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SKY Impacts
David LevineRachel Polimeni
Ian Ramage
Sky Evaluation Dissemination Meeting4-5 October, 2011
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Micro-health insurance
Can health insurance improve health and reduce vulnerability of the poor?
(If so, what policies are required for a a financially viable insurance market?)
SKY evaluation
Afd asked us to evaluate SKY expansion
Roll-out to 250 villages in 2008 Targeting a population of over
250,000
Evaluation challenge
Cannot just compare outcomes of the
insured vs. uninsured
Self-selection of low cost
In the United States health insurance often comes with employment, so the insured are healthier than the uninsured
If those who are rich, care about health care, and so forth, buy insurance, insurance can correlate with good health but not cause it
Self-selection of high cost
Above-average interest in insurance may be due to above-average expected health care costs
If those who anticipate needing health care more often buy insurance, insurance can correlate with bad health but not cause it
Need a randomized trial
Sky already randomized!
SKY held village meetings to market the program• “Lucky Draw” Coupon lottery at village
meetings • 20% won a coupon for 5 of first 6
months, others get standard offer of 1 month free
Door-to-door insurance agents followed-up to sign up new members
SKY Membership
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Months since Village Meeting
Per
ce
nt
En
roll
ed
Steep Discount
Regular Price
Data Collection
Baseline survey 2-9 months after village meetings• 2500 winners of the deep discount• Equal # of those offered regular price
Follow-up survey one year later
Methods
Instrument is having a deep discount (not regular price)
We estimate the effect of health insurance among those induced to buy by the deep discount • “local average treatment effect”
SKY Membership
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Months since Village Meeting
Per
ce
nt
En
roll
ed
Steep Discount
Regular Price
Theory
Overlapping stories of how health insurance can help: • Seek more and higher quality
health care When serious problems arise Preventative & other care
• => better health outcomes
• Lower health care costs => less debt and asset sales
Caution: Out study is too small for some important outcomes
Theory
Overlapping stories of how health insurance can help: • Seek more and higher quality
health care When serious problems arise Preventative & other care
• => better health outcomes
• Lower health care costs => less debt and asset sales
Caution: Out study is too small for some important outcomes
Theory: Health care when seriously injured or ill
Insurance reduces: • Forego care due to no money• Delay seeking care• Visit ineffective informal providers
=> Higher rate of using qualified providers & Promptly use qualified providers
=>Over time, health improves • But we have very low power for health impacts
Results on health care after serious incident
Sample = serious incident, which we define as led to• death or • disability of a week or more
No longer purely experimental variation
Similar rates of regular vs. discounted price offers
Hypotheses on care for serious
Insurance reduces: • Forego care • Delay seeking care• Visit ineffective informal providers
=> Higher rate of using qualified providers & Promptly use qualified providers
=>Over time, health improves
Forego care
After serious shock (> 6 days disabled or death)
Did not seek treatment or stopped treating due to costs • Controls 5.2%• SKY members 3.2 percentage points
lower (but n.s.)
Hypotheses on care for serious
Insurance reduces: • Forego all care • Delay seeking care• Using informal providers
=> Higher rate of using qualified providers & Promptly use qualified providers
=>Over time, health improves
Delay seeking care
%Treated 1st day = 60% of controls• 14 p.p.* lower among SKY• Longer delay for insured shows up all
along the distribution Largely due to less use of drug-sellers %“hospital” (including private clinics
with a bed) 1st day = • 51% of controls • -0.7 p.p. (n.s.) SKY
Hypotheses on care for serious
Insurance reduces: • Forego all care • Delay seeking care• Using informal providers
=> Higher rate of using qualified providers & Promptly use qualified providers
=>Over time, health improves
Choose formal, not informal, care (table 4)
First treatment was Health center: 14% among controls
& +18 p.p.** SKY Drug seller = 14% among controls
• & 8 p.p. ** lower among SKY (Still almost half treat first at private
“doctor”)
Theory of SKY insurance
• Seek more and higher quality health careWhen serious problems arisePreventative & other care
• => better health outcomes
• Lower health care costs
Birth-related outcomes (table 5)
At least one antenatal care • 92% of controls, +4 p.p. (n.s.) SKY
At least one tetanus shot = .93 + .14 SKY (P < .10) Birth attended by public facility = .59 + .21 SKY (n.s.)
