!"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

48
!"#$%&'()%#*$ ,- '.$(. !"#$ &" &'(() !"# %&!'()*)'+, %-.*!+./"), !" !"#$%& !"#$"%#$" %'()*+'" ,(% -%. /00*" !1#$"22"3 41,$*" 5%(66" "2 7)1%"0#" 8(9*:;" 8" <;*+3 "0 ,(%2"0(%*(2 (9"# )" !'+"(; ="+ >"66"+ "0 "09*%100"6"02 =(0+ )" #(=%" =; ?%121#1)" @A/BC!")(*+D>"66"+3 4"%9*#" (;E #1))"#2*9*2'+3 @0*9"%+*2' =; A;'F"# G B102%'() H@A/BI.

Upload: others

Post on 21-May-2020

8 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

!"#$%&'()%#*$+,-+'.$(.+!

!"#$%&"%&'(()%!

!"#$%&!'()*)'+,$%-.*!+./"),!!"#!"#$%&!

!"#$"%#$"&%'()*+'"&,(%&-%.&/00*"&!1#$"22"3&41,$*"&5%(66"&"2&7)1%"0#"&8(9*:;"&8"&<;*+3&"0&,(%2"0(%*(2&(9"#&)"&!'+"(;&="+&>"66"+&"0&"09*%100"6"02&=(0+&)"&#(=%"&=;&?%121#1)"&@A/BC!")(*+D>"66"+3&4"%9*#"&

(;E&#1))"#2*9*2'+3&@0*9"%+*2'&=;&A;'F"#&G&B102%'()&H@A/BI.&

Page 2: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2

Page 3: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3

"#$#%&'#$#()*!

J"& ,%1K"2 & ="& %"#$"%#$"& 0L(;%( *2 & ,(+ & '2' & ,1++ *F )" & +(0+ & ) L *0 * 2 *(2 *9" & "2 & )" & ,(%2"0(% *(2 & =;&!'+"(;& ="+ & >"66"+& "0& "09*%100"6"02& H!'+"(;I & "2 & ="& +( & ,%'+ *="02"& 7%(0#"& 8"9"%2 3 &( *0+ * & M;"& ) L(,,;* & =;& 4"%9 *#" & (;E& #1 ) )"#2 *9 * 2'+ & ="& ) L@A/B3& G & 2%(9"%+ & )" & ?%121#1)" &@A/BC!")( *+ D >"66"+3 &"2 &, );+ &,(%2 *#; ) *N%"6"02& )" &+1;2 *"0&="&8O0"&P;%2Q6(0. & &

R1;+& %"6"%# *10+ & ) L'M;*,"& ="& %"#$"%#$"& #16,1+'"& ="& 41,$*" & 5%(66"& "2 & 7 )1%"0#"&8(9 *:0"&8" &<;*+ . & &

R1;+& ( *6"%*10+ & ':()"6"02& %"6"%# *"% & P *6& J1%0") *++"0& H!'+"(;& "2 & <"F1,& "2 & # *"I 3 & M;* & ( &,(%2 *# *,'& (#2 *9"6"02& (;& #16*2' & = L"0#(=%"6"02& =;& ,%1K"2 & ="& %"#$"%#$"3 & ( *0+ * & M;"&-"0*+" &?%1;)E &="&5(S( &?%"++"3 &J(%1) *0"&R(02") &( )1%+ &="& )( &J!T&="& )( &B102'%':*"DU+2 3 &"2 &V(# *02$"& 8"F)(0#& =;& !A5U& ,1;% & )";% & %W )" & =(0+& )" & ='6(%%(:"& "2 & )" & +1;2 *"0& #102 *0;& =;&,%1K"2 . & &

J"22" & '2;="& ( & ':()"6"02& F'0'> *# *' & ="& )( & ,(%2 *# *,(2 *10& ="+ & ,"%+100"+& +; *9(02"+ & M;* &102 & =100'& ="& )";% & 2"6,+&"2 & ="& )";%+ & *='"+X & 5;O)( *0"& ?1*% *"% 3 & - *(0"& B1021;%3 &!(O610="& ? )(610=103 & J') *0"& -;9() 3 & 8;#"& <'%(%=3 & B(;="& ?%;=L$166"3& Y *%: *0 *" &8(6F"%2D7"%%O 3 & T )1 S+" & 4(91*"3 & 5;* ) )(;6"& ?)(610=103 & /%2$;% & 7(;2";E3 & B(%#") )" &5"0=%"(;3 &8 *+" &?(%"023 &-16*0*M;"&Z;") )"2 &"2 &/ )"E(&J10%(=* . & &

4;% & ;0"& 012"& , );+ & ,"%+100") )" 3 & )"+ & >"66"+& *0+,*%(02"+ & "2 & 6* ) * 2(02"+ & M;"& K L( * &%"0#102%'"+ & 21;2 & (;& )10:& ="& #" & ,%1K"2 & ="& %"#$"%#$"& 6L102 & 6(%M;'"& ,%1>10='6"02. &J"+ & >"66"+& 2%(9(* ) )"02 & +1;9"02 & +(0+ & %" )[#$"& ,1;% & >( *%" & (9(0#"% & )"+ & "0K";E& +1# *(;E& "2 &"09*%100"6"02(;E. & &

&

!!!!!!!

Page 4: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4

+,%)#(,'%#*!-#!".*#,/!0#*!1#$$#*!#(!#(2'%3((#$#()!

!"##"$%&

8"& !'+"(;& ="+ & >"66"+& "0& "09*%100"6"02& H!'+"(;I & ( & ,1;% & 6*++ *10& ="& =100"% & (;&A;'F"#& ;0& "+,(#"& =L'#$(0:"& "2 & ;0"& 91*E & (;E & ,%'1##;,(2 *10+ & ="+ & # * 21O"00"+& M;(02 & G &)( & ,%1612*10& =;& ='9")1,,"6"02& =;%(F)" & "2 & ,% *1% * 2( *%"6"02& G & )( & ,%12"#2 *10& ="&) L"09*%100"6"02&"2 &="& )( &+(02'. &

'()*+, " -# &

8"+ & 1FK"#2 * >+ & =;& !'+"(;& +102 & ="& >(91% *+"% & )( &6*+" & "0& ) *"0 & ="+ & >"66"+& *02'%"++'"+ & ,(% &)" & ='9")1,,"6"02& =;%(F)" & "2 & ) L"09*%100"6"023 & %"0>1%#"% & )"+ & #(,(#*2'+ & = L *02"%9"02 *10&="+ & >"66"+& =(0+& )"+ & =16(*0"+ & =;& ='9")1,,"6"02& =;%(F)" & "2 & ="& ) L"09*%100"6"023 &*0>1%6"%& "2 & +"0+ *F * ) * +"% & )( & ,1,;)(2 *10& +;% & ) L"09*%100"6"02& "2 & +;% & )"+ & ) *"0+ & "02%" &) L"09*%100"6"023 & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )( & +(02'3 & + L *6,) *M;"% & =(0+& )" & ='9")1,,"6"02& "2 & )( &= * > >;+ *10& ="& 01;9") )"+ & #100(*++(0#"+ & =(0+& )"+ & =16(*0"+ & #10#"%0'+ & ,(% & )( & 6*++ *103 &"02%" &(;2%"+ &"0& #102% *F;(02 &G &="+ &(#2 *9 * 2'+ &="& %"#$"%#$"&"2 & #102% *F;"% &G & )( &,%12"#2 *10&="& ) L"09*%100"6"02&"2 &(; &='9")1,,"6"02&=;%(F)" &,(% &="+ &(#2 *10+ &#10#%N2"+. &

."#,$/ "01*&

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` & >'9% *"% &abbb. & &

!*2(*/#3"4 &*, &4$4156, "$%&/*)$"%,* &

U0& ab]]3 & )" & !'+"(;& %":%1;,"& M;")M;"& cbb& 6"6F%"+ & =(0+& ) \"0+"6F)" & =;& A;'F"#&(#2 *9"+ & =(0+& ="+ & 6* ) *";E & = *9"%+ * > *'+ & X & *0+2 * 2;2 *10+3 & 6;0*# *,() * 2'+ 3 & "02%",% *+"+ 3 &;0*9"%+ * 2'+ & H,%1>"++";%"+3 & #$"%#$";%"+3 & '2;=*(02"+I 3 & 1%:(0*+(2 *10+ & )1#( )"+ 3 & ZR53& &( *0+ * &M;"&="+ &# * 21O"00"+.]&

!

!"#$%&"'(%)"*+,-.$&/01,$-)")%&"(2)"'&$321)"*%"4567"8$,&"999:&;.2:$&<"

Page 5: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 5

-4.5/'6#!0#!%#&7#%&7#!

8 L'M;*,"& ="& %"#$"%#$"& "+2 & >1%6'"& ="& )( & ,%1>"++";%"& /00*" & !1#$"22" & =;& -',(%2"6"02&="+ & +# *"0#"+ & K;% *= *M;"+ & ="& ) L@A/B3& ="& 41,$*" & 5%(66"3& '2;=*(02" & (;& a" & #O# )" & ="&) L d0+2 * 2;2 & ="+ & +# *"0#"+ & ="& ) L"09*%100"6"02& ="& ) L@A/B& "2 & ="& 7 )1%"0#"& 8(9 *:0"& 8"& <;*+ 3 &'2;=*(02"&(;&F(##()(;%'(2 &"0&=%1*2 . &

/00*" & !1#$"22" & "+2 & +,'#*( ) *+2" & "0& =%1*2 & ="& ) L"09*%100"6"023 & "0 & =%1*2 & *02"%0(2 *10() & ="&) L"09*%100"6"02& "2 & =(0+ & )"+ & (,,%1#$"+ & >'6*0*+2"+ & "2 & '#1>'6*0*+2"+ & G & )( & ,%12"#2 *10& ="&) L"09*%100"6"02. & &

&

-#!&3$').!04#(&,0%#$#()!

8"& #16*2' & = L"0#(=%"6"02& ,1;% & #" & ,%1K"2 & ="& %"#$"%#$"& "+2 & #16,1+'& ="& ) L'M;*,"& ="&%"#$"%#$"3 & ( *0+ * & M;"& ="& 8O0"& P;%2Q6(0& =;& 4"%9 *#" & (;E& #1 ) )"#2 *9 * 2'+ & ="& ) L@A/B3& ="&7%(0#"& 8"9"%2 3 & ,%'+ *="02"& =;& !'+"(;& ="+ & >"66"+& "0& "09*%100"6"023 & "2 & ="& P *6&J1%0") *++"0&=;&!'+"(;&="+ & >"66"+&"0&"09*%100"6"02&"2 &="&<"F1,&"2 &# *" . & &

!

-#!&3$').!&3(*/8),)'1! !

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

&

Page 6: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 6

9,:8# !0#* !$,)';%#* ! Remerciements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

T a b l e d e s m a t i è r e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

R é s u m é . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

P r o b l é m a t i q u e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

L e s c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s a u Q u é b e c . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 0

O b j e c t i f s d e l a r e c h e r c h e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1

Q u e s t i o n s d e r e c h e r c h e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2

M é t h o d o l o g i e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2

R é s u l t a t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 5

C a d r e p o l i t i q u e e t j u r i d i q u e a c t u e l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 7

C a d r e i n t e r n a t i o n a l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 7

C a d r e q u é b é c o i s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 9

L ’ a b s e n c e d e r e c o n n a i s s a n c e d e s l i e n s e n t r e l e g e n r e e t l a l u t t e a u x c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 5

E n j e u x d e g e n r e r e l i é s a u x c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 8

I m p a c t s d i f f é r e n c i é s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 9

L ’ a t t é n u a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2

L e s s t r a t é g i e s d ’ a d a p t a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 9

S u i v i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 0

F e m m e s d a n s l e s i n s t a n c e s d é c i s i o n n e l l e s p o u r l e s c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1

R e p e n s e r l e s y s t è m e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2

R e c o m m a n d a t i o n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2

R é f é r e n c e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 4

A n n e x e 1 – G r o u p e s e t i n d i v i d u s r e n c o n t r é s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 8

Page 7: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 7

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

A;(02 & (;& ,%"6*"% & 91 )"2 3 &6():%' & )"+ & 1F) *:(2 *10+ & *02"%0(2 *10()"+ & (;EM;") )"+ & "+2 & 2"0;& )" &J(0(=(&,1;% & ) L *02':%(2 *10&=;&:"0%"&G & )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & "2 &6():%' &) L"E *+2"0#"& =L1;2 * )+ & )':(;E & "2 & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & (;& A;'F"#3 & )"+ & ,%1:%"++ *10+ & ="& )( & ,%12"#2 *10&"09*%100"6"02()" 3 & ="& )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& "2 & ="& ) L':() * 2' & ="+ & +"E"+ &+" & >102 & +(0+ & *02':%(2 *10&6;2;") )" . & 8 L(F+"0#"& ="& )( & = *6"0+*10& "09*%100"6"02()" & =(0+&)( &,1) * 2 *M;"&M;'F'#1*+" & +;% & ) L':() * 2' &( &6e6"&'2' & +1;) *:0'"&,(% & )" &J10+"* ) &=;&42(2;2 &="&)( &7"66"&"0&ab]b. & &

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

J"& ,%"6*"% & ">>1%2 & ="& %"#$"%#$"& (;%( & ,"%6*+ & ="& #10+2(2"% & M;L(#2;") )"6"023 & (; &A;'F"#3 & )"+ &M;"+2 *10+ &"09*%100"6"02()"+ &"2 &= L':() * 2' &="+ &+"E"+ &'91);"02 &"0&+ * )1 3 & +(;> &,1;% & #"%2( *0+ & =1++ *"%+ & #10#"%0(02 & )( & +(02' & ="+ & >"66"+. & d ) & O & ( & ,";& ="& #16,%'$"0+*10&="& )( & ,%1F)'6(2*M;"& =;& :"0%"& =(0+& )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & +(;> & )" & >( * 2 &=" & M;")M;"+&6* ) * 2(02"+. & J"22" & %"#$"%#$"& (;%( & ':()"6"02& ,"%6*+ & ="& >( *%" & '6"%:"% & ="+ &

Page 8: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 8

$O,12$N+"+ & M;(02 & G & #" & #10+2(2 3 & "2 & ="& #"%0"% & ;0& F"+1*0 & ="& +"0+ *F * ) * +(2 *103 & 2(02 & ="+ &:%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+& (;E& "0K";E& "09*%100"6"02(;E& "2 & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & M;"& ="+ & :%1;,"+&"09*%100"6"02(;E& G & )( & ,"%2 *0"0#"& ="& %'> )'#$*% & )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+&"0&O & *02':%(02 & ) L(0:)" &=;&:"0%". & & & &

Page 9: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 9

+%3:8.$,)'5/#!&

4" )10& )" & 5%1;,"& =L"E,"%2+ & *02"%:1;9"%0"6"02() & +;% & ) L'91);2 *10& =;& # ) *6(2 & H5dUJI 3 & & )"+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +102 & )"+ & f & g#h$(0:"6"02+ & ="& # ) *6(2 & M;* & +102 & (22% *F;'+ &= *%"#2"6"02& 1;& *0=*%"#2"6"02& G & ;0"& (#2 *9 * 2' & $;6(*0"& ( )2'%(02 & )( & #16,1+*2 *10& ="&) L(261+,$N%"& 610=*( )" & "2 & M;* & 9 *"00"02 & + L( K1;2"% & G & )( & 9(% *(F* ) * 2' & 0(2;%") )" & =;& # ) *6(2 &1F+"%9'"& (;& #1;%+ & ="& ,'% *1="+ & #16,(%(F)"+&i . & & 4" )10& )" & 5dUJ3 & )" & %'#$(;>>"6"02& ="& )( &, )(0N2"& "+2 & *0='0*(F)" & "2 & +10& (##')'%(2 *10& (02$%1,*M;". & Z0Q"& ="+ & =1;Q"& ="%0*N%"+ &(00'"+& +102 & ,(%6* & )"+ & =1;Q"& (00'"+& )"+ & , );+ & #$(;="+& 9'#;"+& =",;*+ & ]_`b. & 8" & 0 *9"(;&61O"0&="& )( &6"%& + L"+2 &' )"9'&="&] 3_ &66C(0&=",;*+ &]^j]&"2 &="&k 3] &66C(0&=",;*+ &]^^k. &8 L'2"0=;"& (00;") )" &61O"00"& ="+ & : )(#"+ & "0& /%#2 *M;"& ( & = *6*0;'& ="& a 3lm& ,(% & ='#"00*". &8" & %'#$(;>>"6"02& # ) *6(2 *M;"& ( & ="+ & *6,(#2+ & 012(66"02& +;% & )"+ & '#1+O+2N6"+&6(%*0+ & "2 &= L"(;& =1;#"& H(;:6"02(2 *10& ="+ & ( ):;"+ & "2 & , )(0#210I 3 & +;% & ) L(:% *#; )2;%"3 & +;% & )( & +(02' & "2 &)( & 61%2( ) * 2' & $;6(*0"& "2 & +;% & #"%2( *0"+ & (#2 *9 * 2'+ & ="+ & #166;0(;2'+ & 9 *9(02 & =(0+&) L/%#2 *M;"& H5dUJ& abb_3 & aDcI . & 8"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +102 & (;++ * & %"+,10+(F)"+ & ="&) L(;:6"02(2 *10& ="+ & #(2(+2%1,$"+& 0(2;%") )"+ & 2" ) )"+ & M;"& )"+ & *010=(2 *10+ & "2 & )"+ &+'#$"%"++"+. & & 8"+ & *6,(#2+ &+"%102 &, );+ & *6,1%2(02+ &=(0+ & )"+ &,(O+ &"0&='9")1,,"6"023 & )"+ &Q10"+&#W2 *N%"+ &"2 & )"+ &#166;0(;2'+ &01%=*M;"+& H !" !# $ I . &

8"+ & #(;+"+ &=;& %'#$(;>>"6"02& # ) *6(2 *M;"& +102 & )"+ & 9(% *(2 *10+ &="+ & #10#"02%(2 *10+ &="&:(Q &G & ">>"2 &="& +"%%" & H5U4I & "2 & = L('%1+1)+ &=(0+& ) L(261+,$N%". & U0&">>"2 3 & )"+ & '6*++ *10+ &="&5U4&*6,;2(F)"+ & (;E& (#2 *9 * 2'+ & $;6(*0"+ & 102 & (;:6"02'& ="& lbm& "02%" & ]^lb& "2 & abbc. & 8"+ &'6*++ *10+ & ="& JZa3 & )" & , );+ & *6,1%2(02 & 5U4& '6*+ & ,(% & )"+ & (#2 *9 * 2'+ & $;6(*0"+3 & , );+ &,(%2 *#; ) *N%"6"02& ) L;2 * ) * +(2 *10& ="& #16F;+2 *F )"+ & >1++ * )"+ 3 & 102 & (;:6"02'& ="& _bm& =(0+& )( &6e6"& ,'% *1="& H5dUJ& abb_3 & `I . & 8"+ & (;2%"+ & #(;+"+ & ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& JZa& +102 & )" &='F1*+"6"023 & )( & ='#16,1+*2 *10& 1%:(0*M;"& "2 & )( & 21;%F". & 8" & 6'2$(0"& "2 & ) L1EO="&0 *2%";E3 & "0& :%(0="& ,(%2 *" & '6*+ & ,(% & )"+ & (#2 *9 * 2'+ & (:% *#1 )"+ 3 & +102 & (;++ * & %"+,10+(F)"+ & =;&%'#$(;>>"6"02& # ) *6(2 *M;"& H5dUJ& abb_3 & `I . & B():%' & )"+ & 6"+;%"+ & = L(22'0;(2 *10& ="& 5U4&(=1,2'"+ & =",;*+ & )"+ & (00'"+& ]^^b3 & )" & 5dUJ& ,%1K"22" & 0'(061*0+ & M;"& )"+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="&5U4&610=*( )"+ &(;:6"02"%102 &="&a`&G &^bm&"02%" &abbb&"2 &abkb&H5dUJ&abb_3 &lI . & &

J10+*='%(02 & M;"& )" & %'#$(;>>"6"02& , )(0'2( *%" & "+2 & *0='0*(F)" 3 & M;L * ) & (;%( & ="+ & *6,(#2+ &+;% & )"+ & '#1+O+2N6"+& "2 & )"+ & (#2 *9 * 2'+ & $;6(*0"+ & "2 & M;L * ) & "+2 & #(;+'& ,% *0# *,()"6"02& ,(% &#"+ & (#2 *9 * 2'+ & $;6(*0"+3 & ;0"& (#2 *10& #10#"%2'"& ="& )( & #166;0(;2'& *02"%0(2 *10()" & "+2 &=10#& 0'#"++( *%" & "0& (61023 & ,(% & )( & %'=;#2 *10& ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& "2 & "0& (9() 3 & ,(% &) L(=(,2(2 *10&(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & *0'9*2(F)"+ . & &

&

&

Page 10: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 0

- # * ! & 7 ,( < #$#( ) * ! & 8 '$, ) ' 5 / # * ! , / ! =/ .: # & !

8"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& +102 & (;++ * & ;0"& %'() * 2' & (;& A;'F"#3 & 1n& )"+ & 2"6,'%(2;%"+ &61O"00"+& (00;") )"+ & 102 & (;:6"02'& "02%" & b 3k & "2 & ] 3` & =":%'& J")+ *;+ & ="& ]^jb& G & abb_. & 8"+ &(9"%+"+ &="&0"*:"&102 &(;:6"02'&=(0+& )" &01%=&=;&A;'F"#3 &6(*+ &= *6*0;'&=(0+ & )" & +;=. &Z0&,%'=*2 & M;"& )"+ & 2"6,'%(2;%"+ & $ *9"%0()"+ & ,1;%%( *"02 & (;:6"02"% & ="& k 3_ & =":%'+ & =(0+& )" &+;=&"2 &="&j 3` &=":%'+ &=(0+ & )" &01%=&=;&A;'F"#&= L *# * &ab`b. &Z0&,%'91*2 &':()"6"02&,1;% & )" &A;'F"#& ) L(;:6"02(2 *10& ="+ & '9N0"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "E2%e6"+3 & 2" ) )"+ & )"+ & +'#$"%"++"+3 &)"+ & *010=(2 *10+ & "2 & )"+ & , ); *"+ & 21%%"02 *" ) )"+ & H?/JJ& abab3 & kDcI . & J"+ & '9N0"6"02+ & +" &,%1=;*+"02 & ='KG 3 & #166"& 01;+& (910+& ,;& )" & #10+2(2"% & (9"# & )"+ & *010=(2 *10+ & =(0+& )( &B102'%':*" & (;& ,% *02"6,+& ab]]3 & )"+ & ,%1F)N6"+& +'% *";E& = \'%1+ *10& ="+ & F"%:"+ & +;% & )( &JW2" & R1%=& =(0+& )"+ & ="%0*N%"+ & (00'"+ & ( *0+ * & M;"& ) L$ *9"% & ,(%2 *#; ) *N%"6"02& =1;E& "2 & )( &+'#$"%"++"& ="& ab]a. & J"+ & '9N0"6"02+ & "E2%e6"+& 102 & ="+ & #10+'M;"0#"+ & ='+(+2%";+"+ &"02%" & (;2%"+ & ,1;% & )"+ & *0>%(+2%;#2;%"+ & "2 & )"+ & %'#1)2"+ . & Z;2%" & )"+ & '9N0"6"02+ & "E2%e6"+3 &)( & %&'(&)*!+ , *-./+'0+1+0&(2+ , # 3(#(4&(& !-0, 4-.' , 2+5 , 67(0*+1+0&5 , 6 2 !1(& !8.+5 , 9:;<=9:9: & H45/JJ& ababI & ,%'91*2 & (;++ * & )"+ & '9N0"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& ,%1F(F)"+ & "2 & ,1++ *F )"+ &+; *9(02+ & X &

• ;0"&= *6*0;2 *10&=;&#1;9"%2 &="&: )(#"&"2 &="& )( &,'% *1="&=L"0:)(#"6"02o &

• ;0&%(##1;%# *++"6"02&="& )( &=;%'"&="& )( &+( *+10&$ *9"%0()"o &

• ;0"&= *6*0;2 *10&="& )( & > %'M;"0#"&"2 &="& ) L *02"0+ *2' &="+ &9(:;"+&="&>%1 *=o &

• ;0"&(##')'%(2 *10&="& )( & >102" &=;&,"%:') *+1 ) o &

• ="+&,'% *1="+&="&#(0*#;)" &, );+ & >%'M;"02"+ &"2 &, );+ &#$(;="+o &

• ="+&0 *9"(;E&=L"(;&"E2%e6"+&"0&Q10"+&#W2 *N%"+ & )1%+ &="+ &2"6,e2"+o &

• ;0"&(;:6"02(2 *10&="+ &%"=1;E&$ *9"%0(;Eo &

• ;0"& (;:6"02(2 *10& ="+ & > );#2;(2 *10+ & ="+ & 0 *9"(;E& =L"(;& H >1%2"+ & #%;"+ & "2 & '2 *(:"+ &, );+ &F(+I &#(;+(02 &="& ) L'%1+ *10&=(0+& )"+ &#1;%+ &= L"(;o &

• ;0&=',)(#"6"02&9"%+ & )" &01%=&="& )( & 2%( K"#21 *%" &="+ &2"6,e2"+o &

• ;0"& (;:6"02(2 *10& =;& 016F%"& 212( ) & =" & 2"6,e2"+ & 2%1,*#( )"+ & "2 & ="+ & 1;%(:(0+&, );+ & *02"0+"+o &

• ;0"&,%1)10:(2 *10&="+ &,'% *1="+ &="&+'#$"%"++"&"+2 *9( )" & H45/JJ&abab3kI . & &

&

8"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & (;%102 & ="+ & *6,(#2+ & +;% & ) L"09*%100"6"02& F[2 * 3 & # L"+2DGD= *%" & )"+ & *0>%(+2%;#2;%"+3 & #166"& ) L'%1+ *10& ="+ & %1;2"+3 & )( & >"%6"2;%"& ="& 2%10p10+& "0&%( *+10& =L *010=(2 *10+3 & )"+ & ='F1%="6"02+ & ="+ & ':1;2+ & 6;0*# *,(;E3 & )"+ & ,% *+"+ & = L"(;&,12(F)" 3 &( *0+ * &M;"&+;% & )"+ &'#1+O+2N6"+&"2 &"+,N#"+. &

Page 11: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 1

8( & = *+,(% *2 *10& ,%1:%"++ *9" & ="& )( & : )(#"& ="& 6"%& "2 & )( & >102" & =;& ,"%:') *+1 ) & =(0+ & )" & R1%=&M;'F'#1*+ & 102 & (;++ * & ="+ & *6,(#2+ & +;% & )( & 9 *" & ="+ & /;21#$210"+3 & )"+ & '#1+O+2N6"+3 & )"+ &*0>%(+2%;#2;%"+ & "2 & )"+ & F[2 *6"02+ . & 8"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& (;%102 & (;++ * & ="+ &*6,(#2+ & +;% & )( & M;() * 2' & ="& ) L"(;& "2 & )" & 2%(> *# & =(0+ & )( & 91 *" & 6(%*2 *6"& =;& 4( *02D8(;%"02 &H'2 *(:"& "E2%e6"& ,1++ *F )"I & "2 & +;% & )( & %',(%2 * 2 *10& ="+ & 9"#2";%+ & ="&6()(=*"+ & $;6(*0"+ & H, . &"E . &6()(=*" &="&8O6"I & H?/JJ&abab3 &kDcI . & &

