sesame 2000 -2010

SESAME2000-2010

Cindy Bae (18214072)Elly Jang (25693094)Vicky Wu (15039076)

Ye(Laura) Zhang (83280123) Amelia Zhu (37438090)

SURVIVALSEEDS

2

OUTLINEOFSESAME• Introduction• Sesame World Market Trend - Production, Supply, Demand - Price Pattern - Market Concentration and Thickness of the Market • Market Analysis - Supply and Demand Shock - Case Study Countries: Ethiopia, China, Japan • Conclusion

INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION

3

Calendar


Activity Sep Oct Nov Dec MarFebJan Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Land clearing & Preparation

Seeding/Sawing

Weed and Pest Control

Harvesting

Threshing

4

SESAMEPROFILE

Growing Condition: sandy loam soil with pH 5.5 – 8.0 area below 1,250 meters above sea leveltemperature above 20 C rainfall from 500 – 650 mms

Growing Distribution:Developing countries produce 98% of world sesame seed, because harvesting sesame is labor intensive


5

WHERESESAMEGROWS


EthiopiaSudan

Uganda

ChinaIndia

Burma

6

SESAMEPROFILESesame Usage:Food (oil, seasoning), Pharmaceutical and Cosmetics

Health effect: High in Vitamin E & B and Low in Cholesterol High Anti-OxidantLowering Blood PressureBone and Respiratory HealthCancer Prevention

Different type: Oil Grade Sesame (White)Food Grade Sesame (Black)Sesame with higher oil content is considered of higher grade


7

SESAMEMARKET


World Production VS Supply VS Demand

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

Production

Supply

Demand

Growth Ratio, 2000-2010Production 1.075 = 8%

Supply 1.114 = 11%

Demand 1.117 = 12%

Demand grows more rapidly than supply and production

8

Top 5 Exporters Sesame Seed Real Price PatternSESAMEMARKET2000-2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Real Price - Main ExportersIndia

Sudan (former)

Ethiopia

Nigeria

China

Year

$/tonne


http://medicinezine.com/news/fao-food-price-index-ffpi/

9

Top 5 Importers Sesame Seed Real Price PatternSESAMEMARKET2000-2010


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Real Price - Main Importers China

Japan

Turkey

Republic of Korea

Syrian Arab Republic

Year

$/tonne

http://medicinezine.com/news/fao-food-price-index-ffpi/

10

BASELINERATIO2000-2010

Top 5 Exporters Price Growth Ratio Food Price Index Growth RatioIndia 1.199429 = 20%

1.131868059 = 13%Sudan (former) 1.211999 = 21%Ethiopia 1.12072 = 12%Nigeria 1.13141 = 13%China 1.197077 = 20%

Top 5 Importers Price Growth Ratio Food Price Index Growth Ratio China 1.19384 = 20%

1.131868059 = 13%Japan 1.175218 = 18%Turkey 1.257159 = 26%

Republic of Korea 1.191829 = 19%Syrian Arab Republic 1.11697 = 12%


Sesame price had the same pattern with food price index, but increased rapidly

11

SESAMESEED2000


Main producers

Tonne Main Exporters

Tonne MainImporters

Tonne

China 811819 Sudan (former) 209949 Japan 164713

India 517800 India 183306 Egypt 85919

Myanmar 295515 China 103326 Republic of Korea 70118

Sudan (former) 282000 Myanmar 34400 United States of America 49062

Uganda 97000 Nigeria 30200 China 37149

%top producers/world 79%

%top exporters/world 76%

%top importers/world 62%

World 2535731 World 736800 World 658917

%production traded: 736800 / 2535731 = 29%

12

SESAMESEED2008


%production traded: 906549 / 3465615 = 29%

Main producers


Tonne MainImporters

Tonne

Myanmar 853390 India 194365 China 234044

India 640000 Ethiopia 130977 Japan 185105

China 586701 Myanmar 110000 Turkey 80194

Sudan (former) 350000 Sudan (former) 105541 Republic of Korea 63949

Ethiopia 186772 Nigeria 91400 Syrian Arab Republic 43456





13

SESAMESEED2010


Main producers


Tonne MainImporters

Tonne

India 893000 India 321771 China 420635

Myanmar 880000 Ethiopia 228039 Japan 161433

China 587947 Nigeria 140800 Turkey 102058

Ethiopia 260534 Sudan (former) 138000 Republic of Korea 77747

Sudan (former) 248000 United Republic of Tanzania 65708 Syrian Arab

Republic 52028





%production traded: = 1231737 / 3931636 = 31%

RATIO2000-2010


2000 2008 2010

Producer CR(%top producers/world)