Preventive and other care (A3)
No effect on • Any visit to public doctor in last 3
months (A surprising result)
• Immunizations (low precision) (Already free)
• Use of modern contraceptives
Theory of SKY insurance
• Seek more and higher quality health careWhen serious problems arisePreventative & other care
• => better health outcomes• Lower health care costs
No detectable change in health
Same death rate, 0.7% Almost identical rate of disabled a
week or more No detectable improvement in
children’s growth• Height for age z-score = -1.47** controls
& +.31 SKY (n.s.)
Theory of SKY insurance
• Seek more and higher quality health careWhen serious problems arisePreventative & other care
• => better health outcomes• Lower health care costs
Theory: Lower health care costs
Insurance reduces costly private care & and pays public-sector co-pays Þ Lower out-of-pocket costs after serious
health problemsÞ Health care does not require new debt or
selling assets such as landÞ Accumulate physical and human capital
• But low power for capital accumulation after only one year
Hypotheses: Health care costs
Insurance reduces costly private care
& and pays public-sector co-pays Þ Lower out-of-pocket costs after serious
health problemsÞ Health care does not require new debt or
selling assets such as landÞ Lower precautionary savings
Þ freeing up resources for consumption & productive investment
Þ Accumulate physical and human capital
Reduces costly private care
Household spent $5 or more for private care for at least one incident = 61% of controls
-12 p.p. for SKY
Hypotheses: Health care costs
Insurance reduces costly private care & and pays public-sector copays Þ Lower out-of-pocket costs after serious
health problemsÞ Health care does not require new debt or
selling assets such as landÞ Lower precautionary savings
Þ freeing up resources for consumption & productive investment
Þ Accumulate physical and human capital
Hypotheses: Health care costs
Insurance reduces costly private care & and pays public-sector copays =>Lower out-of-pocket costs after
serious health problemsÞ Health care does not require new debt or
selling assets such as landÞ Lower precautionary savings Þ Accumulate physical and human capital
Incident costs
Costs per serious incident (compressed, including transport)
= US$104 for controls - $46* SKY Sample = serious incidents
Health care cost per HH
We cumulate cost of care for incidents leading to:• death • disabled a week or more • cost >$100
Captures most lumpy costs important for insurance
SKY provides financial protection
For households Pr(cost of care for all serious or costly
incidents totals > $100) = 39% of controls • -10.9 p.p. of SKY (P = .06)
Hypotheses: Health care costs
Insurance reduces costly private care & and pays public-sector copays Þ Lower out-of-pocket costs after
serious health problemsÞ Health care does not require new
debt or selling assets such as landÞ Lower precautionary savings Þ Accumulate physical and human
capital
Borrowing
Amount borrowed (top-coded): All HH: $195 for controls – $68* SKY• Reduction only among HH with a
serious incident Loans for health = $29 - $22** SKY Several other measures support
Hypotheses: Health care costs
Insurance reduces costly private care & and pays public-sector copays Þ Lower out-of-pocket costs after
serious health problemsÞ Health care does not require new
debt or selling assets such as land
Þ Lower precautionary savings Þ Accumulate physical and human
capital
Reduces selling land
Sell asset = 22% of controls
8 p.p. fewer (P < .10) SKY
Land sales due to health care costs = .011
-.016 (P = .06) SKY
Hypotheses: Health care costs
Insurance reduces costly private care & and pays public-sector co-pays Þ Lower out-of-pocket costs after serious
health problemsÞ Health care does not require new debt or
selling assets such as landÞ Over time, accumulate physical
and human capital
No detectable change in physical capital (low precision)
Theory Liquid assets
• weaker precautionary motive reduces • lack of health care outflows and eventual higher
income from assets might increase Productive assets
• Lower precautionary savings + no health care shocks should increase
