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SHRINKING CITIES IN THE UNITED STATESTHE CHALLENGE OF POST-INDUSTRIAL TRANSITION

ALAN MALLACHSENIOR FELLOWCENTER FOR COMMUNITY PROGRESSWASHINGTON, DC, USA

PRESENTATION TO SHRINKING CITIES IN EUROPEFINAL CONFERENCE EU COST ACTION “CITIES GROWING SMALLER”ESSEN, GERMANY13 SEPTEMBER 2013

IMAGES

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MAJOR US SHRINKING CITIES(CITIES WITH 1950 POPULATION >100,000)

Chicago IL Newark NJ Albany NY

Philadelphia PA Buffalo NY New Bedford MA

Detroit MI Norfolk VA Fall River MA

Baltimore MD Birmingham AL Reading PA

Washington DC Rochester NY Trenton NJ

Louisville KY Richmond VA Gary IN

Milwaukee WI Akron OH Camden NJ

Cleveland OH Providence RI Scranton PA

Minneapolis MN Syracuse NY Canton OH

New Orleans LA Dayton OH Wilmington DE

St. Louis MO New Haven CT Youngstown OH

Pittsburgh PA Hartford CT Utica NY

Cincinnati OH Flint MI Saginaw MI

Toledo OH Erie PA

MAJOR US SHRINKING CITIES BY 2010 POPULATION

500,000+200,000-499,999<200,000

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POPULATION LOSS IN SIX LARGE AMERICAN CITIES 1950-2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Detroit

Baltimore

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

St. Louis

Buffalo

1950 population = 100

10 MAJOR SHRINKING CITIESCity 1950

population2000 population

2010 population

2010 as % of 1950 population

Population change 2000-2010

St. Louis 856796 348189 319294 37.3% - 8.3%

Detroit 1849568 951270 713777 38.6 - 25.0

Cleveland 914808 478403 396815 43.4 - 17.0

Buffalo 580182 292648 261310 45.0 - 10.7

Pittsburgh 676706 334563 305704 45.2 - 8.6

Cincinnati 503998 331285 296943 58.9 - 10.4

Newark 438776 273546 277140 63.2 + 1.3

Baltimore 949706 651154 620961 65.4 - 4.6

Milwaukee 871407 596974 594833 68.3 - 0.4

Philadelphia 2071605 1517550 1526006 73.7 + 0.6

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WHY HAVE THESE CITIES LOST POPULATION?

• Drivers of shrinkage

Suburbanization Loss of central (downtown) role

Regional migration/growth of the Sunbelt

De-industrialization

• Contributing factors

Federal housing policy

The Interstate highway system

Municipal and fiscal fragmentation

Racial conflict

SUBURBANIZATION IN METRO DETROIT 1950-2010

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

5000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

City

Metro

Suburbs

1950-1980SuburbanPopulation+1,814,787

1950-1980CityPopulation- 646,200

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THE EFFECTS OF SUBURBANIZATION

Cleveland

Youngstown

Canton

Lorain

Akron

153 KM●

●

●

●

●

NortheastOhio2011

REGIONAL MIGRATION(POPULATION GROWTH 1950-2010)

CAL+252%

ARIZ+391%

TEX+226% FLOR

+280%

IL+47% PA

+31%

NY+21%

United States +103%

NEV+1687%

MASS+40%

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CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING JOBS 1947-2007

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1947 1958 1967 1977 2007

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g w

ork

ers

(000

)

Detroit

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

MUNICIPAL FRAGMENTATION

Allegheny County Pennsylvania1.2 million population 130 separate municipalities

Pittsburgh

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WHAT ARE THE PRINCIPAL EFFECTS OF SHRINKAGE?

Increased poverty

Increased unemployment/lower labor force attachment

Lower educational and skill attainment

Weak housing market

Large-scale property abandonment

Reduced fiscal capacity/ability to deliver services

Overextended/deteriorated infrastructure

POVERTY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

UnitedStates

Camden Cleveland Detroit Gary

% below poverty level

% under 18 belowpoverty level

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EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

UnitedStates

Camden Cleveland Detroit Gary

% without highschool diploma

% with collegedegree or higher

Population aged25 and over

UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATIONAL LEVEL

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

DET CLE BUFF PITT USA

No HS diploma

BA or higher degree

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EDUCATIONAL DISPARITIES

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Cleveland Detroit Newark St. Louis Cincinnati

Jobs in city

Workers in city

White adults 25+

African-American adults 25+

CHANGE IN HOUSING INVENTORY 1990-2010 (IN THOUSANDS OF UNITS)CITY CATEGORY 1990 2010 ∆1990-2010 ∆% 1990-2010

Detroit Total DUs 410.0 349.2 - 60.8 - 14.8%

Occupied DUs 373.8 269.5 - 104.3 - 27.9%

Vacant DUs 36.2 79.7 + 43.5 + 120.2%

Cleveland Total DUs 224.3 207.5 - 16.8 - 7.5%

Occupied DUs 199.8 167.5 - 32.3 - 16.7%

Vacant DUs 24.5 40.0 + 15.5 + 63.3%

Dayton OH

Total DUs 80.4 74.1 - 6.3 - 7.8%

Occupied DUs 72.7 58.4 - 14.3 - 19.7%

Vacant DUs 7.7 15.7 + 8.0 + 103.8%

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HOUSING DATA FOR SELECTED SHRINKING CITIES

CITY Median sales price 2006

Median sales price 2011

Change 2006-2011

Vacancy rate 2010

Detroit $70000 $17500 - 75% 22.8%

Cleveland $49900 $25750 - 48% 19.3%

Gary $69160 $43092 - 38% 20.6%

HOUSES FOR SALE IN DETROIT

132 square meters€ 3650

200 square meters€ 6340

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VACANT LAND IN DETROIT

VACANT LAND IN DETROIT – A GROUND VIEW

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FISCAL STRESSDETROIT 2006-2012

POSITIONS2006-2007

POSITIONS 2012-2013

% CHANGE

Buildings & Safety

331 244 - 26%

Public Works 765 554 - 38%

EnvironmentalAffairs

57 Incorporated into Public Works

-100%

Fire 1536 1257 - 18%

Health 404 115 - 72%

Police 3641 2954 - 19%

Public Lighting 227 129 - 43%

Recreation 199 87 - 56%

FISCAL STRESSFLINT, MICHIGAN 2001-2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Police officers

Firefighters

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THE CENTRAL CHALLENGES

Creating a new export-oriented economic base

Restoring housing and neighborhood market demand

Rebuilding human and social capital & fostering social inclusion

KEY ISSUES 1

Creating a new export-oriented economic base: what can replace manufacturing?

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EDS AND MEDS? TECHNOLOGY?

OTHER ECONOMIC OPTIONS

V&M Star SteelYoungstown OH

Kayaking in theAllegheny RiverPittsburgh

Eastern MarketDetroit

Tiger StadiumDetroit

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KEY ISSUES 2

• How to restore housing and neighborhood market demand?• Capturing changing demographics: are downtowns

the neighborhoods of the future?

• What is the future of the traditional residential neighborhood?

• What role will immigration play?

• What will it take to recapture a share of regional demand?

Downtown St. Louis

Baltimore neighborhood

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KEY ISSUES 3• How to rebuild human capital and

foster social inclusion? • How to overcome adult educational and skill deficits?• Where will the jobs come from: can we create good jobs

for people without university degrees? • Can we create good neighborhoods for lower income

people? • How can minority communities be part of the decisions

about their cities’ future? • How can we foster balanced redevelopment from which

all social and economic groups benefit?