siu vision thailand 2020 aug26 2011
TRANSCRIPT
เปิ�ดขอบฟ้าใหม่�รั�บม่�อเศรัษฐกิ�จอาเซี�ยน 2020
Vision Thailand 2020
Apirak Kosayodhin Asian Knowledge Institute 26 August 2011
1. Current Situation2. ASEAN 20153. Thailand Competitiveness4. Global Mega-trends5. Vision Thailand 2020
Agenda
Current Situation
• Global Situation
• Thailand Political Situation
• New Government
Market Size 2.67 Trillions $
ASEAN Countries in 2015
700 Millions consumers
What awaits Thailand?Comparison to selected countries
Countries with similar profile are up to ~10x wealthier than Thailand
Countries with similar profile are up to ~10x wealthier than Thailand Potential to triple per-capita income?Potential to triple per-capita income?
Sector mix may need to be shapedSector mix may need to be shapedDomestic sectors may grow in
importanceDomestic sectors may grow in
importance
2,592 2,064687
0
2,000
4,000
France Italy South Korea
268
Thailand
194194
Malaysia
Nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD bn)
0
100
200France
Italy
South Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
% of GDP
78 72 58 43 46
4046 44
26202
France
2
Italy
3
South Korea
11
Thailand
10
Malaysia
Agriculture
Industry
Service
0
100
50
Percentage of GDP
35,100 31,360 26,4008,340 14,110
0
20,000
40,000
France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia
$ at PPP
Note: Countries with similar population size and geographic sizeSource: EIU 2008 data
Thailand's major strengths are low cost of living and healthy environment for employment
1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report 2008
2. Healthy environment for employment contains fair compensation level, high employment rate and high labor force number and business friendly regulations
Low
High
High
Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score
Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity
(+101)
Healthy environment
for employment2
(24)
Key strengths Thailand can leverage
Mgmt practice
(8)
Low High
IMD competitive ranking analysis of major strengthsIMD competitive ranking analysis of major strengths
Low inflation and cost of
living(23)
Economic performance
Government efficiency
Business efficiency
Infrastructure
Attitudes and values
(7)
Appropriate consumption
tax rates(22)
Competitiveness - Strengths
Infrastructure and business efficiency identified as major weaknesses of Thailand
1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report 20082. Weakness in low number of care providers
Low
High
High
Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score
Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity
(-101)
Insufficient health
quality2 (-20) Insufficient education
quality(-16)
Low productivity & efficiency
(-21)
Highest priority gap
to address
Finance: bank
efficiency(-4)
Societal framework
(-9)
Basic infrastructu
re(-2)
Tech – low penetration of internet
users(-16)
Low High
Low GDP per capita
(-21)
Public finance
(-2)Business legislation
(-2)
Low direct investment
stocks abroad(-20)
Economic performance
Government efficiency
Business efficiency
Infrastructure
Insufficient scientific
infrastructure (-10)
IMD competitive ranking analysis of major weaknessesIMD competitive ranking analysis of major weaknesses
Competitiveness - Weaknesses
Several mega-trends with high relevance on Thailand's future development
PeoplePeople
Aging society
Urbanization
Health &safety concerns
International mobility
Connectivity
EnvironmentEnvironment
Climate changes
Scarcity and deteriorating quality of resources
BusinessBusiness
Shifting economic leadership to Asia
Stronger focus on governance
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
5
SWOT analysis for Thailand shows several opportunities for action
Strengths
• Central physical location • High-quality service• Sufficiency and diversity of
agricultural resource• Low inflation & cost of living• Healthy environment for
employment
Opportunities
• Aging society (developed countries)
• International mobility• Connectivity• Shifting economic leadership
to Asia• Health and safety concerns
Weaknesses
• Insufficient scientific infrastructure
• Low productivity and efficiency
• Insufficient education quality• Insufficient health quality
Threats
• Aging society (Thailand)• Climate change• Scarcity and deteriorating
quality of resources (water, energy, food, soil)
• Urbanization• Strong focus on governance
Source: NESDB 2570 Vision Paper, IMD competitiveness, BCG Analysis
Competitiveness analysis Mega-trend analysis
Strategic focus"What Thailand should be known for"
Strategic pillars"How Thailand should operate"
Strategic foundation"What Thailand needs to have"
Potential 2020 Vision for ThailandTransformation from commodity supplier to branded, high value-added economy
Strategic Focus
" What Thailand should be known
for"
Strategic pillars
"How Thailand should operate"
Foundation
"What Thailand needs to have"
High quality & wide access to social services
Sufficiency & sustainable resource management
High quality physical & technological infrastructure
Prudent fiscal & monetary policy
Open economy with high
social mobility
Culture of tech/
entrepreneur-ship&
excellence
Coordinated cluster
economy system
Knowledge & creativity
based communities
World-class work ethics
& governance
High value-added economy
World's food supplier Leader in creative products
Magnet for cultural & eco-tourismhigh-value added services
Regional logistics hub
12
3
4
Transformation towards sustainable, higher value economyNational agenda is key to drive transformation
Thailand TodayThailand Today
Commodity products
OEM focus
Basic infrastructure
Basic use of rich cultural heritage in commercialization of products and services
Thailand 2020Thailand 2020
Higher value-added products
Branded products
Higher-quality physical and technological infrastructure
Cultural tourism and heritage-based product commercialization
• Add value
• Build brand
• Invest in infrastructure
• Leverage Thai heritage
“We must become the change we wish to see in the world.”
Mahatma Gandhi
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