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Networks  of  Protests,  Protests  on  Networks  A  descriptive  analysis  of  the  relationship  between  

Social  Media  and  Social  Mobilization

Comunicación  y  Política  Activismo  en  Redes  Sociales

Marcelo  Luis  B.  dos  Santos,  PhDc  (@celoo)  Noviembre  2015

Context

• How  do  you  feel  about  the  expressions:  • “Twitter  Revolution”  (Iran,  2009)    • “Facebook  Revolution”  (Egypt,  2011)  

• How  do  you  feel  about  the  expression  “slacktivism”?

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Research  Question  1

•What’s  the  state  of  the  art  in  Communications  Field  about  the  relationship  between:  

SOCIAL  MEDIA  (SMed)  

&    

SOCIAL  MOVEMENTS  (SMov)

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Research  Question  2

Can   methodological   (quantitative   x  qualitative  x  mixed  methods  approach;  use  of   theory,   schools   of   thought   etc.)   or  descriptive  variables/options  (place/time  of  research,   academic   tie   etc.)   interfere   or  bias,  to  some  extent,  the  results?

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Sampling  Criteria

• 4  Indexes  –EBSCO  Communication  &  Mass  Media  Complete  (CMMC)  –Thomson-­‐Reuters  Web  of  Science  (WoS)  –Latindex  –SciELO  

• 3  Languages  –Portuguese  –Spanish  –English  

• Lapse  of  time:  Jan  2011  -­‐  June  2014  (42  months)5

Sampling  Criteria

• Keywords  (fields  “Title”  and/or  “Abstract”)  –  ‘Social  Media’  –‘Social  Networks’  –‘Protests’  –‘Collective  Action’  

Plus  all  equivalents  in  Spanish  and  Portuguese  for  Latindex  and  SciELO

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Sample  Criteria

• Initial  sample:  90  articles  • Final  sample:  56  articles  Exclusion  criteria:(a)  Social  Media  didn’t  play  such  a  significant  role  in  the  research  (for  example  studies  centered  on  Internet  in  general)  

-­‐  Tunç,  2013:  relevant  discussion  on  the  effect  of  Social  Media  on  freedom  of  expression  in  a  country  with  a  restricted  naponal  media  system.  Protagonist:  censorship.  

(b)  The  analysis  of  the  role  of  the  Social  Media  was  not  directly  related  in  some  measure  to  the  Social  Movements.    

-­‐Earl,  2010:  Discussion  over  the  use  of  diffusion  theory  to  study  social  mobilizapon.  Protagonist:  method. 7

Sample  Results

56  articles  means:  • All  Continents  • Countries  where  protests  took  place:  –21  different  countries  –Regions  or  sub-­‐regions  (‘South  of  Africa’,  ‘Northern  Africa’,  ‘Europe’,  ‘Arab  World’  etc.)  

• 25  different  Social  Movements  or  Protests  –OWS,  Indignados  (15M),  Arab  Spring,  Jornadas  de  Junho,  Movimiento  Estudiantil  de  Chile,  Irán  2009,  India  Against  Corruption  (IAC),  Biafra  (Nigeria),  NTU  (Singapore),  Peace  Talks  (Tasmania),  Lybia,  Unibrennt  (Austria)  and  others. 8

Procedures

• Coding  1/2

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Category Variable Description  and/or  Metadata Example

IDENTIFICATION

Title Title  of  the  Article The  Arab  Spring  and  Online  Protests  in  Iraq

Author Ahmed  K.  Al  Rawi

Publication Name  of  journal  where  the  article  was  published International  Journal  of  Communication

Index Communication  &  Mass  Media  Complete;  Web  of  Science;  Latindex,  Scielo Web  of  Science

Language Spanish,  English,  Portuguese English

Year  of  Publication Year  of  the  article's  publication  online 2014

Year  of  Case Year  of  the  studied  case  (if  applies) 2011

Place  of  Author's  Academic  Tie

Country  where  the  author  (or  authors)  have  academic  ties Holland

Place  of  the  Case Country  where  the  studied  case  happened  (if  applies) Iraq

THEME

Analyzed  Relationship  SMed-­‐SMov

SMed  &  Activism;  SMed  &  Democracy;  SMed  &  Social  Mobilization;  SMed  &  Traditional  Media;  SMed  &  Organizational  Communication.

