008 Recession

11th Executive to lose office in Europe

Destined to lose?

ConclusionsSocial media’s election prediction abilities are questionable

Liberals seem to be more active on the internet

Referenceshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2009/06/17/DI2009061702232.html http://blogs.salesforce.com/strategy/2012/05/whats-the-impact-of-social-media-on-the-french-presidential-elections.htmlhttp://articles.cnn.com/2012-04-19/opinion/opinion_france-election-social_1_social-media-social-tv-twitter/2?_s=PM:OPINIONhttp://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/07/16/social-media-and-armenias-2012-parliamentary-elections/http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/09/net-us-korea-politics-socialmedia-idUSBRE8380BI20120409http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2012/04/20124110199508413.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2012/04/12/odds-ends-a-day-after-the-election/