setting the stage for: biosphere, chemistry, climate interactions
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![Page 1: SETTING THE STAGE FOR: BIOSPHERE, CHEMISTRY, CLIMATE INTERACTIONS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3d5d1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
SETTING THE STAGE FOR: BIOSPHERE, CHEMISTRY, CLIMATE INTERACTIONS
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TOPICS FOR TODAY
1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts
2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections
3. Climate change observed & predicted
4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change
5. How climate change may change atmospheric
composition
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STRATOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY…BASIC MECHANISM
Chapman Mechanism: Source of ozone (O2 + hv)Sink of ozone (O+O3)
predicts too much ozone!
Other ozone sinks: catalytic loss cycles:1. HOx: from H2O2. NOx: from N2O / lightning3. ClOx: from CFCs
H2Oslow
slow
fastOH HO2
Antarctic ozone depletion involves special case of ClOx catalyzed O3-destruction where (cold) PSCs return Cl from reservoir to catalyst
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TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
O3
OH HO2
h, H2ONO
H2O2
CO, CH4, RH
NO2
h HNO3
OH, M VOC limited
NOx limited
CO, HC, NOx
O3
O2 h
Deposition
STRATOSPHERE
TROPOSPHERE8-18 km
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PARTICULATE MATTER (PM, AEROSOLS) SOURCES AND PROCESSES
SO2H2SO4
NH3
VOCs
NOx
RCO…
HNO3
nucleation coagulation
condensation
carbonaceouscombustion
particlessoil dustsea salt
..
...
.oxidation cycling
ultra-fine(<0.01 m)
fine(0.01-1 m)
cloud(1-100 m)
combustionbiospherevolcanoes
agriculturebiosphere
coarse(1-10m) scavenging
precursor gases
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TOPICS FOR TODAY
1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts
2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections
3. Climate change observed & predicted
4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change
5. How climate change may change atmospheric
composition
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TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE / ATMOSPHERE INTERFACE
Monson and Holland, 2001
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OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERFACE
Monson and Holland, 2001
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TOPICS FOR TODAY
1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts
2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections
3. Climate change observed & predicted
4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change
5. How climate change may change atmospheric
composition
![Page 10: SETTING THE STAGE FOR: BIOSPHERE, CHEMISTRY, CLIMATE INTERACTIONS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3d5d1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND
100-year trend (1906–2005):
0.74°C ± 0.18°C
rate of warming doubled in later half of centuryLand warming faster than ocean
IPCC, 2007
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OBSERVED TREND IN WATER VAPOUR
IPCC, 2007
ocean
global UT
Total column water vapourhas increased over the global
oceans by 1.2 ± 0.3%per decade (1988 to 2004)
UT water vapour also increasing, where of radiative importance
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OBSERVED TREND IN PRECIPITATION
IPCC, 2007
Long-term trends in precipitation amounts from 1900 to 2005 have been
observed in many large regions:↑ eastern North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia↓ Sahel, the Mediterranean,southern Africa and parts of southern Asia
Also evidence for an increase ofintense tropical cyclone activity in the N
Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases in tropical SSTs.
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OBSERVED CHANGES IN SNOW COVER, SEA ICE AND SEA LEVEL
IPCC, 2007
1961 to 2003 global mean sea level rise: 1.8 ± 0.5 mm yr–1
thermal expansion contribution: 0.42 ± 0.12 mm yr–1 melting of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets: 0.7 ± 0.5 mm yr–1
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EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS
IPCC, 2007
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PREDICTED TEMPERATURE TREND
IPCC, 2007
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PREDICTED PRECIPITATION TREND
Increases in the amount of
precipitation are very likely at high
latitudeswhile decreases are
likely in most subtropical land
regions
IPCC, 2007
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UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
“equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4.5°C, with a best estimate value of about 3°C.”
Climate Sensitivity: the warming to be expected if CO2 concentrations were sustained at double PI (~ 550ppm)
IPCC, 2007
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TOPICS FOR TODAY
1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts
2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections
3. Climate change observed & predicted
4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change
5. How climate change may change atmospheric
composition
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DIRECT RADIATIVE FORCING AGENTS
IPCC, 2007
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AEROSOL “INDIRECT EFFECT” FROM CLOUD CHANGES
Clouds form by condensation on pre-existing aerosol particles (“cloud condensation nuclei”) when RH>100%
clean cloud (few particles):large cloud droplets• low albedo• efficient precipitation
polluted cloud (many particles):small cloud droplets• high albedo (1st indirect)• suppressed precipitation (2nd indirect)
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SCATTERING vs. ABSORBING AEROSOLS
Scattering sulfate and organic aerosolover Massachusetts
Partly absorbing dust aerosoldownwind of Sahara
Absorbing aerosols (black carbon, dust) warm the climate by absorbing solarradiation
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AEROSOL RADIATIVE FORCING: UNCERTAINTIES
IGAC, 2006
Forward calculations: models of aerosol physics and chemistryInverse calculations: forcing to match model simulations with observed T changes
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TOPICS FOR TODAY
1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts
2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections
3. Climate change observed & predicted
4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change
5. How climate change may change atmospheric
composition
![Page 24: SETTING THE STAGE FOR: BIOSPHERE, CHEMISTRY, CLIMATE INTERACTIONS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3d5d1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT STRATOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY?
Chapman Mechanism: Source of ozone (O2 + hv)Sink of ozone (O+O3)
predicts too much ozone!
Other ozone sinks: catalytic loss cycles:1. HOx: from H2O2. NOx: from N2O / lightning3. ClOx: from CFCs
H2Oslow
slow
fastOH HO2
Antarctic ozone depletion involves special case of ClOx catalyzed O3-destruction where (cold) PSCs return Cl from reservoir to catalyst
![Page 25: SETTING THE STAGE FOR: BIOSPHERE, CHEMISTRY, CLIMATE INTERACTIONS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3d5d1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Nitrogen oxide radicals; NOx = NO + NO2
combustion, soils, lightningMethanewetlands, livestock, natural gasNonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)vegetation, combustion, industryCO (carbon monoxide)combustion, VOC oxidation
O3
O2h
O3
OH HO2
h, H2O
Deposition
NO
H2O2
CO, VOC
NO2
h
STRATOSPHERE
TROPOSPHERE
8-18 km
Troposphericozone
precursors
HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY?
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HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PM?
SO2H2SO4
NH3
VOCs
NOx
RCO…
HNO3
nucleation coagulation
condensation
carbonaceouscombustion
particlessoil dustsea salt
..
...
.oxidation cycling
ultra-fine(<0.01 m)
fine(0.01-1 m)
cloud(1-100 m)
combustionbiospherevolcanoes
agriculturebiosphere
coarse(1-10m) scavenging
precursor gases
![Page 27: SETTING THE STAGE FOR: BIOSPHERE, CHEMISTRY, CLIMATE INTERACTIONS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3d5d1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOSPHERE-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM
Zepp et al., 2003