Social  Media  and  Activism

Analyzed  Case Name  of  the  specific  case  of  study  (if  applies) Protests  in  Iraq  -­‐  February  2011

Procedures

• Coding  2/2

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Category Variable Description  and/or  Metadata Example

METHOD

Strategy Qualitative,  Quantitative  or  Mixed-­‐Methods Quantitative

Method  Details Specific  Method(s)  used  in  the  study  (i.e.  Digital  Ethnography,  Content  Analysis  etc.) Digital  Ethnography  (Webometric)

Sample Description  of  the  used  sample 5  pages  FB;  805  videos  YT  and  its  2.839  comments

Analysis  Unit Research's  Analysis  Unit Facebook;  YouTube

Observation  Unit Research's  Observation  Unit Posts,  videos,  comments  on  videos

THEORYTheory  Use Evident  Use;  Applied  Framework/Model;  Mere  

Reference  to  theory;  Atheoretical. Atheoretical

Theory  Used Name(s)  of  the  Theory  or  Theories  used  in  the  article   not  applicable

RESULTS

Observed  Relationship  between  SMed-­‐SMov

Positive:  SMed  somehow  enhace  SMov;    Neutral  or  Weighted:  Relationship  is  inconclusive;  there  is  no  observable  relationship  or  there's  a  weighted  relationship  between  SMed  and  SMov;    Negative:  SMed  interfere  negatively  in  SMov.

Positive

Key  Variable:  Observed  Relationship

• Positive:  explicitly  stated  positive  relationship  –Maireder  and  Schwarzenegger  conclude  that  their  analysis  “shows  that  social  media  communication  was  pivotal  for  the  2009  Austrian  student  protests”  (2011,  p.  189)    

–“[media]  oligopolies  had  their  structures  irreversibly  shaken”  (Gonçalves,  2013,  p.  62,  translated  by  author)    

–“[Social  Media]  have  become  important  resources  for  the  mobilization  of  collective  action  and  the  subsequent  creation,  organization,  and  implementation  of  social  movements  around  the  world”  (Eltantawy  &  Wiest,  2011,  p.  1207)

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Key  Variable:  Observed  Relationship

•Weighted:  cautious  statements  –Cabalin  states  that  while  the  greater  use  of  SMed  predicts  greater  probability  of  participation  in  street  protests  (Valenzuela,  2013),  “it  cannot  be  considered  as  a  trigger  of  those  actions”  (2014)    

–“However,  we  also  acknowledge  the  limitations  of  cyberactivism  efforts,  as  represented  in  these  Facebook  pages,  in  bringing  about  the  desired  results  in  terms  of  actual  political  change  on  the  ground”  (Khamis  &  Vaughn  2011,  p.  146)

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Key  Variable:  Observed  Relationship

• Neutral:  not-­‐neither  – "Will  the  revolution  be  twittered?  It  is  more  important  to  ask  how  social  media  embed  and  engage  different  ecologies  of  dissent."  (Segerberg  &  Bennet,  2011,  p.  213)  

• Negative:  definitely  not  a  positive  relationship  – “Adnan  Hajizada  and  Emin  Milli  in  Azerbaijan  were  victims  of  police  brutality,  but  their  victimization  served  to  dissuade  rather  than  incite  protest  among  their  online  peers”  (Pearce  &  Kendzior,  2012,  p.  6)    

– “we  found  a  consistently  negative  correlation  between  the  extent  of  social  media  penetration  and  the  amount  of  protests”  (Wolfsfeld  et  al.  2012,  p.  132).  

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Results  of  the  Research

Results

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Positive:  86%  Not  Negative:  >  96%  Negative:  2  studies  (out  of  56) Posi%ve(

or(Weighted(

86%(

Neutral(or(

Nega%ve(14%(

Rela%onship,SMed,x,SMov:,Overall,results,,

Results:  Methods

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Most  Used  Methods

a.  Qualitative 28 100%

Bibliographical  Articulation 8 29%

Discourse  Analysis 7 25%

Interviews 7 25%

Digital/Virtual  Ethnography 5 18%

b.  Quantitative 13 100%

Content  Analysis 5 38%

Survey 5 38%

c.  Mixed-­‐Methods 15 100%

Content  Analysis 11 73%

Interviews 8 73%

Discourse  Analysis 4 50%

Survey 2 50%

19# 9#

6#

9# 3#

8#

0# 1# 1#

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Qualita3ve# Quan3ta3ve# Mixed:Methods#

Rela%onship,SMed,x,SMov,/,Method,

Nega3ve#

Neutral#or#Weighted#

Posi3ve#

Different  patterns

Results:  Use  of  Theory

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12#

6#

12#

2#0#

5#

10#

15#

20#

25#

Atheore-cal# Mere#Reference# Framework# Evident#Use#

Rela%onship,SMed,x,SMov,/,Use,of,Theory,

Nega-ve#

Neutral#or#Weighted#

Posi-ve#

New  object,  new  theories  needed?

Results:  Temporal  Gap

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0"2"4"6"8"10"12"14"16"18"

0"years" 1"year" 2"years" 3"years" 4"years" 5"years"

Rela%onship,SMed,x,SMov,/,Temporal,Gap,

Posi2ve" Neutral/Weighted" Nega2ve"

Why  the  shift?

Results:  Territorial  Gap

19

0"

5"

10"

15"

20"

25"

30"

35"

40"

Same"Place" Other"Place"

Rela%onship,SMed,x,SMov,/,Territorial,Gap,(Researcher,x,Case),

Nega5ve"

Neutral/Weighted"Posi5ve"

‘local  researcher  bias’  ?

Results:  Regionalism/Schools  of  Thought

20

0"

10"

20"

30"

40"

50"

English" Spanish" Portuguese"

Rela%onship,SMed,x,SMov,/,Language,

Nega9ve"

Neutral/Weighted"

Spanish  +  Portuguese:  11  out  of  12  Positive

0"

5"

10"

15"

20"

25"

30"

35"

40"

45"

La*ndex"+"SciELO" CMMC"+"WoS"

Compara've*Indexes*

Nega*ve"

Neutral"or"Weighted"

Posi*ve"

Latindex  +  SciELO:  12  out  of  15  Positive

“…these  tools  and  possibilipes  are  going  to  change  

democracy   and   everybody,   to   a   greater   or   lesser  

degree,   are   going   to   be   protagonists   of   those  

changes”  (Levato,  2013,  p.  75,  my  emphasis).

Conclusions

• 86%  positive  relationship  SMed  x  SMov    • Boulianne  Meta-­‐analysis  finds  82%  (2015)  

Can  we  move  forward  from  binary  ‘yes/no’  effect  question?  

• 3.6%  negative:  –Exceptional  cases:  Azerbaijan  –Specific  variables:    •SMed  Penetration  NOT  =  SMov  rise

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Next?

• Specificity  +  Transversality  –Specific  transversal  variable  (ex:  UGC;  Political  System)  

• Integrative  view  –‘Media  ecologies’  (Nardy  &  O’Day,  1999;   Treré,  2012)  –‘Constellations  of  media’  (Couldry,  Livingstone  and  Markham,  2007)  –‘Mediated  cultures  of  Social  Movements’  (Constanza-­‐Chock,  2012)  –Transmedia  narratives  (Constanza-­‐Chock,  2013) 22

Conclusion

“…further  research  on  the  relationship  between  SMed  and  SMov  should  point  to  specific  issues  that  help  to  build  upon  each  other  in  order  to  offer  a  more  complex  and  intertwined  view  of  the  specific  attributes,  properties  and  conditions  that  drive  that  relationship  one  way  or  another,  leaving  behind  definitively  the  oversimplification  of  the  binary  relationship  that  had  been  a  relevant  question  so  far.”

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Acknowledgements

Chile:    • Sebastián  Valenzuela  for  insights,  reviews  and  knowledge  that  support  a  great  deal  of  this  work.  • Professors  from  Pontificia  Universidad  Católica  de  Chile  Communication  Science  PhD  program.  • Vicerrectoría  de  Investigación  of  UC-­‐Chile  for  the  travel  grant  and  PhD  scholarship.  • Universidad  Finis  Terrae,  Universidad  del  Desarrollo  for  financial  travel  support.  

ICA  and  CAT  for  travel  grant.

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Thoughts?  Get  in  touch  =)

OBRIGADO!  

MARCELOLBSANTOS@GMAIL.COM  

@celoo  

https://uc-­‐cl.academia.edu/MarcelolbSantos  

http://www.slideshare.net/celoo  

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