Valuing the Bundles: a UW Libraries Perspective

Tim JewellDirector, Information Resources and

Scholarly Communication

ER&L Conference, Austin TXFeb. 2, 2010

2007: “From Shoeboxes to Mashups:ERMs and Decision Support”

Shoebox “Data Elements”

JournalCall NumberPriority (1, 2 or 3)PriceLocationDuplicated?SelectorFundFaculty consultedOther Selectors Consulted

Collection Development Context• Financial

– Chronic budget pressure– Increased importance of

accountability and evidence• Market

– E-journal “packages”– Licensing issues

• Cancellation limits• Long-term access/archiving

– Publisher consolidations• Organizational

– the end of “rugged individualism?”

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

Serials Expenditures (+340%) CPI (+89%)Monograph Expenditures (+87%) Monograph Unit (+46%)Monographs Purchased (+12%)

Perc

ent C

hang

e

CPI (+89%)

“Mashup” Data Elements• “Local” Journal Metrics

– Cost/payment– Usage, Cost per use– ILL use– Faculty data (Publications, Citations, Requests, Priority judgments)

• Global Metrics– Retail/list price– ISI Impact Factor– Emerging metrics (Journal Cost-effectiveness, Eigenfactor, UKSG usage

factor, etc.)• Others

– Fund code, selector– Package information (Publisher, cancellation limits, subscribed vs.

unsubscribed, ongoing access rights, archiving via LOCKSS or Portico, etc.)

What reports and comparisons?• Different for types of resources

– Databases– Journals

• Journal to Journal Comparisons• Package Comparisons

– E-books• Different levels of analysis

– “Selector” or Department– “Fund Group” or Broad Area– Campus– University– Consortium

• Trends?

2009 Financial Crisis and UW Libraries • UW budget cuts– 13.5% reduction (1.5% rescission + 12% cut)– Branch libraries closed, staff reductions, etc.– Materials budget cuts (~20% purch. power loss)

• Complex, 3-campus system serving wide range of research, teaching (biomed to int’l studies)

• UW Resources Budget: 79% Serials/21% Monographs

• Shift to e-access (UW @ ~55%) w/licenses

Complex Serials Review Process• Phase One– Reduction targets set, subscription lists generated– Departments contacted, cancellation lists identified– User input on proposed cancellations via survey

• Phase Two (overlapped with end of Phase One)– Publisher negotiations via consortia– Cancellation implications for “bundles” assessed

• For both, supplemental data made available:– Article downloads, cost per use– ISI Impact Factor, Eigenfactor– UW-authored publications & citations in published work

Phase One: Fund-Level Review

Using Access to Create a Serials Decision Database

Presented at the Charleston Conference, November 6, 2009

Hana LevayInformation Resources Librarian

University of Washington

Project Steps• Gathered data (cost, use, impact factor,

package info, license terms, etc.)• Exported table, added cost per use column,

imported back to Access• Created final table• Generated spreadsheets by fund code– .xls format– .pdf (printable) format

Phase 2: Data for Bundle/Package Value Review

• With and without “unsubscribed” titles• Article downloads– Cost per use– “Adjusted” cost per use

• ISI Impact Factor (Sciences & Social Sciences)• Eigenfactor (ditto,mostly)• UW-authored publications (ditto)• UW citations in published work (ditto)

Major journal publishers and costs

Profit/Non-Profit Journal Publisher Pricing Comparisons

(source: JournalPrices.com)

Non-Profit For-Profit Ratio

Mean Journal Price $ 642.78 $ 1,837.88 2.86

Mean Price per Article $ 7.98 $ 24.20 3.03

Mean Price per Citation$ 12.73 $ 39.55 3.11

E-journal Bundling and Access

Elsevier Springer Wiley/Blackwell Sage0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

UnsubscribedSubscribed

Bundles and Cancellation Limits

Elsevier Wiley Blackwell Springer Sage $-

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

$1,800,000

2008 ExpenditureEst. ValueProposed CancellationsCancel Limit

Bundles Being Compared

• American Chemical Soc.• American Inst. Of Physics• Cambridge Univ. Press• Elsevier• Johns Hopkins Univ. Press

(Project Muse)• Nature, Science• Oxford University Press

• Sage• Springer/Kluwer• Taylor & Francis

– No UW “bundle” purchased, so individual titles can be freely cancelled

• University of Chicago Press• Wiley/Blackwell

Estimating E-journal Bundle Values:1• “Cost per use” example:– UW Paid $4.4M for 2,686,489 article downloads– Avg. CPU = $1.64 – Est. value of bundle w/100K downloads = $164K

• % of estimated value paid– If paid $100K, $100K/$164K = 61% (“good”)– If paid $200K, $200K/$164K = 122% (“bad”)

Estimating E-journal Bundle Values: 2• Estimated value as % of $ spent for “totals”

“Eigenfactor” example:– UW Paid $4.4M for 63.9 “Eigenfactors”– Avg. Cost/Eigenfactor = $88,955– Est. value of bundle w/10 “eigenfactors” =

$889.5K• % of estimated value paid– If paid $500K, $500K/$889.5K = 57% (“good”)– If paid $1M, $1M/$889.5K = 113% (“not good”)

Trend Lines for All Metrics

Universi

ty of C

hicago

AIP (Amer.