J"%2( *0+ & +"#2";%+ & ="& ) L'#1016*"& M;'F'#1*+" & +"%102 & , );+ & (>>"#2'+ & M;"& =L(;2%"+ & ,(% & )"+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & 012(66"02& ) L(:% *#; )2;%"3 & ) L"E,)1 *2(2 *10& ="& %"++1;%#"+ &0(2;%") )"+ & H >1%e2+ 3 & 6*0"+I 3 & )( & ,%1=;#2 *10& $O=%1')"#2% *M;"& "2 & )" & 21;% *+6". & 4" )10& )" &:1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ 3 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& ,";9"02 & (;++ * & (91*% & ="+ &*6,(#2+ & +;% & f & )( & 9 * 2( ) * 2' & ="+ & "02%",% *+"+ &i & H45/JJ3 & _I 3 & +;%21;2 & + * & #" ) )"+D# * & 102 & ;0"&=',"0=(0#"& "09"%+ & )"+ & *0>%(+2%;#2;%"+ & ="& 2%(0+,1%2 3 & )"+ & %"++1;%#"+ & 0(2;%") )"+ 3 & ) L"(;&"2 & ) L'0"%: *" 3 & F *"0& M;"& ="& 01;9") )"+ & 1,,1%2;0*2'+ & ,;*++"02 & +" & #10#%'2 *+"% & "0& >10#2 *10&="+ & 01;9") )"+ & %'( ) * 2'+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & 012(66"02& =(0+& )" & =16(*0"& ="& ,%1=;*2+ & "2 &+"%9 *#"+ &%" ) *'+ &G & ) L(=(,2(2 *10&(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+& H45/JJ3 &_I . & &

8"+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& (;& A;'F"#& + L' )"9(*"02 & G & _]3_ & B2& 'M. & Jba & "0& abb^3 & #" & M;* &'M;*9(;2 & G & ]b3c & 2100"+& ="& 5U4 & ,(% & $(F*2(02 . & 8" & +"#2";% & ="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ & H+;%21;2 & )" &2%(0+,1%2 & %1;2 *"%I &"+2 & %"+,10+(F)" &="&ck3`m&="+ &'6*++ *10+ &="&5U4&(;&A;'F"#3 &#" ); * &=" &) L *0=;+2% *" &="&a_m3& )" & +"#2";% &=;&F[2 *6"02 &="&]cm3& ) L(:% *#; )2;%" &="&l 3^m3 & )"+ &6(2 *N%"+ &%'+ *=;") )"+ & ="&` 3^m&"2 & > *0( )"6"023 & )" & +"#2";% &="& ) L' )"#2% *# * 2' & '6"2& b 3_m&="+ & '6*++ *10+ &="& 5U4& (;& A;'F"#. & 8( & :%1++" & ,(%2 & ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& HlbmI& ,%19*"02 & ="& )( &,%1=;#2 *10&"2 & )( &#10+166(2*10&="&#(%F;%(02+ &"2 &="&#16F;+2 *F )"+ & H?/JJ&ab]a3 &lI . & &

J166"&01;+& )" & 9"%%10+& =(0+& #" & %(,,1%2 3 & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& 0"&+102 & ,(+ & 9'#;+ & ="& )( & 6e6"& >(p10& ,(% & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & #";ED# * & 102 & ="+ &%W )"+ & = * > >'%"02+ & G & K1;"% & =(0+& ) L(22'0;(2 *10& ="+ & 5U4& G & ) L1% *: *0"& =;& %'#$(;>>"6"02&, )(0'2( *%" . & 8"+ & *0+2%;6"02+ & "2 & )"+ & 1%:(0*+6"+& *02"%0(2 *10(;E& %"#100(*++"02 &) L *6,1%2(0#"& =L *02':%"% & ;0"& = *6"0+*10& ="& :"0%"& =(0+ & )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & ?1;%2(023 & )"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & "2 & 6"+;%"+ & )': *+ )(2 *9"+ & (=1,2'"+ & ,(% & )" & A;'F"#&+102 & 21;K1;%+ & + * )"0#*";+"+ & +;% & )( & = *6"0+*10& ="& :"0%"& G & )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & & 8" & !'+"(;& ="+ & >"66"+& "0& "09*%100"6"02& ( & =10#& (61%#'& #"22" &%"#$"%#$". &

>:?#&) ' 1* !0# ! 8, !%#&7#%&7# !8"+ &1FK"#2 * >+ &=" & )( &%"#$"%#$"&+102 & )"+ &+; *9(02+ & X &

]I d="02 * > *"% & )"+ & "0K";E& "2 & ,%'1##;,(2 *10+ & ="+ & A;'F'#1*+"+ & M;(02 & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+o &

Page 12: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 2

aI <[2 *% & ;0& (%:;6"02(*%" & +;% & ) L *6,1%2(0#"& ="+ & ) *"0+ & "02%" & )" & :"0%"& "2 & )"+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & ) L(%2 *#; )(2 *10&=;& :"0%"&'2(02 & 9;"& *# * & #166"&;0&(21;2 &=(0+& ;0"& :"+2 *10& (=(,2'"& ="+ & ">>"2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & =(0+ & )( &6*+" & "0&, )(#"&="& #$(0:"6"02+ & =(0+ & )"+ & #16,1%2"6"02+ & "2 & =(0+ & ) L *="02 * > *#(2 *10&=L *0019(2 *10+ &+1# *( )"+o &

kI J10+1) *="% & ;0& %'+"(;& M;'F'#1*+ & ="& #1 ) )(F1%(2 *10& "2 & = L(#2 *10& ,1) * 2 *M;"& +;% & )( &,%1F)'6(2*M;"& =;& :"0%"& "2 & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & %';0*++(02 & ="+ &:%1;,"+&="&>"66"+&"2 &="+ &:%1;,"+&"09*%100"6"02(;E3 &( *0+ * &M;"&="+ &='#*=";%+D"+ &,1) * 2 *M;"+ &"2 &'#1016*M;"+&=(0+& )" &=16(*0"&="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & &

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p10+& =102 & )"+ & M;"+2 *10+ & ="& :"0%"& +102 & ,% *+"+ & "0& #16,2"& =(0+& )( & );22" & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & ,(% & )"+ & :%1;,"+& "09*%100"6"02(;E& ( *0+ * & M;"& )"+ & ='# *=";%+D"+ &,1) * 2 *M;"+. & &

J166"& )"+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+& "2 & )"+ & :%1;,"+& "09*%100"6"02(;E& (9"# & )"+M;")+ & 01;+&(910+& #166;0*M;'&"2 & >( * 2 &="+ & %"0#102%"+ &0"& +"6F)( *"02 &,(+ &,%161;91*% & )( &= *6"0+*10&="& :"0%"& =(0+& )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & 01;+& (910+& ':()"6"02& #$"%#$'& G &#16,%"0=%"& ,1;%M;1* . & 7 *0( )"6"023 & )" & ,%1K"2 & ,%1,1+"& ="+& , *+2"+ & ="& %"#$"%#$"& ( *0+ * &M;"& ="+ & (9"0;"+& (> *0 & M;"& )( & = *6"0+*10& ="& :"0%"& +1 *2 & *02':%'" & (;E& )1 *+ 3 & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & "2 &(#2 *10+ & M;'F'#1*+"+ & "0& 6(2*N%" & ="& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & "2 & #"3 & (> *0 & = L(++;%"% &) L':() * 2' &"02%" & )"+ & >"66"+&"2 & )"+ &$166"+&"2 &="& ) L"> > *#(# *2' &="+ &6"+;%"+. &

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

Page 13: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 3

8( & =";E*N6"& '2(,"& =;& ,%1K"2 & ( & '2' & ="& #166;0*M;"%3 & (,%N+ & +' )"#2 *103 & (9"# & ="+ &:%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+3 & ="+ & :%1;,"+& "09*%100"6"02(;E& "2 & ="+ & ='# *=";%+D"+ & "2 &= L1%:(0*+"% & ="+ & (2" ) *"%+ & Hf & >1#;+ & :%1;,+&i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

R1;+& (910+& =10#& %"0#102%' & ="+ & ,"%+100"+& %",%'+"02(02 & # *0M& :%1;,"+&"09*%100"6"02(;E& q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a. & 8"+ & %"0#102%"+ &+" &+102 &='%1;)'"+ &"02%" &='#"6F%"&ab]]&"2 &+",2"6F%"&ab]a. & &

-#!<#(%#!&3$$#!3/)'8!04,(,8A*#!

!"#$%&"'

(")*"!" " "

#"$%"&%'(%")*+,"(-)-(%'.%"*/0"1221(,/'+,-3"%,"*,,(+4/,3"31.+*/0"*331.+-3"*/")*+,"567,(%"/'"8199%"1/"

/'%")%99%"%,"*/0"(%:*,+1'3"%',(%":%3")%99%3;":%3"8199%3;"%',(%":%3")+::%3"%,":%3"&*(<1'3"*+'3+"=/6*/0"

(%:*,+1'3" %',(%" )%99%3" %," %',(%" 8199%3>" ?%3" *,,(+4/,3;" 1221(,/'+,-3" %," (%:*,+1'3" 31'," 5%3"

.1'3,(/.,+1'3"31.+*:%3>"?%:*"3+&'+)+%"=/%".%"31',"5%3".1'3,(/.,+1'3"%,"5%3"2(15/+,3"5%":*"31.+-,-"%,;"%'"

.%:*;"+:3"2%/@%',"7,(%"915+)+-3"%,",(*'3)1(9-3>"A"BCD+''%("EFGE;"GF"H",(*5/.,+1'"5%":*"5-)+'+,+1'"5IJKL"

M%99%3N>"O1/(":*"5-)+'+,+1'"1(+&+'*:%"*'&:*+3%"5IJKL"M%99%3;"@1+("!""

8 , ,2 ! P PQQQ>/' >1(& PQ19%'Q*,.8 P13*& + P .1'.%2,3*'5%) +' + , +1'3 >8,9" N & & &

=">2"?%&20%"*2)"@A0-<2/2-1)"@(,/01,;%2)"*%"/,-,)1B&2"*%"CD82($''2/2-1"*%&0E(27"*2"(+6-8,&$--2/2-1"21"*2)"#0&@)"0"D1D"@$-10@1D"F"(+D1D"=G!="/0,)"'2&)$--2"-+D10,1"*,)'$-,E(2"'$%&"%-2"&2-@$-1&2"*0-)"(2"12/')"'&D8%"'$%&"(0"&2@A2&@A2:""

Page 14: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 4

$I+,-.$/+'")/*"'."0'0"#"0'%3,"5-)+'+%"5*'3":*"O1:+,+=/%"&1/@%('%9%',*:%"21/(":I-&*:+,-"%',(%":%3"

)%99%3"%,":%3"8199%3".199%"3/+,"!"

#"R%2/+3"=/%:=/%3"*''-%3;"1'".1'<1+,":I-&*:+,-".199%"/'%"'1,+1'"=/+"2(1213%"=/%":%3")%99%3"%,":%3"

8199%3" *+%'," 5%3" .1'5+,+1'3" -&*:%3" 21/(" %0%(.%(" 2:%+'%9%'," :%/(3" 5(1+,3;" 21/(" %02:1+,%(" :%/("

21,%',+%:"*+'3+"=/%"21/(".1',(+4/%("S":I-@1:/,+1'"21:+,+=/%;"-.1'19+=/%;"31.+*:%"%,"./:,/(%::%",1/,"%'"

2(1)+,*',"-&*:%9%',"5%".%3".8*'&%9%',3>"A"BO1:+,+=/%"-&*:+,-"EFFT;"ETN>"

O1/(" *,,%+'5(%" :I-&*:+,-;" :%" ?1'3%+:" 5/" 3,*,/," 5%" :*" )%99%" 5/" U/-4%." *59%," =/I+:" %3," #"%33%',+%:"

5I*59%,,(%"=/%" :*"31.+-,-"-,*4:+,"/'%"5+))-(%'.%"%',(%" :%"&(1/2%"5%3")%99%3"%,".%:/+"5%3"8199%3;"

=/%" .%,,%" 5+3,+'.,+1'" %3," 3V3,-9+=/%" %," =/I%::%" %3," *&&(*@-%" 2*(" 5I*/,(%3" )*.,%/(3" ,%::%3" :I1(+&+'%"

%,8'+=/%"%,":I1(+%',*,+1'"3%0/%::%>"A"BW?CM"EFGG;"EGN>""

!1-)-.20"'3$44+*")5$+"' 0".6)' ."0' 0"#"0'%3,"5-)+'+%"2*(" :%"C%.(-,*(+*,"S" :*".1'5+,+1'" )-9+'+'%".199%"

3/+,"!"

#"X" /'" 2(1.%33/3" 5I*'*:V3%" )*@1(+3*'," :I*,,%+',%" 5%" :I-&*:+,-" %',(%" :%3" )%99%3" %," :%3" 8199%3" 2*("

:I%',(%9+3%"5%3"1(+%',*,+1'3"%,"5%3"*.,+1'3"5*'3":%3":+%/0"5-.+3+1''%:3"5%":*"31.+-,-"3/(":%"2:*'":1.*:;"

(-&+1'*:" %," '*,+1'*:>" Y::%" *" 21/(" 14Z%," 5%" 5+3.%('%(" 5%" )*<1'" 2(-@%',+@%" :%3" %))%,3" 5+3,+'.,3" 3/(" :%3"

)%99%3"%," :%3"8199%3"=/%"21/((*"*@1+(" :I*512,+1'"5I/'"2(1Z%,"S" :I+',%',+1'"5%3".+,1V%''%3"%,"5%3"

.+,1V%'3;"%,".%;"3/(":*"4*3%"5%3"(-*:+,-3"%,"5%3"4%31+'3"5+))-(%'.+-3"5%3")%99%3"%,"5%3"8199%3>"Y::%"

3I%))%.,/%"*/".1/(3"5%":I-:*41(*,+1';"5%":*"9+3%"%'"[/@(%;"5%":I-@*:/*,+1'"%,"5/"3/+@+"5I/'"2(1Z%,>"R*'3"

.%(,*+'%3"3+,/*,+1'3;" :IWRC"9\'%(*"S" :I1))(%"5%"9%3/(%3"5+))-(%',%3"*/0")%99%3"%,"*/0"8199%3"%'"

@/%"5%"(-5/+(%":%3"+'-&*:+,-3>"A"BC%.(-,*( +*, "S " :* ".1'5+, +1'")-9+'+'%"EFF]; "^N >"

"

&

d ) & "+2 & *6,1%2(02 & ="& + *:0()"% & M;"& )"+ & = * > >'%"0#"+ & =(0+& )"+ & ,"%#",2 *10+3 & (22 * 2;="+ & "2 &%W )"+ & ="+ & >"66"+& "2 & ="+ & $166"+& =(0+& )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& ,";9"02 &e2%" & "0& :%(0="& ,(%2 *" & "E,) *M;'"+& ,(% & )"+ & %(,,1%2+ & +1# *(;E& ="& +"E"3 & )"+ & +2'%'12O,"+ &+"E;")+ & "2 & )( & = *9 *+ *10& +"E;'"& =;& 2%(9(* ) & H )"+ & >"66"+& '2(02 & "0#1%"& "0& :%(0="& ,(%2 *" &%"+,10+(F)"+ & ="+ & 2[#$"+ & 6'0(:N%"+ & "2 & ="+ & +1 *0+ & ="& )( & >(6* ) )"I . & J"+ & = * > >'%"0#"+ &=1*9"02 & e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d5U&ab]a3 & ]_I . & d ) & + L(: *2 & =10#& = L"E(6*0"% & G & )( & >1 *+ & ) L *6,(#2 & =;& :"0%"& +;% & )"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & ="&);22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & (> *0 &M;"& #" ) )"+ D# * & +1 *"02 & )" & , );+ & ">> *#(#"+ &,1++ *F )" 3 &

Page 15: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 5

(*0+ * & M;"& ) L *6,(#2 & ="& #"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & +;% & )"+ & %" )(2 *10+ & "02%" & )"+ & +"E"+3 & +;% & ) L':() * 2' & ="+ &>"66"+&"2 &="+ &$166"+3 &"2 &+;% & )"+ & *0':() * 2'+ &+1# *( )"+ &, );+ &:'0'%()"6"02. & & &

U0 &">>"2 3 &, );+ *";%+ &="+ &,(%2 *# *,(02"+ & %"0#102%'"+ &102 &+1;) *:0'&M;L * ) &'2( *2 & *6,1%2(02 &="&#10+*='%"% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +;% & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & )"+ & >"66"+3 &( *0+ * & M;"& )"+ & %W )"+ & ="+ & $166"+& "2 & ="+ & >"66"+& =(0+& )( & %'=;#2 *10& ="+ &5U4. & 8 L(,,%1#$"&="& :"0%"& "2 & 010& f & >"66"+&i & "+2 & =10#& ,% *9 * )': *'"& ,(% & )"+ & ,"%+100"+& %"0#102%'"+ & "2 &#10+2 * 2;"& ) L(,,%1#$"& #$1*+ *" & ,1;% & 012%" & (0()O+" 3 & M;* & 2"02"%( & = L"E(6*0"% & )"+ &= *6"0+*10+ & "2 & )"+ & *6,) *#(2 *10+ & =;& :"0%"& +;% & )"+ & = * > >'%"02+ & "0K";E& %" ) *'+ & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "2 & 010& + *6,)"6"02& )"+ & = * > >'%"0#"+ & "02%" & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & )"+ &>"66"+&HU d5U&ab]a3 &]_I . & &

d ) & >(;2 & (;++ * & +" & %(,,")"% & M;"& =L(;2%"+ & >(#2";%+ & 2" )+ & M;"& )( & # )(++" & +1# *1'#1016*M;"3 &) L'=;#(2 *103 & )"+ & %"9"0;+3 & )"+ & #10=*2 *10+ & ="& 2%(9(* ) & "2 & ="& 9 *" 3 & ( *0+ * & M;"& ="+ & >(#2";%+ &%" ) *'+ & G & ) L[:"3 & )( & %(#"3 & ) L"2$0*# * 2' & "2 & )( & #; )2;%" & =1*9"02 & (;++ * & e2%" & *02':%'+ & G & ;0"&(0()O+" &="&:"0%"&HU d5U&ab]a3]_I . & &

@0"& (0()O+" & ="& :"0%"& #166"& #") )" & M;"& 01;+& ,%1,1+10+& *# * & "+2 & >1%#'6"02& F(+'"& +;% &)"+ & +2'%'12O,"+ & +"E;")+ &M;(02 &(;E& %W )"+ &="+ & >"66"+&"2 &="+ &$166"+&=(0+ & )( & +1# *'2' &"2 &)( & >(6* ) )" . & A;"& )"+ & +2'%'12O,"+ & +"E;")+ & +1 *"02 & )( & #(;+"& 1;& )( & #10+'M;"0#"& ="&) L *0':() * 2' & "02%" & )"+ & +"E"+ & H/J47& ab]b3a_o & -"+#(%% *"+ & r& B(2$*"; & ab]bI 3 & * ) & ="6";%"&M;L;0"& (0()O+" & ="& :"0%"& #16,1%2" & )" & =(0:"% & ="& %"0>1%#"% & #"+ & +2'%'12O,"+ & (;& ) *"; & ="&)"+ & ='#10+2%; *%" . & ?(% & #102%"3 & )" & =(0:"% & ="& 0"& ,(+ & *02':%"% & ;0"& = *6"0+*10& ="& :"0%"& G &) L"0K";&="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ &(;E& )1 *+ &"2 &,1) * 2 *M;"+ &:1;9"%0"6"02()"+ &"+2 &, );+ &:%(0=. & U0 & ">>"2 3 & )"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & "2 & 6"+;%"+ & M;"& ,%1,1+"& )" & :1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ &% *+M;"02 & ="& ,1%2"% & (22" *02" & (;E& >"66"+& "2 & (;E& ,(;9%"+3 & "02%" & (;2%"+ 3 & "2 & =10#& ="&= *+#% *6*0"% & ="& >(p10& *0=*%"#2"3 & + * & " ) )"+ & +102 & (,,) *M;'"+& ="& >(p10& 0";2%". & -"& , );+ 3 & )"+ &6"+;%"+ & *0# *2(2 *9"+ & "2 & )"+ & #(6,(:0"+& = L'=;#(2 *10& ="+ & # * 21O"00"+& "2 & # * 21O"0+& =(0+ & )( &);22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +"%102 & ,%1F(F)"6"02& , );+ & ">> *#(#"+ & + * & " ) )"+ & +102 &# *F )'"+. &-(0+&#"22" &1,2 *M;"3 &;0"&(0()O+" &="&:"0%"&+ L *6,1+". & &

".*/8),)* !4(0+& 91;)1 *% & :'0'%() *+"% 3 & 91 *# * & )"+ & ,% *0# *,(;E& ,1*02+ & %"++1%2 *+ & ="+ & "02%"9;"+& %'() *+'"+ &=(0+& )" &#(=%"&="&#" &,%1K"2 &="&%"#$"%#$"& X &

o 8"+ & :%1;,"+& "09*%100"6"02(;E& (;EM;")+ & 01;+& (910+& ,(% )' & 0"& +" & ,%'1##;,"02 &,(+ &="+ &M;"+2 *10+ &="&:"0%"o &

o 8"+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+& (;EM;")+ & 01;+& (910+& ,(% )' & 0"& +" & ,%'1##;,"02 & ,(+ &= *%"#2"6"02& ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & F *"0& M;"& #"%2( *0+ & +1 *"02 & *02"%,")'+ &

Page 16: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 6

,(% & ="+ & M;"+2 *10+ & "09*%100"6"02()"+ 3 & +;%21;2 & + * & #" ) )"+ D# * & 102 & ;0& *6,(#2 & +;% & )( &+(02' &="+ & >"66"+&1;& )( &M;() * 2' &="&9 *"o &

o @0&"E(6"0&="+ &=1#;6"02+ &'6(0(02 &="+ &6*0*+2N%"+ &, );+ &= *%"#2"6"02&#10#"%0'+ &,(% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& HB--U7?& "2 &B!R7I & %'9N)" & M;"& #"+ &6*0*+2N%"+ &0"&+"6F)"02 &,(+ &+" &,%'1##;,"% &,(+ &="+ &M;"+2 *10+ &="&:"0%"o & &

o 8 L *6,)(02(2 *10& ="& ) L/-4& =(0+& )"+ & (#2 *10+ & :1;9"%0"6"02()"+ & +; *2 & ;0"& (,,%1#$"&,(% & ,%1K"2 3 & +;%21;2 & =(0+& )"+ & 6*0*+2N%"+ & #10#"%0'+ & ,(% & )"+ & M;"+2 *10+ & +1# *( )"+ &H( s0'H"I+ 3 & *66*:%(2 *103 &+(02'I o &

o 8"&B--U7?&"2 & )" &B!R&0L102 &,(+ &"0#1%"&="&,%1K"2 &= L *6,)(02(2 *10&=L/-4o &

o ?(%6*& )"+ & 6"6F%"+ & ="+ & #10+"* )+ & 6;0*# *,(;E& M;"& 01;+& (910+& %"0#102%'+ 3 &#"%2( *0+ & +102 & #10+# *"02+ & ="+ & "0K";E& ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "2 & ="+ &%',"%#;++ *10+ &+;% & )"+ &6;0*# *,() * 2'+ 3 &,(% &"E"6,)"&+;% & )"+ &#10=;*2"+ &, );9 *( )"+o &

o ?(% & #102%"3 & * ) & "E *+2" & "0#1%"& ;0"& #"%2( *0"& #10>;+ *10& "0& #" & M;* & #10#"%0"& )"+ &#(;+"+ & "2 & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & H,(% & "E"6,)"3 & (9"# & )( &#1;#$"&=L1Q10"I &(;,%N+ &="&M;")M;"+ &,"%+100"+&%"0#102%'"+o &

o 8"+ &,"%+100"+&M;"&01;+&(910+& %"0#102%'"+ &0"& #100(*++( *"02 &,(+ & )"+ & ) *"0+ &"02%" &)" &:"0%"&"2 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & +(;> &,1;% &#"%2( *0"+ &6* ) * 2(02"+ &=(0+& )" &6* ) *"; &"09*%100"6"02() 3 &6(*+ &#" ) )"+ D# * &+" &+"02"02 & *+1 )'"+o &

o 8"+ & "0K";E& ="& :"0%"& "2 & )"+ & "0K";E& "09*%100"6"02(;E& +102 & =10#& "0#1%"& 2%( *2'+ &"0& + * )1+ 3 & +(;> & ,1;% & )"+ & M;"+2 *10+ & "09*%100"6"02()"+ & 21;#$(02 & = *%"#2"6"02& )( &+(02' &="+ & >"66"+o &

o d ) & "+2 & *6,1%2(02 &="& #10+*='%"% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +;% & )"+ &$166"+&*, & )"+ & >"66"+3 & ( *0+ * & M;"& )"+ & %W )"+ & ="+ & $166"+&*, & ="+ & >"66"+& =(0+& )( &%'=;#2 *10& ="+ & 5U4. & 8 L(,,%1#$"& :"0%"& "2 & 010& f& >"66"+&i & "+2 & =10#& ,% *9 * )': *'"&,(% & )"+ &,"%+100"+&%"0#102%'"+o & &

o 8"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +102 & ,"%p;+ & #166"& '2(02 & )1 *02( *0+ &"0&2"6,+&"2 &"0&"+,(#"o &

o 8"& = *+#1;%+ & (;21;% & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "+2 & 2"#$0*M;"& "2 & 010&(##"++ *F )"o &

o ?);+ *";%+ & ,"%+100"+& *02"%9 *"t'"+& 102 & 6"02*100'& ) L *6,1%2(0#"& ="& 9;):(% *+"% & )" &= *+#1;%+ &"2 &="& )" &%"0=%"&f &,%(2 *#1D,%(2 *M;"&io &

Page 17: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 7

o ?1;%& M;"& )"+ & *0=*9 *=;+ & H$166"+& "2 & >"66"+I & K1;"02 & ;0& %W )" & =(0+& )( & );22" & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & * ) & >(;2 & )";% & "E,) *M;"% & #" & M;L * )+ & ,";9"02 & >( *%" & (;&M;12 *= *"0o & &

o 8"+ & >"66"+& =1*9"02 & (91*% & ;0"& , )(#"& ,(% *2( *%" & =(0+ & )"+ & *0+2(0#"+ & ='#*+ *100") )"+ &,;*+M;L" ) )"+ &%",%'+"02"02 & )( &61*2 *' &="& )( &,1,;)(2 *10o & &

o ?);+ *";%+ & ="+ & ,"%+100"+& %"0#102%'"+ & ,"0+"02 & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& ='#*="02 &(;2%"6"02&M;"& )"+ &$166"+3 &"02%" &(;2%"+ &+;% & )"+ &"0K";E&"09*%100"6"02(;Eo &

o />*0 & = L *0# *2"% & )"+ & 6*0*+2N%"+ & #10#"%0'+ & ,(% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & G &*02':%"% & )( & = *6"0+*10& :"0%"3 & )( & >-! , 5.' , 2+ , #)/+2-44+1+0&, #.'("2+ & ="9%( *2 & e2%" &61=*> *'" &,1;% &O & *0# );%" &+,'#* > *M;"6"02& ) L':() * 2' &"02%" & >"66"+&"2 &$166"+. &

B,0%#!638 ' ) '5/#!#) ! ?/%'0'5/#!,&)/#8 !U0& 2(02 & M;"& + *:0(2( *%"+ & = L *0+2%;6"02+ & ="& =%1*2 & *02"%0(2 *10() & =(0+ & )"+ & =16(*0"+ & ="& )( &,%12"#2 *10& ="& ) L"09*%100"6"02& "2 & ="& ) L':() * 2' & ="+ & >"66"+3 & )"+ & :1;9"%0"6"02+ &#(0(=*"0& "2 & M;'F'#1*+ & 102 & ="+ & 1F) *:(2 *10+ & M;(02 & G & ) L *02':%(2 *10& ="& )( & = *6"0+*10& ="&:"0%"&=(0+& )( & );22" &(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & & &

B ,0 % # ! ' ( ) # % ( , ) ' 3 ( , 8 !

