shipperless & unregistered workgroup

Shipperless & Unregistered Workgroup

Wednesday 5th December 2012

Agenda Introduction

MPRN Creation Workgroup Modification update MPRN Creation Process change ~ Update MPRN’s set to DEad in error

Previous actions

Statistical Information Overall industry volumes ‘Churn’ figures & age profiles

Population cleansing – ‘Strawman’ update

End-User letter update

S&U Population ‘Pot’ Priorities

A.O.B.

MPRN creation Workgroup

Modification update (C.Warner)

MPRN Creation Process change Proposal update (D.Mitchell) Consultation questions

MPRN’s set to DEad in error

A.O.B.

Agenda

Work to scope/design ongoing since June’12

Consultation document published 28th November Via the Energy Networks Association

Also distributed via key industry bodies; Joint Office Local Authorities

Your views are essential – Opportunity to comment

MPRN Creation proposal

MPRN Creation proposal

Q1. What kind of impact do you think that this process change will have on speculative connections? (Speculative connections may include phased sites & units where the final usage is not known; in some cases gas supplies are installed but never used)

Q2. What are the anticipated Supplier time scales from first contact with the end user until a supply contract is in place?

Q3. Should ‘Assisted Connections’ be included in this process? Or are they considered out of scope due to the large number of ‘Assisted Connections’ requested by Local Authorities?

MPRN Creation proposal: Consultation questions

Q4. How will this revised process affect the customer experience?

Q5. Will this process affect shipper processes and systems? If so what are your expected timescales required to amended yoursystems?

Q6. Does the amended process have any impact on the systems and Resources of Xoserve?


Q7. Does this process cause any potential competition issues for any party effected by this proposal? If so how can they be addressed?

Q8. Does this change target the root cause of the problem or should additional measures (i.e. MAM obligations) be considered to ensure that a supply contract is in place before a meter is installed?

Q9. What implementation timescales do you expect will be required should this change be approved?


Previously raised due to impacts on Shipper processes Creation/Confirmation of new MPR Updating records Interface with EndUser / MAMs etc.

Xoserve only set to DEad at Shipper request (ISO contact)

Samples provided to DN’s for analysis Low volumes Updates to be shared with Workgroup

MPRN’s set to DEad in error

High level Isolation process

Xoserve Receive ISO Query

Xoserve Validate ISO Query

Xoserve Send for Site Visit and await response.

Xoserve receive Site Visit results

back from Network.

Is there a request to set to

DE?

Xoserve analyse and interpret

data.

Xoserve Amend status of MPRN:

to LI.

Have Network

confirmed that the

Service is DE?

Xoserve update Query

Management System and

send resolution to Shipper.

Xoserve analyse and interpret

data.







No Status Amendment

Required

Xoserve Amend status of MPRN:

to DE.

Is there a request to set to

LI?

Yes

No

No

No

No Status Amendment

Required

Yes

Yes




Previous actions

Ref. Description Action Status

127 All Distribution Network representatives to discuss possible future Xoserve end user letter exercises.

All DNs C/fwd

129 SGN to engage UIPs and other DNs by mid August in order to review the MPRN Creation Process proposal, and then to present the final proposal at September’s Workgroup meeting.

SGN C/fwd

130 CW to investigate the Networks’ responsibility to visit Unregistered sites. CW OPEN

131 Xoserve to investigate the feasibility of using the Withdrawal date when producing age profiles for Shipperless Sites

Xoserve OPEN

132 Xoserve to investigate the feasibility of presenting the statistics in a “Received, Cleared, Outstanding” format.

Xoserve OPEN

133 Xoserve to start work on a sample of 100 Aged Unregistered sites using on the agreed methods based on the straw man from Action 126

Xoserve OPEN

134 Xoserve to investigate the feasibility of reactivating the Planned (PL) Meter Point Status, so that new MPRNs are created as PL instead of Live (LI).

Xoserve OPEN

135 EM agreed to arrange industry consultation on the proposed MPRN Creation Process change, via the Energy Network Association (ENA).

EM OPEN

136 All to investigate the impact of the proposed MPRN Creation Process change on their organisations’ systems and processes and feedback any issues for the next Workgroup meeting.

All OPEN

137 All Networks to investigate examples of MPRNs set to DE in error. All DN’s OPEN

Statistical Information

Overall Industry volumesSep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Description

426 400 376 398 360 279 302 292

These reports are sent to specific Shippers & include sites where activity exists to suggest an intention to confirm i.e., Confirmation rejection, Meter asset update to the C&D store, ConQuest submission to create the MPRN or End User feedback.

