sholk molecular diagnostics presentation final.ppt for...
TRANSCRIPT
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
For CJ
who offered DudLess his last banana, not knowing when or if another would appear
DudLess translates the Travers(Long V.E. Day @ 19-1)
DudLess
August 2014
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
DudLess scans the odds offered on a 1 win bet
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Translates the odds into implied win probabilities
Horse # Horse name Implied win %
1 Commanding Curve 20.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 21.1 4.7%
2 Bayern 2.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 3.5 29.0%
3 Charge Now 32.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 33.8 3.0%
4 V.E. Day 19.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 20.5 4.9%
5 Viva Majorca 30.0 to 1.0 1.0 in 31.0 3.2%
6 Tonalist 2.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 3.7 27.4%
7 Wicked Strong 2.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 3.7 27.4%
8 Kid Cruz 12.3 to 1.0 1.0 in 13.3 7.5%
9 Ulanbator 86.3 to 1.0 1.0 in 87.3 1.1%
10 Mr Speaker 7.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.6 11.6%
Source: Equibase Check 119.9%
Takeout
16.6%
Horse # Horse name Implied win %
1 Commanding Curve 24.3 to 1.0 1.0 in 25.3 4.0%
2 Bayern 3.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.1 24.2%
3 Charge Now 39.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 40.5 2.5%
4 V.E. Day 23.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 24.6 4.1%
5 Viva Majorca 36.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 37.2 2.7%
6 Tonalist 3.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.4 22.9%
7 Wicked Strong 3.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.4 22.9%
8 Kid Cruz 14.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 15.9 6.3%
9 Ulanbator 103.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 104.6 1.0%
10 Mr Speaker 9.3 to 1.0 1.0 in 10.3 9.7%
Source: Equibase, DudLess' adjustments Check 100.0%
Actual odds on win bet Implied win probability
0% takeout odds on win bet Implied win probability
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Considers them relative to historical performance
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
And decides where to cast CJ’s last banana
1. Commanding Curve
2. Bayern
3. Charge Now
4. V.E. Day
5. Viva Majorca
6. Tonalist
7. Wicked Strong
8. Kid Cruz
9. Ulanbator
10. Mr Speaker
Total bananas
bet on all horses -Bananas taken from
win pool to cover
purses & track expenses-
Total bananas bet
on winning horse ÷Total bananas bet
on winning horse =Banana profit on a
successful win bet
100 - 16 - x ÷ x = y
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
The race is run
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
The truth comes true
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
DudLess eats
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
And CJ does too
Dear CJ,
When you’re offered win bet odds of 19-to-1 on a
horse that has won its last 3 races, is entered by a
trainer whose entrants win 31% of their races and is
guided by a jockey that wins 25% of his races…
…accept the offer!Love, DudLess
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Though you won’t win them all, DudLess bets…
Probability of 1 of 2
Jerkens entrants
winningx
Payoff returned with 1 win bet
upon Jerkens horse win + Probability of 1 of 9
other horses winning xPayoff upon 1 of 9 other
horses winning =Break-even expected
value over many races
31%/2 x α + (100% - 31%/2) x -1 = 0
α = ~5.5
Back-of-envelope fair value for a Jerkens horse win bet = ~5.5 to 1 odds
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
…you’ll DudLess
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
DudLess