shifting demographics: mapping the world population

22

United Nations Population Division

Shifting Demographics:Shifting Demographics:Mapping the World PopulationMapping the World Population

Hania ZlotnikHania ZlotnikDirectoraDirectora

United NationsUnited Nations

33


World population growth: 1750-2050World population growth: 1750-2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1975 2000 2025

2.5 billion

6.5 billion

9.2 billion

Billions

7.8 billion

10.8 billion


1 billion2 billion

120 years

12

5.5 billion

44


Growth rate, 1750-2050Growth rate, 1750-2050

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1975 2000 2025

Percentage

2.0

1.24

0.34


55


Increasing life expectancyIncreasing life expectancy: 1950-2050: 1950-2050

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042

Africa

Asia

Latin America

Northern America

Oceanía

Europe

World

Years

66

83

75

66

52

78


66


Life expectancy at birthLife expectancy at birth : 2005: 2005


77


Fertility levels: 1950-2050Fertility levels: 1950-2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042

Children per woman

Europe Northern America

Oceanía

Africa

Latin America

AsiaWorld

2.5

1.761.41

4.9

2.65


88


Children per woman: 2005Children per woman: 2005


99


As a result of these changes:As a result of these changes:

There is today great diversity in demographic There is today great diversity in demographic trends around the worldtrends around the world

The population of some countries is decreasing….The population of some countries is decreasing….

While that of other countries is growing very While that of other countries is growing very fast….fast….

1010


Population growth rate: 2000-2005Population growth rate: 2000-2005


1111


Population growth rate: 2045-2050Population growth rate: 2045-2050


1212


Population by major areaPopulation by major area

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Asia Africa Europe LatinAmerica

NorthernAmerica

1950 2005 2050

Billions

3.9

5.3

0.9

2.0

0.60.80.7

0.5

1313


Population percentage by major areaPopulation percentage by major area

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Asia Africa Europe LatinAmerica

NorthernAmerica

1950 2005 2050

Percentage

1414


The world is being transformed by The world is being transformed by increasing urbanizationincreasing urbanization

Between 1950 and 2005: Between 1950 and 2005:

The urban population increased by 2.4 billion persons, The urban population increased by 2.4 billion persons, equivalent to the population of the world in 1950equivalent to the population of the world in 1950

Between 2005 and 2050:Between 2005 and 2050:

The urban population is expected to increase by 3.2 The urban population is expected to increase by 3.2 billion, virtually all added to urban areas in developing billion, virtually all added to urban areas in developing

countriescountries

1515


Percentage urban in 2005 Percentage urban in 2005

1616


Percentage urban in 2030Percentage urban in 2030

1717


The world is also being transformed by The world is also being transformed by population ageingpopulation ageing

0-14

15-59

60-7980+

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%19

50

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Pop

ulat

ion

perc

enta

ge

United Nations – Population Division

1818


As the distribution by age changes, the As the distribution by age changes, the ratio of “workers” y to “dependants” ratio of “workers” y to “dependants”

also changesalso changes

Dependants: Children (0-14) y older persons Dependants: Children (0-14) y older persons (aged 65 or over)(aged 65 or over)

Workers: Persons aged 15 to 64Workers: Persons aged 15 to 64

Support ratio: Workers / DependantsSupport ratio: Workers / Dependants

1919


Demographic transitionDemographic transition

First stage Second stage Third stage

Fourth stage

Time

Su

pp

ort

rat

io

United Nations – Population Division

Reduction in infant mortality

Drop in fertility levels

Mortality drops and fertility stabilizes

Stability

2020


Support ratio: 1950-2050Support ratio: 1950-2050

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Europe

Africa

Latin America

Northern AmericaWorld

Asia

Oceania

Source: United Nations Population Division

2121


Median age, 2005Median age, 2005

2222


Median age in 2050Median age in 2050

2323


Increase of number of migrants by Increase of number of migrants by income groupincome group

57

1425 25

3321

26 23 28

91

Highincome

developed

Highincome

developing

Upper-middleincome

Lower-middleincome

Lowincome

1990 2005

Millions

2424


Population of working age in developed Population of working age in developed countries with and without migrationcountries with and without migration

Projected population aged 15-64 (medium variant)

600

700

800

900

(Mill

ion

s)

With

migration

Without

migration

104

million

2525


Number of persons aged 15 to 39 (billions)Number of persons aged 15 to 39 (billions)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2005 2025

0.42

1.9

0.37

2.1

2626


Annual number of migrants needed Annual number of migrants needed to maintain population aged 15 to 64 to maintain population aged 15 to 64

constantconstant

609

458

356 327

113

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Japan Germany Italy UnitedStates

UnitedKingdom

Constant 15-64

Net number of migrants (thousands)

2727


ConclusionsConclusions

The population will increase markedly in Africa and The population will increase markedly in Africa and Asia. It will likely decrease in Europe.Asia. It will likely decrease in Europe.

Africa and Asia will urbanize rapidly in the futureAfrica and Asia will urbanize rapidly in the future Population ageing is advanced in Europe and Northern Population ageing is advanced in Europe and Northern

America. Support ratios will drop significantly in America. Support ratios will drop significantly in Europe.Europe.

Population ageing will advance quickly in Asia and Population ageing will advance quickly in Asia and Latin America, with support ratios beginning to dropLatin America, with support ratios beginning to drop

Africa will remain relatively young.Africa will remain relatively young.

2828


ConclusionsConclusions

Over the next decades, the younger population Over the next decades, the younger population of developed countries will decrease while that of developed countries will decrease while that in developing countries will continue to growin developing countries will continue to grow

The economic and demographic imbalances The economic and demographic imbalances between developed and developing countries between developed and developing countries will continue to fuel migrationwill continue to fuel migration

United Nations Population DivisionUnited Nations Population Division2929

Population DivisionPopulation DivisionUnited NationsUnited Nations

www.unmigration.orgwww.unmigration.org

www.unpopulation.orgwww.unpopulation.org

For information relating to the For information relating to the High-level DialogueHigh-level Dialogue

shifting demographics: mapping the world population

Documents

urban population

worldthe population

age changes

urban areas

ratio of workers y

y older persons

developed countries

major areabillions3