simon ferrier senior principal research scientist

Making effective use of the Atlas of Living Australia in conservation

assessment through advances in spatial analysis & modelling

Simon FerrierSenior Principal Research Scientist

Biodiversity conservation assessment & planning

Conservation status

assessment

Spatial conservationprioritisation

On-ground decision making & management action

Monitoring of conservation outcomes

Sources of spatial data on biodiversity for fine-scaled conservation assessment

In-situ biological data(field observations & specimens)

Remotely derived environmental data(raw spectral data, abiotic surfaces, land cover / habitat / vegetation mapping)

• direct information on biodiversity

BUT

• incomplete spatial coverage

• complete spatial coverage

BUT

• variable, or unknown, congruence

Adding value to primary biological data through spatial analysis & modelling

Remote mapping of climate, terrain, soils

etc

Direct biological observations

Modelling of spatial patterns in the distribution of biodiversity

Mapping of land tenure, cover &

condition

Forecasting of biodiversity persistence

Alternative land use / management

scenarios

Assessment of change in the state of biodiversity

Mapping & modelling of pressures & threats



etc




condition



scenarios



Spectrum of distributional modelling strategies

Individual species modelling(“ecological niche modelling”)

Simultaneous multi-responsemodelling of multiple species

“Assemble first, predictlater” techniques

Modelling of emergent (collective)biodiversity properties (richness,compositional turnover etc)

• interested in individual species of particular concern• reasonable number of records per species

• interested in biodiversity as a whole• huge number of species, each with few (or no) records

Generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) Ferrier, S. et al (2007) Diversity & Distributions 13: 252-264

Clm05

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Compositional dissimilarity between pairs of locations

Environmental& geographicalseparation


p

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Least-cost pathgeographicalseparation

Site i

Site j

A

B

C

Community-levelphylogenetic dissimilarity

CBA

Adij

2

21

Generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) Leathwick, J.R. et al (in press) Freshwater Biology

K

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0.00.10.20.30.6

Environmental distance

B

A

C

D

E

F

Lowland, low gradient streams

Lowland hill-country streams

Lowland rivers & streams - dry climates

Mid-elevation streams - dry climates

Mid-elevation rivers & streams - wet climates

Mid-elevation rivers & streams - glacially influenced

Glacial rivers

High elevation streams – glacial

H

I

J

L

M

R

S

T

N

O

P

Q

High elevation streams – non-glacial



etc




condition



scenarios



Global analysis of protected-area coverage Ferrier, S. et al (2004) BioScience 54: 1101-1109

Quantifying biodiversity loss in MadagascarAllnutt, T., Ferrier, S. et al (2008) Conservation Letters. in press

“Original”

1950: 32.9% of species “committed to extinction”

2000: 42.0% of species “committed to extinction”



etc




condition



scenarios



Dynamic modelling of future habitat conditionDrielsma, M. & Ferrier, S. (2006) Ecological Management & Restoration 7: 45-52

Current habitat condition

Future habitat condition

Land-use / management Pressures / threats

Modelling of future change in habitat condition

Model parameters(based onexpert knowledge)

Modelling of potential impact of climate change on plant community composition (Logan, V., Ferrier, S., Manion, G. in prep)

Floristic survey data

Current climate surfaces

GDM analysis of compositional turnover in

relation to current climate

Potential change in composition (2050 high-emissions scenario)

Modelling of biodiversity persistence as a foundation for conservation planning & decision-making

Mapping of priorities for management

action

Modelling of biodiversity persistence

Planning and decision-making

Value ‘y’

Knowledge and data on ecological, social and economic systems

Modelling of multiple environmental, social & economic values

Evaluationof alternativeregional plansor scenarios

Value ‘x’

Automated development ofregional plans(optimisation)

Assessmentof specificon-groundproposals

etc ...

Modelling of biodiversity persistence as a foundation for conservation planning & decision-making

Need model evaluation, adaptive feedback and refinement


etc




condition



scenarios



On

goi

ng

da

ta r

efin

emen

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on

itori

ng, &

mod

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valu

atio

n

Survey gap analysis

most similar

less similar

most different

existing site

survey siteselected

Trial GDM-based analysis of ANHAT data by Department of Environment, Water, Heritage & the Arts (DEWHA)

Biological records(example: terrestrial gastropods)

Environmental layers

Modelled patterns of community composition

Derived analyses

Endemism

Protected areacoverage

Survey gap analysis

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au

Thank you

CSIRO EntomologySimon FerrierSenior Principal Research Scientist

Phone: +61 2 62464191Email: [email protected]: www.csiro.au/entomology

simon ferrier senior principal research scientist

Documents