[smart grid market research] china electricity profile, zpryme smart grid insights, december 2011

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  • 8/2/2019 [Smart Grid Market Research] China Electricity Profile, Zpryme Smart Grid Insights, December 2011

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    Zpryme Smart Grid Insights Presents:

    China: Electricity ProfileWhat implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity

    cocktail have for the United States and rest of the world?

    Learn more @ www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org

    December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

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    1 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?

    Coal price growth

    has outpaced state[China] set electricity

    tariffs Electricityoutput is falling back

    on coal generation'sslow down.

    Quote: Ric Deverell, Credit SuisseSource: Bloomberg, Dinakar Sethuraman, Coal Demand Hurt in China by Low Power Rates, November 18, 2011

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    2 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?

    Chinas Electricity Profile at a Glance

    According to the International EnergyAgencys World Energy Outlook 2011by

    2015 China will overtake the U.S., andbecome the leader in total electricity

    generation capacity. Whats more, by2035 China will consume nearly 70%more energy than the United States...From phasing out incandescent light bulbs within five years

    to optimizing the country's clean energy mix, whats

    extraordinary about Chinas electricity infrastructure is the

    speed and scale of its expansion. The solar, wind, coal,hydro, and related renewable technology and generation

    is galloping at a champions pace, surpassing the U.S. and

    rest of the world. For example, China has now become the

    new world leader in wind power, having overtaken the

    U.S., with 40.2 GW (just three years earlier Chinas 2020wind deployment goal was set at 30GW, currently its amighty 200GW) while attracting the highest new financial

    investments for two years in a row with $49 billion USD in

    renewables, i.e. about a third of total global investments(since August 2010 China continues to be the mostattractive country for renewable investment, followed by

    U.S., Germany, India and Italy).

    To meet this electricity cocktail, the Chinese governmenthas outlined major plans and dedicated billions to

    research, design and build a nationwide Smart Grid.

    Zpryme projects the total value of Chinas Smart Grid

    http://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.htmlhttp://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.htmlhttp://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.htmlhttp://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.html
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    4 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?

    offer a unique paradox for a nation that has not even

    skimmed the surface of both emitting greenhouse gassesand clean-tech preeminence. With Chinese government

    cooperation, foreign companies that are quick to

    penetrate this market will find that 2012 is the year their

    brand becomesynonymous with the Smart Grid.

    Key China Electricity Profile Findings

    From 2010 to 2015, world total electricity generationcapacity is projected to increase by 284 GW, from

    4,623 GW to 4,907 GW, respectively. During this time

    period, China will account for 63% (179 GW) of the

    worlds increase in generation capacity. From 2010

    to 2035, China is projected to account for 39% of the

    worlds increase in generation capacity.

    By 2015, China will overtake the U.S., and becomethe leader in total electricity generation capacity.

    By 2035, China will account for a quarter of theworlds electricity generation capacity.

    By 2035, China will account for nearly half (49%) ofthe worlds coal fired generation capacity at 1,043

    GW. By 2015, China will lead the world in the hydro and

    other renewable electricity generation, accountingfor 21% (248 GW) of world capacity. This figure is

    projected to reach 24% (581 GW) by 2035. Chinas wind generation capacity will grow by

    1200% from 2010 to 2035, reaching 533 GW by 2035.

    LEARN MORE: please see the next several pages for

    China projection totals on: electric generating

    capacity, coal, renewable, hydro, wind, and solar.

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    5 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?

    China Electricity

    Projections for

    Total:electric generating

    capacity, coal, renewables,

    hydro, wind, and solar.

    http://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.htmlhttp://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.htmlhttp://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.htmlhttp://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.htmlhttp://zpryme.com/practices/smart-grid-insights.html
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    6 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?

    Total Electric Generating Capacity Coal Fired Generating Capacity

    1,049 1,075 1,085 1,119 1,170 1,221

    976 1,1181,313 1,492

    1,666 1,817

    4,9075,312

    5,7966,269

    6,7697,272

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    8,000

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Projected Total Generating Capacity (GW)

    2010 - 2035Figure 2, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    United States China World

    21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 17%

    20% 21% 23% 24% 25% 25%

    59% 59% 59% 58% 58% 58%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Percent of World Generating Capacity

    2010 - 2035Figure 3, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    ROW

    China

    UnitedStates

    322 322 323 326 329 334

    670 695 733848

    9621,043

    1,627 1,646 1,6771,810

    1,9682,129

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Projected Coal Fired Generating Capacity (GW)

    2010 - 2035Figure 4, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    United States China World

    20% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16%

    41% 42% 44% 47% 49% 49%

    39% 38% 37% 35% 34% 35%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Percent of World Coal Generating Capacity

    2010 - 2035Figure 5, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    ROW

    China

    UnitedStates

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    7 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?

    Hydro and Other Renewable Generating Capacity Wind Generating Capacity

    157 179 184 194 201 205248

    330456 494

    532 581

    1,300

    1,578

    1,8902,054

    2,2092,372

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Projected Renewable Generating Capacity (GW)

    2010 - 2035Figure 6, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    United States China World

    12% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9%

    19% 21% 24% 24% 24% 24%

    69% 68% 66% 67% 67% 67%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Percent of Renewable Generating Capacity

    2010 - 2035Figure 7, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    ROW

    China

    UnitedStates

    38 51 51 5455 57

    3162

    99119

    139156

    180

    293

    398

    456 496

    533

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Projected Wind Generating Capacity (GW)

    2010 - 2035Figure 8, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    United States China World

    21% 17% 13% 12% 11% 11%

    17% 21%25% 26% 28% 29%

    62% 61% 62% 62% 61% 60%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Percent of Wind Generating Capacity

    2010 - 2035Figure 9, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    ROW

    China

    UnitedStates

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    8 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?

    Solar Generating Capacity

    39 11 11 12

    13

    17

    18 19 20 2125

    62

    86

    97

    106

    119

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Projected Solar Generating Capacity (GW)

    2010 - 2035Figure 10, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    United States China World

    12% 15% 13% 11% 11% 11%

    3%11%

    21% 20% 19% 18%

    85%74%

    66% 69% 70% 71%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Percent of Solar Generating Capacity

    2010 - 2035Figure 11, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011

    ROW

    China

    UnitedStates

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    9 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011

    Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?

    Zpryme CreditsEditor

    Robert LangstonManaging Editor

    Sean SayersResearch Lead

    Stefan Trifonov

    Disclaimer

    These materials and the information contained herein are provided by Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC and areintended to provide general information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment ofsuch subject(s). Accordingly, the information in these materials is not intended to constitute accounting, tax, legal,investment, consulting or other professional advice or services. The information is not intended to be relied upon asthe sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business. Before making any decision or taking anyaction that might affect your personal finances or business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. Thesematerials and the information contained herein is provided as is, and Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC makes noexpress or implied representations or warranties regarding these materials and the information herein. Without limitingthe foregoing, Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC does not warrant that the materials or information containedherein will be error-free or will meet any particular criteria of performance or quality. Zpryme Research & Consulting,LLC expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitnessfor a particular purpose, noninfringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy. Prediction of future events isinherently subject to both known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results tovary materially. Your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk and you assume fullresponsibility and risk of loss resulting from the use thereof. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC will not be liable for anyspecial, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an

    action of contract, statute, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of thesematerials and the information contained herein.

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    Learn more @ www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org

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