HYPOTHESIS TESTING

HYPOTHESIS

It is a tentative prediction or explanation of two or more variables

The hypothesis is the most important mental tool the research has

It is important integral component of modern scientific research

Set up a hypothesis

Set u

p a

suit

able

si

gnif

ican

ce le

vel

Setting a test criteria

Doing

Com

putations

Making Decisio

ns

TYPES OF ERRORS:

Ho is True Correct Decision Type I Error

Ho is False Type II Error Correct Decision

Accept Ho Reject Ho

What is Exim Policy?

• It contains policies in the sphere of Foreign trade i.e. with respect to import & export from the country and more especially export promotion measures, policies and procedure related there to.

• Export means selling abroad and import as bringing into India, any goods and services

Objective of Exim Policy• Accelerating the country’s transition to a globally

oriented vibrant economy with a view to derive maximum benefits from expanding global market opportunities;

• Stimulating sustained economic growth • Enhancing the technological strength and

efficiency • Encouraging the attainment of internationally

accepted standards of quality • Providing consumers with good quality products

and services at reasonable prices.

General provisions regarding export import• Exports and Imports free unless regulated • Compliance with Laws • Interpretation of Policy • Procedure:• Exemption from Policy/ Procedure • Principles of Restriction • Restricted Goods • Terms and Conditions of a Licence• Importer-Exporter Code Number • Exemption from Bank Guarantee • Clearance of Goods from Customs

EXPORT PROMOTION MEASURES

• Policy measures

• Institutional set up.

• Import Facilitation for Export Production.

• Cash subsidies.

• Fiscal Incentives.

• Foreign Exchange Facilities.

• Export incentives

• Export production units

Import Facilitation for Export Production

• Export Promotion Capital Goods Scheme• Special Import Licences • Duty Free Licences under Duty Exemption Scheme • Duty free licences are issued as :• (1) Advance licence• (2) Advance Intermediate licence.• (3) Special Imprest licence.• (4) Licence for jobbing, repairing etc. for re-

export.• (5) Licence under export production programme.• (6) Advance Release Order.• (7) Back to Back Inland Letter of Credit.

Export Incentives

• Duty Exemption

• Duty Drawback Scheme

• DFRC (Duty free replenishment certificate)

• DEPB( Duty entitlement pass book)

• Deemed Exports

Export Production Units

• Export Oriented Unit (EOU)• Special Economic Zones (SEZ)• Software Technology Parks (STP)• Electronic Hardware Technology Parks (EHTP)

Cash subsidies

• Marketing development assistance• Air freight subsidy• Spices export promotion scheme• Jute externel marketing assistance• Financial assistance scheme agriculture

&meat exports• Financial assistance to marine products

exports

Fiscal incentives

• Exemption from payment of central excise duty & simplified procedure for clearance.

• Exemption from sales tax• Exemptions & deductions under income tax

act,1961.• Duty draw back Scheme (DDS)• Cash Compensatory Support ( CCS )• International Price Reimbursement Scheme

(IPRS)

Import control regime• 1956-57, restrictions on imports started as lot of imports

were there as such gov even had to import foodgrains for self fulfillment

• Imports were classified into• Banned items ,Canalised items ,Restricted items, OGL

• In 1966 ruppee was devalued by 36.5% By devaluation gov expressed the hope that the devaluation would lead to expansion in export earnings as indian goods will become cheaper in internatinal market on the other hands import would decline as price of imported goods would increase.

• Because of a rigid itemization of permissible imports, an element of inflexibility in the pattern of utilization of imports was introduced. The transferability of licenses among same and different industries was not permissible. This gave rise to an expanding black market in import licenses. Therefore, the import allocation system was so designed as to eliminate the possibility of all competition, either domestic or foreign. The Govt of India has liberalized the import regime from time to time. At present, practically all controls on import have been lifted. Under the new EXIM policy 2002-07.

Comparison of Pre 90’s & Post 90’s Exim Policy

Year Import(Cr.)

Export(Cr.)

Trade Bal.(Cr.)

1948-51 650 647 -3 Excess of Import due to-

•Pent-up demand of war.

•Shortage of food & raw material due to partition.

•Import of capital goods due to starting of hydro-electric & other projects.

1951-56 730 622 -108 Trade deficit was largely due to programmes of industrialization which gathered momentum and pushed up the imports of capital goods.

No improvement in exports.

Year Import(Cr.)

Export(Cr.)

Trade Bal.(Cr.)

1956-61 1080 613 -467 Excess of import due to setting of steel plants,heavy expansion & renovation on railways & modernization of many industries.

Export lower than occur in second plan which shows that export promotion drive did not materialize.