79% 76% 73%

Exporter CR(%top producers/world)

76% 70% 73%

Importer CR (%top producers/world)

62% 66% 70%

%production traded 29% 29% 31%

• Neither perfect thin nor thick market Thin (10%) < Sesame (30%) < Thick (50%) Moderate well traded; main producers are also main exporters ;market is concentrated; less price volatility

15

MARKETANALYSIS


World Price ↑

World Supply (Quantity) ↑

Technology

Land Use

Policy

Oil Price

(2008)

World Demand (Quantity) ↑↑

Income Econom

ical Crisis

Awareness of

Health

16

OILPRICE


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

IndiaSudan (former)EthiopiaNigeriaChina

Year

$/tonne

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

China

Japan

Turkey

Republic of Korea

Syrian Arab Republic

Year

$/tonne

High oil price in 2008 affected the high price in world sesame price.

Real Price - Main Exporters

Real Price - Main Importers

17

CHANGEINGDP


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

World Demand for Sesame

Sesame

YEAR

TON

As the income increased, food demand including sesame increase.

18

BYPRODUCTEFFECT


The sesame seed world demand shows a similar pattern with sesame oil demand

19INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION

EXPORTERS

• MAJOR CHANGE • COUNTRIES

ETHIOPIA

IMPORTERS

• MAJOR CHANGE • COUNTRIES

CHINA• JAPAN

20

MAJOREXPORTERS


SESAME SEEDSMAJOR EXPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS

2000 2008 2010

Ranked in Order by Countries

Exported Market Share

(%)



(%)



(%)

Sudan (Former) 28.49% India 21.44% India 26.12%India 24.88% Ethiopia 14.45% Ethiopia 18.51%China 14.02% Burma 12.13% Nigeria 11.43%

Myanmar 4.67% Sudan (Former) 11.64% Sudan (Former) 11.20%Nigeria 4.10% Nigeria 10.08% United Republic of

Tanzania 5.33%

Top 3 67.40% Top 3 48.02% Top 3 56.07%

Top 5 76.16% Top 5 69.75% Top 5 72.61%

21

MAJOR CHANGE ON EXPORTERS


WORLDMARKET

India (Stable) Large Land Usage + Low Productivity

Sudan (Decreased) Reduced Land Usage + Low Productivity; Market Share: 28.49% 11.20% Ethiopia (Increased) Market Share: 18.51%

China (Decreased) Market Share: 14.02%

22

IMPORTERSOFETHIOPIA


SESAME SEEDS2005 2011


Exported Market Share (%)


Exported Market Share (%)

Japan 26.11 China 41.22United States 25.92 Turkey 21.59

Egypt 19.53 Israel 13.22Jordan 10.68 Jordan 7.75Greece 8.45 Greece 6.50

Saudi Arabia 2.63 Saudi Arabia 4.28Lebanon 1.91 Yemen 2.22

Netherland 1.39 United States 1.47Switzerland 1.32 Other 1.75

Other 2.07 TOTAL 100TOTAL 100

23

REASONS FOR CHANGE

1. Target Market: Low Value Export Markets a. Japan: strict standard on quality and food safetyb. USA & Europe: high food safety standards (organic certification) for

bakery applicationsc. Substitute effect of Cotton seed (Profitable for farmers, 90% oil)

2. Strategic Policy: d. ECX (Ethiopia Commodity Exchange from 2008) e. Currency Depreciation (Positive correlation between export volume and

nominal exchange rate)3. Competitor: Sudan

f. Access to sea portg. Policy reason: Sudan benefits further from membership in the Pan-Arab

free trade area.


ETHIOPIA

24

MAJORIMPORTERS


SESAME SEEDSMAJOR IMPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS

2000 2008 2010


Imported Market

Share (%)


Imported Market

Share (%)


Imported Market

Share (%)

Japan 25.00% China 25.35% China 36.06%

Egypt 13.04% Japan 20.05% Japan 13.84%

South Korea 10.64% Turkey 8.69% Turkey 8.75%

United States 7.45% South Korea 6.93% South Korea 6.67%

China 5.64% Syrian Arab Republic

4.71% Syrian Arab Republic

4.46%

TOP 3 48.68% TOP 3 54.09% TOP 3 58.65%

TOP 5 61.76% TOP 5 65.72% TOP 5 69.78%

25

MAJOR CHANGE ON IMPORTERS


Japan (Decreased) Market Share: 25.00% 13.84% China (Increased) Market Share: 5.64% 36.06%

WORLDMARKET

26

CHINA


CHANGE IN IMPORT/EXPORT PATTERNS


1. Planting areaa) Poor Weather

2. Highest Productivitya) Increased R&Db) Improved Technologyc) Increased Labor Input

3. Different types of gradea) Import Oil Grade (White)b) Export Food Grade (Black)

CONSUMPTION >> PRODUCTION

CHINAECONOMIC & TECHNOLOGICAL

28

EXPORTERSOFCHINA


POLICY & REGULATION

Exporters 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Market Share (%)

World 124908 210873 168883 249375 387610 48.5

1 Ethiopia 66995 109601 65398 57241 188143 9.8

2 Tanzania 14129 9460 10107 12066 37931 9.6

3 Mozambique 2609 5181 9786 25085 37078 9.0

4 Myanmar 4288 2500 17457 66595 34714 7.2

5 Sudan 19398 54722 13944 14219 27842 4.2

6 India 8557 10097 35820 48138 16234 2.8

No Tariff for African countries

29

EXPORTERSOFJAPAN


SESAME SEEDS2005 2009


Imported Market Share (%)


Imported Market Share (%)

China 26.23 Nigeria 22.28Nigeria 19.94 Paraguay 16.57

Guatemala 10.61 Burma 9.59Tanzania 7.09 Tanzania 9.10Paraguay 5.56 China 8.02

Burma 4.67 Bolivia 7.48Burkina Faso 4.56 Guatemala 6.56

Ethiopia 4.02 Burkina Faso 6.50Pakistan 3.08 Turkey 3.19Sudan 2.72 Sudan 3.17


1. No Local Production, but High Consumption of Sesame Seed

2. High quality oil for different usagesa. Food, Cosmetics, Pharmaceutical & Medication

Usage3. Main Exporter: Nigeria

a. High Quality & High Oil Contentb. Minimum Barriers to Trade between Japan & Nigeria

4. POLICY & REGULATIONa. No tariff on sesame seed imports

JAPANREASONS FOR CHANGE

31

MARKETANALYSIS


World Price ↑

World Supply (Quantity) ↑

Technology

Land Use

Policy

Oil Price

(2008)

World Demand (Quantity) ↑↑

Income Economical Crisis

Awareness of Health

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Real Price - Main Exporters

IndiaSudan (former)EthiopiaNigeriaChina

$/tonne

Year2000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Real Price - Main Importers

ChinaJapanTurkeyRepublic of KoreaSyrian Arab Republic

$/tonne

Year

32

TAKE AWAY MASSAGE


Sesame market is filled with potential; it is definitely a market

that’s worth investing in.

33

References


• http://www.atfp.org.ae/English/studies/Sudan-tp/sdntp-sesame2011.pdf• http://faostat.fao.org/site/291/default.aspx• http://www.ipms-ethiopia.org/content/files/Documents/publications/

MscTheses/FinalThesis_KindieAysheshm.pdf• http://www.unep-unctad.org/cbtf/events/kampala5/day2/23-Sesame

%20The%20under-exploited%20organic%20oil%20seed%20crop%20paper%20Ol.pdf

• http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1efcbcc3-a8d6-436f-9b20-d6f54e7cde34%40sessionmgr110&vid=8&hid=119

• http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1efcbcc3-a8d6-436f-9b20-d6f54e7cde34%40sessionmgr110&vid=14&hid=119

• http://www.tcboostproject.com/_resources/resource/NEEP%20Sesame%20Market%20Intelligence%20Report.pdf

• http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2012wesp_prerel.pdf