8"& J(0(=(& "2 & )" & A;'F"#& 102 & = L(F1%=& + *:0'& )( & !"#$%#&'"#( )*+ ( , -. , '/'#0&'"#( 1%( &"*&%) (2"+/%)(1%(1')3+ '/'#0&'"#(4 ( , -.50+1(1%)( 2%//%)( HJU-U7I &"2 &+10&?%121#1)" & >(#;)2(2 * > &"0 &9"%2; & ="+M;")+ & * ) + & + L"0:(:"02 & G & #" & M;"& )";%+ & #1%,;+& )': *+ )(2 * >+ & +1 *"02 & "E"6,2+ & ="&= *+#% *6*0(2 *10&"09"%+ & )"+ & >"66"+. & &

8" &?%1:%(66"&=L(#2 *10&(=1,2'&G &<"* K *0: &G & )( &c" & &J10>'%"0#"&610=*( )" &="& ) LZR@&+;% & )"+ &>"66"+& "0& ]^^`3 & "2 & + *:0'& ,(% & )" & J(0(=(& "2 & )" & A;'F"#3 & '2(F) * 2 & (;++ * & ;0& ) *"0 & +1 ) *="&"02%" & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & ) L"09*%100"6"02. & 8" & ?%1:%(66"& =L(#2 *10& (%2 *#; )" & "0& 2%1 *+ & 91 )"2+ &)"+ &1F) *:(2 *10+ &="+ &T2(2+ &G & ) L':(%=&="+ & >"66"+&=(0+& )" &=16(*0"&="& ) L"09*%100"6"02X &

! " #$$%&'& ( %)' ( *+&, -. -*+, -/) ( +., -0' ( 1'$ ( 2'33'$ ( +%4 ( *& -$'$ ( 1' ( 15. -$ -/)$ ( ./).'&)+), (6 7')0 -&/))'3'), (8 ( ,/%$ ( 6'$ () -0'+%49 ( (

: " ;),5<&'& ( 6'$ ( ='$/ -)$ > ( *&5/..%*+, -/)$ ( ', ( /*-) -/)$ ( 1'$ ( 2'33'$ ( 1+)$ ( 6'$ ( */ 6 - , -?%'$ ( ', (*&/<&+33'$ (') ( 2+0'%& (1% (150' 6/**'3'), (1%&+=6' 9 (

@ " A')2/&.'& ( /% ( .&5'& ( 1'$ ( 35.+)-$3'$ ( +%4 ( ) -0'+%4 ( )+, -/)+6 > ( &5< -/)+6 ( ' , ( -),'&)+, -/)+6 (*/%& ( 50+6%'& ( 6 7 -3*+., ( 1'$ ( */6 - , -?%'$ ( 1' ( 150' 6/**'3'), ( ', ( 1' ( <'$, -/) ( 1' (

6 7')0 -&/))'3'), ($%& ( 6'$ ( 2'33'$ " ( BC' - D -)< (!EEF > (G=D'., - 2 $ (H "!IH "@J " (

Page 18: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 8

8"& A;'F"#& ( & = L( * ) )";%+ & %'(>> * %6'& +10& "0:(:"6"02& "09"%+ & )"+ & 1FK"#2 * >+ & =;& ?%1:%(66"&=L(#2 *10& )1%+ &=;&]b" & &(00*9"%+( *%" &="& )( &J10>'%"0#"&H/J47&ab]]3 &]^I . & & &

-"& , );+ 3 & )" & J(0(=(& ( & (=$'%'& (;E& ?"@+6& ! A5 , #., 1! 2 2)0(!'+ , 4-.' , 2+ , #)/+2-44+1+0& . & 8" &2%1 *+ *N6"& 1FK"#2 * > & M;"& )" & J(0(=(& "2 & )" & A;'F"#& +" & +102 & "0:(:'+ & G & (22" *0=%"& = L *# * & ab]`&"+2 & )( & ,%1612*10& ="& ) L':() * 2' & ="+ & +"E"+ & "2 & ) L(;21016*+(2 *10& ="+ & >"66"+3 & "02%" & (;2%"+ &"0& >(91% *+(02 & )( & ,(%2 *# *,(2 *10& ="& #" ) )"+D# * & =(0+ & )"+ & *0+2(0#"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & H/J47& ab]]3 &]_I . &

8 L *02':%(2 *10& ="& )( & = *6"0+*10& :"0%"3 & 1;& , );2W2 & =;& %W )" & ="+ & >"66"+& =(0+& ) L(#2 *10&*02"%0(2 *10()" & ,1;% & )( & ,%12"#2 *10& ="& ) L"09*%100"6"023 & =(2" & =;& 4166"2& ="& )( & u"%%" & G &! *1 &"0&]^^a. & 8( &B)62('(& !-0,#+,C !- , 5.' , 2 3+0/!'-00+1+0&,+& , 2+ ,#)/+2-44+1+0& & %"#100(s2 &2%N+ &+166(*%"6"02& )" &%W )" &="+ & >"66"+X & &

K (L'$ ( 2'33'$ ( /), ( %) ( &M 6' ( 0 - ,+ 6 ( 1+)$ ( 6+ ( <'$, -/) ( 1' ( 6 N')0 -&/))'3'), ( ', ( 6' (

150' 6/**'3'), " ( L'%& ( * 6' -)' ( *+&, -. -*+, -/) ( '$, ( 1/). ( '$$'), -' 6 6' ( 8 ( 6+ ( &5+6 - $+, -/) ( 1 N%) (

150' 6/**'3'), (1%&+=6' " (O (

-"&,);+ 3 & )" &?%1:%(66"&=L/#2 *10&a]3 &(;++ * &(=1,2'&G &! *1 3 & #10+(#%" &;0&#$(,*2%" &"02 *"% &(; &%W )" & ="+ & >"66"+& =(0+& )" & ='9")1,,"6"02& =;%(F)". & 8( & J109"02 *10& ="+ & R(2 *10+D@0*"+ &+;% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& HJR@JJI3 & (;++ * & (=1,2'"& G & ! *1 & "0& ]^^a3 & "2 & +10&?%121#1)" &="&PO121&="&]^^^3 &0"&6"02*100"02 &,1;%2(02 &,(+ & )"+ & >"66"+&1;& )" &:"0%". &J"&0 L"+2 & M;"& , );+ *";%+ & (00'"+& , );+ & 2(%=3 & G & )( & l" & J10>'%"0#"& ="+ & ?(%2 *"+ & ="& #"22" &#109"02 *10& 2"0;"& G & B(%%(v"#$& "0& abb]3 & M;"& )( & 78+"# "$%& 9:;<=>? & %(,,")(02 & )( &B)62('(& !-0, #+, D+! @ !0* 3 & %"#100(s2 & ) L *6,1%2(0#"& ="& )( & ,(%2 *# *,(2 *10& ="+ & >"66"+& =(0+&)"+ & 1%:(0"+ & ='#*+ *100")+ & ="& )( & JR@JJ& "2 & "0#1;%(:"& )"+ & ,(O+ & 6"6F%"+ & ="& )( &J109"02 *10&="&0166"%&="+ & >"66"+&=(0+&#"+ &,1+2"+ & HJR@JJ&abb]3 &,(%(.ajI . &

-",;*+ & )( & J10>'%"0#"& ="+ & ?(%2 *"+ & ="& <() * & "0 & abbl3 & )"+ & *0+2%;6"02+ & *02"%0(2 *10(;E&(=1,2'+ & "0& 9"%2; & ="& )( & JR@JJ& *02N:%"02 & ;0"& = *6"0+*10& ="& :"0%". & w & #"22" & %"0#102%" &="+ &,(%2 *"+ 3 & )" & :%1;,"&5)1F() &5"0="% & (0=&J ) *6(2"&/) ) *(0#"& H55J/I & ( & '2' & >1%6'&(> *0 &="&+ L(++;%"% & M;"& )"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+3 & )"+ & ='#*+ *10+ & "2 & )"+ & *0 *2 *(2 *9"+ & 9 *+(02 & )( & );22" & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & *02N:%"02 & )( & = *6"0+*10& ="& :"0%"3 & "2 & #"3 & G & 21;+ & )"+ & 0 *9"(;E&='#*+ *100")+ . & T:()"6"023 & )1%+ & ="& #"22" & 6e6"& %';0*103 & )" & :%1;,"& 5"0="% & r& J ) *6(2"&J$(0:"& ( & '2' & #%''. & d ) & + L(: *2 & =;& , );+ & :%1+ & %'+"(;& ="& >"66"+3 & ="& #$"%#$";%+D"+ & "2 &= L(#2 *9 *+2"+ & q;9%(02 & ,1;% & )( & K;+2 *#" & # ) *6(2 *M;"& "0& 6(2*N%" & ="& :"0%". & ?(% & )( & #%'(2 *10&="& #"+ & 1%:(0*+(2 *10+3 & )( & #166;0(;2'& *02"%0(2 *10()" & %"#100(s2 & M;"& )( & M;"+2 *10& =;&:"0%"&"+2 &(; &#q;%&="& )( &,%1F)'6(2*M;"&=;&# ) *6(2& Hx"66(2* &abb_I . & &

Page 19: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 1 9

-"& ,);+ 3 & )( &78+"# "$%& @;<=>@: 3 & (=1,2'"& G & J(0#;0& )1%+ & ="& )( & ]j" & J10>'%"0#"& ="+ & ,(%2 *"+ &G & )( & JR@JJ3 & #10+2(2" & M;"& ) L':() * 2' & ="+ & +"E"+ & "2 & )( & ,(%2 *# *,(2 *10& ">>"#2 *9" & ="+ & >"66"+&+102 & *6,1%2(02"+ &=(0+ &21;+ & )"+ &(+,"#2+ &="& )( & );22" &(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ & X &

l . & C+6-00(E& , M;"& =" &6;)2 *, )"+ & ,(%2 *"+ & ,%"0(02"+ & =1 *9"02 & e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o & &

]a . & FAA ! '1+, M;"& ) L(#2 *10 & %"0>1%#'" & ,1;% & ) L(=(,2(2 *10 & ="9%( * 2 & e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o & HJR@JJ& ab]]3 &,(%(+ &l &"2 &]aI . &

B ,0 % # ! 5 / .: . & 3 ' * !

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e6"3 & )"+ & )1 *+ 3 & ,1) * 2 *M;"+3 & +2%(2':*"+ & "2 & , )(0+ &= L(#2 *10& 9 *+(02 & )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& 0 L *02N:%"02 & ,(+ & ;0"& (,,%1#$"&:"0%'". & ?1;%2(02 3 & )" & A;'F"#& + L"+2 & =100'& ="+ & 1F) *:(2 *10+3 & 1FK"#2 * >+ & "2 & 1;2 * )+ & (> *0 &= Le2%" &"0&6"+;%"&="& )" & >( *%" . & &

u1;2 &= L(F1%=3 & )( &G7('&+ ,#+5 , #'- !&5 , +& , 2 !"+'&)5 , #+, 2( , 4+'5-00+, *02"%=*2 & )( & = *+#% *6*0(2 *10&+" )10& )" & +"E"&"2 &,%'# *+" &=(0+ & +10&,%'(6F;)" & H=",;*+ & abb_I &M;"& )"+ &=%1 *2+ &="& )( &J$(%2" &+102 & :(%(02 *+ & ':()"6"02& (;E& >"66"+& "2 & (;E & $166"+. , -"& ,);+ 3 & ="+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ &:1;9"%0"6"02()"+ & "0& 6(2 *N%" & = L':() * 2' & "E *+2"02 & =",;*+ & )( & > *0 & ="+ & (00'"+& lb. & & ? );+ &%'#"66"023 & )" & :1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ & ( & (=1,2'& ;0"& ,1) * 2 *M;"& :1;9"%0"6"02()" & "0&abbj& "2 & =";E& , )(0+ & = L(#2 *10& :1;9"%0"6"02(;E& ,1;% & ) L':() * 2' & "02%" & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )"+ &$166"+& abblDab]b& "2 & ab]]Dab]`3 & #" & ="%0*"% & #16,%"0(02 & , );+ & ="& ]bb& (#2 *10+ & +1;+& l &

Page 20: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 0

1%*"02(2 *10+ & "2 & ( ) ) *(02 & aj& 6*0*+2N%"+ & "2 & 1%:(0*+6"+ & H )" & B--U7?& "2 & )" & B!R& 0"& +" &%"2%1;9"02 &,(+ &+;% &#"22" & ) * + 2" 3 &6(*+ &#10+2 * 2;"02 &="+ &f &6*0*+2N%"+ &#1 ) )(F1%(2";%+ &iI $ , ,

8( & H-2 ! & !8.+, 5.' , 2 3)*(2 ! &) , +0&'+ , 2+5 , A+11+5, +& , 2+5 , 7-11+5 & ,%W0"& ) L(,,%1#$"&2%(0+9"%+( )" 3 & "E *:"(02 & M;"& f& )"+ & (#2 *10+ & :1;9"%0"6"02()"+ & G & ,1%2'"& :'0'%()" & +1 *"02 &,"0+'"+ & "2 & #10p;"+& "0& 2"0(02 & #16,2"& ="& )";% & ">>"2 & +;% & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )"+ & $166"+3 &=(0+ & )" & F;2 & = L'9 *2"% & M;L" ) )"+ & "02%( s0"02 & ;0& #%";+"6"02& ="+ & *0':() * 2'+ . &i & H/J47& ab]]3 &kcI . & /;2%"6"02& = *2 3 & ;0"& (0()O+" & = * > >'%"0#*'"& +" )10& )"+ & +"E"+ & ="9%( *2 & e2%" & ">>"#2;'"&,1;% & 21;2"+ & )"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & "2 & (#2 *10+ & :1;9"%0"6"02()"+ & (> *0 & = L'9 *2"% & M;"& )"+ & *6,(#2+ &="& #" ) )"+D# * & (::%(9"02 & )"+ & *0':() * 2'+ & "E *+2(02"+ & "02%" & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )"+ & $166"+. &J$(#;0& ="+ & 6*0*+2N%"+ & "2 & 1%:(0*+6"+& '2(2 *M;"+ & "0& "+2 & %"+,10+(F)" & H/J47& ab]]3 & kjI . &8" & J10+"* ) & =; & +2(2;2 & ="& )( & >"66"3& =(0+& ;0& (9 *+ & ,;F) *' & "0& ab]]3 & >( * 2 & )"+ &%"#166(0=(2 *10+ &+; *9(02"+ &#10#"%0(02 & ) L':() * 2' &="+ &+"E"+& X &

!P " ( Q%' ( 6' ( R/)$' - 6 ( '45.%, - 2 ( '4 -<' ( 1'$ ( 3-)-$,S&'$ ( ', ( /&<+)-$3'$ ( ?%' ( ,/%, ( 353/-&' (

15*/$5 ( +% ( R/)$' - 6 ( 1'$ ( 3-)-$,&'$ ( ./3*&'))' ( %)' ( )/%0'6 6' ( $'., -/) ( 15.& -0+), (

6 7 -) 2 6%').' (1' ( 6+ (3'$%&' (')0-$+<5' ($%& ( 6 75<+6 - ,5 ('),&' ( 6'$ ( ( 2'33'$ (', ( 6'$ (T/33'$ " (

!! " ( Q%' ( 6'$ (3-)-$,S&'$ ( ', ( 6'$ ( /&<+)-$3'$ ( $' ( 0/ -'), ( +../&1'& ( 1'$ ( &'$$/%&.'$ ( T%3+-)'$ (

', ( 2 -)+).-S&'$ ( $% 2 2 - $+),'$ ( */%& ( $/%,')-& ( 6 7+**6 -.+, -/) ( 1' ( 6 7+)+6U$' ( 1 - 2 25&').-5' ( $' 6/) (

6'$ ( $'4'$ (', (*'&3',,&' (?%' (.',,' (+)+6U$' ($/ - , ( &5+ 6 - $5' (' 2 2 -.+.'3'), " (

!: " ( Q%' ( 1'$ ( $*5. -+ 6 - $ ,'$ ( ') ( +)+6U$' ( 1 - 2 25&').-5' ( $' 6/) ( 6'$ ( $'4'$ ( $/ -'), ( 3-$ ( 8 ( 6+ (

1 -$*/$ - , -/) ( 1'$ ( 3-)-$,S&'$ ( ', ( 1'$ ( /&<+)-$3'$ ( *+& ( 6' ( V'.&5,+& -+, ( 8 ( 6+ ( ./)1-, -/) (

253-)-)' ( ') ( )/3=&' ( $%2 2 - $+), ( */%& ( $/%,')-& ( 6 7+**&/*& -+, -/) ( 1' ( .',,' ( +**&/.T' ( *+& (

.'%4I. - ( + -)$ - ( ?%' ( 6+ ( ./T5&').' ( 1' ( 6 7+., -/) ( </%0'&)'3'),+6' ( ') ( 3+, -S&' ( 1 7+)+6U$' (

1 - 2 25&').-5' ($' 6/) ( 6'$ ( $'4'$ " (

& y &

8" & :1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ & ( & (;++ * & (=1,2'& ;0& H2(0, # 3(6& !-0, +0, 1(&!I'+ , # 3FB%, 9:;;=9:;J$ , ?(% & #102%"3 & )"+ & 6*0*+2N%"+ & (O(02 & ">>"#2;'& 1;& "09*+(:'& )"+ & (#2 *10+ & #10#"%0(02 &) L/-4& 0"& #16,%"00"02 & 0 * & )" & B!R& 0* & )" & B--U7?. & -"+ & k`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q;9%(02 & =(0+& )" & , * ) *"% & 2O, *M;"6"02&f &+1# *( ) &i & =;& ='9")1,,"6"02& =;%(F)" 3 & 6e6"& + * & ) L *='"& 1% *: *0( )" & ="& ) L(,,%1#$"&2%(0+9"%+( )" &'2( *2 &= L *6,) *M;"% & 21;+ & )"+ &6*0*+2N%"+ &"2 &1%:(0*+6"+&:1;9"%0"6"02(;E. & 8" &#(=%"& )': *+ )(2 * > & "+2 & ,";2De2%" & *0+;>> *+(02 & ,1;% & *0# *2"% & 21;+ & )"+ & 6*0*+2N%"+ & G & (,,) *M;"% &#"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+3 & ,;*+M;"& )( , >- ! , 5.' , 2+ , #)/+2-44+1+0&, #.'("2+ 3 & M; * & '2(F) * 2 & ;0& #(=%"&)': *+ )(2 * > & ,1;% & 21;2"+ & )"+ & ='# *+ *10+ & =;& :1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ & "2 & 6"02*100"& ,(%6* &

Page 21: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 1

)"+ & ,% *0# *,"+ & = *%"#2";%+ & ) L':() * 2' & +1# *( )" 3 & 0" & 6"02*100"& ,(+ & +,'#* > *M;"6"02& ) L':() * 2' &"02%" & )"+ & >"66"+&"2 & )"+ &$166"+. & &

B():%' & )"+ &1;2 * )+ & (=1,2'+ &,(% & )" &:1;9"%0"6"02&M;'F'#1*+ &,1;% & ) L':() * 2' &="+ & +"E"+3 & )"+ &,1) * 2 *M;"+ & "2 & )"+ & , )(0+ & = L(#2 *10& M;'F'#1*+ & "0& 6(2*N%" & ="& );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +102 & + * )"0#*";E& +;% & #" ) )"D# * & "2 & 0 L *02N:%"02 & ,(+ & ;0"& (0()O+" & = * > >'%"0#*'"&+" )10& )"+ &+"E"+. & &

8" & H2(0, # 3(6& !-0, 5.' , 2+5 , 67(0*+1+0&5 , 6 2 !1(&!8.+5 , 9:;<=9:9:, H?/JJ& ababI & 9 *+" & =";E&:%(0="+& (#2 *10+ & (;& A;'F"#& X & )( & %'=;#2 *10& ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& "2 & ) L(=(,2(2 *10& H1;&) L(6') *1%(2 *10&="& )( &%'+ * ) *"0#"I &(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & ,

4;% & )" & , )(0& ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="+ & 5U43 & )" & A;'F"#& + L"+2 & > *E' & ;0"& # *F )" & ="& abm& ="& %'=;#2 *10&="&5U4&+1;+& )" &0 *9"(;&="&]^^b&"2 &#"3 &(9(02 & ) L(00'"&abab. & &

8" & ?/JJ& abab& 6*+" & +;% & ="+ & *02"%9"02 *10+ & 2%(0+9"%+( )"+ & "2 & +"#21% *" ) )"+ & M;* & +" &,%e2"%( *"02 & ,1;%2(02 & G & ) L *02':%(2 *10& =;& :"0%"3 & 012(66"02& ) L(6'0(:"6"02& =;&2"%% * 21 *%" & "2 & )( & :"+2 *10& ="+ & % *+M;"+3 & )" & ='9")1,,"6"02& ="& #100(*++(0#"+3 & =" & +(91*%D>( *%" & "2 & ="& 2"#$01)1:*"+ 3 & =" & +"0+ *F * ) * +(2 *10& "2 & ="& >1%6(2*103 & ( *0+ * & M;"& )"+ &*02"%9"02 *10+ & =(0+ & )"+ & +"#2";%+ & ="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ 3 & ="+ & F[2 *6"02+ 3 & ="+ & 6(2 *N%"+ &%'+ *=;") )"+ & "2 & ) L(:% *#; )2;%" & H?/JJ& abab3 & jI . & -"& , );+ 3 & * ) & 6"02 *100"& )( & ,(%2 *# *,(2 *10& ="+ &*0=*9 *=;+ & X &

W+& ( $/) ( */%0/-& ( 1 7 -) 2 6%').'& ( ', ( 1' ( 3/1'6'& ( )/$ ( .T/-4 ( 1' ( </%0'&)+).' > ( 1' (

*&/1%., -/) ( ', ( 1' ( ./)$/33+,-/) > ( .T+.%) ( ', ( .T+.%)' ( 1 7'),&' ( )/%$ ( *'%, ( +<-& (

*/%& ( /& -'),'& ( 6+ ( $/. -5,5 ( ?%5=5./-$' ( 1+)$ ( 6+ ( 0/ -' ( 1% ( 150' 6/**'3'), ( 1%&+=6' " ( L+ (

*+&, -. -*+, -/) ( +%4 ( 15=+,$ ( 1' ( $/. -5,5 ( */%& ( 2+ -&' ( 0+ 6/ -& ( 6+ ( *& -$' ( ') ( ./3*,' ( 1'$ (

.T+)<'3'),$ ( . 6 -3+, -?%'$ > ( 6' ( .T/-4 ( 1' ( *&/1%-,$ ( 6/.+%4 ( ', ( *'% ( -),')$ - 2 $ ( ') (

.+&=/)' ( /% ( ')./&' ( 6 7%, - 6 - $+, -/) ( 1' ( 6 7+%,/=%$ ( /% ( 1% ( 05 6/ ( */%& ( 6'$ ( 15*6+.'3'),$ (

'),&' ( 6' ( ,&+0+- 6 ( ' , ( 6+ (3+-$/) ( $/), ( 1'$ ( '4'3*6'$ ( 1 7+., -/)$ ( ./).&S,'$ ( ') (3+,-S&' (

1' (.T+)<'3'),$ (. 6 -3+, -?%'$ (', (1' (150' 6/**'3'), (1%&+=6' : " H#IJJ"=G=G7 "!KL (

&

/> *0 & = L(22" *0=%"& +"+ & 1FK"#2 * >+ & ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="& 5U43 & )" & ?/JJ& abab&6*+" & ':()"6"02& +;% &)"+ & *02"%9"02 *10+ & ="& 0(2;%"& 2"#$0*M;"& ( *0+ * & M;"& +;% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & ="&#16,1%2"6"02+ & H?/JJ&abab3 &abI . & &

B()$";%";+"6"023 & )" & ?/JJ& "+2 & + * )"0# *";E& +;% & )" & :"0%"3 & # L"+2DGD= *%" & +;% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ &= * > >'%"0#*'+ & ="& #"+ & *02"%9"02 *10+ & +;% & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & +;% & )"+ & = * > >'%"02+ &%W )"+ &M;"&#";ED# * &,";9"02 & K1;"% &=(0+ & )( &%'=;#2 *10&="+ &'6*++ *10+ &5U4. &

J10#"%0(02 & ) L(=(,2(2 *10& (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & )" & ?/JJ& abab& *="02 * > *" & )"+ &"0K";E& ,% *0# *,(;E& #166"& '2(02 & )" & F *"0De2%" & ="& )( & ,1,;)(2 *10& "2 & ="+ & #166;0(;2'+3 & )( &

Page 22: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 2

,1;%+;*2" & ="+ & (#2 *9 * 2'+ & '#1016*M;"+3 & )( & ,'%"00*2' & ="+ & F[2 *6"02+ & "2 & ="+ &*0>%(+2%;#2;%"+ &"2 & )" &6(*02 *"0&="+ &+"%9 *#"+ &'#1)1:*M;"+ &"++"02 *" )+ & H?/JJ&abab3 &lI . & &

8" & ?/JJ& abab& >( *2 & (;++ * & %'>'%"0#"& G & , );+ *";%+ & (;2%"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & "2 & +2%(2':*"+ & H, . & "E . &6(2 *N%"+ & %'+ *=;") )"+ 3 & ='9")1,,"6"02& =;%(F)"3 & %"#$"%#$"& "2 & *0019(2 *103 & "2# . I 3 &6(*+ & 0"&>( *2 & (;#;0"& %'>'%"0#"& (;E& , )(0+ & = L(#2 *10& ,1;% & ) L':() * 2' & "02%" & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & )"+ &>"66"+& "2 & ,1;% & ) L/-4. & ?1;%2(02 3 & 10& >( *2 & %'>'%"0#"& (;E& f &">>"2+ & +(0*2( *%"+ & (##%;+ & ="& )( &,1) );2 *10&(261+,$'% *M;"&"2 &="+ & *0':() * 2'+ &+1# *( )"+ &i & H?/JJ&abab3 &]cI . & &

U0 & #" & M;* & #10#"%0"& )" & ='9")1,,"6"02& ="+ & #100(*++(0#"+3 & )" & ?/JJ& abab&6"02*100"& )( &#%'(2 *10& =L;0& ,%1:%(66"& ="& %"#$"%#$"& +;% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & +1# *1'#1016*M;"+& ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& f &"0& %":(%=& ="& , );+ *";%+ & +"#2";%+ & '#1016*M;"+ &i & "2 & +;% &) L'2;="& =;& %(,,1%2 & #1z2DF'0'> *#" & ="+ & 6"+;%"+ & = L(=(,2(2 *10& H?/JJ& abab3 & ]cI . & U0#1%"&;0"&>1 *+ 3 & ) L *6,1%2(0#"&=L *02':%"% & )( &= *6"0+*10&="&:"0%"&0 L"+2 &,(+ &%"#100;". &

-"& , );+ 3 & )" & ?/JJ& %"#100(s2 & ) L *6,1%2(0#"& ="& )( & = * > >;+ *10& ="+ & #100(*++(0#"+ & "2 & ="+ &1;2 * )+ & =" & +"0+ *F * ) * +(2 *10& "2 & ,%'91*2 & "02%" & (;2%"+ & )( & #%'(2 *10& =L;0& + * 2" & d02"%0"2 &:1;9"%0"6"02() & = L *0>1%6(2*10+ & +;% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & H?/JJ& abab3 & ]`I . &B():%' & )"+ & ) *"0+ & M;* & "E *+2"02 & "02%" & )" & :"0%"& "2 & )"+ & ,"%#",2 *10+ & "2 & )"+ & (22 * 2;="+ & ="+ &*0=*9 *=;+ & "09"%+ & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & #166"& 01;+& )" & 9"%%10+ & , );+ & F(+3 & )" &?/JJ&0L"0&>( *2 &,(+ &6"02*10. & &

8" & :1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ & ( & ':()"6"02& (=1,2'& )( & %&'(&)*!+ , *-./+'0+1+0&(2+ ,# 3(#(4&(& !-0, (.K, 67(0*+1+0&5 , 6 2 !1(&!8.+5 , 9:;<=9:9:, H45/JJI & (> *0 & = L(++;%"% & M;"& )( &,1,;)(2 *10& M;'F'#1*+" & +1 *2 & "0 & 6"+;%"& ="& + L(=(,2"% & (;E& *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & & 8( & 45/JJ& %",1+"& +;% & )"+ & 6e6"+& :%(0=+& "0K";E& M;"& )" & ?/JJ& "2 & '2(F) * 2 &$;*2 &1% *"02(2 *10+ & X &

• d02':%"% & ) L(=(,2(2 *10&(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ &G & ) L(=6*0*+2%(2 *10&,;F) *M;"o &

• -'9")1,,"% & )"+ &#100(*++(0#"+ &"2 & )"+ &+(91*%D >( *%" & H+;% &#" &,1*02 3 & )( &42%(2':*" &012"&) L *6,1%2(0#"&="&6*";E&=1#;6"02"% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ &+1# *(;E&"2 &'#1016*M;"+&="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+I o &

• 4"0+*F * ) * +"% &"2 & >1%6"%o &

• /6'0(:"% & )" & 2"%% * 21 *%" &"2 &:'%"% & )"+ &% *+M;"+ &="&>(p10&G &%'=;*%" & )"+ &9; )0'%(F* ) * 2'+ o &

• B(*02"0*% & )( &+(02' &="+ & *0=*9 *=;+ &"2 &="+ &#166;0(;2'+o &

• ?%'+"%9"% & )( &,%1+,'% *2' &'#1016*M;"o &

Page 23: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 3

• !"0>1%#"% & )( &,'%"00*2' &"2 & )( &+'#;% *2' &="+ &F[2 *6"02+ &"2 &="+ & *0>%(+2%;#2;%"+o &

• J10+"%9"% & )( &F *1=*9"%+ * 2' &"2 & )"+ &F'0'> *#"+ &1>>"%2+ &,(% & )"+ &'#1+O+2N6"+. & &

< *"0& M;"& , );+ *";%+ & ="& #"+ & "0K";E& "2 & 1% *"02(2 *10+ & #16,%"00"02 & ;0"& = *6"0+*10& ="&:"0%"& *0='0*(F)"3 &#166"& )" &?/JJ&abab3 & )( &45/JJ&="6";%"&+ * )"0# *";+"&M;(02 &(;&:"0%"&=(0+& ) L(=(,2(2 *10&(;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & ?(% &"E"6,)"3 & )( & 45/JJ& %"#100(s2 &M;"&#"%2( *0"+ & ,"%+100"+& , );+ & 9;)0'%(F)"+ & +102 & +;+#",2 *F )"+ & ="& +;F*% & =(9(02(:"& )"+ &*6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & #166"& )"+ & ,"%+100"+& M;* & +102 & "0& 6(;9(*+" &+(02'3 & )"+ &,"%+100"+&$(F*2(02 &="+ & )1:"6"02+ &"0&6(;9(*+ &'2(2 3 & )"+ &,(;9%"+3 & )"+ &"0>(02+ &"2 & )"+ & ,"%+100"+& [:'"+ & H45/JJ3 & `I 3 & +(0+ & 21;2">1 *+ & 6"02*100"% & M;"& )( & , );,(%2 & =;&2"6,+3 & #"+ & ,"%+100"+& 9;)0'%(F)"+ & +102 & ="+ & >"66"+. & 8 L(;:6"02(2 *10& ="+ & * )12+ & ="&#$()";% &;%F(*0+ &"2 & )";%+ & *6,(#2+ &0'>(+2"+ & +;% & )( & +(02'& +102 &(;++ * & %"#100;+& H45/JJ3 &`I 3 &6(*+ & )" & >( * 2 & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& +1 *"02 & , );+ & 21;#$'"+& ,(% & #"+ & ,$'016N0"+& M;"& )"+ &$166"+&,(++"&+1;+ &+ * )"0#". &

/> *0 & ="& + L(=(,2"% & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & )" & :1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ & = *2 & M;L * ) &"+2 & *6,1%2(02 &="& %'=;*%" & )"+ &9;)0'%(F* ) * 2'+ &="+ &f &#16,1+(02"+ & +"0+*F )"+ » ( "2 &=10#&="&F *"0&'9();"% & #" ) )"+D# * I 3 &012(66"02& )"+ & *0=*9 *=;+3 &"2 &= L(##%1s2%" & )( & %'+ * ) *"0#"&="&#" ) )"+ D# * & H45/JJ3 & ]aD]kI . & Z% 3 & #166"& 01;+& ( ) )10+ & )" & 91 *% 3 & "0 & %( *+10& ="+ & *0':() * 2'+ & "0#1%"&"E *+2(02"+ & "02%" & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )"+ & $166"+3 & #" ) )"+D# * & +102 & , );+ & +;+#",2 *F )"+ & = Le2%" &9;)0'%(F)"+ & (;E& *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & #" & M;* & 0 L"+2 &6()$";%";+"6"02&,(+ &%"#100;&=(0+& )( &+2%(2':*" &:1;9"%0"6"02()" . & &

{{{&

71%#"& "+2 & ="& #10+2(2"% & M;"& )" & #(=%"& K;% *= *M;"& "2 & ,1) * 2 *M;"& (#2;") & ,1;% & )( & );22" & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & (;&A;'F"#& 0L *02N:%"& ,(+ & )( & = *6"0+*10& ="& :"0%" 3 &6e6"& + * & )" &:1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ & ( & 6*+ & +;% & , *"=& ="+ & , )(0+ & = L(#2 *10& ,1;% & ) L':() * 2' & "02%" & )"+ &$166"+& "2 & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & ,1;% & ) L *6,)(02(2 *10& ="& ) L/-4. & d ) & +"6F)" & M;"& )"+ & "0K";E&+1# *(;E& "2 & "09*%100"6"02(;E& +1 *"02 & "0#1%"& 2%( *2'+ & "0& + * )1+ & "2 & M;"& ) L(,,%1#$"&2%(0+9"%+( )" & ,%W0'"& ,(% & )" & :1;9"%0"6"02& 0 L"+2 & ,(+ & "0#1%"& (,,) *M;'"& (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & -"& , );+ 3 & * ) & +"6F)" & M;"& )"+ & (#2 *10+ & =;& :1;9"%0"6"02& "0&6(2 *N%" & = L':() * 2' & ="+ & +"E"+ & 1;& =L/-4& +102 & ,1;% & )( & , );,(%2 & %" )(O'"+ & (;& , * ) *"% & +1# *( ) & =;&='9")1,,"6"02&=;%(F)" &"2 &0"&+102 &,(+ & *02':%'"+ &(; &, * ) *"% &"09*%100"6"02() . &8 L(F+"0#"&="& )( & = *6"0+*10& "09*%100"6"02()" & =(0+& )( & ,1) * 2 *M;"& +;% & ) L':() * 2' & "+2 &6e6"& +1;) *:0'"&,(% & )" & J10+"* ) & =; & +2(2;2 & ="& )( & >"66"& H/J47& ab]]3 & ]k]I 3 & M;* & >( * 2 & = L( * ) )";%+ & )"+ &%"#166(0=(2 *10+ &+; *9(02"+ &=(0+&+10&(9 *+ &,;F) *' &"0&ab]]X &

X! " ( Q%' ( 6' ( *&/.T+-) ( * 6+) ( 1 7+., -/) ( ') ( 3+,-S&' ( 1 75<+6 - ,5 ( '),&' ( 6'$ ( 2'33'$ ( ', ( 6'$ (

T/33'$ ( -),S<&' ( 6+ ( ?%'$, -/) ( ')0-&/))'3'),+6' ( ', ( $'$ ( 6 -')$ ( +0'. ( 6+ ( $+),5 ( 1'$ ( 2'33'$ (

', ( 6+ ( $+),5 (&'*&/1%., -0' ( Y (

Page 24: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 4

• ') ( + D/%,+), ( 1'$ ( +., -/)$ ( 8 ( 6 7/& -'),+, -/) ( X > ( Z'&$ ( %)' ( * 6%$ ( <&+)1' ( *+&, -. -*+, -/) ( 1'$ (

2'33'$ (+%4 ( -)$,+).'$ (15. -$ -/))'6 6'$ ( Y (

- 2+0/& -$'& ( 6+ ( )/3-)+, -/) ( 1' ( 2'33'$ ( + -)$ - ( ?%' ( 6+ ( *& -$' ( ') ( ./3*,' ( 1' ( 6'%&$ (

*&5/..%*+, -/)$ ( ', ( 1' ( 6'%&$ ( ='$/ -)$ ( 1+)$ ( 6'$ ( -)$,+).'$ ( ,&+ - ,+), ( 1'$ (

?%'$, -/)$ (5)'&<5, -?%'$ (', (')0-&/))'3'),+6'$ " (

X: " ( Q%' ( 6' ( *&/.T+-) ( * 6+) ( 1 7+., -/) ( ') ( 3+,-S&' ( 1 75<+6 - ,5 ( '),&' ( 6'$ ( 2'33'$ ( ', ( 6'$ (

T/33'$ ( ,&+ -,' (1' ( 6+ (?%'$, -/) (1' ( 6 75<+6 - ,5 (') (3+,-S&' (1' (150' 6/**'3'), (1%&+=6' ( Y (

• ') ( + D/%,+), ( %)' ( )/%0'6 6' ( /& -'),+, -/) > ( W/%& ( %)' ( +**&/.T' ( <+<)+),' ( ', ( 5<+6 - ,+ -&' (

1' ( 150' 6/**'3'), ( 1%&+=6' > ( 1+)$ ( 6+?%'6 6' ( /) ( */%&&+-, ( ,&/%0'& ( 6'$ ( /= D'., - 2 $ (

$% -0+),$ (/% ( 6'$ (+., -/)$ ($% -0+),'$ ( Y (

I ( ?%' ( 6' ( 3-)-$,S&' ( 1% ( [50'6/**'3'), ( 1%&+=6' > ( 1' ( 6 7\)0-&/))'3'), ( ', ( 1'$ (

W+&.$ ( -). 6%' ( 6 75<+6 - ,5 ( '),&' ( 6'$ ( 2'33'$ ( ', ( 6'$ ( T/33'$ ( 1+)$ ( $+ ( 153+&.T' ( 1' (

150' 6/**'3'), ( 1%&+=6' > ( )/,+33'), ( ') ( 150' 6/**+), ( 1'$ ( /%, - 6 $ ( + 2 -) ( 1' (

$/%,')-& ( 6'$ ( 3-)-$,S&'$ ( ', ( 6'$ ( /&<+)-$3'$ ( 1+)$ ( 6 7+**6 -.+, -/) ( 1% ( *& -). -*' ( 1' (

6 75<+6 - ,5 ('),&' ( 6'$ ( 2'33'$ (', ( 6'$ (T/33'$ (1+)$ ( 6'%&$ (* 6+)$ (1 7+., -/) 9 (

I ( ?% 7%)' ( 2/&3+,-/) ( ./).'&)+), ( 6 7+**6 -.+, -/) ( 1' ( 6 7+)+6U$' ( 1 - 2 25&').-5' ( $' 6/) (

6'$ ( $'4'$ ( ') (3+,-S&' ( 1' ( 150' 6/**'3'), ( 1%&+=6' ( $/ - , ( 150' 6/**5' ( ', ( / 2 2'&,' ( +%4 (

3-)-$,S&'$ > ( +%4 ( /&<+)-$3'$ ( </%0'&)'3'),+%4 ( ', ( 1+)$ ( 6'$ ( 6 -'%4 ( 15. -$ -/))'6$ (

&5< -/)+%4 (', ( 6/.+%49 (

I ( ?% 78 ( *+&, -& ( 1' ( 6 7'4'3*6' ( 1'$ ( *+U$ ( )/&1-?%'$ > ( ./33'( 6+ ( V%S1' > ( %) (

+&<%3'),+-&' ( $/ - , ( 150' 6/**5 ( ./).'&)+), ( 6' ( 6 -') ( '),&' ( 6 75<+6 - ,5 ( '),&' ( 6'$ (

2'33'$ ( ', ( 6'$ ( T/33'$ ( ', ( 6+ ( *&/$*5& - ,5 ( 5./)/3-?%' ( 1% ( Q%5='. ( 1+)$ ( %)(

./),'4,' (1' (150' 6/**'3'), (1%&+=6' 9 (

I ( ?%' ( 6' (3-)-$,S&' (1'$ (# 2 2+ -&'$ (3%)-. -*+6'$ > ( 1'$ (A5<-/)$ ( ', ( 1' ( 6 7G..%*+, -/) (1% (

,'&& - ,/ -&' > ( 1/), ( 6' ( * 6+) ( 1 7+., -/) ( 1' ( 150' 6/**'3'), ( 1%&+=6' ( *&50/-, > ( '),&' (

+%,&'$ > ( 1 7+../3*+<)'& ( 6'$ ( ./)25&').'$ ( &5< -/)+6'$ ( 1'$ ( 5 6%$ ( 1+)$ ( 6+ ( *& -$' ( ') (

./3*,' ( 1'$ ( *& -). -*'$ ( 1' ( 150' 6/**'3'), ( 1%&+=6' ( 6/&$ ( 1' ( 6+ ( 3-$' ( ') ( ]%0&' ( ', (

1' ( 6+ ( &50 -$ -/) ( 1' ( 6'%&$ ( * 6+)$ ( ?%-)?%'))+%4 ( 1' ( 150' 6/**'3'), > ( 2+0/& -$' ( +%$$ - (

6 7 -),5<&+, -/) (1% (*& -). -*' (1 75<+6 - ,5 ('),&' ( 6'$ ( 2'33'$ (', ( 6'$ (T/33'$9 (

I ( ?%' ( 6' ( 3-)-$,S&' ( 1% ( [50'6/**'3'), ( 5./)/3-?%' > ( 1' ( 6 7 ;))/0+, -/) ( ', ( 1' (

6 7\4*/&,+, -/) ( $ 7+$$%&' ( 1' ( 2+0/& -$'& ( 6 7 -),5<&+, -/) ( 1'$ ( 2'33'$ ( 8 ( ,/%,'$ ( 6'$ (

5 ,+*'$ (1% (150' 6/**'3'), (1' ()/%0'6 6'$ ( ,'.T)/6/<-'$ 9 (

I ( ?%' ( 6' ( 3-)-$,S&' ( 1% ( [50'6/**'3'), ( 1%&+=6' > ( 1' ( 6 7\)0-&/))'3'), ( ', ( 1'$ (

W+&.$ ( ', ( 6' ( 3-)-$,S&' ( 1' ( 6+ ( R%6,%&' > ( 1'$ ( R/33%)-.+, -/)$ ( ', ( 1' ( 6+ ( R/)1-, -/) (

253-)-)' ( ')./%&+<'), ( 6'$ ( 3-)-$,S&'$ ( ', ( 6'$ ( /&<+)-$3'$( )+, -/)+%4 ( ', (

&5< -/)+%4 ( 8 ( %, - 6 - $'& ( 6 7+)+6U$' ( 1 - 2 25&').-5' ( $' 6/) ( 6'$ ( $'4'$ ( ', ( 8 ( -). 6%&' ( 6'$ (

2'33'$ ( 1+)$ ( 6'$ ( *&/.'$$%$ ( 1' ( 150' 6/**'3'), ( 1' ( */6 - , -?%'$ ( ', ( 1 7/%, - 6 $ ( 1+)$ ( 6' (

.+1&' ( 1'$ ( .T+)<'3'),$ ( . 6 -3+, -?%'$ ( /% ( 1 7+%,&'$ ( *&/=653+,-?%'$ (

')0-&/))'3'),+6'$ : " HIJM5"=G!!7 "!N!ON=L "

Page 25: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 5

-4,:*#(&#!0# !%#&3((,'**,(&#!0#* ! 8 '#(* !#()%# !8# !<#(%# !#) ! 8, ! 8/))# !,/C !&7,(<#$#()* !& 8 '$,)'5/#* !8"+ & )1 *+ &"2 &,1) * 2 *M;"+ &9 *+(02 & )( & );22" &(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+&0"& >102 &=10#&,(+ & )"+ &,102+ & 0'#"++( *%"+ & (9"# & )"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & "2 & +2%(2':*"+ & :1;9"%0"6"02()"+ & "0& 2"%6"&=L':() * 2' &"02%" & )"+ &+"E"+. &8" &%'+;)2(2 &"+2 & ) L(F+"0#"&=L(0()O+" &="+ &"0K";E&="&:"0%"&=(0+&)( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & (;& A;'F"# k. & -"& , );+ 3 & )" & B--U7?& "2 & )" & B!R&0L102 & ,(+ & "0#1%"& (,,) *M;'& )" & H2(0, # 3(6& !-0, +0,1(&!I'+ , # 3FB% & G & )";%+ & (#2 *9 * 2'+ & H?//-4&ab]]o &"02%"9;"&(9"#&B6"&5"0=%"(;&=;&4J7I . & &

8 L(F+"0#"& ="& %"#100(*++(0#"& ="+ & ) *"0+ & "02%" & )" & :"0%"& "2 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ &=(0+& )"+ & )1 *+ & "2 & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & :1;9"%0"6"02()"+ & "+2 & (;++ * & #10+2(2'"& =(0+ & )( & +1# *'2' &M;'F'#1*+". & U0 & ">>"2 3 & "0 & #166;0*M;(02 & (9"# & )"+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+& "2 & )"+ & :%1;,"+&"09*%100"6"02(;E& (> *0 & ="& +1 ) ) *# * 2"% & )";% & ,(%2 *# *,(2 *10& (;E& :%1;,"+& ="& = *+#;++ *10&1% *: *0( )"6"02& , )(0*> *'+ 3 & 01;+& 01;+& +166"+& %(,*="6"02& (,"%p;"+ & M;"& )( &,%1F)'6(2*M;"& ="& :"0%"& "2 & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& '2( *2 & 6'#100;"& ,(% & )( & , );,(%2 &= L"02%" & ";E. & 8"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & 0"& +102 & ,(+ & ,%'+"02+ & =(0+& )"+ & );22"+ & ="+ &:%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+. & 8"+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+& +" & ,%'1##;,"02 & ="+ & M;"+2 *10+ &"09*%100"6"02()"+ & +;%21;2 & )1%+M;"&#" ) )"+D# * & +102 & %" ) *'"+ &G & )( & +(02' &="+ & >"66"+&"2 &="+ &"0>(02+ 3 & G & )( & M;() * 2' & ="& 9 *" & H(;& 0 *9"(;& ="+ & M;(%2 *"%+ 3 & ,(% & "E"6,)"& )"+ & "+,(#"+ & 9"%2+I 3 &1;& "0#1%"& G & ) L(##"++ *F * ) * 2' & ="+ & +"%9 *#"+ & ,;F) *#+ & H,(% & "E . & )" & 2%(0+,1%2 & "0& #166;0I. & ?(% &"E"6,)"3 & ) L/>"(+ & ( & (=1,2'& ="+ & ,%1,1+*2 *10+ & +;% & , );+ *";%+ & M;"+2 *10+ &"09*%100"6"02()"+ & %" ) *'"+ & G & )( & +(02' & "2 & )( & M;() * 2' & ="& 9 *" 3 & #166"& ,(% & "E"6,)"& )"+ &,%1=;*2+ & 21E *M;"+& =(0+& )"+ & #1+6'2*M;"+3 & )( & M;() * 2' & ="& ) L"(;& "2 & )( & >"%6"2;%"& ="& )( &#"02%( )" & 0;#)'( *%" & 5"02 * ) )O . & & 8 L/>"(+ & ( & (;++ * & "0#1;%(:'& ="+ & f &,%1K"2+ & %(++"6F)";%+ &i &#166"& )( & #(6,(:0"& f &=;& A;'F'#1*+ & =(0+ &610& #(F(+ic&M;* & F'0'> *# *"02 & *0=*%"#2"6"02&)( & );22" &(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. &-"&6e6"3& )( &7'='%(2 *10&="+ & >"66"+&=;&A;'F"#&#16,%"0=& =(0+ & +( & , )(2"D>1%6"& ,1) * 2 *M;"& )( & %"9"0=*#(2 *10& =;& =%1*2 & G & ;0&"09*%100"6"02&+( *0 3 &;0&="+ &f &=%1*2+ & >10=(6"02(;E&,1;% & )"+ & >"66"+&i`. & &

8"+ & "0K";E& ="& :"0%"& 0"& >102 & ,(+ & ,(%2 *" & ="+ & ,%'1##;,(2 *10+ & ="+ & :%1;,"+&"09*%100"6"02(;E& (: *++(02 & =(0+& )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & G & ) L"E#",2 *10&="& M;")M;"+& >"66"+& *6,) *M;'"+& =(0+& #"+ & 61;9"6"02+. & J","0=(023 & )"+ & :"0+ &

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

Page 26: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 6

%"0#102%'+ & =(0+& )" & 6* ) *"; & "09*%100"6"02() & "2 & =(0+ & )" & 6* ) *"; & ="+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+&102 & 21;+ & "E,% *6'& ;0& *02'%e2 & M;(02 & (;E& ) *"0+ & "02%" & )" & :"0%"& "2 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & &

R1;+&(910+&=10#&"E,)1%' &(9"#& )"+ &,"%+100"+& %"0#102%'"+ & )"+ &"E,) *#(2 *10+ &,1++ *F )"+ &="&) L(F+"0#"& ="& #"22" & ,%1F)'6(2*M;"& (;& +" *0 & ="+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+& "2 & ="+ & :%1;,"+&'#1)1:*+2"+ . & &

- L(F1%=3 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & ="6";%"02 & ;0& "0K";& )1 *02( *0 & "0& 2"6,+& "2 & "0&"+,(#"3 & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="& #";ED# * & '2(02 & ,"%p;+ & #166"& ;0*M;"6"02& +;F*+ & ,(% & )"+ &,1,;)(2 *10+ & ="+ & ,(O+ & =;& f &4;=&i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p1*9"02 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& #166"& #10#"%0(02 & = L(;2%"+ & ,"%+100"+& =(0+&= L(;2%"+ &,(O+ &"2 &=(0+& ) L(9"0*% & H|1)> &rB1+"% &ab]]3 &`c_I . & &

8"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +102 & (;++ * & 6() & #16,%*+ & "2 & +1;9"02 & #10>10=;+ & (9"# &= L(;2%"+ & "0K";E& "09*%100"6"02(;E3 & ,(% & "E"6,)"& )( & ,1) );2 *10& ="& ) L( *% & 1;&) L(,,(;9% *++"6"02& ="& )( & #1;#$"& =L1Q10"& H|1)> & r& B1+"% & ab]]3 & `c_I . & U0 & 6* ) *"; &(:% *#1 )" 3 & )( & ,%12"#2 *10& ="& ) L"(;& "0& M;() * 2' & "2 & "0& M;(02 *2' & +"6F)" & e2%" & ) L"0 K";&,% *0# *,() 3 & 6(*+ & )"+ & ) *"0+ & "02%" & #" ) )"D# * & "2 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & 0"& +102 & ,(+ &+1;9"02 & >( * 2+ . & ?(% & #102%"3 & ;0& ='#*=";% & =(0+ & )" & 6* ) *"; & 6;0*# *,() & ( & "E,) *M;'& M;"& )( &> %'M;"0#"& (##%;"& ="+ & , ); *"+ & 21%%"02 *" ) )"+ 3 & #(;+'"& ,(% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & ( &;0& *6,(#2 & +;% & )( & :"+2 *10& =;& %; *++" ) )"6"02& ="+ & "(;E3 & ,(% & "E"6,)"3 & =(0+ & )( &6(0*N%" & ="&#%";+"% & )"+ & >1++'+. & &

@0"& (;2%" & "E,) *#(2 *10& +1;)"9'"& ,(% & #"%2( *0"+ & ="+ & ,"%+100"+& *02"%9 *"t'"+& ,1;% &) L(F+"0#"& ="& ) *"0+ & "02%" & )" & :"0%"& "2 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& "+2 & M;"& #"2 & "0K";&"+2 & #1;%(66"02& ,"%p;& #166"& $(;2"6"02& 2"#$0*M;"& "2 & +# *"02 * > *M;"3 & "2 & M;"& )" &= *+#1;%+ & "+2 & 2"0;& ,(% & ="+ & "E,"%2+ . & @0"& ,(%2 *# *,(02"& ( & 6e6"& +1;)"9'& ) L *6(:"& ="&f &B"++ *";%+ & "0& +(%%(;+ &i & ,1;% & ='+ *:0"% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+y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|1)> & r& B1+"% & ab]]3 &

Page 27: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 7

`c_& r& ``^I . & J"22" & ,"%#",2 *10& "+2 & ,%1F(F)"6"02& >10='"& =(0+& )" & = *+#1;%+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"3 &,;*+M;LG & 21;+ & )"+ &0 *9"(;E3 & )"+ &+1 );2 *10+ & 2"#$0*M;"+3 &012(66"02& )" &#(,2(:"&="&#(%F10"&"2 & )" & 6(%#$'& =L'#$(0:"& =L'6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U43 & +"6F)"02 & e2%" & >(91% *+'"+ & ,(% & )"+ &='# *=";%+D"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+. & 8" & = *+#1;%+ & 2"#$01D+# *"02 * > *M;"& M;* & #(%(#2'% *+" & ) L"0K";& ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "+2 & = L( * ) )";%+ & #% * 2 *M;'& ,(% & , );+ *";%+ & (;2";%"+ & >'6*0*+2"+ &,;*+M;L * ) & +"%2 & "02%" & (;2%"+ & G & %"0=%"& )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )";%+ & ,%'1##;,(2 *10+ & *09 *+ *F )"+ & "2 &6e6"& G & )"+ & '#(%2"% & ="+ & ='F(2+ & HB(#5%":1% & ab]bo & -(0v")6(0& abbao & x"66(2* & abb_I. &B(#5%":1% & +1;) *:0"& =L( * ) )";%+ & M;"& ) L"0K";& ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& ( & +"%9 * & G &6(+#;) *0 *+"% & ) L"09*%100"6"02() *+6"&HB(#5%":1% &ab]bI . &

-"& , );+ 3 & #"%2( *0"+ & ,"%+100"+ & %"0#102%'"+ & 102 & +1;)"9'& )" & >( *2 & M;"& )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +102 & ;0& "0K";& %" ) *' & (;& +"#2";% & ="& ) L'0"%:*" & "2 & M;"& ) L'0"%:*" & "+2 & %" ) *'" &= *%"#2"6"02& (;& ,1;91*% . & J"22" & %" )(2 *10& *02 *6"& "02%" & )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "2 & )" & ,1;91*% & >( * 2 & M;"& #"2 & "0K";& ="6";%"& 6(K1% *2( *%"6"02& ;0"& f &(>>( *%" &="& :(%+ &i . & & @0"& ,(%2 *# *,(02"& 2%(9(* ) )(02 & (;& +" *0 & = L;0& :%1;,"& '#1)1:*+2" & M;'F'#1*+ & ( &= L( * ) )";%+ & *0=*M;'& M;L" ) )" & '2( *2 & )( & f &+";)" & > * ) )" &i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kbm& "2 &)"+ & >"66"+& %",%'+"02(*"02 & (;& , );+ & ]`m& ="+ & & #$">+ & ="+ & =')':(2 *10+ & H4v *00"% & ab]a3 & cI . &8" & 2(;E& ="+ & "6,)1O'"+& ="& !"++1;%#"+ & J(0(=(& "2 & ="& U09*%100"6"02& J(0(=(& "+2 &*0>'% *";% &G &#" ); * &,1;% & )( & >10#2 *10&,;F) *M;"&=(0+ &+10&"0+"6F)"& HB(#5%":1% &ab]bI . &

d ) & "+2 & (;++ * & >(# * )" & ="& #10+2(2"% & M;"& ) L"+,(#"& 6'=*(2 *M;"& (;21;% & ="& ) L"0K";& ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "+2 & 1##;,'& "E# );+ *9"6"02& ,(% & ="+ & $166"+& H, . & "E . & 42"9"0&5;* )F"(;)2 3 & 4O=0"O& ! *F(;E& "2 & x;:1& 4':;*0 & = LTM;*2"%%"3 & /0=%'& <') *+ )" & "2 & ?(2% *#v & <10*0 &="& ) L/A8?/I. & &

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

R1;+& ,1;910+& =10#& #10+2(2"% & M;LG & ) L"E#",2 *10& ="& M;")M;"+ &6* ) * 2(02"+ 3 & )( & , );,(%2 & ="+ &(#2";%+ & =(0+& )"+ & +"#2";%+ & "09*%100"6"02(;E& 0"& +102 & ,(+ & +"0+ *F * ) * +'+ & G & )( & M;"+2 *10& ="&:"0%"&=(0+& )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "2 & M;"& )"+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+&0"& +" &,"0#$"02 & ,(+ & (#2 *9"6"02& +;% & ) L"0K";& ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & & d ) & +"6F)" & =10#&

Page 28: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 8

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q;9%(02 & =(0+ & #"+ & +"#2";%+. & -"& , );+ 3 &#166"& * ) & ( & '2' & 012'& ,(% & ) L;0"& ="+ & ,"%+100"+& %"0#102%'"+3 & #"22" & #(6,(:0"&=L'=;#(2 *10& =1*2 & # *F )"% & )"+ & :%1;,"+& '#1)1:*+2"+ & "2 & )"+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+&= * > >'%"66"02. & & &

&

D(?#/C!0# !<#(%#!%#8 '.* !,/C !&7,(<#$#()* !& 8 '$,)'5/#* !J166"& 01;+& ) L(910+& ='KG & +1;)"9'3 & ) L10& #10+*=N%"& +;%21;2 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ & #166"& ;0& "0K";& "09*%100"6"02() & 2"#$0*M;"& "2 & )1 *02( *0 & (9"# & ="+ &+1 );2 *10+ & 2"#$01)1:*M;"+. & ?1;%2(02 3 & #"2 & "0K";& "09*%100"6"02() & "+2 & +;%21;2 & ;0& "0K";&+1# *( ) 3 & '#1016*M;"& "2 & ,1) * 2 *M;"3 & (O(02 & ="+ & *6,) *#(2 *10+ & *6,1%2(02"+ & ,1;% & )( & +1# *'2'3 &)( & K;+2 *#" &+1# *( )" &"2 & ) L':() * 2' & H4v *00"% &ab]a3 &aI . &

8 L *02':%(2 *10& ="& )( & = *6"0+*10& :"0%"& =(0+ & )"+ & +2%(2':*"+ & ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="& 5U4& "2 &= L(=(,2(2 *10& (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& "+2 & 21;2 & = L(F1%=& ;0"& M;"+2 *10& =L'M;*2' & "2 &= L':() * 2' & HU d5U& ab]a3 & ]_I . & U0 & ">>"2 3 & #10+ *='%(02 & )"+ & *0':() * 2'+ & +O+2'6*M;"+& "02%" & )"+ &>"66"+& "2 & )"+ & $166"+3 & 21;2" & ,1) * 2 *M;"& M;* & 0"& 2 *"02 & ,(+ & #16,2"& =;& :"0%"& % *+M;"& ="&,"%,'2;"% & 1;& 6e6"& =L"E(#"%F"% & #"+ & *0':() * 2'+ & HJ$() * >1;% & ab]b3 & ]lkI . & & 8"+ & >"66"+&=1*9"02 & (91*% & ;0"& , )(#"& ':()" & G & #" ) )"+ & ="+ & $166"+& =(0+& )( & ,% *+" & ="& ='#*+ *10+ & %" ) *'"+ &(;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & G & 21;+ & )"+ & 0 *9"(;E& (;& +" *0 & ="+ & :1;9"%0"6"02+ & (;++ * &F *"0& M;"& =(0+& )( & +1# *'2' & # *9 * )" . & -"& , );+ 3 & )"+ & >"66"+& +102 & , );+ & *6,) *M;'"+ & (;E& 0 *9"(;E&)1#() & "2 & %': *10() & M;L" ) )"+ & 0"& )" & +102 & (; & 0 *9"(;& 0(2 *10() & 1;& *02"%0(2 *10() & H/ )F"% & r&x"66(2* & ab]]3 & kI . & ?1;% & #"22" & %( *+103 & "2 & ,(%#"& M;"& )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ &,(++"& >1%#'6"02&,(% &="+ &,1) * 2 *M;"+ &6;0*# *,()"+ &"2 & %': *10()"+ 3 &;0"&:%(0="&,(%2 *" &="+ &='# *+ *10+ &=1*9"02 &e2%" &,% *+"+ &(;&0 *9"(;&="+ &6;0*# *,() * 2'+ &"2 &="+ &%':*10+. & &

8"+ & "0K";E& ="& :"0%"& %" ) *'+ & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& ,";9"02 & e2%" & = *9 *+'+ & "0& 2%1 *+ &:%(0="+& #(2':1% *"+ . & -L(F1%=3 & * ) & O & ( & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & = * > >'%"0#*'+ & "02%" & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )"+ &$166"+& ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & U0 & ">>"2 3 & #166"& 01;+& )" & 9"%%10+3 & ="+ & '2;="+&='6102%"02 & M;"& )"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & 0"& +102 & ,(+ & )"+ & 6e6"+&,1;% & )"+ & >"66"+& M;"& ,1;% & )"+ & $166"+. & 5'0'%()"6"02& , );+ & ,(;9%"+3 & )"+ & >"66"+& +102 &, );+ & 9; )0'%(F)"+ & G & #"+ & *6,(#2+. & & U0+;*2" 3 & 01;+& (F1%="%10+& )( & %'=;#2 *10& ="+ & '6*++ *10+ &="& :(Q & G & ">>"2 & ="& +"%%" & H5U4I & "2 & )( & #102% *F;2 *10& ="+ & >"66"+& "2 & ="+ & $166"+& G & )( & );22" &

Page 29: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 2 9

(;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & U0 & 2%1 *+ *N6"& ) *";3 & 01;+& 01;+& (22(%="%10+& G & )( & M;"+2 *10&="& ) L(=(,2(2 *10&(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & &

E$6, & ) * ! 0 ' 1 1 . % # ( & ' . * &

8" & =%1*2 & *02"%0(2 *10() & "2 & )"+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & M;'F'#1*+"+ & ,(% )"02 & ="+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "0& 2"%6"+& ="& f &9;)0'%(F* ) * 2' &i . & J"22" & 9;)0'%(F* ) * 2' & "+2 &*0> );"0#'"& ,(% & ="+ & >(#2";%+ & 2" ) )"+ & )( & ,(;9%"2'3 & )( & = *+#% *6*0(2 *10& "2 & ) L"E# );+ *10&H/ )F"%rx"66(2* & ab]]3 & kI . & J166"& 01;+& ) L(910+& 6"02 *100'& , );+ & $(;23 & )( & %&'(&)*!+ ,8.)")6-!5+ , 4-.' , 2 3(#(4&(& !-0, (.K, 67(0*+1+0&5 , 6 2 !1(&!8.+5 , 9*+" & (;++ * & G & ,%12':"% & )"+ &,1,;)(2 *10+ & )"+ & , );+ & 9; )0'%(F)"+ & ="+ & *6,(#2+ . & Z% 3 & ,;*+M;L * ) & "E *+2" & "0#1%"& ="+ & '#(%2+ &="& %"9"0;+& "02%" & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & )"+ & >"66"+& (;& A;'F"#3 & )"+ & >"66"+& 9 *9"02 & , );+ &+1;9"02 & =(0+ & )( & ,(;9%"2' & M;"& )"+ & $166"+3 & +;%21;2 & )"+ & >"66"+&6101,(%"02( )"+ & "2 & )"+ &>"66"+&[:'"+ &="&, );+ &="&`b&(0+ & H/J47&ab]]3 &jjDj_I . &J"22" & *0+;>> *+(0#"&="&%"9"0;+& )"+ &%"0=& =10#& , );+ & 9; )0'%(F)"+ & M;"& )"+ & $166"+& (;E& *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & -L(;2%"+ & :%1;,"+& +;+#",2 *F )"+ & ="& %"++"02 *% & ;0"& *0+;>> *+(0#"& ="& %"9"0;+&+102 & )"+ & K";0"+& ="& ]jDac& (0+3 & )"+ & ,%"+2(2( *%"+ & ="& ) L( *="& +1# *( )" 3 & )"+ & ,"%+100"+& +";)"+ 3 &)"+ & 6*01% *2'+ & 9 *+ *F )"+ 3 & )"+ & ,"%+100"+& *66*:%(02"+ & "2 & )"+ & ,1,;)(2 *10+ & (;21#$210"+&H !" !# $ I . & &

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ab]]3 & acDa`3 & jjDj_& o & J10+"* ) & ="+ & B102%'()( *+"+ & abb^3 & ]`I 3 & M;L" ) )"+ &9 *9"02 & , );+ & )10:2"6,+& M;"& #";ED# * & "2 & M;L" ) )"+ & (++;6"02& , );+ & +1;9"02 & M;"& )"+ & $166"+&)( & %"+,10+(F* ) * 2' &="+ & +1 *0+ &="+ &"0>(02+ 3 &="+ &:"0+ &[:'+ &"2 &="+ &6()(="+3 &" ) )"+ & +102 &=10#&= * > >'%"66"02& (>>"#2'"+ & ,(% & )"+ & #(0*#;)"+ & M;"& 0"& )" & +102 & )"+ & $166"+& HU d5U& ab]ao &? *%(%= &"2 &( ) & abb`I . &-"&, );+ 3 & #166"& )" & %(,,1%2" &-;0#(03 &f & g ) h"+ &$166"+&"2 & )"+ & >"66"+&0"& %'(:*++"02 & ,(+ & ="& )( & 6e6"& >(p10& G & )( & #$()";% & "E2%e6". & 8"+ & >"66"+& 2%(0+,*%"02 &61*0+3 & 102 & ;0& 2(;E& 6'2(F1) *M;"& , );+ & ' )"9'& "2 & ="+ & 2 *++;+ & (=*,";E& +1;+D#;2(0'+ & , );+ &*6,1%2(02+ & M;* & )"+ & "6,e#$"02 & ="& +" & %(>%( s#$ *% & (;++ * & %(,*="6"02& M;"& )"+ & $166"+. &U ) )"+ & +102 & =10#& 61*0+ & 21 )'%(02"+ & G & ;0& +2%"++ & 2$"%6*M;"& *6,1+'. & i & H-;0#(0& abb_I . ?1;%2(02 3 & )" & ?/JJ& abab3 & M;* & 9";2 & (6') *1%"% & )( & %'+ * ) *"0#"& ="& )( & ,1,;)(2 *10& (;E& 9(:;"+&="&#$()";% & *02"0+"&,(% &="+ &+O+2N6"+&=L( )"%2" & 2' )',$10*M;"&"2 &,(% & d02"%0"2 3 &0" & >( * 2 &,(+ &+,'#* > *M;"6"02& 6"02 *10& ="+ & >"66"+& #166"& :%1;,"& ="& ,"%+100"+& f&= *2"+ &9; )0'%(F)"+ &i . & & 8"+ & 6"+;%"+ & "09*+(:'"+ & 2 *"0=%102D" ) )"+ & #16,2"& ="+ & F"+1*0+ &+,'#* > *M;"+ &="+ & >"66"+}

Page 30: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 0

8"+ & >"66"+& +102 & (;++ * & = * > >'%"66"02& 21;#$'"+&,(% & )"+ & #(2(+2%1,$"+&0(2;%") )"+ &M;"& )"+ &$166"+& H-;0#(0& abb_I . & @0"& '2;="& ="& R";6(O"% & "2 & ? )~6,"%& =(0+ & ]c]& ,(O+ & ( &='6102%' & M;"& )"+ & #(2(+2%1,$"+& 0(2;%") )"+ & #(;+"02 & ;0"& = *6*0;2 *10& ="& ) L"+,'%(0#"& ="&9 *" & ="+ & >"66"+3 & #" & M;* & %'=;*2 & #10+*='%(F)"6"02& ) L'#(%2 & = L"+,'%(0#"& ="& 9 *" & "02%" & )"+ &>"66"+& "2 & )"+ & $166"+& HR";6(O"% & (0=& ? )~6,"%& abblI . & 8"+ & (;2";%"+ & "E,) *M;"02 & M;"&#"+ & *6,(#2+ & :"0%'+ & +102 & #(;+'+ & ,(% & )( & 9; )0'%(F* ) * 2' & ="+ & >"66"+& "0& %( *+10& ="& )";% &+2(2;2 & +1# *1'#1016*M;"& "2 & ="+ & %(,,1%2+ & +1# *(;E& ="& +"E"o & #"2 & '#(%2 & "+2 & =10#& %'=;*2 &=(0+ & )"+ &,(O+ &1n& ) L':() * 2' &="&:"0%"&"+2 &(22" *02" & H4v *00"% &ab]ao &R";6(O"% &(0=&? )~6,"%&abblI . & -"& , );+3 & "0 & %( *+10& ="& )( & = *9 *+ *10& +"E;'"& =;& 2%(9(* ) & =16"+2 *M;"3 & )"+ & >"66"+&% *+M;"02 & ="& ,1%2"% & )" & , );+ & :%1+ & =;& ,1*=+ & ="+ & ,%1F)N6"+& ="& +(02' & %" ) *'+ & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "2 & ="+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #(2(+2%1,$"+& 0(2;%") )"+ & =(0+& )";% & %W )" &= L( *=(02"+ & 0(2;%") )"+ & H,(% & "E . & )"+ & *010=(2 *10+ & "0& U;%1,"& "0& ab]b& "2 & ) L1;%(:(0& P(2% *0( &(;E&T2(2+D@0*+I HU d5U&ab]a3 &]^DabI . &@0"&'2;="& # * 2'"&,(% &UOQ(:;*%%" &"2 & %'( ) *+'"&"0&abbb&+;% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & *010=(2 *10+ & (;& 4(:;"0(O& ="& ]^^j& ='6102%" & M;"& )"+ & +'M;") )"+ &,$O+ *M;"+& "2 & ,+O#$1)1:*M;"+& '2( *"02 & , );+ & *6,1%2(02"+ & ,1;% & )"+ & >"66"+& M;"& ,1;% & )"+ &$166"+& HUOQ(:;*%%" & abb_I . & U0 & ">>"2 3 & )"+ & >"66"+& =1*9"02 & G & )( & >1 *+ & +" & %'2(F) * % & =" & #"+ &#(2(+2%1,$"+& 0(2;%") )"+ & "2 & #102 *0;"% & G & (++;6"%& )";%+ & 1F) *:(2 *10+ & >(6* ) *( )"+ & "2 &"E2'% *";%"+. &8"+ & >"66"+&9 *9"02 &(;++ * &="+ &+2%"++ &, );+ & *6,1%2(02+ &M;"&#";E&="+ &$166"+&,"0=(02 & "2 & (,%N+ & ;0& '9N0"6"02& 6'2'1%1)1:*M;"& "E2%e6"& ,;*+M;L" ) )"+ & +102 & )"+ &,% *0# *,()"+ & = *+,"0+(2% *#"+ & ="& +1 *0 & H-;0#(0& abb_I . & 8"+ & #(2(+2%1,$"+& 0(2;%") )"+ & +102 &(;++ * & +1;9"02 & (##16,(:0'"+& = L;0& (##%1*++"6"02& ="& )( & 9 *1 )"0#"& "09"%+ & )"+ & >"66"+&H-;0#(0&abb_I .

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ab]]3 & jj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

Page 31: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 1

2%(9(* ) )"02 &G & 2"6,+&=1;F)" & H=(0+ &;0&"6,)1* &"2 & +;% & )( & >"%6"I &(> *0 &= L(++;%"% & )( & +;%9 *" &="&)( & >"%6"& H/)+210& ab]]3 & jlI . & B():%' & ;0"& ;%F(0*+(2 *10& #%1 *++(02"3 & "0& 6* ) *"; & %;%( ) 3 & )( &>"%6"& >(6* ) *( )" & '2(02 & "0#1%"& 2%N+ & ,%'+"02"& =(0+ & )" & ,1%2%( *2 & =" & ) L(:% *#; )2;%" &M;'F'#1*+"3 & * ) & >(;=%( *2 & + L *02"%%1:"% & +;% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & = * > >'%"0#*'+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ &+;% & )( &9 *" &="+ &(:% *#; )2";%+ &"2 &(:% *#; )2% *#"+ &"2 &="& )";%+ & >(6* ) )"+ . & &

R1;+& +(910+& (;++ * & M;"& )"+ & #166;0(;2'+ & 9 *9(02 & =(0+& ) L/%#2 *M;"& +;F*++"02 & ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & %(=*#(;E& =(0+ & )";%+ & 61="+& ="& 9 *" & 2%(=*2 *100")+ & "0& %( *+10& ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & )"+ & >"66"+& +102 & ( *0+ * & >1%#'+ &="& M;*22"% & )";%+ & #166;0(;2'+ & ,1;% & ( ) )"% & #$"%#$"% & =;& 2%(9(* ) & ( * ) )";%+ & HU d5U& ab]a3 & abI . &Z% 3 & #166"& )" & +1;)N9"02 & -1t+)"O & "2 & +"+ & #1D(;2";%"+ & M;(02 & (;E& *6,(#2+ & ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +;% & )( & 9 *" & ="+ & d0;*2+ & =(0+ & ) L/%#2 *M;"3 & )"+ & ">>"2+ & =1#;6"02'+ &+102 & +;%21;2 & #";E& M;* & (> >"#2"02 & )"+ & $166"+3 & #166"& #";E& %" ) *'+ & (;E& 2"%% * 21 *%"+ & ="&#$(++"& "2 & ="& =',)(#"6"02+ & H-1t+)"O & "2 & ( ) . & ab]bI . & -(0+& ) L;0"& ="+ & %(%"+ & '2;="+& +;% & )"+ &*6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +;% & )"+ & >"66"+& d0;*2+ 3 & <"(;6*"% & "2 & 71%=&"E,) *M;"02 & M;"& #";ED# * & 102 & ;0& *6,(#2 & = *%"#2 & +;% & )( & #(,(#*2' & ="& #"+ & >"66"+& G & 01;%% *% &)";% & >(6* ) )" & "2 & )";% & #166;0(;2'& H<"(;6*"% & (0=& 71%=& ab]bI . & -"+F*"0+ & "2 & 4 *6(%=D5(:010& 102 & ':()"6"02& =1#;6"02'& )"+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +;% & )( &%" )(2 *10& M;L102 & )"+ & >"66"+& *0;*2"+ & (;& 2"%% * 21 *%" & "2 & +;% & )"+ & ,%(2 *M;"+ & 2"%% * 21% *( )"+ &#166"& )( &#;"* ) )"22" &="&,"2 *2+ & > %; *2+ & H-"+F*"0+ &r&4 *6(%=D5(:010&ab]aI . & & &

8"+ & '2;="+& M;"& 01;+& (910+& %"#"0+'"+& ='6102%"02 & =10#& M;"& )" & :"0%"& & ( & ;0& *6,(#2 & +;% &)( & 9; )0'%(F* ) * 2' & "2 & )( & %'+ * ) *"0#"& ="+ & *0=*9 *=;+ & (;E & #10+'M;"0#"+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+. & 8 L(F+"0#"& =L(0()O+" & = * > >'%"0#*'"& +" )10& )"+ & +"E"+ & ="+ & *6,(#2+ & ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & % *+M;"& =10#& =L"E(#"%F"% & )"+ & *0':() * 2'+ & +1# *( )"+ & "E *+2(02"+ &HU d5U&ab]a3 &]_I . &

="#,*#&C*&/*+3*/+3*&

• /-4& ="+& *6,(#2+& ="+& '9N0"6"02+& #)*6(2*M;"+& "E2%e6"+& H,.& "E.& #(0*#;)"+3& +'#$"%"++"+3& ,);*"+&21%%"02*"))"+I&

o /-4&="+&*6,(#2+&+;%&)(&+(02'&

o /-4&="+&*6,(#2+&+;%&)"&2%(9(*)&010&%'6;0'%'&&

o /-4&="+&*6,(#2+&+;%&)\'#1016*"&%':*10()"&&

• /-4&="+&*6,(#2+&="+&#$(0:"6"02+&#)*6(2*M;"+&+;%&)"+&,1,;)(2*10+&01%=*M;"+&

• /-4&="+&*6,(#2+&="+&#$(0:"6"02+&#)*6(2*M;"+&

!

Page 32: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 2

- 4 , ) ) . (/ , ) ' 3 ( !

