situational analytics

Situational Analytics

2013-2016

The Impact of Internal Decisions and External Factors

The following two cases are examples of situational analysis. Both these cases have been done in retrospect however this analysis can be done in real time. With enough data predictive models can be built to project the probable impact of internal decisions.

Categorisation of the data allows us to finely analyse exactly what impact a specific event - be it an external world event or an internal policy decision or a political landscape

change - is having on the online conversation and perception of the Democratic Alliance.

Internal Decisions

22 August 2016 - Herman Mashaba is elected Mayor of Johannesburg

Positive conversation about DA+Multi Party follows the same trend line as general DA positive, although volumes are slightly lower.

Neutral DA conversation increases in the week of the 16th to 19th of August due to weekday reporting on coalition speculations.

The breaking news on the 22nd resulted in neutral DA conversation (reporting and fact sharing) posting the largest volume spike across the categories.

General DA positive and DA+Multi Party positive conversations immediately decrease after the 22nd to levels lower than the previous work week.

In contrast there seems to be a small knee-jerk reaction on the 23rd from the general DA negative conversation.

Internal Decisions


Pro DA vs EFF conversation as well as Pro DA vs ANC conversation follow the basic volume trend line of the total conversation.

The standout to this trend in party comparison conversation is the Pro EFF vs DA conversation on the 16th and 17th of August. This spike does mimic the general DA positive and DA+Multi Party positive conversation for the corresponding days.

Internal Decisions


The sentiment of the total DA conversation between 15 and 29 August 2016 was 9% less positive and 9% more negative when compared to the sentiment of all South African Twitter

conversation for the same timeframe.

For the total DA conversation, negative sentiment (30%) significantly outweighed the positive sentiment (19%) between 15 and 29 August. The 22nd of August was only day where positive sentiment was higher (24% compared to 21% negative).

External Factors

05 December 2013 - Death of Madiba announced to public15 December 2013 - State funeral for Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela

Over the two week period between 05 and 19 December 2013 the volume of general DA positive conversation was higher (20%) than the general DA negative conversation(14%).

Notably, the days of the 5th and the 15th positive conversation referencing the DA was significantly higher than negative.

On the 6th of December the volumes of general DA positive and negative conversation were near identical.

In contrast, on the 16th of December the volume of negative general DA conversation was 3.5 times higher than positive DA general conversation.

External Factors


In analysis of the DA vs ANC conversation for the 5 to 19 December period, the Pro DA conversation has twice the volume as the Pro ANC conversation.

There are, however, two separate days when Pro ANC

conversation outweighs the Pro DA conversation:

On the 8th of December there is 4 times the volume of Pro

ANC vs DA conversation when compared to Pro DA vs ANC;

and more than double the volume on the 12th.

In the DA vs EFF conversation, Pro EFF volumes are

twice as high during this two

week period when compared to Pro

DA.

External Factors

The sentiment of the total DA conversation between 5 and 19 December 2013 was 11% less positive and 6% more negative when compared to the sentiment of all South African Twitter

conversation for the same timeframe.

For the total DA conversation, negative sentiment (42%) significantly outweighed the positive sentiment (18%) between 5 and 19 December. The biggest disparity was on the 16th of December

when 58% of the conversation was negative in sentiment compared to only 15% positive.


situational analytics

Data & Analytics