severe weather briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing
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Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday AM: Setup: Complicated Forecast! - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Severe Weather Severe Weather BriefingBriefing
1/24/20111/24/2011
www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing
Keith StellmanKeith StellmanWarning Coordination Warning Coordination
MeteorologistMeteorologistNational Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
OverviewWednesday Afternoon through Thursday AM:Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday AM:Setup:Setup:
Complicated Forecast!Complicated Forecast! Warm front surging northward from Gulf of MexicoWarm front surging northward from Gulf of Mexico Surface low developing along TX coast and heading Surface low developing along TX coast and heading
northeastnortheast Upper level system drawing near should pull warm Upper level system drawing near should pull warm
front northfront north Key in determining location of severe weather threat.Key in determining location of severe weather threat.
ImpactsImpacts HailHail (elevated supercells behind the front)(elevated supercells behind the front)
Damaging Winds Damaging Winds (ahead of the front the upper level system (ahead of the front the upper level system catches up)catches up)
TornadoesTornadoes (maximized threat east of surface low in vicinity of (maximized threat east of surface low in vicinity of warm front)warm front)
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Radar/Surface @ 1 PMRadar/Surface @ 1 PM
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Location of WarmFront at 1 PM
Big Picture - SatelliteBig Picture - Satellite
LL LLLL LLLL
CurrentCurrent
6 AM6 AM
6 PM 6 PM WedWed
SPC slight risk areaSPC slight risk area
HailHail
Damaging Winds/Isolated TornadoesDamaging Winds/Isolated Tornadoes
Tornado threat maximized along and Tornado threat maximized along and south of warm front (but especially along)south of warm front (but especially along)
Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability
3 PM 3 PM Forecast Forecast (Today)(Today)
Showers and Showers and elevated elevated thunderstorms thunderstorms surging northsurging north
Best instability Best instability remains southremains south
Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability
6 PM 6 PM Forecast Forecast (Today)(Today)
Showers and Showers and elevated elevated thunderstorms thunderstorms surging northsurging north
Possible small Possible small hail hail
Best instability Best instability remains southremains south
Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability
9 PM Forecast 9 PM Forecast (Today)(Today)
Showers and Showers and elevated elevated thunderstorms thunderstorms surging north surging north into AR/OKinto AR/OK
Possible small Possible small hail hail
Best instability Best instability remains southremains south
Note that only light showers will be possible in this area
Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability
6 AM 6 AM Forecast Forecast (Wed)(Wed)
Line of showers Line of showers developing along developing along elevated frontelevated front
Best instability Best instability remains remains south..but south..but creeping into creeping into Deep East TXDeep East TX
Note that only light showers
will be possible in this area
Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability
Noon Forecast Noon Forecast (Wed)(Wed)
Showers and Showers and storms continuestorms continue
Strong storms Strong storms shifting through shifting through SE TX into Deep SE TX into Deep East TXEast TX
Best location for Best location for possible severe possible severe weatherweather
Note that only light showers
will be possible in this area
Moderate InstabilityStrong InstabilityHigh Instability
Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability
3 PM Forecast 3 PM Forecast (Wed)(Wed)
Showers and storms Showers and storms continue shifting continue shifting easteast
Strong storms Strong storms shifting through SE shifting through SE TX into Deep East TX into Deep East TXTX
Best location for Best location for possible severe possible severe weather (12P-3P)weather (12P-3P)
Note that only light showers
will be possible in this area
Moderate InstabilityStrong InstabilityHigh Instability
Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability
6 PM Forecast 6 PM Forecast (Wed)(Wed)
Showers and Showers and storms continue storms continue shifting eastshifting east
Strong storms Strong storms shifting through shifting through Western LAWestern LA
Best location for Best location for possible severe possible severe weather (3-6PM)weather (3-6PM)
Note that only light showers
will be possible in this area
Moderate InstabilityStrong InstabilityHigh Instability
Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability
9 PM Forecast 9 PM Forecast (Wed)(Wed)
Showers and Showers and storms continue storms continue shifting eastshifting east
Strong storms Strong storms shifting through shifting through Eastern LAEastern LA
Best location Best location for possible for possible severe weather severe weather (6-9PM)(6-9PM)
Note that only light showers
will be possible in this area
Moderate InstabilityStrong InstabilityHigh Instability
Computer Model Rainfall Computer Model Rainfall ForecastForecast (Hi Res WRF)(Hi Res WRF) Heavier in Heavier in
some some spots… spots… especailly especailly East TXEast TX
Shown as Shown as best/worst best/worst casecase
Trying to Trying to show heavy show heavy in in convective convective areasareas
Official Rainfall ForecastOfficial Rainfall Forecast
Heaviest Heaviest in in Central/Central/East TX East TX where where mid-level mid-level front will front will be be stalled stalled tonighttonight
Summary Tonight through Thu AM:Tonight through Thu AM:
Complicated forecast due to moving warm front Complicated forecast due to moving warm front and surface low developing..tracking into area.and surface low developing..tracking into area.
Likely that a line of storms develops ahead of the Likely that a line of storms develops ahead of the main cold front overnight into Wed AM…moves main cold front overnight into Wed AM…moves east during day.east during day.
Reduces overall rainfall amountsReduces overall rainfall amounts Area along and south of I-20 forecast to have highest Area along and south of I-20 forecast to have highest
shear/instability…increasing severe threatshear/instability…increasing severe threat Greatest threats:Greatest threats:
1.1.Damaging winds (along and south of warm front)Damaging winds (along and south of warm front)2.2.Tornadoes (along and south of warm front)Tornadoes (along and south of warm front)3.3.Hail (along and north of warm front)Hail (along and north of warm front)4.4.Heavy rain threat confined to Tyler->Mt. Pleasant-Heavy rain threat confined to Tyler->Mt. Pleasant-
>De Queen>De Queen **If the front can move further north, tornado **If the front can move further north, tornado
threat increases north of I-20 into NE TX/South threat increases north of I-20 into NE TX/South AR.AR.
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:
Thursday 1/26 @ 10 AMThursday 1/26 @ 10 AM
www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingbriefing
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana