THE SECRETARY OF DEfENSE WASHINGTON DC 20Sa

15 APR 1977

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITYAFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) Ta_rgeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question ~egardi_ng Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than fo11owi_ng current policy which targets industrY The estimates provided are themiddot result of manual calculations using data bases which were not des_igned to allow precise computation of middot t he middot results of a population attack

The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consfder the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks However~ available intell_igence does not pennit higp confidence analysis in this area

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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

DIRECTOR PLANNING AND EVALUATION

WASHINGTON D C 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

SUBJECT SlOP Targeting Philosophy (U)

The Chairman JCS proposed a response to a question asked by Dr Brzezinski regarding the effect of using SIOP forces to target Soviet populationdirectly vice current policy which is to target economic installations In general the JCS response stated that the current SlOP is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent 845 million) of the total population and that by targeting population directly the forces would cause fatalities of about 44 percent (115 million) These figures include estimated collateral fatalities due to fallout

In your notation on the proposed CJCS response you asked DPampE to validate the JCS results and asked whether the hypothetical retargeting (of peoplevice industry) would make the outcome less dependent on the potentialdegree of sheltering of the population and to what extent

We have not been able to directly validate the JCS numbers (a) because the JCS analysis performed by the Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff in Omaha included manually-created aimpoints which we cannot duplicateand (b) because we do not have access to the mix of weapons or the planning factors which are used in the SIOP laydown

However an analysis of theoretical attacks using exemplar weapon yieldsdoes provide what we believe are upper and lower bounds on prompt urban fatalities--ie no fallout effects--resulting from attacks on industryand from attacks on population directly These results are summarized in TAB A and for your information the weapon response curves from which the data were extracted are also included

The partials for the percent of total population fatalities resulting from economic and direct population attacks differ in the DPampE analysis because of the sensitivity of collateral prompt urban fatalities to weapon yieldThese are not directly comparable to the partials for the JCS SlOP economic and theoretical population attack because the JCS analysis employed a force with a mix of yields and included fallout fataNities Since the PampE analysis does not refute the reasonableness of that analysis I recommend that the JCS numbers be used in the response to Dr Brzezinski and have incorporated them into our proposed draft attached at TAB B

middot ecember 1997 - middotmiddot----- middotmiddotmiddot----- ------middot-middot rr ~~~ ~ r~ ~ f middot ~middot 1 I bull

middot-----middot - --------shy

2

-

JOe SECRET

We have examined the sensitivitymiddotof themiddot results oftheoretical industryand population attacks to two population shelteri_ng postures and find that the fatalities caused by direct attackson middotpopulationmiddotaremiddotless sensitive to the degree of shelterf_ng The results are sulllllarized in the table bel()WThe analysis assumes that the entire urban populationmiddot is protected to th~ indicated hardnessmiddot and that blast overpressure is themiddot only kill mechanism 10 psi is roughly equiValent to the protection afforded by a multi-story masonry buildi_ng whereas 36 psimiddot equates to a reinforcedmiddot concrete igloo with two feet of earth cover The middotassumption that the entire urban populationis protected to 36 psi middot is very severe~ In fact onlya small percentage of the Soviet urban population middotcould be protected at this level~ middot

PROMPT middotmiddot URBAN FATALITIESPERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION

middot WEAPON TYPE SHELTER POSTURE POSEIDON I I SRAM I MMn l

II)-~ 1 10 PSI I-c_ ~ a Industry Attack ~)

27MlOS 43M17 57M22b Population Attack 71M28 75M29 77M30l= s

(j 2 36 PSI I~ ~

~~

N a Industry Attack 1M- 3M1 3MllII) ~) b Population middotAttack 42M16 48M19 49M19 q Attack level equal to 70 economic value destroyed~

I have incorporated a SWllllary statement rygarding sensitivity to shelteri_ng tn my proposed response to Or Rrzezfns~i

~~A Milton A MargolisActing DirectorPlanning and Evaluation

Attachments

shyI t

o bull bull middotmiddotmiddot~ I 0 0

bull -r---------shyJ bull bull I ~ ~ ) ~-

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

DIRECTOR PLANNING AND EVALUATION

WASHINGTON D C 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

SUBJECT SlOP Targeting Philosophy (U)

The Chairman JCS proposed a response to a question asked by Dr Brzezinski regarding the effect of using SIOP forces to target Soviet populationdirectly vice current policy which is to target economic installations In general the JCS response stated that the current SlOP is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent 845 million) of the total population and that by targeting population directly the forces would cause fatalities of about 44 percent (115 million) These figures include estimated collateral fatalities due to fallout

In your notation on the proposed CJCS response you asked DPampE to validate the JCS results and asked whether the hypothetical retargeting (of peoplevice industry) would make the outcome less dependent on the potentialdegree of sheltering of the population and to what extent

We have not been able to directly validate the JCS numbers (a) because the JCS analysis performed by the Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff in Omaha included manually-created aimpoints which we cannot duplicateand (b) because we do not have access to the mix of weapons or the planning factors which are used in the SIOP laydown

However an analysis of theoretical attacks using exemplar weapon yieldsdoes provide what we believe are upper and lower bounds on prompt urban fatalities--ie no fallout effects--resulting from attacks on industryand from attacks on population directly These results are summarized in TAB A and for your information the weapon response curves from which the data were extracted are also included

The partials for the percent of total population fatalities resulting from economic and direct population attacks differ in the DPampE analysis because of the sensitivity of collateral prompt urban fatalities to weapon yieldThese are not directly comparable to the partials for the JCS SlOP economic and theoretical population attack because the JCS analysis employed a force with a mix of yields and included fallout fataNities Since the PampE analysis does not refute the reasonableness of that analysis I recommend that the JCS numbers be used in the response to Dr Brzezinski and have incorporated them into our proposed draft attached at TAB B

middot ecember 1997 - middotmiddot----- middotmiddotmiddot----- ------middot-middot rr ~~~ ~ r~ ~ f middot ~middot 1 I bull

middot-----middot - --------shy

2

-

JOe SECRET

We have examined the sensitivitymiddotof themiddot results oftheoretical industryand population attacks to two population shelteri_ng postures and find that the fatalities caused by direct attackson middotpopulationmiddotaremiddotless sensitive to the degree of shelterf_ng The results are sulllllarized in the table bel()WThe analysis assumes that the entire urban populationmiddot is protected to th~ indicated hardnessmiddot and that blast overpressure is themiddot only kill mechanism 10 psi is roughly equiValent to the protection afforded by a multi-story masonry buildi_ng whereas 36 psimiddot equates to a reinforcedmiddot concrete igloo with two feet of earth cover The middotassumption that the entire urban populationis protected to 36 psi middot is very severe~ In fact onlya small percentage of the Soviet urban population middotcould be protected at this level~ middot

PROMPT middotmiddot URBAN FATALITIESPERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION

middot WEAPON TYPE SHELTER POSTURE POSEIDON I I SRAM I MMn l

II)-~ 1 10 PSI I-c_ ~ a Industry Attack ~)

27MlOS 43M17 57M22b Population Attack 71M28 75M29 77M30l= s

(j 2 36 PSI I~ ~

~~

N a Industry Attack 1M- 3M1 3MllII) ~) b Population middotAttack 42M16 48M19 49M19 q Attack level equal to 70 economic value destroyed~

I have incorporated a SWllllary statement rygarding sensitivity to shelteri_ng tn my proposed response to Or Rrzezfns~i

~~A Milton A MargolisActing DirectorPlanning and Evaluation

Attachments

shyI t

2

-

JOe SECRET

We have examined the sensitivitymiddotof themiddot results oftheoretical industryand population attacks to two population shelteri_ng postures and find that the fatalities caused by direct attackson middotpopulationmiddotaremiddotless sensitive to the degree of shelterf_ng The results are sulllllarized in the table bel()WThe analysis assumes that the entire urban populationmiddot is protected to th~ indicated hardnessmiddot and that blast overpressure is themiddot only kill mechanism 10 psi is roughly equiValent to the protection afforded by a multi-story masonry buildi_ng whereas 36 psimiddot equates to a reinforcedmiddot concrete igloo with two feet of earth cover The middotassumption that the entire urban populationis protected to 36 psi middot is very severe~ In fact onlya small percentage of the Soviet urban population middotcould be protected at this level~ middot

PROMPT middotmiddot URBAN FATALITIESPERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION

middot WEAPON TYPE SHELTER POSTURE POSEIDON I I SRAM I MMn l

II)-~ 1 10 PSI I-c_ ~ a Industry Attack ~)

27MlOS 43M17 57M22b Population Attack 71M28 75M29 77M30l= s

(j 2 36 PSI I~ ~

~~

N a Industry Attack 1M- 3M1 3MllII) ~) b Population middotAttack 42M16 48M19 49M19 q Attack level equal to 70 economic value destroyed~

I have incorporated a SWllllary statement rygarding sensitivity to shelteri_ng tn my proposed response to Or Rrzezfns~i

~~A Milton A MargolisActing DirectorPlanning and Evaluation

Attachments

shyI t

middotshy _

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TAB A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4---~WW~~~~uu~rel~aampe

by the Department of Defense SUMMARY OF PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES - ECONOMIC VERSUS POPULATION ATTACKS under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Flltmfirl v I fi~trl11Id Data

POSEIDON SRAM MM-11

ATTACK lEVEL

PROMPT URBAN FATALITIESPERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION 1 a Economic attack 70

economic value destroyed 31M12 51M20 65M25

b Population attack Same attack level as la 72M28 75M29 78M30

___________________________ _______ _

~ ~ ~ sg ~ I 2 a Economic attack ~~~ I I 16M6t 36Ml4 83M32~~~til~ClC-Cl middot- -+-lt 0 0 b Population attackzoltltnE I I 47M18 51M20 99M38~ 1 0 -~

_ ~ N ~ ssltntlot~-3 -----------------------------------shy

ctl 0 oc) b- ~ ~1 3 a Economic attack ~o ~ ~

c ~ ~ z I I 26M10 55M2l (No Data)-sc~t middot - 0 0 ~ gt- s (I b Population attack

0 l I I 65M25r BlM31 (No Data)

Prompt urban fatalities using criteria of AP-550 Physical Vulnerabi li ty Handbook - Nuclear Weapons There are approximately 130M people or one-half the Soviet population in the urban popu1at1on data base

Number of weapons varies with yield See a~tached response curves

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense - under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data__ _ =rt-middott-t-tmiddot +I I I I I UlLlf~CJl~lr~ -----rl--middott-rrt middot1- tmiddotrJmiddottmiddotmiddot~-~-~ -middotmiddot middot~middotmiddot middot + -middotmiddot- - - -- - - fiJq-middot __middotmiddot-middot -- middotmiddot-middot--middot-middotshy PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES middotmiddot1-t--t- J- I middot

THEORETICAL POSEIDON ATTACK -- fJJ--1--J 41-middotmiddot middotmiddot-middot-41-bullshyFEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASE I t middot l --1-+middotttttl

I JWJplusmnJI~Jil ft]tflJllfflfftlllifplusmntlJtjjttJttttttttJttHttt1JtJtttttftl~ ttt=tttt ttltttHtt ti=tt1~tHI- middotmiddot--r-middot-middotshy~1middot+++-1--+-~-

middotmiddot- -- -middot -tttttbullplusmntplusmnllllbull - ~ - ~ - ~j ~ 1-P 11 r t-bull -~

middotmiddot - -- -- Ill tt~~~- middot 1fc~ bull - LLl 1 middot t - middotmiddot middot 11

1llhbull J -r- ftl ii-1 - - - - - l I TTT T ll_ - i - u~bull~middot~ --d~t~ - J t ~ middot middot - middot middot 1 1 B _c iiJ middot I l l _I

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middot middotmiddot_ - middot 1o~ - - - middot -middot - +t-tttttH+HmiddotIH+H-H--~-1 I I I I ~ - middotfmiddot - middotl 1--t - -f- bullltJ shy~l~~~middot~

Kfl= middot ~~ - - -~ t=ttm~-~ r~ - -~ - ~ ~ f middotI II II I Hmiddot-middot - tmiddot bull I~ - ~ - ~--middot middotI ~~ tttttf- middot~-LH-f-- +-I-- _fiff- 1tmiddotl-l-1~-1-1- -H+ l j-j ~- ~ +1+1shylt-f-_ u -1- t-1- 1-L~+J 1_ _- middott -~middot~ltcclt ~ _IJ middotHshy l T TT

V i I tTJ1- ~~~ - bullbull bull r f- l-1-1 b l T t-1- - 1- 1- --~ HlttrHmiddot b ~-~ --~ bull - H--1-H 1 H -~ 3T I 1 middot lofiil~~ _ middot - - H _I ~ bullI rf-l gt-+1-LTT T

Iii gtl middot +bullmiddot J _ T 1 ~ -~ t-1l~IJ41111U- Eco- bA ~AampE -~~ ~ ~~- ~ middot~rrtmiddotlplusmnplusmnt 1 i-~l-llHi~ -H-+ 1

middot -141111111 middotyen ~~- lA+t-Ht-H tiiiTrrH-J~H-1111111_++-H++-H 11111-111111111 J++ H-1-1111111 +middot

