[smart grid market research] china electricity profile, zpryme smart grid insights, december 2011
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8/2/2019 [Smart Grid Market Research] China Electricity Profile, Zpryme Smart Grid Insights, December 2011
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Zpryme Smart Grid Insights Presents:
China: Electricity ProfileWhat implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity
cocktail have for the United States and rest of the world?
Learn more @ www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org
December 2011
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Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?
Coal price growth
has outpaced state[China] set electricity
tariffs Electricityoutput is falling back
on coal generation'sslow down.
Quote: Ric Deverell, Credit SuisseSource: Bloomberg, Dinakar Sethuraman, Coal Demand Hurt in China by Low Power Rates, November 18, 2011
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Copyright 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?
Chinas Electricity Profile at a Glance
According to the International EnergyAgencys World Energy Outlook 2011by
2015 China will overtake the U.S., andbecome the leader in total electricity
generation capacity. Whats more, by2035 China will consume nearly 70%more energy than the United States...From phasing out incandescent light bulbs within five years
to optimizing the country's clean energy mix, whats
extraordinary about Chinas electricity infrastructure is the
speed and scale of its expansion. The solar, wind, coal,hydro, and related renewable technology and generation
is galloping at a champions pace, surpassing the U.S. and
rest of the world. For example, China has now become the
new world leader in wind power, having overtaken the
U.S., with 40.2 GW (just three years earlier Chinas 2020wind deployment goal was set at 30GW, currently its amighty 200GW) while attracting the highest new financial
investments for two years in a row with $49 billion USD in
renewables, i.e. about a third of total global investments(since August 2010 China continues to be the mostattractive country for renewable investment, followed by
U.S., Germany, India and Italy).
To meet this electricity cocktail, the Chinese governmenthas outlined major plans and dedicated billions to
research, design and build a nationwide Smart Grid.
Zpryme projects the total value of Chinas Smart Grid
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China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?
offer a unique paradox for a nation that has not even
skimmed the surface of both emitting greenhouse gassesand clean-tech preeminence. With Chinese government
cooperation, foreign companies that are quick to
penetrate this market will find that 2012 is the year their
brand becomesynonymous with the Smart Grid.
Key China Electricity Profile Findings
From 2010 to 2015, world total electricity generationcapacity is projected to increase by 284 GW, from
4,623 GW to 4,907 GW, respectively. During this time
period, China will account for 63% (179 GW) of the
worlds increase in generation capacity. From 2010
to 2035, China is projected to account for 39% of the
worlds increase in generation capacity.
By 2015, China will overtake the U.S., and becomethe leader in total electricity generation capacity.
By 2035, China will account for a quarter of theworlds electricity generation capacity.
By 2035, China will account for nearly half (49%) ofthe worlds coal fired generation capacity at 1,043
GW. By 2015, China will lead the world in the hydro and
other renewable electricity generation, accountingfor 21% (248 GW) of world capacity. This figure is
projected to reach 24% (581 GW) by 2035. Chinas wind generation capacity will grow by
1200% from 2010 to 2035, reaching 533 GW by 2035.
LEARN MORE: please see the next several pages for
China projection totals on: electric generating
capacity, coal, renewable, hydro, wind, and solar.
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China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?
China Electricity
Projections for
Total:electric generating
capacity, coal, renewables,
hydro, wind, and solar.
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China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?
Total Electric Generating Capacity Coal Fired Generating Capacity
1,049 1,075 1,085 1,119 1,170 1,221
976 1,1181,313 1,492
1,666 1,817
4,9075,312
5,7966,269
6,7697,272
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Projected Total Generating Capacity (GW)
2010 - 2035Figure 2, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
United States China World
21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 17%
20% 21% 23% 24% 25% 25%
59% 59% 59% 58% 58% 58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Percent of World Generating Capacity
2010 - 2035Figure 3, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
ROW
China
UnitedStates
322 322 323 326 329 334
670 695 733848
9621,043
1,627 1,646 1,6771,810
1,9682,129
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Projected Coal Fired Generating Capacity (GW)
2010 - 2035Figure 4, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
United States China World
20% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16%
41% 42% 44% 47% 49% 49%
39% 38% 37% 35% 34% 35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Percent of World Coal Generating Capacity
2010 - 2035Figure 5, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
ROW
China
UnitedStates
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China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?
Hydro and Other Renewable Generating Capacity Wind Generating Capacity
157 179 184 194 201 205248
330456 494
532 581
1,300
1,578
1,8902,054
2,2092,372
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Projected Renewable Generating Capacity (GW)
2010 - 2035Figure 6, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
United States China World
12% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9%
19% 21% 24% 24% 24% 24%
69% 68% 66% 67% 67% 67%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Percent of Renewable Generating Capacity
2010 - 2035Figure 7, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
ROW
China
UnitedStates
38 51 51 5455 57
3162
99119
139156
180
293
398
456 496
533
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Projected Wind Generating Capacity (GW)
2010 - 2035Figure 8, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
United States China World
21% 17% 13% 12% 11% 11%
17% 21%25% 26% 28% 29%
62% 61% 62% 62% 61% 60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Percent of Wind Generating Capacity
2010 - 2035Figure 9, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
ROW
China
UnitedStates
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China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?
Solar Generating Capacity
39 11 11 12
13
17
18 19 20 2125
62
86
97
106
119
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Projected Solar Generating Capacity (GW)
2010 - 2035Figure 10, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
United States China World
12% 15% 13% 11% 11% 11%
3%11%
21% 20% 19% 18%
85%74%
66% 69% 70% 71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Percent of Solar Generating Capacity
2010 - 2035Figure 11, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
ROW
China
UnitedStates
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China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in Chinas electricity cocktail have for the UnitedStates and rest of the world?
Zpryme CreditsEditor
Robert LangstonManaging Editor
Sean SayersResearch Lead
Stefan Trifonov
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