sizing up facebook stock post-ipo

WE WILL START AT 11:05

Sizing up a post-IPO Facebook

November 1, 2012

This presentation was prepared by SoundView Technology Group and is being provided for information purposes only. SharesPost expressly disclaims all responsibility for any information contained in the presentation and all such information is the sole product of SoundView Technology Group. This presentation is not intended as a solicitation or offering of securities in any jurisdiction.

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1970’s Building Microcomputers

1980’s

Applied AI, CMU, IBM

1990’s Equity Research, Banking

2000’s

Angel Investing, Entrepreneur

2010’s Building out SoundView

Kris Tuttle

Company Advisory Research & Analysis

IPO Coverage Funding, M&A

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Agenda

• Quick look at FB performance and analysis of the IPO.

• Significant developments post the IPO.

• A range of estimates and price targets on the street.

• Facing up to the lockup expirations.

• Are there patterns that we may see again in FB trading?

• What’s the Intrinsic Valuation of FB?

• Wrap up and Q&A.

© SoundView Technology Group 2012

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LinkedIn LNKD

NetSuite N Yelp YELP

Facebook FB

A Few Charts

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IPO Marketing Questions


How will FB increase ARPU? What kind of M&A path will FB take? - Video: Natural extension of photos. - Tumblr: Micro-blogging fits well. - Mobile Commerce: Huge profit potential. - Social Search: Very high ROIC. - Music: Murky model but natural extension. Wildcard Ideas: - Sports: Yahoo owns it but it could be on FB. - Security: Real identity + ties in to mobile. - Geneology: Too late! Missed ACOM already.

LIFE AFTER SATURATION

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Post-IPO Considerations


[See IPO Marketing Questions] PLUS: - Does FB really care about relationships with institutional investors? - Post-Instagram deals have not offered a strong directional signal from mgmt. - Mobile is the new conundrum for FB in the ARPU area.

Some meaningful datapoints: - Solidified role as the standard: 1. Apple moved FB deeper into their ecosystem in terms of integration. 2. Microsoft has done the same in their recent announcements. 3. Google+ is another swing and a miss for GOOG - There have been some mistakes: Games, Answers - LinkedIn remains the “Facebook for business”

A few considerations on mobile and ARPU: - Larger/better screens devices on phones and tablets will help FB. - Local is a good opportunity for FB when tied to social search.

Long term: Will FB turn out to be a real development platform and ecosystem?

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Brokers Ranges & Targets


Revenues High Low Median

2013 $6.9B $5.6B $6.4B

2014 $9.2B $6.5B $8.1B

2015 $11.9B $7.35B $10.0B

EPS High Low Median

2013 $0.85 $0.45 $0.64

2014 $1.13 $0.50 $0.81

2015 $1.26 $0.54 $1.14

High Low Median

Price Target $41 $16 $29

Rating # Analysts

Buy 14

Outperform 11

Hold 10

Underperform 1

Sell 1

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The Lock Up Expiration


Lots of stock will be coming into the float so investors should be wary of selling pressure in both Q4 and Q1 2013 (for tax reasons.) However - It’s hard to say how much hedging has gone on in both listed options and OTC derivatives. This can lead to surprises. Investors should focus on *both* timing, trading and valuation in the next few months. Institutions will be thinking about 2013.

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FB LNKD N Overlay

LNKD IV = $123

FB IV = $32 Netsuite N

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Conclusions So far FB stock is down sharply from the IPO and overall expectations have declined by approximately 10%. Fundamentals have been pretty good in the last few months and look encouraging. We have seen this type of trading pattern in the IPO market before with stocks like LNKD and N. FB may do something similar. There are no reliable rules around a major lockup expiration. However it wouldn’t be surprising if the shares traded at 50% of our IV or $16/share. Nobody knows what will happen though. Based on our $32 IV the shares are attractive now and would be pretty compelling in the high-teens. Individuals will be thinking about taxes, institutions will be thinking about 2013 performance. That means lots of shares changing hands from November to January.


Closing/Contact Slide

To discuss SoundView Technology Group services, or for any questions, requests or comments please contact me:

[email protected] or call 617-934-1877.

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sizing up facebook stock post-ipo

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