-+++++-+-- shy ~-2fllplusmnfltfflJUTJllllltl1_111 II I t-HTH++H++t-H+t++H++H-t+H-H-H-H 111 Ill+~ a=t-1111111-1 - ~=-==--=-===

I I I I I I 1-J-H+-H+H

=tm ITT T NfcJlF IAP 550 Criteria Combined Effects of A1rblast and Radiation

Withheld fron) public rei~~

by the Department ofDeT~rse 1middot-------------------------------------------------------shyunder EO 13526 sect 62(a) as Formerly Restricted Data

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense

~ rl-Tmiddotmnrn under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

- ~ I tlf-Hlf-itlHfHJJliJPmiddotLulJ I I mTnf - r estricted Data __ --- bull

__bullmiddotmiddot bull- ItPROMPT URBAN FATALITIES - bull _ THEORETICAL SRAM ATTACK I I

FEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASpound

l-+t--++++-H+

- 1 1-~-~~rt mbull-- -- - Lrrmn-mlfUJJIIfllllilfi ltgt2~~j t _- _J t - - -

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-

I I I I I I I IBf l ~ middott+H-t+H -~middot- middot--~-~- middotshy-

middot-1+1~--~middot -bull middot middot middot - middot -middotmiddot- ~-

++lt I I I I I I ~bulljjj+++H+++

JJraquomiHitm middot11111111111111111111111111111111111 1-1 1111 ~Rfrt H-+shy

AP 550 Cr1ter1a Conm1ned Effects of Airblast and Radiation Withheld from public rmiddot~e e _j__________________-__________l e~as~

by the Department ofDefense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restr icted Data

Withheld from public release by the Department of DefenseI middot middot middot tta under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as -

~DCTr middot Formerly Restricted Datamiddot--rrrriJII 11TIII LIITl_ILLL 1111rm-rtl~r~~ y-r --------_- -- bull----- shy

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1 PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES middot1-pound A-1- 1 I_ L-IJ _ _l _ L_l_ ~~middot middot U~~ T~~gR~~~~Ak~o~LA+xg~~ ~A-S-E-

middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddot -1--1-H-~ ------ middot --middotmiddotmiddot-middotshy

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- ~- til loo v ~ shy-H-++-1-~~f I I I I I I ~ ttttt~~ _I~bullbull middot ~ bull~~~ ip~8 ~~ ~ middotmiddotmiddotmiddot Hlfnt

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1--l+f-+++++lfllflffl r~FftE-ru-H-H-+~ +++++t-t-+middot1+Imiddot I middot -1-middotf-++++l

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111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 LI middot n +++1-H-+-H-H-++-H+H+H+~~~ AP 550 Criteria

Ul ithhPl ri frnrr n 1ihli rPlP~ltP

by the Department of Defense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data

TOP SECRET

r-middot--- -~ -- D-

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THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan SlOP) Targeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question middotregarding Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than following current policy which targets industry The estimates provided are the result of manual calculations using data bases which were not designed to allow precise computation of the results of a population attackbull

Q-~ In the most recent dynamic SovietUS wargame simulation tne largest ~ option in the current SlOP I targetingsect plan) is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent ~ (845M) of the total population includes estimated effects from fallout) ~ If we were to directly tar~et Soviet population with todays SIOP weapons ~ including the _ I N I I the estimated fatalities ~ would increase to about 44 percent (JlSM) bull

middot The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consider the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks bull However available intelligence does not permit high confidence analysis in this area

Clas~ by______ -~L---~f ~--------EX ~~cmiddott bull middot-~ -r ~~~~ middot --- -z~middotr ~ L~ OF

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-------------------------------------------------------------------------

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TAB A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4---~WW~~~~uu~rel~aampe

by the Department of Defense SUMMARY OF PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES - ECONOMIC VERSUS POPULATION ATTACKS under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Flltmfirl v I fi~trl11Id Data

POSEIDON SRAM MM-11

ATTACK lEVEL

PROMPT URBAN FATALITIESPERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION 1 a Economic attack 70

economic value destroyed 31M12 51M20 65M25

b Population attack Same attack level as la 72M28 75M29 78M30

___________________________ _______ _

~ ~ ~ sg ~ I 2 a Economic attack ~~~ I I 16M6t 36Ml4 83M32~~~til~ClC-Cl middot- -+-lt 0 0 b Population attackzoltltnE I I 47M18 51M20 99M38~ 1 0 -~

_ ~ N ~ ssltntlot~-3 -----------------------------------shy

ctl 0 oc) b- ~ ~1 3 a Economic attack ~o ~ ~

c ~ ~ z I I 26M10 55M2l (No Data)-sc~t middot - 0 0 ~ gt- s (I b Population attack

0 l I I 65M25r BlM31 (No Data)

Prompt urban fatalities using criteria of AP-550 Physical Vulnerabi li ty Handbook - Nuclear Weapons There are approximately 130M people or one-half the Soviet population in the urban popu1at1on data base

Number of weapons varies with yield See a~tached response curves

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense - under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data__ _ =rt-middott-t-tmiddot +I I I I I UlLlf~CJl~lr~ -----rl--middott-rrt middot1- tmiddotrJmiddottmiddotmiddot~-~-~ -middotmiddot middot~middotmiddot middot + -middotmiddot- - - -- - - fiJq-middot __middotmiddot-middot -- middotmiddot-middot--middot-middotshy PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES middotmiddot1-t--t- J- I middot

THEORETICAL POSEIDON ATTACK -- fJJ--1--J 41-middotmiddot middotmiddot-middot-41-bullshyFEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASE I t middot l --1-+middotttttl

I JWJplusmnJI~Jil ft]tflJllfflfftlllifplusmntlJtjjttJttttttttJttHttt1JtJtttttftl~ ttt=tttt ttltttHtt ti=tt1~tHI- middotmiddot--r-middot-middotshy~1middot+++-1--+-~-

middotmiddot- -- -middot -tttttbullplusmntplusmnllllbull - ~ - ~ - ~j ~ 1-P 11 r t-bull -~

middotmiddot - -- -- Ill tt~~~- middot 1fc~ bull - LLl 1 middot t - middotmiddot middot 11

1llhbull J -r- ftl ii-1 - - - - - l I TTT T ll_ - i - u~bull~middot~ --d~t~ - J t ~ middot middot - middot middot 1 1 B _c iiJ middot I l l _I

- - Ii1 fl D Ibull ~ - - bull I I - - I~ L~ ~ - - r ~ shy~ - ~ - -- - - ~~~ - --

middot middotmiddot_ - middot 1o~ - - - middot -middot - +t-tttttH+HmiddotIH+H-H--~-1 I I I I ~ - middotfmiddot - middotl 1--t - -f- bullltJ shy~l~~~middot~

Kfl= middot ~~ - - -~ t=ttm~-~ r~ - -~ - ~ ~ f middotI II II I Hmiddot-middot - tmiddot bull I~ - ~ - ~--middot middotI ~~ tttttf- middot~-LH-f-- +-I-- _fiff- 1tmiddotl-l-1~-1-1- -H+ l j-j ~- ~ +1+1shylt-f-_ u -1- t-1- 1-L~+J 1_ _- middott -~middot~ltcclt ~ _IJ middotHshy l T TT

V i I tTJ1- ~~~ - bullbull bull r f- l-1-1 b l T t-1- - 1- 1- --~ HlttrHmiddot b ~-~ --~ bull - H--1-H 1 H -~ 3T I 1 middot lofiil~~ _ middot - - H _I ~ bullI rf-l gt-+1-LTT T

Iii gtl middot +bullmiddot J _ T 1 ~ -~ t-1l~IJ41111U- Eco- bA ~AampE -~~ ~ ~~- ~ middot~rrtmiddotlplusmnplusmnt 1 i-~l-llHi~ -H-+ 1

middot -141111111 middotyen ~~- lA+t-Ht-H tiiiTrrH-J~H-1111111_++-H++-H 11111-111111111 J++ H-1-1111111 +middot

-+++++-+-- shy ~-2fllplusmnfltfflJUTJllllltl1_111 II I t-HTH++H++t-H+t++H++H-t+H-H-H-H 111 Ill+~ a=t-1111111-1 - ~=-==--=-===

I I I I I I 1-J-H+-H+H

=tm ITT T NfcJlF IAP 550 Criteria Combined Effects of A1rblast and Radiation

Withheld fron) public rei~~

by the Department ofDeT~rse 1middot-------------------------------------------------------shyunder EO 13526 sect 62(a) as Formerly Restricted Data

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense

~ rl-Tmiddotmnrn under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

- ~ I tlf-Hlf-itlHfHJJliJPmiddotLulJ I I mTnf - r estricted Data __ --- bull

__bullmiddotmiddot bull- ItPROMPT URBAN FATALITIES - bull _ THEORETICAL SRAM ATTACK I I

FEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASpound

l-+t--++++-H+

- 1 1-~-~~rt mbull-- -- - Lrrmn-mlfUJJIIfllllilfi ltgt2~~j t _- _J t - - -

___

-

I I I I I I I IBf l ~ middott+H-t+H -~middot- middot--~-~- middotshy-

middot-1+1~--~middot -bull middot middot middot - middot -middotmiddot- ~-

++lt I I I I I I ~bulljjj+++H+++

JJraquomiHitm middot11111111111111111111111111111111111 1-1 1111 ~Rfrt H-+shy

AP 550 Cr1ter1a Conm1ned Effects of Airblast and Radiation Withheld from public rmiddot~e e _j__________________-__________l e~as~

by the Department ofDefense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restr icted Data

Withheld from public release by the Department of DefenseI middot middot middot tta under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as -

~DCTr middot Formerly Restricted Datamiddot--rrrriJII 11TIII LIITl_ILLL 1111rm-rtl~r~~ y-r --------_- -- bull----- shy

II bullbull

1 PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES middot1-pound A-1- 1 I_ L-IJ _ _l _ L_l_ ~~middot middot U~~ T~~gR~~~~Ak~o~LA+xg~~ ~A-S-E-

middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddot -1--1-H-~ ------ middot --middotmiddotmiddot-middotshy