1961-66 1224 747 -477 Excess of import due to-

•Rapid industrialization needs capital goods as raw material.

•Defence needs had increased due to aggression by China & Pakistan.

•Need of foodgrains due to failure of crops in 1965-66.

Year Import(Cr.)

Export(Cr.)

Trade Bal.(Cr.)

1966-69

(Annual- plans)

5775 3708 -2067 Devaluation was resorted to essentially-

•To reduce volume of import.

•To boost export.

•Create favourable balance of trade and balance of payment.

1969-74 1972 1810 -162 As a consequence of import restriction policies with vigorous export promotion measures ,during 1972-73 the country had favourable balance of trade for first time since independence.

But several international factors pushed up the price of petroleum product,steel,fertilizers etc.results low magnitude of trade balance.

Year Import(Cr.)

Export(Cr.)

Trade Bal.(Cr.)

1974-79 5540 4730 -810 Significant increase in export during every year of this period.Export of coffee,tea,cotton fabrics etc.recorded substantial increase in this period.

But,Janta Government followed policy of haphazard import liberalization results

decline trade balance from 1977-78.

1980-85 14,986 9051 -5935 Decline in POL imports was more than by a big hike in non-POL imports as a consequence of import liberalization.

Consequently, huge trade balance.

Year Import(Cr.)

Export(Cr.)

Trade Bal.(Cr.)

1985-90 28,874 18,033 -10,841 Huge trade balance compelled the government to approach the World Bank/IMF for loan.

The government was also forced to apply brakes on the licensing policy of imports.

1990-92 45,522 38,300 -7222 In 1990-91,push was given to export,but as a consequence of Gulf war government failed to curb imports.

In1991-92, government introduced number of measures in trade policy allowing exim scripts,abolishing cash compensatory support(CCS) schemes as also a two-step devaluation of the rupee,but fail to boost up export.

Year Import(Cr.)

Export(Cr.)

Trade Bal.(Cr.)

1992-01 140740 118252 -22,488 In 1992-01,slow down in exports due to-

•Depressed nature of world markets.

•Saturation of developed countries market for electronic goods which are dynamic export sectors.

•Increased protectionism by industrialised countries in area of textile and clothing.

•Increasing competition from China & Taiwan.

•India underestimated the impact South-East Asian crisis

•Non-Tarrif barriers have been created by developed counties to slow down Indian exports.

•In 2000-01 export was largely due to rupee depreciation along with further trade liberalization,more openness to foreign investment in EOU sectors ike IT.

Year Import(US

$million)

Export(US

$million)

Trade Bal.(US $million)

2002 –03

2003-04

65422

80177

52512

64723

-12910

-15454

Rise in imports in 2002-03 was broadly based on oil imports,food &allied products(edible oil),capital goods.

Exim policy 2003-04gave massive thrust to exports by

•Duty free import facility for service sector upto earning 10lakh foreign exchange.

•Liberalization of Duty Exemption scheme.

Besides,all these measures trade balance in 2003-04 are high due to mainly on imports of POL products more.Currently, almost two-third of country crude oil requirements are imported.Besides import of POL, import of non POL items shot up by 17% in2002-03 to 26.2%in 2003-04.

Trade - On an All time High India’s total external trade in goods and

services grew by 41.5% in H12005-06 to US $ 153 billion. This is expected to go up to US $ 310 billion by the end of this year. This was just over US $ 74 billion in 1994.

The trade to GDP ratio, calculated at current prices, has risen to 29.36% in 2004-05 from 18.28% in 1993-94.

Economy is more Open than ever

before

Strong ExportGrowth

Exports have grown to US $ 57.05 billion during April-November 2005-2006. They are expected to grow at 26% during the current year to US$ 100 billion.

Strong Imports growth

Non-oil imports grew at over 28% during April - September 2005 led by demand for capital goods.

Strong Service Exports

Service Exports grew by 71% in 2004-05. India's IT-ITES exports have shown robust growth and are expected to grow by 32% this year to US $ 23 billion.

Source: Reserve Bank of India

Trade Trends ..India Exports - Goods and Services

0

50

100

150

200

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

02-03

03-04

04-05

05-06(A)

US

$ b

illi

on

Goods Services

India's Foreign Trade

050

100150200250300350

1984 1994 2004-05 2005-06 (A)

US$

mill

ion

Exports Imports Total Trade

Share of Asia

02040

6080

100120

140160180

96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05

US $

bill

ion

Asia Non Asia

Source: Reserve Bank of India

India Capital Good Imports

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05U

S $

bil

lio

n

Capital Goods Imports Total Imports