No detectable difference in assets Cash savings Gold Land
Summary
Health care when seriously injured or ill
Preventive health care Health care costs
Health care when seriously injured or ill
SKY insurance reduces: • Foregoing all care Probably • Delaying seeking care No• Visiting informal providers Yes
Higher rate of public providers Yes Promptly get health care from qualified
providers unclear=>Over time, health improves No evidence
(but low power)
Other health care
SKY increases• Use public facilities for minor No• Preventative care No evidence (but
low power)
Health care costs
SKY reduces costly private care maybe & increases SKY pays for copays Yes=>Lower out-of-pocket costs after serious
health problems yesÞ Health care does not require new debt YesÞ Health care does not lead to selling assets
such as land ProbablyÞ Over time, accumulate physical and
human capital No evidence
Cautions
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence• So “not significant” (n.s.) results can still
be important
Supplements
Health care in rural Cambodia
Private caregivers good at handing out pills (“polypharmacy”)• Untrained drug sellers• Private “doctors”
Typically modest formal training• Some traditional healers
Public facilities
Three-tiered public sector• Local health centers • Referral hospitals (in English, closer to
“clinics”)• Provincial hospitals
Poor reputation Copays
• Financial and in-kind• Hospital stays have no incremental financial
copay after 6 days
SKY health insurance
Micro-health insurance program in Cambodia.
Run by the NGO GRET since 1998 Funded by the French (AFD) and
others Offers voluntary health insurance in
rural areas Covers 61,000 people (some urban)
SKY
Premium from $0.50 - $1.83 per hh per month, based on household size
Usually chose areas with above-average public health services• e.g., contracted out to Swiss Red Cross
Several means to improve quality • Feedback • Lump sum capitation payments
SKY Insurance Benefits
Free (no copay):• Public health centers
(not neoclassical insurance)• Public district and provincial hospital
with referral• Prescribed drugs (if on list)
Not cover • Chronic conditions • Pregnancy right after meeting
The Setting
Very disadvantaged• Mean education in our sample = 5 years• Infant mortality rate 55/1000 live births
Randomization (Table 2)
Randomization looks good on most measures• Literacy• Age mix• Assets • …
One exception: Enumerator was more likely to rank deep discounts as lowest wealth rank (11% deep discount, 14% full price)
First stage Sky membership (averaging 3 nearby
months) = 0.04** - .004** months since meeting+ 0.34** low price- 0.005** low price * months
R2 = .16
Slightly different 1st stagesOutcomes Endogenous XAnnual or stock measures such as debt
% of last year in SKY
Trust in SKY Ever in SKY
Recall of last 3 months health care
% of last 4 months in SKY
Cost of and care for serious health incidents
Pr(in SKY) for the month of the incident (or adjacent months)
Methods
Standard errors adjust for clustering by village
* and ** for P< .05 and <.01 We lack precision for some impacts
Other Hypotheses
SKY membership will increase• Trust in SKY• Favorable opinion of public facilities
Trust in SKY
SKY is unfamiliar, which reduces trust
If high coupon raises exposure to SKY => H: High coupon leads to a more
favorable view of SKY
Slightly better view of SKY
SKY is trustworthy, will pay, is honest (1-5 scale)
Trust in SKY (average) = 3.4 + 0.3** Ever a SKY member
View of public facilities
SKY selects good and works to improve health centers
If • higher quality most easily
observed when used and • Sky increases public usage
=> H: high coupon leads to more favorable view of public facilities
No improved view of gov. doctors
“Government doctors are extremely thorough and careful.
“You have complete trust in government doctors
“Government doctor's medical skills are not as good as they should be (reverse coded)
Other outcomes
• Trust in SKY Yes, but small• Use of public facilities for minor
concerns No evidence
No convincing difference in school enrollment (Table 7)
Sample = school-aged children Enrolled = 0.82 + 0.07* SKY BUT
• Effect is not found among those with a serious incident, so probably sampling error