- ~-~-- L~ I~+J --H-H--H-t--1 -lt-J-H+I 11111-H-11 I I IIIII Ill t-H

- ~~~lr - ~- ~ --~ middot ~ middot~ i - -_ ~ --- - u~lf_FF~lP- ~w~~~ middot middot middot - r1 T -tlpound~ _middotrrfl ImmmtlllllNl gt - ~middot~ bulld -tmiddot

-Li1 t1 ~middot~~~~~~ I T t+H- 11 II III I

~ ~ Ii ~~ __ _ f- ~ p- ~ _ _ _ - - - _ - - - - I I 1I TT10 bull bull bull ~ bull bull ~ bull bull middotbull Llbullnoo -~ 1lt ~~~middot-middot middot oliiliil0~~ l~tl gtH bull 1

- - - ~~ ~~- J ~~~ middot~Cf ~middot pound_0middot biiMA -~ - H - 4bull middot - middot I middot - - lo a0bull 11 middot - I- middot H- ~-bull

-- - middotIIJibullr~ middot - - - middotH bull _ _ -- ~- ~-~ -- -- -ioo ~~~-- middotmiddot - II middotmiddot - middot - TttH+Ibull middot middot1 middot gttcr-- - middot - middot~ middotmiddot middot - -H -r1

bull - _ - - middot - middot - bull l I IT l

- ~- til loo v ~ shy-H-++-1-~~f I I I I I I ~ ttttt~~ _I~bullbull middot ~ bull~~~ ip~8 ~~ ~ middotmiddotmiddotmiddot Hlfnt

1t-- bull middot ~ bull LlllLLLI I I I TTT 1

+-+-+-++1-1-1middotmiddot1-1 -J -1-J-J -J~~

1--l+f-+++++lfllflffl r~FftE-ru-H-H-+~ +++++t-t-+middot1+Imiddot I middot -1-middotf-++++l

I

111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 LI middot n +++1-H-+-H-H-++-H+H+H+~~~ AP 550 Criteria

Ul ithhPl ri frnrr n 1ihli rPlP~ltP

by the Department of Defense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data

TOP SECRET

r-middot--- -~ -- D-

- 0 Proposed SecDef memo for Asst to the Pres for NSA~ subj -middot SIOP Targeting Philosophy (U) t ~-middotmiddot

~_ -middot middot middot

f

I I

1

TOP SECRET

bull ua middot wLbl tLT

THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan SlOP) Targeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question middotregarding Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than following current policy which targets industry The estimates provided are the result of manual calculations using data bases which were not designed to allow precise computation of the results of a population attackbull

Q-~ In the most recent dynamic SovietUS wargame simulation tne largest ~ option in the current SlOP I targetingsect plan) is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent ~ (845M) of the total population includes estimated effects from fallout) ~ If we were to directly tar~et Soviet population with todays SIOP weapons ~ including the _ I N I I the estimated fatalities ~ would increase to about 44 percent (JlSM) bull

middot The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consider the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks bull However available intelligence does not permit high confidence analysis in this area

Clas~ by______ -~L---~f ~--------EX ~~cmiddott bull middot-~ -r ~~~~ middot --- -z~middotr ~ L~ OF

) middot~ - ~( l c~gtGjRY___2_ 3i - - --- ___

-

--4JOP SECRETshy

-middot r-~

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

middot

~JCwFf-hGO-

TAB A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4---~WW~~~~uu~rel~aampe

by the Department of Defense SUMMARY OF PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES - ECONOMIC VERSUS POPULATION ATTACKS under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Flltmfirl v I fi~trl11Id Data

POSEIDON SRAM MM-11

ATTACK lEVEL

PROMPT URBAN FATALITIESPERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION 1 a Economic attack 70

economic value destroyed 31M12 51M20 65M25

b Population attack Same attack level as la 72M28 75M29 78M30

___________________________ _______ _

~ ~ ~ sg ~ I 2 a Economic attack ~~~ I I 16M6t 36Ml4 83M32~~~til~ClC-Cl middot- -+-lt 0 0 b Population attackzoltltnE I I 47M18 51M20 99M38~ 1 0 -~

_ ~ N ~ ssltntlot~-3 -----------------------------------shy

ctl 0 oc) b- ~ ~1 3 a Economic attack ~o ~ ~

c ~ ~ z I I 26M10 55M2l (No Data)-sc~t middot - 0 0 ~ gt- s (I b Population attack

0 l I I 65M25r BlM31 (No Data)

Prompt urban fatalities using criteria of AP-550 Physical Vulnerabi li ty Handbook - Nuclear Weapons There are approximately 130M people or one-half the Soviet population in the urban popu1at1on data base

Number of weapons varies with yield See a~tached response curves

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense - under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data__ _ =rt-middott-t-tmiddot +I I I I I UlLlf~CJl~lr~ -----rl--middott-rrt middot1- tmiddotrJmiddottmiddotmiddot~-~-~ -middotmiddot middot~middotmiddot middot + -middotmiddot- - - -- - - fiJq-middot __middotmiddot-middot -- middotmiddot-middot--middot-middotshy PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES middotmiddot1-t--t- J- I middot

THEORETICAL POSEIDON ATTACK -- fJJ--1--J 41-middotmiddot middotmiddot-middot-41-bullshyFEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASE I t middot l --1-+middotttttl

I JWJplusmnJI~Jil ft]tflJllfflfftlllifplusmntlJtjjttJttttttttJttHttt1JtJtttttftl~ ttt=tttt ttltttHtt ti=tt1~tHI- middotmiddot--r-middot-middotshy~1middot+++-1--+-~-

middotmiddot- -- -middot -tttttbullplusmntplusmnllllbull - ~ - ~ - ~j ~ 1-P 11 r t-bull -~

middotmiddot - -- -- Ill tt~~~- middot 1fc~ bull - LLl 1 middot t - middotmiddot middot 11

1llhbull J -r- ftl ii-1 - - - - - l I TTT T ll_ - i - u~bull~middot~ --d~t~ - J t ~ middot middot - middot middot 1 1 B _c iiJ middot I l l _I

- - Ii1 fl D Ibull ~ - - bull I I - - I~ L~ ~ - - r ~ shy~ - ~ - -- - - ~~~ - --

middot middotmiddot_ - middot 1o~ - - - middot -middot - +t-tttttH+HmiddotIH+H-H--~-1 I I I I ~ - middotfmiddot - middotl 1--t - -f- bullltJ shy~l~~~middot~

Kfl= middot ~~ - - -~ t=ttm~-~ r~ - -~ - ~ ~ f middotI II II I Hmiddot-middot - tmiddot bull I~ - ~ - ~--middot middotI ~~ tttttf- middot~-LH-f-- +-I-- _fiff- 1tmiddotl-l-1~-1-1- -H+ l j-j ~- ~ +1+1shylt-f-_ u -1- t-1- 1-L~+J 1_ _- middott -~middot~ltcclt ~ _IJ middotHshy l T TT

V i I tTJ1- ~~~ - bullbull bull r f- l-1-1 b l T t-1- - 1- 1- --~ HlttrHmiddot b ~-~ --~ bull - H--1-H 1 H -~ 3T I 1 middot lofiil~~ _ middot - - H _I ~ bullI rf-l gt-+1-LTT T

Iii gtl middot +bullmiddot J _ T 1 ~ -~ t-1l~IJ41111U- Eco- bA ~AampE -~~ ~ ~~- ~ middot~rrtmiddotlplusmnplusmnt 1 i-~l-llHi~ -H-+ 1

middot -141111111 middotyen ~~- lA+t-Ht-H tiiiTrrH-J~H-1111111_++-H++-H 11111-111111111 J++ H-1-1111111 +middot

-+++++-+-- shy ~-2fllplusmnfltfflJUTJllllltl1_111 II I t-HTH++H++t-H+t++H++H-t+H-H-H-H 111 Ill+~ a=t-1111111-1 - ~=-==--=-===

I I I I I I 1-J-H+-H+H

=tm ITT T NfcJlF IAP 550 Criteria Combined Effects of A1rblast and Radiation

Withheld fron) public rei~~

by the Department ofDeT~rse 1middot-------------------------------------------------------shyunder EO 13526 sect 62(a) as Formerly Restricted Data

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense

~ rl-Tmiddotmnrn under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

- ~ I tlf-Hlf-itlHfHJJliJPmiddotLulJ I I mTnf - r estricted Data __ --- bull

__bullmiddotmiddot bull- ItPROMPT URBAN FATALITIES - bull _ THEORETICAL SRAM ATTACK I I

FEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASpound

l-+t--++++-H+

- 1 1-~-~~rt mbull-- -- - Lrrmn-mlfUJJIIfllllilfi ltgt2~~j t _- _J t - - -

___

-

I I I I I I I IBf l ~ middott+H-t+H -~middot- middot--~-~- middotshy-

middot-1+1~--~middot -bull middot middot middot - middot -middotmiddot- ~-

++lt I I I I I I ~bulljjj+++H+++

JJraquomiHitm middot11111111111111111111111111111111111 1-1 1111 ~Rfrt H-+shy

AP 550 Cr1ter1a Conm1ned Effects of Airblast and Radiation Withheld from public rmiddot~e e _j__________________-__________l e~as~

by the Department ofDefense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restr icted Data

Withheld from public release by the Department of DefenseI middot middot middot tta under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as -

~DCTr middot Formerly Restricted Datamiddot--rrrriJII 11TIII LIITl_ILLL 1111rm-rtl~r~~ y-r --------_- -- bull----- shy

II bullbull

1 PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES middot1-pound A-1- 1 I_ L-IJ _ _l _ L_l_ ~~middot middot U~~ T~~gR~~~~Ak~o~LA+xg~~ ~A-S-E-

middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddot -1--1-H-~ ------ middot --middotmiddotmiddot-middotshy

- ~-~-- L~ I~+J --H-H--H-t--1 -lt-J-H+I 11111-H-11 I I IIIII Ill t-H

- ~~~lr - ~- ~ --~ middot ~ middot~ i - -_ ~ --- - u~lf_FF~lP- ~w~~~ middot middot middot - r1 T -tlpound~ _middotrrfl ImmmtlllllNl gt - ~middot~ bulld -tmiddot

-Li1 t1 ~middot~~~~~~ I T t+H- 11 II III I

~ ~ Ii ~~ __ _ f- ~ p- ~ _ _ _ - - - _ - - - - I I 1I TT10 bull bull bull ~ bull bull ~ bull bull middotbull Llbullnoo -~ 1lt ~~~middot-middot middot oliiliil0~~ l~tl gtH bull 1

- - - ~~ ~~- J ~~~ middot~Cf ~middot pound_0middot biiMA -~ - H - 4bull middot - middot I middot - - lo a0bull 11 middot - I- middot H- ~-bull

-- - middotIIJibullr~ middot - - - middotH bull _ _ -- ~- ~-~ -- -- -ioo ~~~-- middotmiddot - II middotmiddot - middot - TttH+Ibull middot middot1 middot gttcr-- - middot - middot~ middotmiddot middot - -H -r1

bull - _ - - middot - middot - bull l I IT l

- ~- til loo v ~ shy-H-++-1-~~f I I I I I I ~ ttttt~~ _I~bullbull middot ~ bull~~~ ip~8 ~~ ~ middotmiddotmiddotmiddot Hlfnt

1t-- bull middot ~ bull LlllLLLI I I I TTT 1

+-+-+-++1-1-1middotmiddot1-1 -J -1-J-J -J~~

1--l+f-+++++lfllflffl r~FftE-ru-H-H-+~ +++++t-t-+middot1+Imiddot I middot -1-middotf-++++l

I

111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 LI middot n +++1-H-+-H-H-++-H+H+H+~~~ AP 550 Criteria

Ul ithhPl ri frnrr n 1ihli rPlP~ltP

by the Department of Defense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data

TOP SECRET

r-middot--- -~ -- D-

- 0 Proposed SecDef memo for Asst to the Pres for NSA~ subj -middot SIOP Targeting Philosophy (U) t ~-middotmiddot

~_ -middot middot middot

f

I I

1

TOP SECRET

bull ua middot wLbl tLT

THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan SlOP) Targeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question middotregarding Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than following current policy which targets industry The estimates provided are the result of manual calculations using data bases which were not designed to allow precise computation of the results of a population attackbull

Q-~ In the most recent dynamic SovietUS wargame simulation tne largest ~ option in the current SlOP I targetingsect plan) is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent ~ (845M) of the total population includes estimated effects from fallout) ~ If we were to directly tar~et Soviet population with todays SIOP weapons ~ including the _ I N I I the estimated fatalities ~ would increase to about 44 percent (JlSM) bull

middot The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consider the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks bull However available intelligence does not permit high confidence analysis in this area

Clas~ by______ -~L---~f ~--------EX ~~cmiddott bull middot-~ -r ~~~~ middot --- -z~middotr ~ L~ OF

) middot~ - ~( l c~gtGjRY___2_ 3i - - --- ___

-

--4JOP SECRETshy

-middot r-~

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense - under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data__ _ =rt-middott-t-tmiddot +I I I I I UlLlf~CJl~lr~ -----rl--middott-rrt middot1- tmiddotrJmiddottmiddotmiddot~-~-~ -middotmiddot middot~middotmiddot middot + -middotmiddot- - - -- - - fiJq-middot __middotmiddot-middot -- middotmiddot-middot--middot-middotshy PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES middotmiddot1-t--t- J- I middot

THEORETICAL POSEIDON ATTACK -- fJJ--1--J 41-middotmiddot middotmiddot-middot-41-bullshyFEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASE I t middot l --1-+middotttttl

I JWJplusmnJI~Jil ft]tflJllfflfftlllifplusmntlJtjjttJttttttttJttHttt1JtJtttttftl~ ttt=tttt ttltttHtt ti=tt1~tHI- middotmiddot--r-middot-middotshy~1middot+++-1--+-~-

middotmiddot- -- -middot -tttttbullplusmntplusmnllllbull - ~ - ~ - ~j ~ 1-P 11 r t-bull -~

middotmiddot - -- -- Ill tt~~~- middot 1fc~ bull - LLl 1 middot t - middotmiddot middot 11

1llhbull J -r- ftl ii-1 - - - - - l I TTT T ll_ - i - u~bull~middot~ --d~t~ - J t ~ middot middot - middot middot 1 1 B _c iiJ middot I l l _I

- - Ii1 fl D Ibull ~ - - bull I I - - I~ L~ ~ - - r ~ shy~ - ~ - -- - - ~~~ - --

middot middotmiddot_ - middot 1o~ - - - middot -middot - +t-tttttH+HmiddotIH+H-H--~-1 I I I I ~ - middotfmiddot - middotl 1--t - -f- bullltJ shy~l~~~middot~

Kfl= middot ~~ - - -~ t=ttm~-~ r~ - -~ - ~ ~ f middotI II II I Hmiddot-middot - tmiddot bull I~ - ~ - ~--middot middotI ~~ tttttf- middot~-LH-f-- +-I-- _fiff- 1tmiddotl-l-1~-1-1- -H+ l j-j ~- ~ +1+1shylt-f-_ u -1- t-1- 1-L~+J 1_ _- middott -~middot~ltcclt ~ _IJ middotHshy l T TT

V i I tTJ1- ~~~ - bullbull bull r f- l-1-1 b l T t-1- - 1- 1- --~ HlttrHmiddot b ~-~ --~ bull - H--1-H 1 H -~ 3T I 1 middot lofiil~~ _ middot - - H _I ~ bullI rf-l gt-+1-LTT T

Iii gtl middot +bullmiddot J _ T 1 ~ -~ t-1l~IJ41111U- Eco- bA ~AampE -~~ ~ ~~- ~ middot~rrtmiddotlplusmnplusmnt 1 i-~l-llHi~ -H-+ 1

middot -141111111 middotyen ~~- lA+t-Ht-H tiiiTrrH-J~H-1111111_++-H++-H 11111-111111111 J++ H-1-1111111 +middot

-+++++-+-- shy ~-2fllplusmnfltfflJUTJllllltl1_111 II I t-HTH++H++t-H+t++H++H-t+H-H-H-H 111 Ill+~ a=t-1111111-1 - ~=-==--=-===

I I I I I I 1-J-H+-H+H

=tm ITT T NfcJlF IAP 550 Criteria Combined Effects of A1rblast and Radiation

Withheld fron) public rei~~

by the Department ofDeT~rse 1middot-------------------------------------------------------shyunder EO 13526 sect 62(a) as Formerly Restricted Data

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense

~ rl-Tmiddotmnrn under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

- ~ I tlf-Hlf-itlHfHJJliJPmiddotLulJ I I mTnf - r estricted Data __ --- bull

__bullmiddotmiddot bull- ItPROMPT URBAN FATALITIES - bull _ THEORETICAL SRAM ATTACK I I

FEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASpound

l-+t--++++-H+

- 1 1-~-~~rt mbull-- -- - Lrrmn-mlfUJJIIfllllilfi ltgt2~~j t _- _J t - - -

___

-

I I I I I I I IBf l ~ middott+H-t+H -~middot- middot--~-~- middotshy-

middot-1+1~--~middot -bull middot middot middot - middot -middotmiddot- ~-

++lt I I I I I I ~bulljjj+++H+++

JJraquomiHitm middot11111111111111111111111111111111111 1-1 1111 ~Rfrt H-+shy

AP 550 Cr1ter1a Conm1ned Effects of Airblast and Radiation Withheld from public rmiddot~e e _j__________________-__________l e~as~

by the Department ofDefense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restr icted Data

Withheld from public release by the Department of DefenseI middot middot middot tta under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as -

~DCTr middot Formerly Restricted Datamiddot--rrrriJII 11TIII LIITl_ILLL 1111rm-rtl~r~~ y-r --------_- -- bull----- shy

II bullbull

1 PROMPT URBAN FATALITIES middot1-pound A-1- 1 I_ L-IJ _ _l _ L_l_ ~~middot middot U~~ T~~gR~~~~Ak~o~LA+xg~~ ~A-S-E-

middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddot -1--1-H-~ ------ middot --middotmiddotmiddot-middotshy

- ~-~-- L~ I~+J --H-H--H-t--1 -lt-J-H+I 11111-H-11 I I IIIII Ill t-H

- ~~~lr - ~- ~ --~ middot ~ middot~ i - -_ ~ --- - u~lf_FF~lP- ~w~~~ middot middot middot - r1 T -tlpound~ _middotrrfl ImmmtlllllNl gt - ~middot~ bulld -tmiddot

-Li1 t1 ~middot~~~~~~ I T t+H- 11 II III I

~ ~ Ii ~~ __ _ f- ~ p- ~ _ _ _ - - - _ - - - - I I 1I TT10 bull bull bull ~ bull bull ~ bull bull middotbull Llbullnoo -~ 1lt ~~~middot-middot middot oliiliil0~~ l~tl gtH bull 1

- - - ~~ ~~- J ~~~ middot~Cf ~middot pound_0middot biiMA -~ - H - 4bull middot - middot I middot - - lo a0bull 11 middot - I- middot H- ~-bull

-- - middotIIJibullr~ middot - - - middotH bull _ _ -- ~- ~-~ -- -- -ioo ~~~-- middotmiddot - II middotmiddot - middot - TttH+Ibull middot middot1 middot gttcr-- - middot - middot~ middotmiddot middot - -H -r1

bull - _ - - middot - middot - bull l I IT l

- ~- til loo v ~ shy-H-++-1-~~f I I I I I I ~ ttttt~~ _I~bullbull middot ~ bull~~~ ip~8 ~~ ~ middotmiddotmiddotmiddot Hlfnt

1t-- bull middot ~ bull LlllLLLI I I I TTT 1

+-+-+-++1-1-1middotmiddot1-1 -J -1-J-J -J~~

1--l+f-+++++lfllflffl r~FftE-ru-H-H-+~ +++++t-t-+middot1+Imiddot I middot -1-middotf-++++l

I

111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 LI middot n +++1-H-+-H-H-++-H+H+H+~~~ AP 550 Criteria

Ul ithhPl ri frnrr n 1ihli rPlP~ltP

by the Department of Defense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data

TOP SECRET

r-middot--- -~ -- D-

- 0 Proposed SecDef memo for Asst to the Pres for NSA~ subj -middot SIOP Targeting Philosophy (U) t ~-middotmiddot

~_ -middot middot middot

f

I I

1

TOP SECRET

bull ua middot wLbl tLT

THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan SlOP) Targeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question middotregarding Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than following current policy which targets industry The estimates provided are the result of manual calculations using data bases which were not designed to allow precise computation of the results of a population attackbull

Q-~ In the most recent dynamic SovietUS wargame simulation tne largest ~ option in the current SlOP I targetingsect plan) is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent ~ (845M) of the total population includes estimated effects from fallout) ~ If we were to directly tar~et Soviet population with todays SIOP weapons ~ including the _ I N I I the estimated fatalities ~ would increase to about 44 percent (JlSM) bull

middot The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consider the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks bull However available intelligence does not permit high confidence analysis in this area

Clas~ by______ -~L---~f ~--------EX ~~cmiddott bull middot-~ -r ~~~~ middot --- -z~middotr ~ L~ OF

) middot~ - ~( l c~gtGjRY___2_ 3i - - --- ___

-

--4JOP SECRETshy

-middot r-~

Withheld from public release by the Department of Defense

~ rl-Tmiddotmnrn under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

- ~ I tlf-Hlf-itlHfHJJliJPmiddotLulJ I I mTnf - r estricted Data __ --- bull

__bullmiddotmiddot bull- ItPROMPT URBAN FATALITIES - bull _ THEORETICAL SRAM ATTACK I I

FEB 1977 NATIONAL TARGET BASpound

l-+t--++++-H+

- 1 1-~-~~rt mbull-- -- - Lrrmn-mlfUJJIIfllllilfi ltgt2~~j t _- _J t - - -

___

-

I I I I I I I IBf l ~ middott+H-t+H -~middot- middot--~-~- middotshy-

middot-1+1~--~middot -bull middot middot middot - middot -middotmiddot- ~-

++lt I I I I I I ~bulljjj+++H+++

JJraquomiHitm middot11111111111111111111111111111111111 1-1 1111 ~Rfrt H-+shy

AP 550 Cr1ter1a Conm1ned Effects of Airblast and Radiation Withheld from public rmiddot~e e _j__________________-__________l e~as~

by the Department ofDefense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restr icted Data

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by the Department of Defense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data

TOP SECRET

r-middot--- -~ -- D-

- 0 Proposed SecDef memo for Asst to the Pres for NSA~ subj -middot SIOP Targeting Philosophy (U) t ~-middotmiddot

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THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan SlOP) Targeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question middotregarding Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than following current policy which targets industry The estimates provided are the result of manual calculations using data bases which were not designed to allow precise computation of the results of a population attackbull

Q-~ In the most recent dynamic SovietUS wargame simulation tne largest ~ option in the current SlOP I targetingsect plan) is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent ~ (845M) of the total population includes estimated effects from fallout) ~ If we were to directly tar~et Soviet population with todays SIOP weapons ~ including the _ I N I I the estimated fatalities ~ would increase to about 44 percent (JlSM) bull

middot The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consider the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks bull However available intelligence does not permit high confidence analysis in this area

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Withheld from public release by the Department of DefenseI middot middot middot tta under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as -

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II bullbull

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Ul ithhPl ri frnrr n 1ihli rPlP~ltP

by the Department of Defense under EO 13526 sect 62(a) as

Formerly Restricted Data

TOP SECRET

r-middot--- -~ -- D-

- 0 Proposed SecDef memo for Asst to the Pres for NSA~ subj -middot SIOP Targeting Philosophy (U) t ~-middotmiddot

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1

TOP SECRET

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THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan SlOP) Targeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question middotregarding Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than following current policy which targets industry The estimates provided are the result of manual calculations using data bases which were not designed to allow precise computation of the results of a population attackbull

Q-~ In the most recent dynamic SovietUS wargame simulation tne largest ~ option in the current SlOP I targetingsect plan) is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent ~ (845M) of the total population includes estimated effects from fallout) ~ If we were to directly tar~et Soviet population with todays SIOP weapons ~ including the _ I N I I the estimated fatalities ~ would increase to about 44 percent (JlSM) bull

middot The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consider the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks bull However available intelligence does not permit high confidence analysis in this area

Clas~ by______ -~L---~f ~--------EX ~~cmiddott bull middot-~ -r ~~~~ middot --- -z~middotr ~ L~ OF

) middot~ - ~( l c~gtGjRY___2_ 3i - - --- ___

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TOP SECRET

r-middot--- -~ -- D-

- 0 Proposed SecDef memo for Asst to the Pres for NSA~ subj -middot SIOP Targeting Philosophy (U) t ~-middotmiddot

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TOP SECRET

bull ua middot wLbl tLT

THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan SlOP) Targeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question middotregarding Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than following current policy which targets industry The estimates provided are the result of manual calculations using data bases which were not designed to allow precise computation of the results of a population attackbull

Q-~ In the most recent dynamic SovietUS wargame simulation tne largest ~ option in the current SlOP I targetingsect plan) is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent ~ (845M) of the total population includes estimated effects from fallout) ~ If we were to directly tar~et Soviet population with todays SIOP weapons ~ including the _ I N I I the estimated fatalities ~ would increase to about 44 percent (JlSM) bull

middot The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consider the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks bull However available intelligence does not permit high confidence analysis in this area

Clas~ by______ -~L---~f ~--------EX ~~cmiddott bull middot-~ -r ~~~~ middot --- -z~middotr ~ L~ OF

) middot~ - ~( l c~gtGjRY___2_ 3i - - --- ___

-

--4JOP SECRETshy

-middot r-~

bull ua middot wLbl tLT

THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC 20301

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

SUBJECT Single Integrated Operational Plan SlOP) Targeting Philosophy

This memorandum responds to your question middotregarding Soviet fatalities if population were attacked directly in the SIOP rather than following current policy which targets industry The estimates provided are the result of manual calculations using data bases which were not designed to allow precise computation of the results of a population attackbull

Q-~ In the most recent dynamic SovietUS wargame simulation tne largest ~ option in the current SlOP I targetingsect plan) is estimated to produce Soviet fatalities of about 33 percent ~ (845M) of the total population includes estimated effects from fallout) ~ If we were to directly tar~et Soviet population with todays SIOP weapons ~ including the _ I N I I the estimated fatalities ~ would increase to about 44 percent (JlSM) bull

middot The above estimates do not reflect the range of uncertainty about fallout-related fatalities nor do they consider the possible effects of varying blast and fallout shelter postures Preliminary analysis has indicated that direct population attacks are less sensitive to assumed population sheltering postures than are economic attacks bull However available intelligence does not permit high confidence analysis in this area

Clas~ by______ -~L---~f ~--------EX ~~cmiddott bull middot-~ -r ~~~~ middot --- -z~middotr ~ L~ OF

) middot~ - ~( l c~gtGjRY___2_ 3i - - --- ___

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--4JOP SECRETshy

-middot r-~

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR PLANNING AND EVALUATION

WASHINGTON D C 20301

11 APR amp11

MEMORANDU~4 FOR MR MARGOLIS

SUBJECT SecDef Request Regarding SlOP Question (U)

Milt

Dr Brzezinski asked what would be the difference if US SlOP forces attacked Soviet populatior rather than following current policy

Attached is our response to SecDefbulls re~uest that we

Validate the JCS numbers proposed in response to the question

Examine the sensitivity of theoretical retargeting to the degree of sheltering and

Redraft the response to ZB in accordance with the results

I recommend that you sign the attached memo to SecDef which forvards t he results of our analysis as well as a proposed response to Dr Brzezinski

1 bull

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middot iTerrence J middotKing

Director Strategi c Forces Division

Attachments

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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

20 April 1977

Iemo For__M_r__M_a_rg_o_l_middots___________

SUBJECT

Milt

SecOef Request Regarding SlOP Question (U)

We have changed the attached memo for SecDef and Tab A per your suggestions I recommend the package be forwarded to the Secretary

Attachments

J bullmiddot middotshy rr 1 middotJ middot Terrence J King

Director Strategi~ Forces Division

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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

20 April 1977

Iemo For__M_r__M_a_rg_o_l_middots___________

SUBJECT

Milt

SecOef Request Regarding SlOP Question (U)

We have changed the attached memo for SecDef and Tab A per your suggestions I recommend the package be forwarded to the Secretary

Attachments

J bullmiddot middotshy rr 1 middotJ middot Terrence J King

Director Strategi~ Forces Division

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