TOTAL 14,957 14,834 14,845 15,023 15,138 15,263 15,445 15,767

With Meter6524

(43.36)6409

(43.20%)6331

(42.6%)6443

(42.9%)6442

(42.6%)6504

(42.6%)6591

(42.7%)6735 (42.7)

GSR 1,353 1,380 1,317 1,346 1,110 1,062 1,023 975

These contain sites which have previously been confirmed & the meter removed. Information provided by the Networks suggests either the existing meter is still on site or a new meter has been fitted. GSS are identified when a YES is found in the Live Supply Point? column.

GSS 890 917 903 1,015 1,003 919 845 113

4,657 4,748 4,657 4,781 4,957 4,985 4,977 4,781

1,397 1,175 1,408 1,199 1,291 1,290 1,387 1,433These contain MPRNs created on UK Link where no Shipper activity has been recorded and that remain unconfirmed.

32,022 32,303 32,653 33,329 33,758 34,307 34,903 35,524

These contain sites which can represent one of the following reasons; Vacant sites No Gas meter but live service Service still in planning stage

26,155 28,869 27,728 28,555 28,084 28,975 29,659 29,848Unconfirmed MPRNs with a created date <12 months. If not confirmed they will feed into the above categories & be issued to the industry.

80,967 83,709 82,984 84,631 84,698 86,161 87,696 88,620

Industry Unregistered and Shipperless Sites (Produced on a Bi-Monthly Basis)Unregistered Sites

Shipper Activity

Orphaned

This report is provided to the whole industry & indicates (following a response to the Shipper activity report) that a Shipper has no further interest in the MPRN or that no response is received within the period of production of the next Bi monthly report. This also includes sites where a service has been completed & in some instances a meter already installed.

Shipperless Sites - Shipper (PTS)

GSR - Not Registered on UK Link GSS - Registered on UK Link but without meter attachedShipperless Sites - Industry (SSP)

No Activity

Legitimately Unregistered

Meter Point created less than 12 months

TOTAL

Not included in Total Figures

Site churn

Total 15,767New This Month 269Removed This Month 0

Total 292New This Month 292Removed This Month 302


Total 1,433New This Month 1,433Removed This Month 1,387

Orphaned Sites - November 2012

Shipper Activity - November 2012

Legitimately Unregistered - November 2012

No Activity - November 2012

Total 975New This Month 157Removed This Month 205


Total 29,848New This Month 12,471Removed This Month 189

Less than 12 months - November 2012

PTS - November 2012

SSP - November 2012

Legitimately Unregistered: Age analysis

Legitimatley Unregistered: Age analysis

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Date

Co

un

t o

f M

PR

N's

Volume 116 31 58 422 1093 1294 2110 4475 7349 6162 3484 4683 4247

pre 2000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Orphaned sites: Age analysis

Orphaned Sites: Age Analysis

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Date

Co

un

t o

f M

PR

N's

Volume 335 536 819 958 1552 1418 1041 1072 1685 1878 1476 1552 1445

pre 2000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

SSP: Age analysis

SSP Age analysis

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Year of Withdrawal

Am

ou

nt

of

MP

RN

's

Volume 5 6 25 8 7 5 71 225 283 823 990 577 437 58

pre2000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PTS: Age analysis

SSP Age analysis

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Year of Withdrawal

Am

ou

nt

of

MP

RN

's

Volume 5 6 25 8 7 5 71 225 283 823 990 577 437 58

pre2000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Overall Industry volumes: Age analysis

Orphaned Legitimate

Year Volume % Volume %

Pre 2000 335 2.1% 116 0.3%

2000 536 3.4% 31 0.1%

2001 819 5.2% 58 0.2%

2002 958 6.1% 422 1.2%

2003 1,552 9.9% 1,093 3.1%

2004 1,418 9.0% 1,294 3.6%

2005 1,041 6.6% 2,110 5.9%

2006 1,072 6.8% 4,475 12.6%

2007 1,685 10.7% 7,349 20.7%

2008 1,878 11.9% 6,162 17.4%

2009 1,476 9.4% 3,484 9.8%

2010 1,552 9.8% 4,683 13.2%

2011 1,445 9.2% 4,247 12.0%

Total 15,767 100% 35,524 100%

AQ values (10years +)

Orphaned Legitimate

Year SSP (AQ) LSP (AQ) SSP (AQ) LSP (AQ)

Pre 2000 4,545,058 7,342,690 1,360,240 4,720,423

2000 9,456,533 3,364,449 578,215 0

2001 15,420,430 22,543,308 1,149,802 0

2002 17,797,603 16,825,608 7,656,705 33,552,728

Total 47,219,624 50,076,055 10,744,962 38,273,151

Overall Industry volumes: AQ values

SSP LSP

‘Shipper Activity’ 231 60

AQ value 4,680,666 22,101,063

‘Orphaned’ 12,881 2,887

AQ value 262,750,625 1,414,149,704

‘No activity’ 1,225 204

AQ value 25,743,814 535,688,577

‘Legitimate’ 29,529 5,710

AQ value 659,218,071 5,749,576,568

Total AQ 952,393,176 7,696,634,306

Key

Decrease

No change

Increase

Population cleansing

‘Strawman’

Proposal update

Increasing S&U population Since Sept’11 circa 7k more sites

Options to establish more accurate dataset Enabling improved focus where required Clearer data for AUGE

Workgroup agreed for defined methodology Production of ‘Strawman’ process

Background

Desktop investigation to determine bulk process

All Unregistered MPRNs>10 years old identified

Sample of 100 MPRNs selected

UK- Link examined for: nominations; failed confirmations; failed asset updates

Conquest examined for:MPRN Creation Request

DES examined for:CSEP Indicator

GB Address Manager and Post Office Website used to Validate Address

Internet Search Engines used to obtain additional

information

Local Authority Websites used to

check if site is occupied.

Shippers – ad hoc requests for

information.

Networks - ad hoc requests for

information.

MAMs – The sample would be provided to our existing MAM

contacts

UIPs - The sample would be provided to our existing MAM

contacts

MRA Site Visit End User Letters

Sample Selection

Xoserve System Checks

Internet Searches

External Communications

Further Actions

All Unregistered MPRNs>10 years old identified

Sample of 100 MPRNs selected

UK- Link examined for: nominations; failed confirmations; failed asset updates

Conquest examined for:MPRN Creation Request

DES examined for:CSEP Indicator

GB Address Manager and Post Office Website used to Validate Address

Internet Search Engines used to obtain additional

information

Local Authority Websites used to

check if site is occupied.

Shippers – ad hoc requests for

information.

Networks - ad hoc requests for

information.

MAMs – The sample would be provided to our existing MAM

contacts

UIPs - The sample would be provided to our existing MAM

contacts

MRA Site Visit End User Letters

Sample Selection

Xoserve System Checks

Internet Searches

External Communications

Further Actions

MPRNs will be set to DE if

No Action Required

Further action* will be deemed

necessary if

MPRNs will be set to EX if

Another Live MPRN exists on UK-Link

with the same address (Domestic

Sites Only)

The site has been identified as a

CSEP or IGT site

Another Live MPRN exists on UK-Link with an equivalent flat address (Flat 1

vs. Flat A)

It has been determined that the site has been

demolished

It has been determined that the service has been

removed

It has been determined that the service has been

replaced

It has been determined that the service exists but the meter has been removed

or no meter was ever fitted

It no conclusion can be drawn from investigations

OR OR

OR OR

The MPRN has a plot address and is

<5years old

OR

If a Nomination or Confirmation is received for

the MPRN.

* Further action may include End User Letters; MRA Site Visits or Network Site Visits tbc

Possible outcomes following investigation

Agree on scope of analysis Targeted the Orphaned population (100 oldest sites)

Agree on methodology Followed the steps agreed with Industry 19th Sept

Agree on confidence levels Shared output with DN’s and await feedback

Findings/updates to be shared via the Workgroup

Next steps

Detailed system analysis (100 oldest sites >10yrs)

High level ‘themes’; Flats & possible renovations Duplicates & Dead/Demolished Data conflict across systems

Agree if action can be taken without a site visit

Findings

Data Analysis Results

100 Aged MPRN's - Sample analysis

71%

14%

13%2%

Site visit

Dead

Extinct

Live

100 MPRN’s analysed

In 71% of cases a site visit is required Establish: MSN/MPR/Capable of passing gas/Supplier identity

13% Dead (property no longer exists)

14% Extinct (duplicate MPRN)

2% have subsequently been confirmed!

Findings

Recap…

Trial exercise undertaken in May'12 (100 sites)

20% of sites confirmed or resolved as duplicate MPRN's

Ongoing industry discussion re. benefit of further exercises

Recent dialogue with Ofgem/DN's/Xoserve to target issue

End User letters

Next steps…

'Strawman' desktop exercise encouraging ongoing option 30% resolved

Suggestion to further pursue desktop approach

Collaborative Xoserve/DN exercise Utilising central & local systems

Maintain commitment for ongoing focus & priority

End User letters

S&U Population ‘Pot’ Priorities

S&U Pot Priorities

Xoserve has assigned a priority ratings to each of the S&U pots

Two priorities have been assigned Initial priority; applied to the fresh datasets that are issued on a

bi-monthly basis. Secondary priority; applied on an ongoing basis, for continuous

work to reduce the overall population

The ratings were mainly based on the apparent ability to consume gas

Pot Descriptions and TrendsUnregistered Sites

Current Volume

12-month Trend

Difference Description

Shipper Activity 292 Down 68.54%

Reports are issued to the specific shippers containing MPRNs for which an activity has been identified. E.g. Confirmation rejection, Meter asset update to the C&D store, Conquest raised to create the M Number, End User. These reports only include MPRNs > 12 months from creation date.

Orphaned

With Meter

6,735 Up 3.13%This report is sent out to the whole industry. Records include MPRNs either following a shipper's response to the shipper activity report, that they have no further interest in the M Number, or where no response is received before the production of the next Bi monthly report. They include sites where a service has been completed and in some instances a meter already installed. This report only includes MPRNs > 12 months from creation date.

TOTAL 15,767 Up 5.14%


GSR

975 Down 27.94% These contain sites which have previously been confirmed with meter removed. Information provided by the Networks suggests either the existing meter still on site or a new meter has been fitted.

Shipperless Sites - Industry (SSP)

4,781 Down 2.93%

No Activity 1,433 Up 2.51%These contain meter points created on UK Link where no shipper activity has been recorded and that remain unconfirmed.


35,524 Up 9.86%These contain sites which can represent one of the following reasons: Vacant sites; No Gas meter but live service; Service still in planning stage


29,484 Up 12.37%These figures provide details of meter points that have not reached the first anniversary of their creation date and remain unconfirmed.

TOTAL 88,256 Up 8.64%

Not included in Total Figures

Initial Pot Priorities

Unregistered Sites Initial Priority Justification

Shipper Activity 1Records within this pot have been associated with a particular shipper. It is important that the shippers thoroughly investigate records issued to them as soon as possible while the inforamtion is "fresh" to ensure that they do not fall into the Orphaned Pot unnecessarily.

Orphaned

With Meter 3This section of the S&U population should be treated with priority as intelligence suggests that the site is capable of using gas, and a meter has been reported to be in situ.

TOTAL 5The remainder of the Orphaned Pot should be addressed as a second priority. However, it is recommended that this pot should be broken down further to form sub-pots defined by the record's original pot.


GSR

2

Records within this pot remain on the specific shippers' reports until they have confirmed the MPRN. They should be investigated as a high priority as the networks have identified that the site is capable of consuming gas, and that the meter on site is the one that the previous shipper has purported to have removed.


4Records within this pot should be investigated as a high priority as the networks have identified that the site is capable of consuming gas.

No Activity 6MPRNs in this pot have had no activity since their creation. Therfore it is not certain that gas is being consumed on these sites.


8

Recent analysis of the Legitimately Unregistered Population increased confidence that the MPRNs in this pot were correctly categorised.


7Previous analysis has shown that <80% of MPRNs are confirmed within 12 months of creation through normal means.

Secondary Pot PrioritiesUnregistered Sites

Overall Priority

Justification

Shipper Activity N/ARecords within this pot are automatically included in the Orphaned pot in the next reporting run if they are not confirmed or set to EX or DE.

Orphaned

With Meter iThis section of the S&U population should be treated with the highest priority as intelligence suggests that the site is capable of using gas, and a meter has been reported to be in situ.

TOTAL iiThe remainder of the Orphaned Pot should be addressed as a second priority. However, it is recommended that this pot should be broken down further to form sub-pots defined by the record's original pot.


GSR

iii Records within this pot remain on the specific shippers' reports until they have confirmed the MPRN.


iv Records within this pot remain on the reports until they have been confirmed.

No Activity N/ARecords within this pot are automatically included in the Orphaned pot in the next reporting run if they are not confirmed or set to EX or DE.


v

Recent analysis of the Legitimately Unregistered Population increased confidence that the MPRNs in this pot were correctly categorised.


viPrevious analysis has shown that <80% of MPRNs are confirmed within 12 months of creation through normal means.

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