8"& =";E*N6"& ' )'6"02& =(0+& ) L *02':%(2 *10& =;& :"0%"& =(0+& )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ &"+2 & )( & %'=;#2 *10&="+ &'6*++ *10+ &="&5U4&(> *0 &= L(22'0;"% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & G & 9"0*% . &J"22" & );22" & =1*2 & e2%" & "02%",% *+" & ,(% & 21;2"+ & )"+ & +,$N%"+ & ="& )( & +1# *'2'3 & # . DGD=. & )"+ &:1;9"%0"6"02+ 3 & )"+ & *0=;+2% *"+ 3 & )"+ & "02%",% *+"+ 3 & )"+ & # * 21O"00"+& "2 & # * 21O"0+. & < *"0& +z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p10& = *+,%1,1%2 *100") )" & ,(% & )"+ & >"66"+. & <%"> 3 & )"+ &6"+;%"+ & ="& %'=;#2 *10& (=1,2'"+ & 0"&=1*9"02 &,(+ &"E(#"%F"% & )"+ & *0':() * 2'+ &+1# *( )"+ . & &

6%+3%7&'"#) (1%) (380#5%/%#&) (3 , '/0&'9*%) (

<*"0& M;"& )( & :%1++"& ,(%2 & ="& )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & %"9 *"00"& (;E&+"#2";%+ & ="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ & "2 & ="& ) L *0=;+2% *" & H91 *% & ?/JJ& ababI 3 & )"+ & *0=*9 *=;+ & 102 & (;++ * & ;0&%W )" & *6,1%2(02 & G & K1;"% & =(0+& )( & %'=;#2 *10& ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& HO & #16,%*+ & =(0+ & )" &+"#2";% & ="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+I . & -"& 6e6"3 & #" & +102 & ="+ & *0=*9 *=;+ & M;* & ="9%102 & + L(=(,2"% & (;E&*6,(#2+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& H|1)> & r&B1+"% & ab]]3 & `clI . & d ) & "+2 & *6,1%2(02 & ="&012"% & M;"& )"+ & (#2 *10+ & ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="& 5U4& ="+ & *0=*9 *=;+ & +102 & *0> );"0#'"+ & ,(% & )" &0 *9"(;& =L'=;#(2 *103 & )"+ & %"9"0;+3 & )" & +2(2;2 & +1# *( ) 3 & )( & = *9 *+ *10& H+"E;'"I & =;& 2%(9(* ) & =(0+ &)"+ & >1O"%+ &"2 & )"+ &%W )"+ &(22% *F;'+ &(;E&$166"+&"2 &(;E& >"66"+&HU d5U&ab]a3 &a`I . & &

8( & #16,%'$"0+*103 & )"+ & ,"%#",2 *10+ & "2 & )"+ & (22 * 2;="+& ="+ & *0=*9 *=;+ & M;(02 & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & +102 & "++"02 *" ) )"+ & G & )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 &(;2(02 &(;&0 *9"(;&="& )( & %'=;#2 *10&="+ &5U4&M;"&="& ) L(=(,2(2 *10. &@0"&'2;="&="&B#J%*:$2 &(;E& T2(2+D@0*+ 3 & "> >"#2;(02 & ;0"& %"9;"& ="+ & +10=(:"+& 5() );,& ="& abb]& G & abb_3 & #10#);2 &M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& 102 & ;0"& 6"* ) )";%" & #16,%'$"0+*10& =;& ,$'016N0"& ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "2 & "E,% *6"02& ;0"& , );+ & :%(0="& ,%'1##;,(2 *10& ,1;% & #"2 & "0K"; & M;"& )"+ &$166"+& HB#J%*:$2 & ab]bI . & 8( & %"9;"& ="+ & '2;="+& "6,*% *M;"+ & +;% & )"+ & ,"%#",2 *10+ & ="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "2 & )"+ & +2%(2':*"+ & ="& #166;0*#(2 *10& ">>"#2;'"& ,(% & |1)> & "2 &B1+"% & Hab]]I & "E,) *M;"& (;++ * & M;"& )"+ & ,"%#",2 *10+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& +102 &*0> );"0#'"+ & ,(% & )( & #; )2;%" & H,(% & "E . & )( & %" )(2 *10& (9"#& )( & 0(2;%"3 & )"+ & 9( )";%+ & ="& )( &+1# *'2'I 3 & ,(% & )"+ & #%1O(0#"+ & %" ) *: *";+"+3 & ,(% & )"+ & 2O,"+ & ="& ,"%+100() * 2' & "2 & ,(% & )" & #(=%"&

Page 33: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 3

;2* ) * +' & ,1;% & "E,) *M;"% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& H,(% & "E"6,)"3 & )"+ & #(6,(:0"+&9 *+(02 &G & >( *%" &,";% &(;E&:"0+ &1;&G & )"+ &#; ),(F* ) *+"% &0"&+102 &,(+ &">> *#(#"+I . & &

?(% & ( * ) )";%+ 3 & ="+ & '2;="+& M;() * 2(2 *9"+ & "0& #166;0*#(2 *10& ='6102%"02 & M;"& ) L'=;#(2 *10&0L"+2 & ,(+ & +;>> *+(02" & ,1;% & 6"0"% & G & ="+ & (#2 *10+ & #10#%N2"+ & ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="& 5U4. & 8"+ &#(6,(:0"+& = L'=;#(2 *10& =1*9"02 & =10#& e2%" & (##16,(:0'"+& ="& +1 );2 *10+ & "2 & ="&,%1,1+*2 *10+ & = L(#2 *10+ & #10#%N2"+ & M;"& )"+ & :"0+ & ,";9"02 & %'( ) *+"% & (; & 0 *9"(;& *0=*9 *=;") 3 &6(*+ & (;++ * & =" & +2%;#2;%"+ & *0+2 * 2;2 *100") )"+ & "2 & = L *0>%(+2%;#2;%"+ & %"0=(02 & #"+ &#$(0:"6"02+ & ="& #16,1%2"6"02& ,1++ *F )"+ & HB#J%*:$2 & ab]bI . & J"22" & (>> * %6(2 *10& %" K1 *02 &)"+ & ,%1,1+& ="& , );+ *";%+ & ,(%2 *# *,(02"+ & "2 & ,(%2 *# *,(02+ & (;EM;")+ & 01;+& (910+& ,(% )' 3 & G &) L"> >"2 & M;L;0"& #(6,(:0"& =L'=;#(2 *10& =1*2 & e2%" & f &,%(2 *#1D,%(2 *M;"&i & "2 & ,%1,1+"% & ="+ &(#2 *10+ &#10#%N2"+. & &

-"& , );+ 3 & +" )10& M;")M;"+& '2;="+& "2 & +10=(:"+3 & 01;+& +(910+& M;"& )"+ & >"66"+&0L"09*+(:"02 & ,(+ & )"+ & %'=;#2 *10+ & ="& 5U4& ="& )( & 6e6"& >(p10& M;"& )"+ & $166"+& H/ )F"% & r&x"66(2* & ab]]3 & aI . & U0 & ">>"2 3 & #" ) )"+D# * & ,% *9 * )': *"02 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & ="& #16,1%2"6"02&"2 & ="& +2O )" & ="& 9 *" & H#10+166(2*10I & (;& 0 *9"(;& *0=*9 *=;") & H"2 & ="+ & >(6* ) )"+I & 2(0=*+ & M;"&)"+ & $166"+& "09*+(:"02 & :'0'%()"6"02& ="+ & +1 );2 *10+ & 2"#$0*M;"+ & "2 & 2"#$01)1:*M;"+ &H/ )F"% & r& x"66(2* & ab]]3 & aI & "2 & ="+ & ,1) * 2 *M;"+ & :1;9"%0"6"02()"+ . & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & ;0"&'2;="& ="& abb`& # * 2'"& ,(% & UOQ(:;*%%" & +;% & )"+ & (22 * 2;="+ & ="+ & J(0(=*"00"+& "2 & J(0(=*"0+&M;(02 & G & )( & #(,2;%"& "2 & ) L"02%",1+(:"& ="& JZa& +;::N%"& M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& >102 & 61*0+ &#10> *(0#"& G & #"22" & 2"#$01)1:*" & M;"& )"+ & $166"+& HUOQ(:;*%%" & abb_3 & c o & 4$(%,& abb`I . &J )(0#O& "2 & !�$% & 0;(0#"02 & #"22" & (>> * %6(2 *10& "0& = * > >'%"0#*(02 & )"+ & >"66"+& [:'"+ & ="+ &K";0"+& >"66"+3 & #"+ & ="%0*N%"+ & ,%'>'%(02 & " ) )"+ & (;++ * & ="+ & +1 );2 *10+ & 2"#$01)1:*M;"+ &HJ )(0#O& r& !�$% & abbk3 & cj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d5U&ab]a3 &k]I . &

!"#)"//0&'"#(1-.#%+5'% (1%) ( 2":%+) (

/;& J(0(=(3 & UOQ(:;*%%" & (>> * %6"& M;"& _bm& ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& ,%19"0(02 & ="+ & >1O"%+ &+102 & #(;+'"+ & ,(% & )"+ & =',)(#"6"02+ & ,"%+100")+ 3 & ) L;2 * ) * +(2 *10& ="+ & (,,(%"* )+ &' )"#2%16'0(:"%+ 3 & )" &#$(;>>(:"&"2 & )( &# ) *6(2 *+(2 *10&HUOQ(:;*%%" &abb_3 &cI . & &

-"+ & '2;="+ & =(0+ & #"%2( *0+ & ,(O+ & ";%1,'"0+& ='6102%"02 & M;"& )"+ & >1O"%+ & G & %"9"0;& =1;F)" &#10+166"02& , );+ & = L'0"%: *" & M;"& #";E& G & %"9"0;& + *6,)" & ,;*+M;L * )+ & #10+166"02& , );+ &

Page 34: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 4

HU d5U& ab]a3 & ako & J )(0#O& (0=& !�$% & abbk3 & cjI . & 8"+ & >1O"%+ & 1n& )"+ & >"66"+& 0"& 2%(9(* ) )( *"02 &,(+3 & 6(*+ & ="6";%(*"02 & G & )( & 6(*+103 & #10+166(*"02 & (;++ * & 61*0+ & = L'0"%: *" & M;"& )"+ &>1O"%+ & G & =1;F)"+ & %"9"0;+& HJ )(0#O& (0=& !�$% & abbk3 & cjI . & - L;0& (;2%" & #W2'3 & )"+ & *0=*9 *=;+ &(9"# & ="+ & %"9"0;+& , );+ & 61="+2"+ & 0"& ,";9"02 & ,(+ & 0'#"++( *%"6"02& +" & ,(O"% & ="+ &$(F*2(2 *10+ & "2C1;& ="+ & ' )"#2%16'0(:"%+ &61*0+ & '0"%:*91%"+& HJ )(0#O& (0=& !�$% & abbk3 & c`o &J$() * >1;% &ab]b3 &]^^DabbI . & &

- L(;2%"+ & '2;="+ & * ) );+2%"02 & M;"& )"+ & $166"+& #10+166"02& , );+ & = L'0"%: *" & M;"& )"+ &>"66"+. &?(% &"E"6,)"3 &;0"&'2;="&#16,(%(02 & )"+ &$166"+&#' ) *F(2( *%"+ &(9"# & )"+ & >"66"+&#' ) *F(2( *%"+ & ='6102%" & M;"& )"+ & $166"+3 & +1;9"02 & "0& %( *+10& ="& )";%+ & %"9"0;+& , );+ &' )"9'+ & H * ) + & #10+166"02& , );+I 3 & #10+166"02& , );+ & = L'0"%: *" & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+3 & +;%21;2 &=(0+& )"+ & +"#2";%+ & =;& 2%(0+,1%2 & "2 & ="& ) L( ) *6"02(2 *10& H!Ä2O & r& J(% )++10DP(0O(6(& ab]bI. &?1;%M;1* & )"+ & $166"+& #10+166"02D * )+ & , );+ & = L'0"%: *"} & -(0+& M;")+ & +"#2";%+ & +" &%"2%1;9"& #"22" & #10+166(2*10& H(;2161F* )" 3 & ' )"#2% *# * 2' 3 & ' )"#2%10*M;"3 & "2# . I & } & 8"+ &%',10+"+ & G & #"+ & M;"+2 *10+ & #102% *F;"%( *"02 & (;& +;##N+ & ="+ & #(6,(:0"+& = L'=;#(2 *10& ,1;% &%'=;*%" & )( &#10+166(2*10&=L'0"%:*" &="+ & *0=*9 *=;+. & &

A;(02 & G & )( & #10+166(2*10& =L'0"%:*"3 & )"+ & +2%(2':*"+ & ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="& 5U4& *6,) *M;(02 &="+ & (;:6"02(2 *10+ & ="+ & 2(% * >+ & ,1;% & )"+ & +1;%#"+ & '0"%:'2 *M;"+ & (;%102 & ;0& *6,(#2 & , );+ &:%(0=& +;% & )"+ & ,(;9%"+3 & M;* & +102 & "0& 6(K1% * 2' & ="+ & >"66"+& HJ$() * >1;% & ab]bI . & /> *0 &= L'9 *2"% & = L"E(#"%F"% & )"+ & *0':() * 2'+ & +1# *( )"+ 3 & ;0"& /-4& ="+ & F"+1*0+ & '0"%:'2 *M;"+ & ( *0+ * &M;"& ="+ & +2%(2':*"+ & ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="& 5U4& *++;+ & ="& )( & #10+166(2*10& '0"%:'2 *M;"& ,(% &) L(;:6"02(2 *10& ="+ & 2(% * >+ & H1;& ="+ & 2(E"+I & =1*2 & =10#& e2%" & ">>"#2;'". & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & )"+ &)1#(2( *%"+ & 0"& +102 & ,(+ & 21;K1;%+ & "0& 6"+;%"& ="& ,1;91*% & #$(0:"% & )";% & $(F*2(2 *10& (> *0 &M;L" ) )" & +1 *2 & , );+ & ">> *#(#"& (;& 0 *9"(;& '0"%:'2 *M;". & 8"+ & (;:6"02(2 *10+& ="+ & 2(% * >+ &= L' )"#2% *# * 2' & (;%( *"02 & =10#& ="+ & *6,(#2+ & 0':(2 * >+ & +;% & )( & M;() * 2' & ="& 9 *" & ="+ & )1#(2( *%"+ &+(0+ & M;L * )+ & ,;*++"02 & 9'% *2(F)"6"02& %'=;*%" & )";% & 0 *9"(;& ="& #10+166(2*10& =L'0"%:*" . & w &61*0+ & = L1F) *:"% & )"+ & ,%1,% *'2( *%"+ & G & (6') *1%"% & )";%+ & F[2 *6"02+ 3 & #"+ & 6"+;%"+ & 0"&>"%( *"02 &M;L"E(#"%F"% & )"+ & *0':() * 2'+ &+1# *( )"+ & HU d5U&ab]a3 &kaoJ$() * >1;% &ab]a3 &]^^DabbI . &

8"+ & '2;="+& ">>"#2;'"+ & ,(% & J )(0#O& "2 & !�$% & ='6102%"02 & (;++ * & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& H"0& 2(02 &M;"& # * 21O"00"+& "2 & +# *"02 * > *M;"+I & >"%( *"02 & ="+ & #$1*E & '0"%:'2 *M;"+ & = * > >'%"02+ & ="& #";E&="+ & $166"+. & U0& ">>"2 3 & )"+ & >"66"+& 102 & 2"0=(0#"& G & ,%'>'%"% & )"+ & '0"%:*"+ & f &=1;#"+ &i &%"01;9")(F)"+ & 2" ) )"+ & M;"& ) L$O=%1')"#2% *# * 2' & "2 & ) L'0"%: *" & '1) *"00"3 & 2(0=*+ & M;"& )"+ &$166"+& ,%'>N%"02 & )"+ & '0"%: *"+ & f & )1;%="+ &i & 2" ) )"+ & M;"& )"+ & #16F;+2 *F )"+ & >1++ * )"+ & "2 &) L'0"%: *" & 0;#)'(*%" & HJ )(0#O& (0=& !�$% & abbk3 & cjI . & -"& , );+ 3 & #"+ & (;2";%"+ & ,"0+"02 & M;"&) L(;:6"02(2 *10& =;& 016F%"& ="& >"66"+& =(0+ & )" & +"#2";% & ="& ) L'0"%: *" & ( *="%( *2 & G & #$(0:"% &)( & 0(2;%"& ="& #" & +"#2";%3 & M;* & 9'$*#;)" & (#2;") )"6"02& )"+ & ,% *1% * 2'+ & "2 & ="+ & 9( )";%+ &6(+#;) *0"+ & H !" !# $ 3 & clI . & u1;2">1 *+ 3 & " ) )"+ & %"#100(*++"02 & M;"& )"+ & K";0"+& $166"+& 102 &= * > >'%"02"+ &(22 * 2;="+&M;"& )";%+ &#1 ) )N:;"+&6(+#;) *0+ &, );+ &[:'+ & H !" !# $ 3 &clI . & &

Page 35: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 5

!"#)"//0&'"#(

8 L;2 * ) * +(2 *10& *0=*%"#2" & = L'0"%:*" & ,(% & )"+ & #$1*E & ="& #10+166(2*10& #102% *F;"& ="& >(p10&+ *:0 *> *#(2 *9" & (;E& '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4. & J"22" & ;2 * ) * +(2 *10& *0=*%"#2" & = L'0"%:*" & #16,%"0=&) L( ) *6"02(2 *103 & )( & #10+166(2*10& ="& F *"0+ & H ) L'0"%: *" & %"M;*+" & ,1;% & )" & #O# )" & ="& 9 *" & ="+ &,%1=;*2+I & "2 & )"+ & )1 *+ * %+ & "2 & ="+ & '2;="+& "+2 *6"02 & M;L" ) )" & #10+2 * 2;"& ="& kb& G & , );+ & ="& `bm&="& )( & #10+166(2*10& =L'0"%:*" & HJ(% )++10DP(0O(6(3 & U0:+2%�6& "2 & P1v& abb`I . & @0"& '2;="&+;% & ) L"6,%"*02" & #(%F10"& ="+ & >1O"%+ & ">>"#2;'"& "0& 5%(0="D<%"2(:0"& ='6102%" &':()"6"02& M;"& )"+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& %" ) *'"+ & G & )( & #10+166(2*10& ="& ,%1=;*2+ & H )" & #( )#; ) &#16,%"0=& )"+ & '6*++ *10+ & %" ) *'"+ & G & )( & ,%1=;#2 *103 & 6e6"& G & ) L'2%(0:"%3 & "2 & (; & 2%(0+,1%2 &="+ & ,%1=;*2+ & ="& #10+166(2*10I & (;:6"02"& ="& km& #$(M;"& (00'"& =",;*+ & ]^^b& "2 &(;:6"02"02 & (;++ * & (9"# & )"+ & %"9"0;+& H-%;#v6(0& r& V(#v+10& abb^I . & 8"+ & "6,%"*02"+ &'#1)1:*M;"+& "2 & ="& #(%F10"& +102 & (;++ * & *0> );"0#'"+& ,(% & )" & +2(2;2 & +1# *1'#1016*M;"& ="+ &*0=*9 *=;+. & U0 & ">>"2 3 & )"+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& (;:6"02"02 & (9"# & )" & %"9"0;& H6(*+10+3 &(;2161F* )"+ 3 &'M;*,"6"02+ &' )"#2%10*M;"+I . &

8 L( ) *6"02(2 *10& H,%1=;#2 *103 & = *+2% *F;2 *10I & #102% *F;"& ="& >(p10& + *:0 *> *#(2 *9" & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & U0 & ">>"2 3 & )"+ & #$1*E & ( ) *6"02(*%"+ & "2 & )"+ & = *N2"+ & 102 & ;0& *6,(#2 &+;% & ) L"09*%100"6"02& "2 & )"+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4. & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & ) L(:% *#; )2;%" & + L(9N%" & e2%" &)( & +1;%#"& ,% *0# *,()" & ="& 6'2$(0"& "2 & = L1EO="& 0 *2%";E& HRaZI3 & =";E& 5U4& *6,1%2(02+ . & 8" &6'2$(0"& "+2 & ,%1=;*2 & ,(% & )( & = *:"+2 *10& ="& #"%2( *0+ & (0*6(;E& %;6*0(02+ & H )"+ & ,"2+ & ="&9(#$"+Å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r& 510Q()"Q &abb^3 & ]lb`4I . & 8( & ,%1=;#2 *10& ="& )':;6"+& %" K"22" & ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& JZa3 & 6(*+ & 2%N+ & ,";&="+ & (;2%"+ & 5U4. & @0"& #(%122" & %" K"22" & =10#& b 3cav:& =L'M;*9( )"02+ & JZa & ,(% & v * )1:%(66"&2(0=*+ &M;"& )" &Fq;>&"0&,%1=;*2 & kb. & 8" & 2%(0+,1%2 & "0&(9 *10&="+ &,%1=;*2+ & ( ) *6"02(*%"+ &"+2 &(;++ * & ;0& >(#2";% & *6,1%2(02 & M;(02 & (;E& '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& %" ) *'+ & G & ) L( ) *6"02(2 *10. & ?(% &"E"6,)"3 &;0& >%; *2 & 2%1,*#( ) & 2 %(0+,1%2' &,(% &(9 *10&,";2 &,%1=;*%" &]]v:&JZa&'M;*9( )"02 &,(% &v * )1:%(66"& H !" !# $ 3 & ]lbl4I . & @0"& = *N2" & F(+'"& +;%21;2 & +;% & ="+ & ,%1=;*2+ & ='% *9'+ & ="+ &, )(02"+ & H,%1=;*2+ & )1#( )"6"02ÅI &#102% *F;"&=10#&G &%'=;*%" & )"+ &'6*++ *10+ &="&5U4j. & &

Z% 3 & ="+ & '2;="+& ='6102%"02 & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& 0L102 & ,(+ & )"+ & 6e6"+& $(F*2;="+ & ="&#10+166(2*10& M;"& )"+ & $166"+& "2 & M;L" ) )"+ & +102 & =(0+ & #"%2( *0+ & ,(O+ & ="& ) LZJ-U&%"+,10+(F)"+ & ="& _bm& ="+ & ='#*+ *10+ & ="& =',"0+"+ & ="+ & >1O"%+ & HF *"0& M;"& )"+ & $166"+&

]"^-2"D1%*2")%D*$,)2"*D/$-1&2";%2"@2)"&D*%@1,$-)"'2%82-1"0((2&"3%);%+F"PG\"_"W$,&"HJ0&())$-O`0-Q0/07"I--,a07"6-<)1&b/7"42E2@a07"0-*"`$a7"4,T1"=GGKL:"

Page 36: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 6

=',"0+"02 & _bm& ="+ & %"9"0;+ÅI & HU d5U& ab]a3 & a]o & ZJ-U& abb_I . & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & ,;*+M;"& )"+ &$(F*2;="+& ( ) *6"02(*%"+ & ="+ & $166"+& "2 & ="+ & >"66"+& +102 & = * > >'%"02"+3 & )" & :"0%"& ,";2 &(91*% & ;0& *6,(#2 & +;% & )"+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& %" ) *'+ & G & ) L( ) *6"02(2 *10. & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & )"+ &>"66"+& =(0+ & )"+ & ,(O+ & ='9")1,,'+& 6(0:"02 & 61*0+ & ="& 9 *(0="& "2 & , );+ & ="& >%; *2+ & "2 &)':;6"+& M;"& )"+ & $166"+& HU d5U& ab]a3 & a]& o & !Ä2O & rJ(% )++10& ab]bI . & -"+ & #(6,(:0"+& ="&%'=;#2 *10& ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& ) *'"+ & G & ) L( ) *6"02(2 *10& ,%1> * 2"%( *"02 & =10#& = L;0"&(0()O+" &= * > >'%"0#*'"&+" )10& )" &+"E". & &

;+0#)7"+&) (

8"& +"#2";% & ="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ & "+2 & ;0& ' )'6"02& # )' & ="& )( & %'=;#2 *10& ="+ & 5U4. & /;& A;'F"#3 & )" &+"#2";% & ="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ & #102% *F;"& G & ck3`m& ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& H?/JJ& abab3 & aaI . & ?(% &"E"6,)"3 & ;0"& '2;="& +;% & ) L"6,%"*02" & #(%F10"& ="+ & >1O"%+ & ">>"#2;'"& "0& 5%(0="D<%"2(:0"& ='6102%" & M;"& )"+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& (;:6"02"02 & (9"# & )"+ & %"9"0;+3 & +;%21;2 &,1;% & )"+ & '6*++ *10+ & %" ) *'"+ & (;E& )1 *+ * %+ & "2 & (;E & =',)(#"6"02+ & "0& (9 *10. & / *0+ * 3 & )"+ &%'=;#2 *10+ & ="& JZa& %'() *+'"+ & =(0+& )"+ & (00'"+& ]^^b& "0& /0:)"2"%%" & "0& %"6,)(p(02 & )" &#$(%F10& ,(% & )" & :(Q & 0(2;%") & ,1;% & #$(;>>"% & )"+ & >1O"%+ & 102 & 9 * 2" & '2' & #16,"0+'"+ & ,(% & )"+ &'6*++ *10+ & ="& JZa& %" ) *'"+ & (;E& 91O(:"+ & "0& (9 *10o & "0& ">>"2 3 & #"+ & '6*++ *10+ & 102 & (;:6"02'&="& _jm& "02%" & ]^^b& "2 & abbc& H-%;#v6(0& (0=& V(#v+10& abb^I . & & -"+ & '2;="+ & "0& U;%1,"&='6102%"02 & M;"& )"+ & $166"+& #10+166"02& , );+ & = L'0"%:*" & "0& 2%(0+,1%2 & H!Ä2O & r&J(% )++10DP(0O(6(& ab]bI . & 8 L'2;="& ="& V1$0++10D8(2$(6& (9(0#"& M;"& )"+ & $166"+& +" &=',)(#"02 & =(9(02(:"& M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& "0& (;2161F* )" & "2 & "0& (9 *10& HF"(;#1;,& "0& # )(++" &(>>( *%" & (;++ * I & H V1$0++10D8(2$(6& abblI. & @0"& '2;="& 6102%'()( *+" & %'() *+'"& "0& abbj& ,(% &)( & 41# *'2' &="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ & ="&B102%'() & H4uBI& *0=*M;"& (;++ * & M;"&`jm&="+ &=',)(#"6"02+ &="+ & >"66"+& +" & >102 &"0&(;2161F* )" & ( )1%+ &M;"&jam&="+ &=',)(#"6"02+ &="+ &$166"+& +102 &%'( ) *+'+ & "0& (;2161F* )" & H91*% & J10+"* ) & ="+ & B102%'()( *+"+ & abb^3 & ]_I . & Z0& "E,) *M;"& #"+ &= * > >'%"0#"+ &"02%" &(;2%"+ &,(% & )"+ &#$1*E &="&+2O )" &="&9 *" & H, . &"E . &"0=%1*2 &=;& 2%(9(* ) 3 & )1 *+ * %+ 3 &K";0"+ & "0>(02+ & G & )( & 6(*+10I & "2 & ,(% & )"+ & %"++1;%#"+ & '#1016*M;"+. & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & )"+ &>"66"+& 2%(9(* ) )"02 & , );+ & +1;9"02 & =(0+ & )"+ & #"02%"+D9 * ) )"+ 3 & , );+ & >(# * )"6"02& (##"++ *F )"+ &,(% & )"+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ & "0& #166;03 & ( )1%+ & M;"& )"+ & $166"+& 2%(9(* ) )"02 & , );+ & +1;9"02 & =(0+&="+ & ;+ *0"+ & )1#( ) *+'"+ & "0& ="$1%+ & ="+ & #"02%"+ & ;%F(*0+. & 8 L'2;="& ='6102%" & ':()"6"02&M;L(;&61*0+ & `bm&="+ & =',)(#"6"02+ & +102 & ">>"#2;'+ & ,1;% & )"+ & )1 *+ * %+ & "2 & M;"& )"+ & $166"+&91O(:"02 & , );+ & )1 *0 & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& ,1;% & #" & F;2 & H V1$0++10D8(2$(6& abblo & 91 *% & (;++ * &J )(0#O& (0=& !�$% & abbk3 & cjI . & 8 L[:"& ="+ & >"66"+& "+2 & (;++ * & ;0& >(#2";%3 & ,;*+M;L;0& , );+ &:%(0=& 016F%"& ="& >"66"+& [:'"+ & 0"& ,1++N="02 & ,(+ & = L(;2161F* )" & 1;& 0L102 & ,(+ & ="&,"%6*+ &="& #10=;*%". &? );+ & )"+ & %"9"0;+&="+ & >"66"+&(;:6"02"023 &61*0+ & #"22" &= * > >'%"0#"&"+2 & ,%1010#'"& HJ(% )++10DP(0O(6(& r8*0='0& ]^^^3 & cblDcb_I 3 & +(;> & ,1;% & ) L;2 * ) * +(2 *10& ="&) L(9 *10. & &

-"& , );+ 3 & =(0+ & )"+ & #"02%"+ & ;%F(*0+ & M;'F'#1*+ 3 & )"+ & >"66"+& +102 & )"+ & , );+ & :%(0="+&;2 * ) * +(2% *#"+ & ="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ & "0& #166;0& H?//-43 & c`I . & w & B102%'() 3 & " ) )"+ & #10+2 * 2;"02 &

Page 37: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 7

`cm& ="+ & ;2 * ) * +(2% *#"+ & "2 & ;2 * ) * +(2";%+ & =;& 6'2%1& "2 & `lm& ="+ & ;2 * ) * +(2% *#"+ & "2 & ;2 * ) * +(2";%+ &="+ & (;21F;+. & 8"+ & >"66"+& =1*9"02 & =10#& >( *%" & ,(%2 *" & ="+ & ='# *+ *10+ & #10#"%0(02 & )" &2%(0+,1%2 & "0& #166;0& "2 & ) L(##"++ *F * ) * 2' & H,$O+ *M;"& "2 & > *0(0#*N%"I & =1*2 & ="6";%"% & (;&#q;%& ="& #"+ & ='# *+ *10+ & HJ10+"* ) & ="+ &B102%'()( *+"+ & abb^I . & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & G & 810=%"+3 & )"+ &2(% * >+ &,1;% & )" & 2%(0+,1%2 &"0&#166;0&+102 &, );+ &F(+ &,1;% & )"+ & >(6* ) )"+ &"2 & )"+ & 2%(9(* ) )";+"+ &"2 & 2%(9(* ) )";%+ &G &2"6,+&,(%2 *" ) & HU d5U&ab]a3 &kaDkkI . & &

J166"& )" & %"#100(s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f&#10K;:(*+10& ="+ &2"6,+&i &"02%" & )";% &9 *" &,%1>"++ *100") )" &"2 & )";%+ &1F) *:(2 *10+ & >(6* ) *( )"+ 3 & +;%21;2 &,1;% & )"+ &>"66"+& G & )( & 2e2" & ="& >(6* ) )"+ & 6101,(%"02( )"+ 3 & "2 & )"+ & = * > > *#; )2'+ & %" ) *'"+ & (;& 6(0M;"&=L(;21016*"& "2 & G & )( & 6'#100(*++(0#"& ="+ & "+,(#"+ & ,;F) *#+ & ="& #"%2( *0"+ & >"66"+3 & ,1;% &="+ & %( *+10+ & >(6* ) *( )"+ & "2C1;& #;)2;%" ) )"+ & HJ10+"* ) & ="+ & B102%'()( *+"+ & abb^3]kI . & J"+ &= * > > *#; )2'+ &=1*9"02 &e2%" & *0# );+"+ &=(0+ & ) L' )(F1%(2 *10&"2 & ) L *6,)(02(2 *10&="+ &2%(0+,1%2+ &"0&#166;0. & -"& , );+ 3 & +" )10& V1$0++10D8(2$(63& )( & +'#;% *2' & ="+ & 2%(0+,1%2+ & "0& #166;0& "+2 &;0&#% * 2N%" & *6,1%2(02 &,1;% & )"+ & >"66"+&+;'=1*+"+ & H V1$0++10D8(2$(6&abblI. &w &B102%'() 3 &;0"& '2;="& ">>"#2;'"& ,(% & )" & J10+"* ) & ="+ & B102%'()( *+"+ & ( & ':()"6"02& +1;)"9'&) L *0+'#;% *2' & %"++"02 *" & ,(% & )"+ & >"66"+& "0& #"%2( *0+ & ,1*02+ & =;& %'+"(;& ="& 2%(0+,1%2 3 &#166"& )"+ & (%%e2+ & = L(;21F;+& 6() & '# )( *%'+ & "2 & #"%2( *0"+ & +2(2 *10+ & ="& 6'2%1 & HJ10+"* ) & ="+ &B102%'()( *+"+ &abb^3 &kkI . & & 8( & 4uB&(&=10#& *6,)(02' & )" & +"%9 *#" &f &"02%" &=";E&(%%e2+ &i &M;* &,"%6"2& (;E& >"66"+& ="& ='F(%M;"% & "02%" & =";E& (%%e2+ & ,%'9;+ & )" & +1 *% & "2 & )( & 0;*2 . & @0"&(0()O+" &/-4&="+ &,1) * 2 *M;"+ &="& 2%(0+,1%2+ &"0& #166;0&"2 &="& )( &, )(#"&="& #";ED# * &=(0+ & )( &);22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & (;& A;'F"#& %" )N9"%( *2 & +(0+ & =1;2"& =L(;2%"+ & #% * 2N%"+ &M;"& #";E&(#2;") )"6"02& %"2"0;+&=(0+& )" &?/JJ&abab& H ) L(##"++ *F * ) * 2' & "2 & ) L"> > *#(# *2'IH?/JJ&abab3 &akI . &

8 L'=;#(2 *10& "2 & )( & #100(*++(0#"& =L( )2"%0(2 *9"+ & '0"%:'2 *M;"+ & +102 & *# * & ="+ & ' )'6"02+ & # )'+ &,1;% & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & ="& #16,1%2"6"02& "2 & = L$(F*2;="+ & ="& #10+166(2*10& HU d5U&ab]a3 & a]I . & 4" )10& #"%2( *0"+ & '2;="+& =(0+& )"+ & ,(O+ & ='9")1,,'+3 & )"+ & >"66"+& +102 & , );+ &,%e2"+ & G & #$(0:"% & )";%+ & #16,1%2"6"02+ & "2 & )";%+ & $(F*2;="+& ="& #10+166(2*10& ,1;% & ="+ &%( *+10+ & "09*%100"6"02()"+ & HU d5U& ab]a3 & aao &|16"0L+ & U09*%106"02() & R"2t1%v& (0=& 2$"&R(2 *10() &7"="%(2 *10&1> &|16"0L+ & d0+2 * 2;2" &abblI. & &

?(% & #102%"3 & * ) & >(;2 & '9 *2"% 3 & +1;+ & ,%'2"E2" & ="& 012"% & ="+ & = * > >'%"0#"+ & =(0+& )"+ & %W )"+ &(22% *F;'+ &(;E& >"66"+&"2 &(;E&$166"+3 &M;"& )( & 2[#$"&="& %'=;*%" & ) L"6,%"*02" &'#1)1:*M;"&="+ & >1O"%+ & 0"& %"9 *"00"& ;0*M;"6"02& M;Ç(;E& >"66"+. & J"22" & '9"02;() * 2' & "E(#"%F"%(*2 & )" &+;%,1*=+ & ="+ & 2[#$"+ & 6'0(:N%"+ & +;% & " ) )"+ . & ? );+ *";%+ & ,(%2 *# *,(02"+ & %"0#102%'"+ & 102 &+1;)"9'& )" &% *+M;"&="&%'+"%9"% &(;E& >"66"+& & )" &%W )" &="&f &+(;9"% & )( &, )(0N2"&i . & & &

Page 38: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 8

8 L *0# );+ *10&="& )( &= *6"0+*10&="&:"0%"&=(0+& )( & %'=;#2 *10&="+ &5U4&,1+"&(;++ * & )( &M;"+2 *10&="& ) L"> > *#(# *2' & ="+ & +2%(2':*"+ & "09*+(:'"+. & U0 & ">>"2 3 & , );+ & #"+ & +2%(2':*"+ & +102 & *0# );+ *9"+3 &, );+ & " ) )"+ & % *+M;"02 & = L(91*% & ="+ & *6,(#2+ & #10+*='%(F)"+ & +;% & )( & %'=;#2 *10& ="+ & 5U4& H/ )F"% &"2 & x"66(2* & ab]]I . & /> *0 & = Le2%" & ">> *#(#"+3 & )"+ & #(6,(:0"+& ="& +"0+ *F * ) * +(2 *10& "2 & = L(#2 *10&M;(02 & G & ) L(22'0;(2 *10& ="+ & '6*++ *10+ & ="& 5U4& =1*9"02 & 2"0*% & #16,2"& ="+ & = * > >'%"0#"+ &"02%" & )"+ &+"E"+ &=(0+& )( &,"%#",2 *10&="& ) L"0K";&="+ &#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+&"2 &=(0+& )"+ &%W )"+ &%"+,"#2 * >+ &M;"& )"+ & >"66"+&"2 & )"+ &$166"+&,";9"02 & K1;"% & HU d5U&ab]a3 &]_I . &

7*0()"6"023 & (; & 0 *9"(;& *02"%0(2 *10() 3 & )" & A;'F"#& "2 & )" & J(0(=(& ,";9"02 & ,(%2 *# *,"% & G & )( &F1;%+"& +;% & )" & #(%F10"& "2 & (; & 6'#(0*+6"& ="& ='9")1,,"6"02& ,%1,%"& #%''+ & ,(% & )" &?%121#1)" & ="& PO121. & 8"+ & f &#%'=*2+ & #(%F10"&i & +102 & ( *0+ * & 1#2%1O'+ & G & ="+ & #16,(:0*"+ &M;'F'#1*+"+ & "2 & #(0(=*"00"+& ='9")1,,(02 & ="+ & ,%1K"2+ & ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="& 5U4& =(0+& ="+ &,(O+ & "0& ='9")1,,"6"02. & Z%3 & ;0"& (0()O+" & = * > >'%"0#*'"& +" )10& )"+ & +"E"+ & =1*2 & e2%" &">>"#2;'"& (> *0 & ="& +(91*% & #166"02& )"+ & (9(02(:"+ & "2 & *0#109'0*"02+ & ="& #"+ & ,%1K"2+ & +102 &= *+2% *F;'+ & "02%" & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & )"+ & >"66"+. & ? );+ *";%+ & '2;="+& ='6102%"02 &">>"#2 *9"6"02& M;"& )"+ & 6':(,%1K"2+ & '0"%:'2 *M;"+& +102 & +1;9"02 & ,% *9 * )': *'+ & ,1;% & #"+ &#%'=*2+ & #(%F10"& (;& ) *"; & ="& , );+ & ,"2 * 2+ & ,%1K"2+ & = L">> *#(# *2' & '0"%:'2 *M;"& ="+2 *0'+ & (;E&6'0(:"+ &"2 &F'0'> *# *(02 &6(K1% * 2( *%"6"02&(;E& >"66"+&H/ )F"% &"2 &x"66(2* &ab]]3 &cI . & &

&

="#,*#&C*&/*+3*/+3*&&

• -100'"+&+"E;'"+&+;%&)"+&,"%#",2*10+&"2&(22*2;="+&"09"%+&)"+&#$(0:"6"02+&#)*6(2*M;"+&HUd5U&ab]aIo&

• -100'"+&+"E;'"+&+;%&)"+&,"%#",2*10+&"2&(22*2;="+&"09"%+&)"+&,1)*2*M;"+&'0"%:'2*M;"+o&

• -100'"+&+"E;'"+&+;%&)"+&#100(*++(0#"+&%")*'"+&(;E&#$(0:"6"02+&#)*6(2*M;"+&H#(;+"+3&*6,(#2+3&%'=;#2*10Io&

• /-4&="&)(&#102%*F;2*10&="+&>"66"+&"2&="+&$166"+&(;E&'6*++*10+&="&5U43&#.DGD=.&="+&"6,%"*02"+&#(%F10"&X&

o -100'"+&+"E;'"+&="+&$(F*2;="+&="&#10+166(2*10&="&,%1=;*2+&H*0#);(02&)"+&,%1=;*2+&,);+&'#1)1:*M;"+I&

o -100'"+&+"E;'"+&,1;%&)"&+"#2";%&="&)L()*6"02(2*10&H,.&"E.&#10+166(2*10&="&9*(0="I&

o -100'"+&+"E;'"+&+;%&)"+&$(F*2;="+&="&#10+166(2*10&=L'0"%:*"&

o /-4&=(0+&)"&+"#2";%&="+&2%(0+,1%2+&X&

Page 39: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 3 9

! x(F*2;="+&"2&61O"0+&="&2%(0+,1%2&HO&#16,%*+&)"&61="3&)"+&=*+2(0#"+&,(%#1;%;"+3&)(&>%'M;"0#"&"2&)"+&%(*+10+&,1;%&)"+&=',)(#"6"02+I&

! @2*)*+(2*10&="+&2%(0+,1%2+&"0&#166;0&HO&#16,%*+&)"+&#%*2N%"+&%"2"0;+&,1;%&>(*%"&#"&#$1*E&="&2%(0+,1%2I&

! @2*)*+(2*10&="+&+O+2N6"+&="&#16,"0+(2*10&=L'6*++*10&="&5U4&H,(%&"E"6,)"&,1;%&#";E&"2&#"))"+&M;*&91O(:"02&"0&(9*10I&

o /-4&="+&>(#2";%+&M;*&*0>);"0#"02&#"+&#$1*E&="&#10+166(2*10&

o /-4&="&)(&91)102'&="&#$(0:"%&)"+&#16,1%2"6"02+&"2&="+&>(#2";%+&M;*&*0>);"0#"02&#"))"D#*&

o /-4&="+&)*"0+&"02%"&)"+&#100(*++(0#"+&="+&*0=*9*=;+&%")*'"+&(;E&#$(0:"6"02+&#)*6(2*M;"+&"2&)"+&(#2*10+&M;L"))"+&"2&*)+&+102&,%e2+&G&>(*%"&,1;%&);22"%&#102%"&)"+&#$(0:"6"02+&#)*6(2*M;"+&H|1)>&r&B1+"%&ab]]I&

! /0()O+"&="+&1F+2(#)"+&"02%"&)(&#100(*++(0#"&"2&)L(#2*10&H#$(0:"6"02+&="&#16,1%2"6"02+&G&)10:&2"%6"3&=*>>'%"0#"+&:'0'%(2*100"))"+&"2&+;*9(02&)"+&6*)*";EI&

o J"+&,"%#",2*10+&"2&#"22"&91)102'&="&#$(0:"%&="&#16,1%2"6"02&+102D"))"+&)*'"+&(;&%W)"&>'6*0*0&=(0+&)"&f&,%"0=%"&+1*0&i&Hf&#(%*0:&iI&}&&

• -100'"+&+;%&)(&%",%'+"02(2*10&="+&>"66"+&,%1>"++*100"))"+&=(0+&)"&+"#2";%&="&)L'0"%:*"&"2&="+&2%(0+,1%2+3&O&#16,%*+&)(&%"#$"%#$"&=(0+&)"&+"#2";%&'0"%:'2*M;".&

&

- # * ! * ) % , ) . < ' # * ! 0 4 , 0 ,6 ) , ) ' 3 ( !

8 L(=(,2(2 *10& (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& + *:0 * > *" & f &21;2" & (#2 *10& M;* & %'=;*2 & )"+ &*6,(#2+ & 0':(2 * >+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & 1;& M;* & ,"%6"2& ="& 2 * %"% & ,%1> * 2 & ="+ &01;9") )"+ & 1##(+ *10+ & M;* & "0& ='#1;)"02. &i & H45/JJ& abab3 & ]aI . & 81%+M;L10& ,(% )" &= L(=(,2(2 *103 & 10& ,(% )" & =10#& (;++ * & =" & f &%'+ * ) *"0#"&i 3 & #" & M;"& )" & :1;9"%0"6"02&M;'F'#1*+ & ='> *0 *2 & #166"& '2(02 & f & ) L(,2 * 2;="& =L;0& +O+2N6"& H *0# );(02 & )"+ & '#1+O+2N6"+I 3 &= L;0"& #1) )"#2 *9 * 2' & 1;& =L;0"& +1# *'2' & ,12"02 *" ) )"6"02& "E,1+'+ & G & ="+ & ( )'(+ & ="& + L(=(,2"% 3 &"0 & %'+ *+2(02 & 1;& "0& #$(0:"(023 & "0& 9;"& =L'2(F) * % & "2 & ="& 6(*02"0*% & ="+ & +2%;#2;%"+ & "2 & ;0&0 *9"(;&="&>10#2 *100"6"02&(##",2(F)"+ &i & H45/JJ&abab3 &]aI . & &

8( & #(,(#*2' & ="& + L(=(,2"% & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "+2 & *0> );"0#'"& ,(% & )" & +2(2;2 &+1# *1'#1016*M;". & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & )"+ & ,(;9%"+ & 9 *9"02 & +1;9"02 & =(0+& ="+ & "0=%1*2+ & "2 & ="+ &#10=*2 *10+ & )"+ & %"0=(02 & , );+ & 9;)0'%(F)"+ & (;E& #(2(+2%1,$"+& 0(2;%") )"+ . & ?;*+M;L"0&:'0'%( ) & )"+ & >"66"+& +102 & , );+ & ,(;9%"+ & M;"& )"+ & $166"+& H/J47& ab]b3 & acDa`I 3 & " ) )"+ &

Page 40: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 0

0L(;%102 & ,";2De2%" & ,(+ & )"+ & 61O"0+& ="& +" & ,(O"% & ="+ & 6"+;%"+ & = L(=(,2(2 *10&= *+,"0=*";+"+ & HU d5U&ab]a3 &]^I . &

8( & ,"%#",2 *10& ="+ & % *+M;"+& ,";2 & (;++ * & (91*% & ;0"& *0> );"0#"& +;% & )"+ & +2%(2':*"+ &= L(=(,2(2 *10& (=1,2'"+ & ,(% & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & )"+ & $166"+. & @0"& (0()O+" & = * > >'%"0#*'"& ="+ &,"%#",2 *10+ & ="+ & % *+M;"+& "+2 & =10#& 0'#"++( *%" & ,1;% & )"+ & +2%(2':*"+ & = L(=(,2(2 *10&"09*+(:'"+. & &

8"+ & >"66"+& =1*9"02 & ,(%2 *# *,"% & (;E& ='6(%#$"+& ="& ,%'9"02 *10& "2 & = L(=(,2(2 *10& ="+ &#(2(+2%1,$"+&0(2;%") )"+ 3 &#166"& ) L"E,) *M;"&-;0#(0& X &

; 6 ( 2+%, ( ,')-& ( ./3*,' ( 1'$ ( 2'33'$ ( 1+)$ ( 6 75 6+=/&+, -/) ( 1'$ ( $ ,&+,5<-'$ ( 1' ( *&50'), -/) ( 1'$ (

.+,+$,&/*T'$ > ( 1 7+,,5)%+, -/) ( 1'$ ( 15<^,$ ( ', ( 1' ( &5,+=6 -$$'3'), " ( W 6%$ ( *&5. -$53'), > ( 6'$ (

2'33'$ ( 1/-0'), ( *+&, -. -*'& ( +%4 ( 153+&.T'$ ( $% -0+),'$ ( Y ( *&5*+&+, -/) ( 1'$ ( 2+3-6 6'$ > ( 1'$ (

35)+<'$ ( ', ( 1'$ ( 3- 6 -'%4 ( 1' ( ,&+0+- 6 ( +%4 ( *T5)/3S)'$ ( . 6 -3+, -?%'$ ( '4,&_3'$ 9 (

5 ,+=6 - $$'3'), ( 1' (3'$%&'$ ( 1 7 -),'&0'), -/) ( ', ( 1' ( &5.%*5&+, -/)9 ( /&<+)-$+, -/) ( 1% ( 6 -'% ( 1% (

$ -) -$ ,&' 9 ( $/ -)$ ( *TU$ -?%'$ ( ', ( *$U.T/6/<-?%'$ ( +%4 ( ')2+),$ 9 ( /&<+)-$+, -/) ( 1' ( &5$'+%4 ( 1' (

*+&'),$ (', (1 7+3-$ " (HC%-@0-"=GGXL : "

&

="#,*#&C*&/*+3*/+3*&

• /-4&="+&+2%(2':*"+&=L(=(,2(2*10&(;E&#$(0:"6"02+&#)*6(2*M;"+&É&M;"))"+&+102&)"+&+2%(2':*"+&,%'>'%'"+&,(%&)"+&>"66"+3&M;"))"+&+102&#"))"+&,%'>'%'"+&,(%&)"+&$166"+}&A;"))"+&+102&)"+&+1);2*10+&=L(=(,2(2*10&(##",2(F)"+&,1;%&)"+&>"66"+}&?1;%&)"+&$166"+}&A;")+&+102&)"+&>(#2";%+&+1#*1'#1016*M;"+&*0>);"0p(02&#"+&#$1*E}&

• /-4&="+&*6,(#2+&="+&#(2(+2%1,$"+&0(2;%"))"+&H,(%&"E"6,)"&)"+&*010=(2*10+I&"2&="+&%W)"+&M;"&K1;"02&)"+&$166"+&"2&)"+&>"66"+&=(0+&)(&:"+2*10&="&#"+&#%*+"+o&

• /-4&="+&,"%#",2*10+&="&%*+M;".&

&

F / ' 2 ' !

8"& ?/JJ& abab& +1;) *:0"& ) L *6,1%2(0#"& =;& +; *9 * & ="+ & 6"+;%"+ & "2 & ,%1:%(66"+& (=1,2'+ &,1;% & )( & );22" &(;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+3 &"2 &(; &0 *9"(;&="& )( &%'=;#2 *10&="+ &5U4&"2 &(; &0 *9"(;& ="& ) L(=(,2(2 *10. & & ?1;% & #" & >( *%" 3 & )" & :1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ & ='9")1,,"%(& ;0"&+'% *" & = L *0=*#(2";%+ . & Z% 3 & )" & ?/JJ& abab& "+2 & "0#1%"& ;0"& >1 *+ & + * )"0# *";E& M;(02 & G & ="+ &*0=*#(2";%+ & ,1;% & )"+ & *6,(#2+ & = * > >'%"0#*'+ & ="& #"+ & 6"+;%"+ & +;% & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & )"+ &>"66"+. & d ) & "+2 & =10#& #%;# *( ) & M;L;0"& +'% *" & = L *0=*#(2";%+ & +1 *"02 & ='9")1,,'+& 010&+";)"6"02& ,1;% &6"+;%"% & ) L"> > *#(# *2' 3 & "0 & 2"%6"+& ="& %'=;#2 *10& ="& 5U4& "2 & ="& #1z2+ 3 & ="+ &

Page 41: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 1

6"+;%"+ & (=1,2'"+3 &6(*+ & (;++ * & (> *0 & ="& + L(++;%"% & M;"& #"+ &6"+;%"+ & 0 L"E(#"%F"02 & ,(+ & )"+ &*0':() * 2'+ &+1# *( )"+ 3 &O &#16,%*+ &#" ) )"+ &"02%" & )"+ &$166"+&"2 & )"+ & >"66"+. &

G #$$#* ! 0 ,( * ! 8 # * ! ' ( * ) , ( & # * ! 0 . & ' * ' 3 (( # 8 8 # * ! 6 3/ % ! 8 # * !& 7 ,( < #$#( ) * ! & 8 '$, ) ' 5 / # * !

J16,2"& 2"0;&="+ & ) *"0+ & M;* & "E *+2"02 & "02%" & )" & :"0%"& "2 & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+3 & "0&#" & M;* & ( & 2%( *2 & G & )( & %'=;#2 *10& ="+ & 5U4& "2 & G & ) L(=(,2(2 *10& (;E& *6,(#2+ & ="& #";ED# * 3 & * ) & "+2 &*6,1%2(02 & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& +1 *"02 & ,(% * 2( *%"6"02& *6,) *M;'"+ & =(0+ & )"+ & ='#*+ *10+ &#10#"%0(02 & )( & );22" & (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & & J"%2( *0+ & ="+ & f &='# *=";%+D"+ &i & & M;* &102 & ,(%2 *# *,'& G & #"22" & '2;="& 102 & #1%%1F1%'& #" & M;"& )"+ & '#% * 2+ & +1;)N9"02 & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+&='#*="02 & (;2%"6"02& M;"& )"+ & $166"+& "2 & M;L" ) )"+ & 102 & ;0"& #"%2( *0"& f&+"0+ *F * ) * 2' &i & (;E&"0K";E& "09*%100"6"02(;E. & & B(*+ 3 & 6()$";%";+"6"023 & (; & A;'F"#3 & )"+ & >"66"+& +102 &"0#1%"& +1;+D%",%'+"02'"+ & "0& ,1) * 2 *M;". & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & "0& ab]b3 & " ) )"+ & %",%'+"02( *"02 &+";)"6"02& a_3_m& ="& )( & =',;2(2 *10& G & ) L/++"6F)'"& 0(2 *10()" 3 & a^3km& ="+ & #10+"* ) )N%"+ & "2 &#10+"* ) )"%+ &=(0+ & )"+ &6;0*# *,() * 2'+ &"2 &]jm&="+ &6(*%"++"+ &"2 &6(*%"+ & H/J47&ab]b3 &a`I . &-"&, );+ 3 & ;0& +1;2 *"0& ,1;% & )"+ & >"66"+& "0& ,1) * 2 *M;"& "+2 & 0'#"++( *%" & (> *0 & M;"& #" ) )"+D# * &,;*++"02 & +;%6102"% & )"+ & 1F+2(# )"+ & M;* & )"+ & (22"0="02. & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & )" & !'+"(;& ="+ & ' );"+ &6;0*# *,()"+ & ="& )( &B102'%':*"DU+2 & K1;"& ;0& %W )" & *6,1%2(02 & =(0+ & )" & +1;2 *"0& ="+ & >"66"+&+" &,%'+"02(02 &"0&,1) * 2 *M;"&6;0*# *,( )" . & &

8"+ & >"66"+& ="9%( *"02 & (;++ * & e2%" & , );+ & ,%'+"02"+ & =(0+& )"+ & 1%:(0"+& ='#*+ *100")+ & ="+ &"02%",% *+"+ & ,;*+M;"& #" ) )"+D# * & ="9%102 & #102% *F;"% & ="& >(p10& + *:0* > *#(2 *9" & G & )( & );22" & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+. & & /;& A;'F"#3 & )"+ & >"66"+& +102 & "0#1%"& :%1++ *N%"6"02& +1;+D%",%'+"02'"+ & =(0+& )"+ & #10+"* )+ & = L(=6*0*+2%(2 *10& ="+ & "02%",% *+"+. & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & ;0"&'2;="& ="& abbl& ='6102%" & M;"& )"+ & >"66"+& 1##;,(*"02 & ]cm& ="+ & + *N:"+ & (;& +" *0 & ="+ &#10+"* )+ & = L(=6*0*+2%(2 *10& ="+ & , );+ & :%(0="+& "02%",% *+"+ & M;'F'#1*+"+ & *0+#% * 2"+ & G & )( &<1;%+"& "2 & M;"& ,%N+ & = L;0& #10+"* ) & +;% & j & 0"& #16,%"0(*2 & (;#;0"& >"66"& H/J47& ab]b3 & ]]`3 &# * 2(02 & ) L'2;="& ="& 4,"0#"% & 42;(%2 & "2 & ="& ) L d0+2 * 2;2 & +;% & )( & :1;9"%0(0#"& =L1%:(0*+(2 *10+ &,% *9'"+ & "2 & ,;F) *M;"3 & abblI . & 8" & J10+"* ) & =; & +2(2;2 & ="& )( & >"66"& +;::N%"& ="+ & 6"+;%"+ &#1%%"#2% *#"+ & 2" ) )"+ & M;"& )( & >1%6(2*10& "2 & ="+ & 6"+;%"+ & )': *+ )(2 *9"+ & (> *0 & = L(22" *0=%"& )( &,(% * 2' . & & &

8( & %",%'+"02(2 *10& ,(% *2( *%" & ="+ & >"66"+& =(0+& )" & =16(*0"& '0"%:'2 *M;"& "2 & ="+ &2%(0+,1%2+ &"2 &="& )( & %"#$"%#$"& +;% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ &"+2 & (;++ * & "++"02 *" ) )" &"2 &=1*2 & e2%" & >"%6"6"02& "0#1;%(:'"& ,(% & )" & :1;9"%0"6"02& M;'F'#1*+ & ,;*+M;"& )"+ & >"66"+&+102 & "0#1%"& +1;+D%",%'+"02'"+ & =(0+& #"+ & +"#2";%+ & H/J47& ab]bI . & -"& , );+ 3 & )"+ & +(91*%+ &,% *9 * )': *'+ & ="+ & >"66"+& (;21#$210"+& +;% & )"+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+&"2 & )";%+ & *6,(#2+ &+;% & )"+ & '#1+O+2N6"+& "2 & )"+ & "+,N#"+ & =1*9"02 & e2%" & *02':%'+ & G & #"22" & %"#$"%#$"& H-1t+)"O &"2 & ( ) . & ab]bI . & ?(% & "E"6,)"3 & =(0+ & )";%+ & 2[#$"+ & ="& ,%',(%(2 *10& ="+ & ( ) *6"02+ 3 & #;"* ) )"22" &="+ & ,"2 * 2+ & > %; *2+ & "2 & ="& 2%(0+>1%6(2*10& ="+ & >1;%%;%"+ & ="& ,$1M;"+& "0& 9e2"6"02+ 3 & )"+ &

Page 42: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 2

>"66"+& d0;*2+ & ,1++N="02 & ="+ & #100(*++(0#"+ & +;% & ) L"09*%100"6"02& M;* & 9 *"00"02 &#16,)'2"% & )"+ &#100(*++(0#"+ &='2"0;"+&,(% & )"+ &$166"+& d0;*2+ & H !" !# $ 3 &]`jD]`lI . &

"#6#( * # % ! 8 # ! * A * ) ;$# !

