Slides for GGR 314,Global Warming

Chapter 6: Impacts on Forests

Course taught by

Danny HarveyDepartment of Geography

University of Toronto

Exhibit 6-1: Spatial pattern of the change in NPP over the period 2000-2009 based on the linear trend of satellite-based estimates.

Source: Zhao and Running (2010, Science, Vol. 329, 940-943)

Exhibit 6-2: Variation in overall NPP in the northern and southern hemispheres over the period 2000-2009 as inferred from satellite data.

Source: Zhao and Running (2010, Science, Vol. 329, 940-943)

Recall: Exhibit 1-65: Increasingly severe droughts in the Amazon (there was another drought in 2010 – likely worse than the 2005 drought)

Exhibit 6-3: Locations in the world with documented forest mortality due to heat and/or drought, mostly during the last two decades.

Source: Allen et al. (2010, For. Ecol. Management, Vol 259, 660-684)

Exhibit 6-4: Locations in Africa with documented forest mortality due to heat and/or drought, mostly during the last two decades.

Source: Allen et al. (2010, For. Ecol.Management, Vol 259,660-684)

Exhibit 6-5: Locations in Asia with documented forest mortality due to heat and/or drought, mostly during the last two decades.

Source: Allen et al. (2010, For. Ecol. Management, Vol 259, 660-684)

Exhibit 6-6: Locations in Australia with documented forest mortality due to heat and/or drought, mostly during the last two decades.

Source: Allen et al. (2010, For. Ecol. Management, Vol 259, 660-684)

Exhibit 6-7: Locations in Europe with documented forest mortality due to heat and/or drought, mostly during the last two decades.

Source: Allen et al. (2010, For. Ecol. Management, Vol 259, 660-684)

Exhibit 6-8: Locations in North America with documented forest mortality due to heat and/or drought, mostly during the last two decades.

Source: Allen et al. (2010,For. Ecol. Management,Vol 259, 660-684)

Exhibit 6-9: Locations in South America with documented forest mortality due to heat and/or drought, mostly during the last two decades.

Source: Allen et al. (2010, For. Ecol. Management, Vol 259, 660-684)

Recall: Exhibit 1-64a: Average area of North American boreal forest burning per year

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1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

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Lightning-ignited fires

Human-ignited firest

Source of data: Kasischke and Turetsky (2006, Geophys. Res. Lett.)

Exhibit 1-64b: Frequency of large (> 400 hectares) forest fires in the US

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1970s 1980s 1990s 2000-2003

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Source of data: Westerling et al (2006, Science, 313, 940-943

Exhibit 1-64c: Forest fires in Russia

Source: Soja et al (2007, Glob. Planet. Change, 56, 274-296)

Exhibit 6-10: Major ecoregions in Canada today and the distribution that would be in equilibrium with one business-as-usual projection of climate in 2050.

Exhibit 6-11: Biosphere model projections of fate of the Amazon rainforest by 2090-2100 under the A2 GHG emission scenario. Shown is the extent of

agreement using the changes in climate simulated by 15 different AOGCMs as input to a the LPJ dynamic vegetation model.

Source: Salazar et al. (2007, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, L09708)

Exhibit 6-12: Left, distribution of grid cells with different amounts of forest cover in 2050 as simulated by the Hadley Centre AOGCM coupled to the LPJ DGVM for the A2 emission scenario. Right: Fractional forest

cover in grid cells if the climate is held at its state in 2050 and the rainforest is allowed to eventually fully respond to the change in climate.

Source: Jones et al. (2009, Nature Geoscience, Vol 2., 484-487)

Exhibit 6-13a: Comparison of the actual Amazonian forest cover (“realized”) at various times in the future in a global warming simulation,

and the fractional cover that would eventually remain (“committed”) if the warming at the time in question were to persist.

Source: Jones et al. (2009, Nature Geoscience, Vol 2., 484-487)

Exhibit 6-13b: Same data as shown in Exhibit 6-13a, but in terms of realized and committed dieback as a function of the realized temperature change.

Source: Jones et al. (2009, Nature Geoscience, Vol 2., 484-487)

This and remaining slide: Photos taken in 2005 in Manu Biosphere Reserve, Peru

Source: Danny Harvey