social media in 2013 italian elections
DESCRIPTION
On February 2013, over 35 million Italian citizens voted to renew the national Parliament. For the first time in Italian history, Internet played an important and perhaps decisive role as place of political debating. In order to investigate the role that social media played in this electoral campaign, we collected social media mentions from Facebook and Twitter of the main political leaders during the month prior the election. This resulted in dataset composed by more than 2 millions Twitter messages and 25 millions Facebook interactions. Starting from critical multi-level approach, present paper will attempt both to deal with complexity of election predictive models based on online data and to highlight main determinants affecting vote and online mention. All these questions will be answered through the use of large-scale longitudinal data.TRANSCRIPT
Social Media in the 2013 Italian Election
Luca Rossi1, Fabio Giglietto2, Mario Orefice2, Giovanni Boccia Artieri2
dataset
Data source: www.blogmeter.eu
Data constructionEvery electoral system frame the individual political opinion within a specific structure e.g. parties, coalitions, etc.
Social Media Italian Political system
Conversation based on an individual level (Politicians)
Parties and coalitions are the electoral unit.
@beppegrillo
@pbersani
@angealfano
@silvioberlusconi
CDX
IBC
M5S
Errors FB/TW/Polls
Single day of Data, Feb. 7th 2013
Evolution of the mean average error
Political surveys and Facebook PTA
Political surveys and Twitter Mentions
Media presence: is there a significant correlation between the presence on the (online) media and the electoral results.
-Monti a OttoeMezzo e UnoMattina-Monti svela il logo di “Scelta Civica”
Berlusconi a ServizioPubblico
-Patto Monti/Bersani anti-Berlusconi-Videomessaggio di Monti su Fb-Monti a Skytg24 “no a unioni gay”
-Monti apre campagna.“riforme radicali”“via gli incapaci”
“voto ad erasmus”
-Bersani ad Agorà-Bersani su PD/MPS-presentazione della squadra del csx
Berlusconi su Mussolini e leggi razziali
-Puppato ad Agorà-Renzi/Bersani a Firenze-Scontro Bersani/Grillo-Scontro Bersani/Maroni
Proposta shock su IMU
-B a UnoMattina-B a Radio2 annuncia lettera per restituzione IMU-Rinvio processo Ruby per legittimo imp.-B su Sanremo “rosso”
-IBC in piazza a Milano -Scontro Bersani/Grillo su Casa Pound e reddito citt.-Bersani “smacchiamo il giaguaro”
-Tsunamitour a Genova e Savona-Berl su Grillo “pericolo per la democrazia”-Grillo annulla intervista a Sky
new spaces for politcal debates
zerolikers: users who never “liked” any content published on a specific page but nevertheless commented on that page.
likers zerolikers
avg
com
men
ts p
er u
ser
Berlusconi Bersani Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola
Berlusconi Bersani Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola
avg
com
men
ts b
y ze
rolik
ers
04
% z
erol
iker
s ov
er t
otal
us
ers
00.
35
Berlusconi Bersani Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola
00.
60
% c
omm
ents
by
zero
liker
s