U0> *0 3 & ) L1,,1%2;0*2' & ="& +" & ,"0#$"% & +;% & )( & = *6"0+*10& :"0%"& ="& )( & );22" & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "+2 & (;++ * & ;0"& 1,,1%2;0*2' & ="& 2%(0+>1%6"%& )"+ & %" )(2 *10+ & ="&,1;91*% & "02%" & )"+ & $166"+& "2 & )"+ & >"66"+& "2 & "02%" & )"+ & % *#$"+ & "2 & )"+ & ,(;9%"+ & H(;& 0 *9"(;&0(2 *10() & (;++ * & F *"0& M;L(;& 0 *9"(;& *02"%0(2 *10()I 3 & =" & +" & M;"+2 *100"% & +;% & )"+ & 9'% * 2(F)"+ &#(;+"+ & ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+ & "2 & ="& %","0+"% & 012%" & %" )(2 *10& (9"# & ) L'0"%: *"& "2 &(9"# & ) L"09*%100"6"02. & &

"#&3$$,(0,)'3(* !• !")(0#"% & "2 & ' )(%: *% & )" & :%1;,"& =L *02"%9"0(02"+ & "2 & *02"%9"0(02+ & *02'%"++'+ & ,(% & )( &

,%1F)'6(2*M;"&(> *0 &="&,"0+"% & )"+ &+2%(2':*"+ &= L'=;#(2 *10&"2 &= L(#2 *10o &

• -%"++"% & ="+ & #(6,(:0"+& = L'=;#(2 *10C>1%6(2*10+ & +,'#* > *M;"+ & ,1;% & )"+ & :%1;,"+&'#1)1:*+2"+ 3 & )"+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+3 & )"+ & #10+"* )+ & 6;0*# *,(;E& )"+ & B!J3 &#166;0(;2'+ &6'2%1,1) * 2( *0"+ &"2 & )( &=',;2(2 *10&,%19*0# *( )" o &

• J%'"% & ="+ & ( ) ) *(0#"+ & "02%" & )"+ & :%1;,"+& ="& >"66"+3 & )"+ & :%1;,"+&"09*%100"6"02(;E& "2 & )"+ & ,";,)"+ & (;21#$210"+& =(0+& )( & );22" & M;'F'#1*+" & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+lo &

• Y;):(% *+"% & )" &= *+#1;%+ &+# *"02 * > *M;"&M;(02 &(;E&(+,"#2+ &="& )( & %'=;#2 *10&="+ &5U4&"2 &="& ) L(=(,2(2 *10& (;E& #$(0:"6"02+ & # ) *6(2 *M;"+& "2 & )" & %(22(#$"% & (;& M;12 *= *"0& ="+ &A;'F'#1*+"+ &"2 &A;'F'#1*+ o &

• J%'"% & ;0& :;*="& =L *02':%(2 *10& =;& :"0%"& =(0+& )"+ & ='# *+ *10+ & %" )(2 *9"+ & (;E&#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+&+,'#* > *M;"+ &(;E&#10=*2 *10+ &01%=*M;"+&"2 &=;&A;'F"#o &

• U0#1;%(:"% & )( & ,(%2 *# *,(2 *10& ="+ & >"66"+& =(0+& )( & ,% *+" & =" & ='#*+ *10+ & G & 21;+ & )"+ &0 *9"(;E& H6;0*# *,() 3 & %': *10() 3 & ,%19*0# *( ) 3 & >'='%() & "2 & =(0+ & )"+ & =')':(2 *10+ & (;E&0':1#*(2 *10+ & *02"%0(2 *10()"+I 3 &012(66"02&"0& )";% &1>>%(02 &;0&+1;2 *"0o &

7 >+0''2("F"@2"<2-&2"*+0((,0-@2"0"*D3F"D1D"(0-@D"'$%&"(2)"2-32%T"2-8,&$--2/2-10%T""0%"[%DE2@V"c"J$-),*D&0-1"(0"),1%01,$-"'&D@0,&2"*2"(+2-)2/E(2"*2)"D@$)Q)1B/2)"*2"(0"'(0-B12"21"(0"/,)B&2"@&,0-12";%,"'$%))2"*0-)"%-"0))2/E(0<2"*+,-3%)1,@2)7",(".0%1")+%-,&"'$%&"0<,&:"50,)$-)"(2"'0&,";%2"-$)".$&@2)"&D%-,2)"<0<-2&$-1"2-"'$&1D2"21"2-"'&$.$-*2%&"21";%+2-)2/E(2"-$%)"-$%)"(,ED&2&$-)"*%"@0',10("21"*%"'01&,0&@01:"JA$,),))$-)"*+,-1D<&2&"-$)"<&,((2)"*+0-0(Q)2"'(%1d1";%2"*2"-$%)"*,8,)2&"'0&")2@12%&)"21"'0&")'D@,0(,1D):"e)$-)"'&$'$)2&"21"@$-)1&%,&2"*2"-$%82((2)"E0)2)"*+0..,-,1D)";%,"-$%)",-)',&2-1:"f"H#&%*+g$//2"21"?20%(,2%7"=GGXL:"

Page 43: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 3

• 42 *6;)"% & )( &%"#$"%#$"&>'6*0*+2" &+;% & ) L *02':%(2 *10&=;&:"0%"&=(0+& )"+ &#$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ &"0&,%161;9(02 &012(66"02& )"+ &, *+2"+ &="&%"#$"%#$"&# * D$(;2 &6"02*100'"+o & &

• U0#1;%(:"% & )"+ & #$"%#$";%"+ & "2 & #$"%#$";%+ & =(0+ & )" & =16(*0"& ="+ & #$(0:"6"02+ &# ) *6(2 *M;"+ &G & *02':%"% & )( &= *6"0+*10&="&:"0%"&=(0+ & )";%+ &%"#$"%#$"+o &

• 7(*%" &="+ &,%"++ *10+ &,1;% &M;"& )( &>-! ,5.' , 2+ ,#)/+2-44+1+0&,#.'("2+ & +1 *2 &61=*> *'" &(> *0 &= LO & *0# );%" &+,'#* > *M;"6"02& ) L':() * 2' &"02%" & )"+ & >"66"+&"2 & )"+ &$166"+. &

"

!

Page 44: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 4

".1.%#(&#* !<#)&+*/%#&) ( '#&%+#0&'"#0*=(

G-0/+0& !-0,4-.' , 2 3) 2 !1!0(& !-0,#+,&-.&+5 , 2+5 , A-'1+5,#+,# !56' !1!0(& !-05 ,L , 2 3)*('#,#+5 ,A+11+5 3 &]_ &='#"6F%"&]^l^3 &"0& ) *:0"& X &Ñ$22,XCCttt.;0.1%:Ct16"0t(2#$C=(tC#"=(tC#"=(t.$26Ö&

G-0/+0& !-0,6(#'+ ,#+5 ,M(& !-05 ,N0!+5 ,5.' , 2+5 ,67(0*+1+0&5 ,6 2 !1(& !8.+5 3 &! *1 &="&V(0"*%13 &K; *0 &]^^a3 &"0& ) *:0"& X &Ñ &$22,XCC;0>## . *02C%"+1;%#"C=1#+C#109v,C#109>% .,=> &Ö &

!(,,1%2 &="& )( &cN&J10>'%"0#"&610=*( )" &+;% & )"+ & >"66"+&H<"* K *0:3 &cD]`&+",2"6F%"&]^^`I 3 &/CJZR7.]llCabC!"9.]3 &"0 & ) *:0"& X &Ñ$22,XCCttt.;0.1%:Ct16"0t(2#$C#10>"%CF"* K *0:C%",1%2+C &Ö &

/#2 *10&a]3 &?R@U3 &-1#. &R@&/CJZR7.]`]CajC!"9.]3 & H]^^aI 3 &U0 & ) *:0"& X &$22,XCCttt.;0.1%:C>%"0#$C:(C+,"#*( )C+ *=+C(:"0=(a]C&

>"') (%& (7", '& '9*%) (5"*$%+#%/%#&0,%) (

>-! ,5.' , 2+ ,#)/+2-44+1+0&,#.'("2+ 3 &8!A3 &# &-D_.].] &

4"#%'2(% *(2 &G & )( &J10=*2 *10&7'6*0*0"3 &H2(0,# 3(6& !-0,+0,1(&!I'+ ,# 3(0(2O5+ ,# ! A A)'+06!)+ ,5+ 2-0, 2+5 ,5+K+5 ,9:;;=9:;J 3 &B*0*+2N%" &="& )( &J;)2;%"3 &J166;0*#(2 *10&"2 &J10=*2 *10&7'6*0*0"3 &ab]]&H?//-4I. & &

4"#%'2(% *(2 &G & )( &J10=*2 *10&7'6*0*0"3 &H-.' ,8.+, 2 3)*(2 ! &) ,#+ ,#'- !& ,#+/!+00+,.0+,)*(2 ! &) ,#+ , A( !& P &H-2 ! & !8.+,*-./+'0+1+0&(2+ ,4-.' , 2 3)*(2 ! &) ,+0&'+ , 2+5 , A+11+5,+& , 2+5 ,7-11+5,9:;;=9:;J 3 &B*0*+2N%" &="& )( &J;)2;%"3 &J166;0*#(2 *10&"2 &J10=*2 *10&7'6*0*0"3 &abbl. &

4"#%'2(% *(2 &G & )( &J10=*2 *10&7'6*0*0"3 &H-.' ,8.+, 2 3)*(2 ! &) ,#+ ,#'- !& ,#+/ !+00+,.0+,)*(2 ! &) ,#+ , A( !& P &H2(0,# 3(6& !-0,*-./+'0+1+0&(2 ,4-.' , 2 3)*(2 ! &) ,+0&'+ , 2+5 , A+11+5,+& , 2+5 ,7-11+5,9:;;=9:;J 3 &B*0*+2N%" &="& )( &J;)2;%"3 &J166;0*#(2 *10&"2 &J10=*2 *10&7'6*0*0"3 &ab]]. &

J10+"* ) &=; &+2(2;2 &="& )( & >"66"3&/9*+ 3 & Q0&)*'+' , 2+5 , A+11+5,(.K,*'(0#5,67-!K ,)6-0-1!8.+5R ,5-6 !(.K,+& ,+0/!'-00+1+0&(.K, P ,>+5 ,#)A !5 ,#.,9I,4 2(0,# 3(6& !-0,#+, 2( ,H-2 ! & !8.+,*-./+'0+1+0&(2+ ,4-.' , 2 3)*(2 ! &) ,+0&'+ , 2+5 , A+11+5,+& , 2+5 ,7-11+5 3 &ab]]&H/J47&ab]]I . &

51;9"%0"6"02&=;&A;'F"#3 &N0,4'-@+& ,#+ ,5-6 !)&) ,4-.' , 2+ ,S.)"+6, P ,%&'(&)*!+ ,*-./+'0+1+0&(2+ ,#+ ,#)/+2-44+1+0&,#.'("2+ ,9::T=9:;< 3 &abbl. &

51;9"%0"6"02&=;&A;'F"#3 &>+,S.)"+6,+& , 2+5 ,67(0*+1+0&5 ,6 2 !1(& !8.+5 , P ,N0,#)A ! ,4-.' ,2 3(/+0!' ,U ,H 2(0,# 3(6& !-0,9::V=9:;9R ,abb_ $ ,

Page 45: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 5

51;9"%0"6"02&=;&A;'F"#3 &>+,S.)"+6,+0,(6& !-0,/+'& ,9:9:, P ,H 2(0,# 3(6& !-0,9:;<=9:9:,5.' , 2+5 ,67(0*+1+0&5 ,6 2 !1(&!8.+5 3 &ab]a&H?/JJ&ababI . &

51;9"%0"6"02&=;&A;'F"#3 &>+,S.)"+6,+0,(6& !-0,/+'& ,9:9:, P ,%&'(&)*!+ ,*-./+'0+1+0&(2+ ,# 3(#(4&(& !-0,(.K,67(0*+1+0&5 ,6 2 !1(&!8.+5 ,9:;<=9:9: 3 &ab]a&H45/JJI. & &

B*0*+2N%" &="+ &!"++1;%#"+ &0(2;%") )"+ &"2 &="& )( &7(;0"3 &> 3)0+'*!+ ,4-.' ,6-05&'. !'+ , 2+ ,S.)"+6,#+,#+1(!0 , P ,>( ,5&'(&)*!+ ,)0+'*)& !8.+,#.,S.)"+6,9::V=9:;J 3 &abbj. &

?+&'3 ,%) (%& (+077"+&) (

/)F"%3&512")*0=3&(0=&x"66(2*3&B*0;.&ab]].&Ü5"0="%&?"%+,"#2*9"+X&-"F;0v*0:&J)*6(2"&?1)*#O&BO2$+á.&J16610t"()2$&B*0*+2"%+.&

/)+2103&B.&ab]].&Ü5"0="%&(0=&J)*6(2"&J$(0:"&*0&/;+2%()*(.á&W-.'0(2,-A,%-6!-2-*O&cl&H]IX&`kÉlb.&

<"(;6*"%3&B.J.3&(0=&V.-.&71%=.&ab]b.&Ü711=&d0+"#;%*2O&/610:&d0;*2&|16"0&UE(#"%F(2"=&FO&41#*1"#1016*#&42%"++"+&(0=&J)*6(2"&J$(0:".á&G(0(#!(0,W-.'0(2,-A,H."2!6,X+(2&7&]b]&HkIX&]^jÉab].&

J(%)++10DP(0O(6(3&/00*v(3&U0:+2%�63&!"F"#v(3&(0=&P1v3&!*E2.&abb`.&Üd0=*%"#2&(0=&-*%"#2&U0"%:O&!"M;*%"6"02+&1>&J*2O&x1;+"$1)=+&*0&4t"="0X&Z,2*10+&>1%&!"=;#2*103&8"++10+&>%16&B1=")*0:.á&W-.'0(2,-A,Q0#.5&'!(2,Y6-2-*O&^&H]DaIX&aa]Éak`.&

J(%)++10DP(0O(6(3&/00*v(3&(0=&510Q()"Q3&/)"K(0=%1&-.&abb^.&Ü?12"02*()&J102%*F;2*10+&1>&711=&J10+;6,2*10&?(22"%0+&21&J)*6(2"&J$(0:".á&F1+'!6(0,W-.'0(2,-A,G2!0!6(2,M.&'!&!-0&_^X&]lbc4É]lb^4.&

J(%)++10DP(0O(6(3&/00*v(3&(0=&8*0='03&/00(D8*+(.&]^^^.&Üu%(9")&?(22"%0+&(0=&U09*%106"02()&U>>"#2+&R1t&(0=&*0&2$"&7;2;%"X&d6,)*#(2*10+&1>&-*>>"%"0#"+&*0&U0"%:O&J10+;6,2*10&/610:&41#*1D"#1016*#&5%1;,+.á&Y6-2-*!6(2,Y6-0-1!65&kbX&cb`Éc]l.&

J$()*>1;%3&R.V.&ab]b.&Ü/&7"6*0*+2&?"%+,"#2*9"&10&J(%F10&u(E"+.á&G(0(#!(0,W-.'0(2,-A,Z-1+0,(0#,&7+,>([&aa&H]IX&]j^Éa]a.&

J)(0#O3&V1O3&(0=&!�$%3&@)%*v".&abbk.&Ü5"0="%&(0=&U0"%:OX&d+&u$"%"&(&R1%2$"%0&?"%+,"#2*9"}á&Y0+'*O,A-',%.5&(!0("2+,B+/+2-41+0&&l&HkIX&]jÉ.&

J10+"*)&="+&B102%'()(*+"+.&abb^.&Ü?1;%&A;L"))"+&U6F(%M;"02Å&/9*+&-;&J10+"*)&-"+&B102%'()(*+"+&4;%&8L(##"++*F*)*2'&-;&u%(0+,1%2&J1))"#2*>&U2&410&d6,(#2&4;%&8(&A;()*2'&-"&Y*"&-"+&B102%'()(*+"+á.&B102%'().&

-(0v")6(03&d.&abba.&ÜJ)*6(2"&J$(0:"X&8"(%0*0:&>%16&5"0="%&/0()O+*+&(0=&|16"0L+&UE,"%*"0#"+&1>&Z%:(0*+*0:&>1%&4;+2(*0(F)"&-"9")1,6"02.á&\+0#+',(0#,B+/+2-41+0&&]b&HaIX&a]Éa^.&

-1t+)"O3&B(%2$(3&4$(%*&5"(%$"(%=3&R11%&V1$0+103&(0=&V1#")O0&d0v+"22"%.&ab]b.&Ü4$1;)=&|"&u;%0&2$"&u"02}&d0;*2&|16"0&(0=&J)*6(2"&J$(0:".á&]&.#+5^Q0.!&^%&.#!+5&kc&H]IX&]`]É]j`.&

-%;#v6(03&/0:")(3&(0=&V(#v+103&u*6.&abb^.&Üu$"&J(%F10&7112,%*02&1>&@P&x1;+"$1)=+&]^^bDabbcX&/&41#*1D"#1016*#())O&-*+(::%":(2"=3&A;(+*D6;)2*D%":*10()&d0,;2D1;2,;=&B1=").á&Y6-2-*!6(2,

Page 46: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 6

Y6-0-1!65&j_X&abjjÉabll.&

-;0#(03&P%*+2O.&abb_.&Ü@0&-1++*"%&J$(;=X&8(&4(02'&-"+&7"66"+&U2&8"+&J$(0:"6"02+&J)*6(2*M;"+.á&>+,C)5+(..&$22,XCCttt.#t$0.#(C01="Ck^_c^.&

Ud5U.&ab]a.&Ü!"9*"t&1>&2$"&d6,)"6"02(2*10&*0&2$"&U@&1>&(%"(&P&1>&2$"&<"*K*0:&?)(2>1%6&>1%&/#2*10X&|16"0&(0=&2$"&U09*%106"02o&5"0="%&UM;()*2O&(0=&J)*6(2"&J$(0:"á.&8;E"6F1;%:X&U;%1,"(0&d0+2*2;2"&>1%&5"0="%&UM;()*2O.&

UOQ(:;*%%"3&V*6"0(.&abb_.&Ü8"+&J$(0:"6"02+&J)*6(2*M;"+&U2&8"&J(0(=(X&@0"&Z##(+*10&d0"E,)1*2'"&?1;%&7(*%"&/9(0#"%&8L':()*2'&-"+&4"E"+}á&C)5+(.,G(0(#!+0,H-.',>(,%(0&),B+5,_+11+5.&ttt.%#+>.#(C>%C,%*02C>%C01="Ck^cbb.&

5%1;,"&=L"E,"%2+&*02"%:1;9"%0"6"02()&+;%&)L'91);2*10&=;&#)*6(2.&abb_.&ÜJ$(0:"6"02+&J)*6(2*M;"+&abblX&!(,,1%2&-"&4O02$N+"á.&5"0N9"3&4;*++".&

x"66(2*3&B*0;.&abb_.&Ü5"0="%&?"%+,"#2*9"+&10&J)*6(2"&J$(0:".&<(#v:%1;0=&?(,"%&21&2$"&d02"%(#2*9"&UE,"%2&?(0")&(2&2$"&@R&J166*++*10&10&2$"&42(2;+&1>&|16"0.á&N0!&+#,M(&!-05$,G-11!55!-0,-0,&7+,%&(&.5,-A,Z-1+0R&`a0=&+"++*103&R"t&à1%v3&a`&7"F%;(%O&abb_.&

V1$0++10D8(2$(63&5.&abbl.&Ü/&42;=O&10&5"0="%&UM;()*2O&(+&(&?%"%"M;*+*2"&>1%&4;+2(*0(F)"&-"9")1,6"02á.&!",1%2&21&2$"&U09*%106"02&/=9*+1%O&J1;0#*).&

B(#5%":1%3&4$"%*)O0.&ab]b.&ÜÇ5"0="%&(0=&J)*6(2"&J$(0:"LX&7%16&d6,(#2+&21&-*+#1;%+"+.á&W-.'0(2,-A,&7+,Q0#!(0,?6+(0,C+*!-0&j&HaIX&aakÉak_.&

B#J%*:$23&/(%10&B.&ab]b.&Üu$"&U>>"#2+&1>&5"0="%&10&J)*6(2"&J$(0:"&P01t)"=:"&(0=&J10#"%0&*0&2$"&/6"%*#(0&?;F)*#.á&H-4.2,Y0/!'-0&kaX&jjÉ_l.&

R";6(O"%3&U%*#3&(0=&u$16(+&?)~6,"%.&abbl.&Üu$"&5"0="%"=&R(2;%"&1>&R(2;%()&-*+(+2"%+X&u$"&d6,(#2&1>&J(2(+2%1,$*#&U9"02+&10&2$"&5"0="%&5(,&*0&8*>"&UE,"#2(0#O3&]^_]Dabba.á&F00(25,-A,&7+,F55-6!(&!-0,-A,F1+'!6(0,\+-*'(47+'5&^l&HkIX&``]É`jj.&

?*%(%=3&?.&"2&().&abb`.&Ü4;66(%O&1>&2$"&B1%2()*2O&d6,(#2&/++"++6"02&1>&2$"&abbk&x"(2t(9"&*0&7%(0#".á&Y.'-5.'/+!22(06+&]b&HlI.&$22,XCCttt.";%1+;%9"*))(0#".1%:CY*"t/%2*#)".(+,E}/%2*#)"d=â``c.&

?%;=\x166"3&B(;="&"2&U)+(&<"(;)*";.&abb_.&äY"%+&="+&'#1>'6*0*+6"+&M;'F'#1*+Å&B(*+y&#166"02}ä&>(,G-.'5+,L,C+2(!5=_+11+5&kjDklX&c.&

!Ä2O3&J.3&(0=&J(%)++10DP(0O(6(3&/.&ab]b.&ÜU0"%:O&J10+;6,2*10&FO&5"0="%&*0&416"&U;%1,"(0&J1;02%*"+.á&Y0+'*O,H-2!6O&k_X&jcjÉjc^.&

4"#%'2(%*(2&G&)(&#10=*2*10&>'6*0*0".&abbl.&Ü8L(0()O+"&-*>>'%"0#*'"&4")10&8"+&4"E"+&-(0+&8"+&?%(2*M;"+&51;9"%0"6"02()"+&U2&-(0+&J"))"+&-"+&d0+2(0#"+&81#()"+&U2&!':*10()"+X&@0&/21;2&-(0+&8(&?%*+"&-"&-'#*+*10+&D&5;*="&4O02$N+".á&J16*2'&d02"%6*0*+2'%*")&-"&)L/-43&!'+"(;&-"+&!"+,10+(F)"+&U0&B(2*N%"&-L':()*2'&U02%"&8"+&7"66"+&U2&8"+&x166"+3&5%1;,"&7"66"+3&?1)*2*M;"&U2&-'61#%(2*"&H57?-I3&T#1)"&R(2*10()"&-L(=6*0*+2%(2*10&?;F)*M;"&HUR/?I&U2&-*%"#2*10&-"+&4"%9*#"+&/;E&Z%:(0*+(2*10+.&A;'F"#X&B*0*+2N%"&="&)(&J;)2;%"3&="+&J166;0*#(2*10+&"2&="&)(&J10=*2*10&>'6*0*0".&

4$(%,3&V(#M;")*0".&abb`.&Ü?;F)*#&/22*2;="+&u1t(%=&5"1)1:*#()&-*+,1+()&1>&J(%F10&-*1E*="&*0&J(0(=(á.&<;%0(FO3&<JX&4*610&7%(+"%&@0*9"%+*2O.&$22,XCCttt."6%:.+>;.#(C6"=*(C,;F)*#(2*10+CV(#M;")*0"mab4$(%,.,=>.&

Page 47: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 7

4v*00"%3&U66")*0".&ab]a.&Ü5"0%"&"2&#$(0:"6"02&#)*6(2*M;"X&?(01%(6(á.&<!d-5U.&

|1)>3&V1$(00(3&(0=&4;+(00"&J.&B1+"%.&ab]].&Üd0=*9*=;()&@0="%+2(0=*0:+3&?"%#",2*10+3&(0=&U0:(:"6"02&t*2$&J)*6(2"&J$(0:"X&d0+*:$2+&>%16&d0D=",2$&42;=*"+&/#%1++&2$"&|1%)=.á&ZQCY5,G2!1,G7(0*+&aX&`clÉ`j^.&

|16"0L+&U09*%106"02()&R"2t1%v&(0=&2$"&R(2*10()&7"="%(2*10&1>&|16"0L+&d0+2*2;2"+.&abbl.&Ü5"22*0:&*0&2$"&?*#2;%"&ã&(&4;%9"O&1>&|16"0L+&?%*1%*2*"+&>1%&/#2*10&(0=&d091)9"6"02&*0&u(#v)*0:&J)*6(2"&J$(0:"á.&810=10.&

&

"

Page 48: !"#)"//0&'"#(!"!#$ j.&&]

G e n r e e t c h a n g e m e n t s c l i m a t i q u e s 4 8

I--2T2 "! "h "i&$%'2) "21 " ,-*,8 ,*%) "&2-@$-1&D) " "

<6,8B$/"* & F/$14*& G*4/8#*%,6%,H*I &

J%E"/$%%*2*%,& 5%""0,"(#"&HA;'F"#I & Y *%: *0 *" &8(6F"%2D7"%%O &

J%E"/$%%*2*%,& TM;*2"%%" & 5;* ) )(;6"&?)(610=10&

J%E"/$%%*2*%,& !'+"(;&M;'F'#1*+ &="+ &:%1;,"+&'#1)1:*+2"+ &H!A5UI &

B(;="&?%;=L$166"&

J%E"/$%%*2*%,& !'+"(;&="+ & >"66"+&"0&"09*%100"6"02 &

8 *+" &?(%"02 & &&

J%E"/$%%*2*%,& /A8?/& T )1 S+" &4(91*" &

K*22*#& />"(+ & J') *0"&-;9() & &8;#"&<'%(%=&

K*22*#& 77A& /)"E(&J10%(=* & &

K*22*#& 7"66"+&"0&,(%#1;%+ &*0019(2";% &

-*(0"&B1021;% & &

K*22*#& 7'='%(2 *10&="+ &(:% *#; )2% *#"+ &=;&A;'F"#&

!(O610="&? )(610=10& &

K*22*#& J10+"* ) &="+ &B102%'()( *+"+ & 5;O)( *0"&?1*% *"% & &

78+"C*1/#L*# & 4"#%'2(% *(2 &G & )( &J10=*2 *10&7'6*0*0"&

B(%#") )" &5"0=%"(;3 &%"+,10+(F)" &="& ) L/-4&

78+"C*1/#L*# & T); &6;0*# *,( ) &

?%'>"2 &

/%2$;% &7(;2";E&

78+"C*1/#L*# & T);"&6;0*# *,( )" & !(O610="&? )(610=10&

78+"C*1/#L*# & T);"&6;0*# *,( )" & -16*0*M;"&Z;") )"2 &

&