Inst.

Of Physi

cs)

Scien

ce

Annual Revi

ews

ACS

BioOne ("O

ne")

Cell Pres

s

Oxford

Universi

ty Pres

s

Nature

Projec

t Muse

Blackw

ell ST

M

Cambrid

ge Unive

rsity

Press

IOP (Insti

tute of P

hysics)

Duke Unive

rsity

Press

Elsevi

er Sci

ence

Direct

Wiley

Blackw

ell HSS

Sprin

ger Sage

Taylor &

Fran

cis0.00%

100.00%

200.00%

300.00%

400.00%

500.00%

600.00%

700.00%

800.00%

CPU % PaidAdj CPU % PaidIF % PaidEigenfactor % PaidUW Cites % PaidUW Articles % PaidAvg. % Value Paid

Bundle Averages: 2008

Universi

ty of C

hicago

AIP (Amer.

Inst.

Of Physi

cs)

Scien

ce

Annual Revi

ews

ACS

BioOne ("O

ne")

Cell Pres

s

Oxford Unive

rsity

Press

Nature

Projec

t Muse

Blackw

ell ST

M

Cambrid

ge Unive

rsity

Press

IOP (Insti

tute of P

hysics)

Duke Unive

rsity

Press

Elsevi

er Sci

ence

Direct

Wiley

Blackw

ell HSS Sag

e

Sprin

ger

Taylor &

Fran

cis0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

150.00%

200.00%

250.00%

300.00%

350.00%

400.00%

450.00%

% of Value Paid

Cost per Use

Universi

ty of C

hicago

AIP (Amer.

Inst.

Of Physi

cs)

Scien

ce

Annual Revi

ews

ACS

BioOne ("O

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Cell Pres

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Oxford Unive

rsity

Press

Nature

Projec

t Muse

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Cambrid

ge Unive

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Press

IOP (Insti

tute of P

hysics)

Duke Unive

rsity

Press

Elsevi

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ence

Direct

Wiley

Blackw

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Sprin

ger Sage

Taylor &

Fran

cis0.00%

100.00%

200.00%

300.00%

400.00%

500.00%

600.00%

700.00%

800.00%

CPU % PaidAdj CPU % PaidAvg. % Value Paid

Impact Factor, Eigenfactor & Averages

Universi

ty of C

hicago

AIP (Amer.

Inst.

Of Physi

cs)

Scien

ce

Annual Revi

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ACS

BioOne ("O

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Oxford

Universi

ty Pres

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Nature

Projec

t Muse

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Cambrid

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IOP (Insti

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Duke Unive

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Wiley

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Taylor &

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cis0.00%

100.00%

200.00%

300.00%

400.00%

500.00%

600.00%

700.00%

800.00%

IF % PaidEigenfactor % PaidAvg. % Value Paid

Costs per UW Citation, Article, Avg.

Universi

ty of C

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Of Physi

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Annual Revi

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Taylor &

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cis0.00%

100.00%

200.00%

300.00%

400.00%

500.00%

600.00%

UW Cites % PaidUW Articles % PaidAvg. % Value Paid

Bundling Comparison ResultsMore Cost-Effective• University Presses

– Chicago– Cambridge – Oxford– Johns Hopkins

• Annual Reviews• Nature, Science• American Chemical Soc.• American Inst. Of Physics

Less Cost-Effective• Elsevier• Wiley/Blackwell• Springer/Kluwer• Sage• Taylor & Francis

– No UW “bundle” purchased, so individual titles can be freely cancelled

Selected Bundle Details

CPU % Paid Adj CPU % Paid IF % Paid Eigenfactor % Paid

UW Cites % Paid

UW Articles % Paid

Avg. % Value Paid

0.00%

100.00%

200.00%

300.00%

400.00%

500.00%

600.00%

700.00%

800.00%

Elsevier Science DirectWileyBlackwell HSSBlackwell STMSpringerSageTaylor & Francis

Practical Implications?• Confirmed informal assessments– Value of some bundles was high• Retained• Disallowed individual title cancellations

– Value of others was low• Talking points with publishers• One bundle (Springer) dropped• Focus on others for future renegotiation

Another Application:Estimating “Add-on Collection” Value

Factor Additional “Avg. Cost Per” Est. Value

Impact Factor 500 $575 $287,500

Eigenfactor 2 $68,823 $137,646

UW Articles 100 $1,158 $115,800

UW Citations 3,000 $39 $117,000

Further Questions• Disciplinary Differences and Metrics• Metric inter-correlations• Replication/validation• “Local” Eigenfactor?• Variation or Stability over time – use 5 years of data?

• Construct a value index?