severe weather briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

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Severe Weather Severe Weather Briefing Briefing 1/24/2011 1/24/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefin www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefin g g Keith Stellman Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Warning Coordination Meteorologist Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

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Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday AM: Setup: Complicated Forecast! - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Severe Weather Severe Weather BriefingBriefing

1/24/20111/24/2011

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith StellmanKeith StellmanWarning Coordination Warning Coordination

MeteorologistMeteorologistNational Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Page 2: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

OverviewWednesday Afternoon through Thursday AM:Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday AM:Setup:Setup:

Complicated Forecast!Complicated Forecast! Warm front surging northward from Gulf of MexicoWarm front surging northward from Gulf of Mexico Surface low developing along TX coast and heading Surface low developing along TX coast and heading

northeastnortheast Upper level system drawing near should pull warm Upper level system drawing near should pull warm

front northfront north Key in determining location of severe weather threat.Key in determining location of severe weather threat.

ImpactsImpacts HailHail (elevated supercells behind the front)(elevated supercells behind the front)

Damaging Winds Damaging Winds (ahead of the front the upper level system (ahead of the front the upper level system catches up)catches up)

TornadoesTornadoes (maximized threat east of surface low in vicinity of (maximized threat east of surface low in vicinity of warm front)warm front)

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Page 3: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Radar/Surface @ 1 PMRadar/Surface @ 1 PM

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Location of WarmFront at 1 PM

Page 4: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Big Picture - SatelliteBig Picture - Satellite

LL LLLL LLLL

CurrentCurrent

6 AM6 AM

6 PM 6 PM WedWed

Page 5: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

SPC slight risk areaSPC slight risk area

HailHail

Damaging Winds/Isolated TornadoesDamaging Winds/Isolated Tornadoes

Tornado threat maximized along and Tornado threat maximized along and south of warm front (but especially along)south of warm front (but especially along)

Page 6: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability

3 PM 3 PM Forecast Forecast (Today)(Today)

Showers and Showers and elevated elevated thunderstorms thunderstorms surging northsurging north

Best instability Best instability remains southremains south

Page 7: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability

6 PM 6 PM Forecast Forecast (Today)(Today)

Showers and Showers and elevated elevated thunderstorms thunderstorms surging northsurging north

Possible small Possible small hail hail

Best instability Best instability remains southremains south

Page 8: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability

9 PM Forecast 9 PM Forecast (Today)(Today)

Showers and Showers and elevated elevated thunderstorms thunderstorms surging north surging north into AR/OKinto AR/OK

Possible small Possible small hail hail

Best instability Best instability remains southremains south

Note that only light showers will be possible in this area

Page 9: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability

6 AM 6 AM Forecast Forecast (Wed)(Wed)

Line of showers Line of showers developing along developing along elevated frontelevated front

Best instability Best instability remains remains south..but south..but creeping into creeping into Deep East TXDeep East TX

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Page 10: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability

Noon Forecast Noon Forecast (Wed)(Wed)

Showers and Showers and storms continuestorms continue

Strong storms Strong storms shifting through shifting through SE TX into Deep SE TX into Deep East TXEast TX

Best location for Best location for possible severe possible severe weatherweather

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Moderate InstabilityStrong InstabilityHigh Instability

Page 11: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability

3 PM Forecast 3 PM Forecast (Wed)(Wed)

Showers and storms Showers and storms continue shifting continue shifting easteast

Strong storms Strong storms shifting through SE shifting through SE TX into Deep East TX into Deep East TXTX

Best location for Best location for possible severe possible severe weather (12P-3P)weather (12P-3P)

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Moderate InstabilityStrong InstabilityHigh Instability

Page 12: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability

6 PM Forecast 6 PM Forecast (Wed)(Wed)

Showers and Showers and storms continue storms continue shifting eastshifting east

Strong storms Strong storms shifting through shifting through Western LAWestern LA

Best location for Best location for possible severe possible severe weather (3-6PM)weather (3-6PM)

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Moderate InstabilityStrong InstabilityHigh Instability

Page 13: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Hi Res Model (WRF)Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability(forecast Radar/Instability

9 PM Forecast 9 PM Forecast (Wed)(Wed)

Showers and Showers and storms continue storms continue shifting eastshifting east

Strong storms Strong storms shifting through shifting through Eastern LAEastern LA

Best location Best location for possible for possible severe weather severe weather (6-9PM)(6-9PM)

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Moderate InstabilityStrong InstabilityHigh Instability

Page 14: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Computer Model Rainfall Computer Model Rainfall ForecastForecast (Hi Res WRF)(Hi Res WRF) Heavier in Heavier in

some some spots… spots… especailly especailly East TXEast TX

Shown as Shown as best/worst best/worst casecase

Trying to Trying to show heavy show heavy in in convective convective areasareas

Page 15: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Official Rainfall ForecastOfficial Rainfall Forecast

Heaviest Heaviest in in Central/Central/East TX East TX where where mid-level mid-level front will front will be be stalled stalled tonighttonight

Page 16: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Summary Tonight through Thu AM:Tonight through Thu AM:

Complicated forecast due to moving warm front Complicated forecast due to moving warm front and surface low developing..tracking into area.and surface low developing..tracking into area.

Likely that a line of storms develops ahead of the Likely that a line of storms develops ahead of the main cold front overnight into Wed AM…moves main cold front overnight into Wed AM…moves east during day.east during day.

Reduces overall rainfall amountsReduces overall rainfall amounts Area along and south of I-20 forecast to have highest Area along and south of I-20 forecast to have highest

shear/instability…increasing severe threatshear/instability…increasing severe threat Greatest threats:Greatest threats:

1.1.Damaging winds (along and south of warm front)Damaging winds (along and south of warm front)2.2.Tornadoes (along and south of warm front)Tornadoes (along and south of warm front)3.3.Hail (along and north of warm front)Hail (along and north of warm front)4.4.Heavy rain threat confined to Tyler->Mt. Pleasant-Heavy rain threat confined to Tyler->Mt. Pleasant-

>De Queen>De Queen **If the front can move further north, tornado **If the front can move further north, tornado

threat increases north of I-20 into NE TX/South threat increases north of I-20 into NE TX/South AR.AR.

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Page 17: Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

Thursday 1/26 @ 10 AMThursday 1/26 @ 10 AM

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingbriefing

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana