sept 1, 2017, southbank, brisbane the reforms needed to ...end poverty for all 2. end hunger for all...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Reforms Needed to Build an
Ecological EconomyRobert Costanza• Professor and VC’s Chair in Public Policy
Crawford School of Public Policy
Australian National University
Canberra ACT 0200, Australia
• Co-Editor in Chief, Solutions (www.thesolutionsjournal.org)
Sept 1, 2017, Southbank, Brisbane
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Human influence on the earth system is now so large, that a new geologic
epoch (the Anthropocene) has begun. We now live in a “Full World”
Business as usual is not an option
To create a sustainable and desirable
Anthropocene, we need to think and act differently
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VisionTools &Analysis
Systems thinkingand Modelling
ImplementationIncluding societal therapy
Sustainableand Desirable
Future
How the world isHow we would
like it to be
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EconomyEnvironment
= Nature Economy
Society
Environment
(the rest of Nature)Society
Empty World View Full World View
Nature = the whole system
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Huber, Lenton, and Schellnhuber, in Richardson et al. 2011
The world
is a
complex,
non-linear,
adaptive
system,
with
thresholds,
tipping
points, and
surprises
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PLANETARY BOUNDARIES: THERE ARE
FUNDAMENTAL ECOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS
Rockström, J., et al. 2009.
A safe operating space for
humanity. Nature 461:472-
475
Steffen, W., J. Rockström,
and R. Costanza. 2011.
How Defining Planetary
Boundaries Can Transform
Our Approach to Growth.
Solutions. Vol 2, No. 3, May
2011
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We need a third movie…
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We need a third movie…
A sustainable and desirableeconomy-in-society-in-the rest of nature
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food
energy
water
leisure
participation
health
community
education
fairness
income
security
identity
freedomecoservices
Elements
of well-being
& Quality of
Life
The Sustainable
and Desirable
“doughnut”(after: K. Raworth. 2012. A safe
and just space for humanity: can
we live within the doughnut?
Oxfam International)
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Integrated Questions/Goals:
• Ecologically Sustainable Scale
• Socially Fair Distribution
• Economically Efficient Allocation
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TRANSFORMING OUR WORLD:
THE 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
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Eco
log
ical
Eco
no
mic
s
Fra
mew
ork
UN
SD
Gs
Overarching Goal:A prosperous, high quality of life that is
equitably shared and sustainable
Natural
Capital/Ecosyste
m Services
Sustainable Scale:
Staying within planetary
boundaries
Social
Capital/Commun
ity
(Surveys)
Fair Distribution:
Protecting capabilities for
flourishing
Net Economic
Contribution
(GPI 2.0)
Efficient Allocation:
Building a living economy
6.Water &
sanitation
for all 13. Urgent
action on
climate
change
15.Conserve
terrestrial
ecosystems
1.End
poverty
for all2.End
hunger
for all
3.Ensure
healthy
lives for
all 4.Ensure
equitable
quality
education
for all
5.Achieve
gender
equality
10. Reduce
inequality
within and
among
countries
14. Conserve
marine
ecosystems
16.Promote
justice and
accountable
institutions 17. Strengthen
global
partnerships
7.Ensure
access to
sustainable
energy 8.Promote
inclusive
economic
prosperity
9.Build resilient
infrastructure
11.Build
resilient
and
sustainable
cities
12.Ensure
sustainable
consumption
patterns
167 Targets, 300+ Indicators
The relationship of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to the framework of ecological economics and the
overarching goal of a sustainable, equitable and prosperous system. (Costanza et al. 2016. Modelling and measuring
sustainable wellbeing in connection with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Ecological Economics. 130:350–355.
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Labor
Land
Economic
Process
Cultural
Norms and
Policy
Individual
Utility/welfare
Consumption
Improvement
Education,
Training,
Building
Investment
Property rights
Private Public
Capital
(Built)
“Empty World” Vision of the Economy
Research
Goods
and
Services
GDP
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Human Capital EconomicProductionProcess
GoodsandServices
EvolvingCulturalNorms andPolicy
Well Being(Individual andCommunity)
Consumption(based on changing,adaptingpreferences)
Education, training,
research.
Building
Investment(decisions about, taxescommunity spending,education, science andtechnology policy, etc., basedon complex propertyrights regimes)
Individual Public
GDP
Wastes
Common
Ecologicalservices/amenities
negative impacts on all forms of capital
Restoration,
ConservationNatural Capital
Built Capital
Complex propertyrights regimes
SolarEnergy
SocialCapital
Waste heat
Institutional
rules, norms, etc.
Materially closed earth system
“Full World” Vision of the Whole System
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From: Costanza, R. B. Fisher, S. Ali, C. Beer, L. Bond, R. Boumans, N. L. Danigelis, J. Dickinson, C. Elliott, J. Farley, D. E. Gayer, L.
MacDonald Glenn, T. Hudspeth, D. Mahoney, L. McCahill, B. McIntosh, B. Reed, S. A. T. Rizvi, D. M. Rizzo, T. Simpatico, and R. Snapp. 2007.
Quality of Life: An Approach Integrating Opportunities, Human Needs, and Subjective Well-Being. Ecological Economics 61: 267-276
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Built
Capital
Human
Capital
Sustainable
Human
Well-Being
Ecosystem
Services
Natural Capital
Social
CapitalInter-
action
X From: Costanza, R., R. de Groot, P.
Sutton, S. van der Ploeg, S.
Anderson, I. Kubiszewski, S. Farber,
and R. K. Turner. 2014. Changes in
the global value of ecosystem
services. Global Environmental
Change 26:152-158.
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NATURE VOL 387 15 MAY 1997
The value of the world’s
ecosystem services and
natural capitalRobert Costanza, Ralph d’Arge, Rudolf de Groot, Stephen Farber,
Monica Grasso, Bruce Hannon, Karin Limburg, Shahid Naeem, Robert
V. O’Neill, Jose Paruelo, Robert G. Raskin, Paul Sutton & Marjan van
den Belt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
For the entire biosphere, the value (most
of which is outside the market) is
estimated to be in the range of US$16–54
trillion (1012) per year, with an average of
US$33trillion per year.
2nd most cited article in the Ecology/Environment area according
to the ISI Web of Science with more than 6,000 citations
Valuing
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…we estimated the loss of eco-services from 1997 to 2011 due to land use change at
$4.3–20.2 trillion/yr.
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(From: Balmford, A., A. Bruner, P. Cooper, R. Costanza, S. Farber, R. E. Green, M.
Jenkins, P. Jefferiss, V. Jessamy, J. Madden, K. Munro, N. Myers, S. Naeem, J. Paavola,
M. Rayment, S. Rosendo, J. Roughgarden, K. Trumper, and R. K. Turner 2002.
Economic reasons for conserving wild nature. Science 297: 950-953)
Costs of expanding and
maintaining the current global reserve
network to one covering 15% of the
terrestrial biosphere and 30% of the
marine biosphere
Benefits (Net value* of ecosystem
services from the global reserve
network)
*Net value is the difference between the value of
services in a “wild” state and the value in the
most likely human-dominated alternative
=
=
Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature
$US 45 Billion/yr
$US 4,400-5,200 Billion/yr
Benefit/Cost Ratio = 100:1
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www.trucost.com
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http://www.thefifthestate.com.au/articles/ken-
henry-on-advancing-australias-natural-
capital/82531
“Natural capital is not a footnote
in a business plan, it is a core
asset on the balance sheet.
That’s true for an individual
business; and it is true also for
the nation.”
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Fair distribution is essential to quality of life
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Source: Deaton, 2008.
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a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) measures “everything
except that which makes life worthwhile”.
Robert F. Kennedy 1968
.
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Goal
BasicFramework
Non-environmentallyadjusted measures
Environmentallyadjusted measures
AppropriateValuationMethods
___________
Marketed
value ofmarketed goods
and servicesproduced and
consumed in aneconomy
GNP(Gross National
Product)
GDP(Gross Domestic
Product)
NNP(Net National Product)
NNP’(Net National Product
including non-produced assetts)
Market values
EconomicIncomeWeak
Sustainability
1 + non-marketed goods
and servicesconsumption
ENNP(Environmental NetNational Product)
SEEA(System of
EnvironmentalEconomic Accounts)
1 + Willingnessto Pay BasedValues (see
Table 2)
___________
StrongSustainability
2 + preserveessential natural
capital
SNI(Sustainable National
Income)
SEEA(System of
EnvironmentalEconomic Accounts)
2 + ReplacementCosts,+
ProductionValues
Economic Welfare
value of the wefareeffects of income and
other factors(including
distribution,household work, loss
of natural capitaletc.)
MEW(Measure of Economic
Welfare)
ISEW(Index of SustainableEconomic Welfare)
3 +ConstructedPreferences
HumanWelfare
assessment ofthe degree towhich human
needs arefulfilled
HDI(Human
Development Index)
HNA(Human NeedsAssessment)
4 +ConsensusBuildingDialogue
A range of goals for national accounting and their corresponding frameworks,measures, and valuation methods
from: Costanza, R., S. Farber, B. Castaneda and M. Grasso. 2000. Green national accounting: goals and methods. Chapter in: Cleveland, C. J., D. I. Stern and R. Costanza (eds.) The nature of economics and the economics of nature. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, England (in press)
GPI(Genuine Progress
Indicator)
SWB(Subjective Well-
Being)
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Indicator UnitsIndic
atorsExplanation
Area
coverageTime
Genuine Progress
Indicator (GPI)$ 26
Personal Consumption Expenditures weighted by income distribution, with volunteer and
household work added and environmental and social costs subtracted.
17 countries
+ regions
1950-
present
Genuine Savings $ 5Level of saving after depreciation of produced capital; investments in human capital; depletion
of minerals/energy/forests; and damages from air pollutants are accounted for
140
countries1970-2008
Inclusive Wealth $ 8 Asset wealth including, built, human, and natural resources 20 countries 1990-2008
Australian Unity Well-
Being IndexIndex # 14 Annual survey of various aspects of well-being and quality of life Australia
2001-
present
World Values Survey Index # 100's Periodic (5 so far) survey of a broad range of social, environmental, and economic variables 73 countries 1981-2008
Gallup-Healthways
Well-Being IndexIndex # 39
Annual survey in six domains: live evaluation, physical health, emotional health, healthy
behavior, work environment, and basic assets
50 states in
US
2008-
present
Gross National
HappinessIndex # 33
In-person survey in nine domains: psychological well-being, standard of living, governance,
health, education, community vitality, cultural diversity, time use, ecological diversity Bhutan 2010
Human Development
Index (HDI)Index # 4 Index of GDP/person, spending on health and education, and life expectancy
177
countries
1980-
present
Happy Planet Index Index # 3 HPI = subjective well being * life expectancy / ecological footprint153
countries3 yrs
Canadian Index of
Well-BeingIndex # 80
Includes community vitality, democratic engagement, education, environment, population,
leisure, living standards, and time useCanada
1994-
present
National Well-Being
IndexIndex # 5
proxies for built, human, natural and social capital with weights based on regression with
subjective well-being56 countries 1 yr
OECD Better Life
IndexIndex # 25
Includes housing, income, jobs community education, environment, civic engagement, health,
life satisfaction, saftey, and work-life balance
36 OECD
countries1 yr
Well-Being of Nations Index # 63 63 indicators in 20 domains weighted and ranked180
countries1990-2000
Sustainable Society 150
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http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/
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Top 30
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Bottom 30
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From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global
Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68
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From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond GDP: Measuring and
Achieving Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68
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Source:
Kubiszewski, I., R.
Costanza et al. 2013.
Beyond GDP:
Measuring and
Achieving Global
Genuine Progress.
Ecological Economics
93:57-68
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GPI /capita for the 17 countries for which it has been estimatedFrom: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine
Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68
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From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond
GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine
Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68
Economic growth Un-Economic growth
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To create a sustainable and desirable
economy-in-society-in-the rest of nature
requires:
•Breaking our addiction to the "growth at all
costs" economic paradigm, to fossil fuels, and
to over-consumption
•Envisioning a more sustainable and desirable
future that focuses on quality of life
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Motivational Interviewing (MI) is one of the most
effective therapies for treatment of substance addictions
Based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their
goals, motives, and futures.
MI suggests that there are four basic principles that
underlie successful therapies.
In a societal context, these basic MI principles can be
summarized as:
1. Engaging: building relationships with diverse
stakeholders to enable change talk
2. Focusing: developing shared goals among those
stakeholders
3. Evoking: helping stakeholders identify motivations for
positive change
4. Planning: helping stakeholders move from goals to
actual change
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Focus on GDP growth
Focus on Well-being
From: Kubiszewski I., R. Costanza, S. Anderson, and P. Sutton. 2017. The Future of Ecosystem Services: Global Scenarios and
National Implications. Ecosystem Services. 26:289-301.
Market ForcesThe market knows best
Inequality not addressed
Fortress WorldEveryone for themselves
Limited Governance
Policy ReformNeed planning and government
Equity maintained
Great TransitionWe’re all in this together
Governance at many levels
Stewardship and sharing
CommunityIndividualism
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Market Forces
Com
mu
nityIn
div
idu
ali
sm
Focus on GDP growth
Focus on Well-being
Fortress World Great Transition
Policy Reform
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www.anuscenarioplanning.com
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A no-growth
disaster
Source: Victor, P. 2008. Managing Without Growth, Edward Elgar.
A no-growth disasterA better low/no-growthpositive economy
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A no-growth
disaster12 things we need to change
to create a better world
New meanings
and measures
of success
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A no-growth
disaster
Limits on materials,
energy, wastes,
and land use
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
More meaningful
prices
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
More durable,
repairable
products
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
Fewer
status goods
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
More informative
advertising
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
Better screening
of technology
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
More efficient
capital stock
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
More local,
less global
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
Reduced
inequality
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
Less work,
more leisure
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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A no-growth
disaster
Education
for life,
not just work
12 things we need to change
to create a better world
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VisionTools &Analysis
Systems thinkingand Modelling
ImplementationIncluding societal therapy
Sustainableand Desirable
Future
How the world isHow we would
like it to be
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www.asap4all.com
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www.theSolutionsJournal.orgOnline and Print; Hybrid peer-reviewed academic journal and popular magazine; Uses a more participatory and
transdisciplinary review process; Focuses on seriously creative dialog to solve complex problems in an integrated way
Editors-in-Chief: Robert Costanza, Ida Kubiszewski, Lorenzo Fioramonti Associate Editors: Jacqueline McGlade, David Orr
Editorial Board: Gar Alperovitz, Ray Anderson, Vinya Ariyaratne, Robert Ayres, Peter Barnes, Bill Becker, Lester Brown, Ernest Callenbach, Alexander Chikunov, Cutler Cleveland, Raymond Cole, Rita Colwell, Bob Corell, Herman Daly, Thomas Dietz, Josh Farley, Jerry Franklin, Susan Joy Hassol, Paul Hawken, Richard Heinberg, Jeffrey Hollender, Buzz Hollling, Terry Irwin, Jon Isham, Wes Jackson, Tim Kasser, Tom Kompas, Frances Moore Lappe, RikLeemans, Wenhua Li, Tom Lovejoy, Hunter Lovins, Manfred Max-Neef, Peter May, Bill McKibben, William Mitsch, Mohan Munasinghe, Norman Myers, Elinore Ostrom, Kristín Vala Ragnarsdóttir, Bill Rees, Wolfgang Sachs, Peter Senge, Vandana Shiva, Anthony Simon, Gus Speth, Larry Susskind, David Suzuki, John Todd, Mary Evelyn Tucker, Alvaro Umaña, Sim van der Ryn, Peter Victor, Mathis Wackernagel, John Xia, and Mike Young
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Papers mentioned in this presentation can be downloaded from:
www.robertcostanza.comThank You
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Research Themes1. Integrated, Dynamic Analysis and Modelling of Socio-Ecological Systems:How do we better understand, model, value and manage our complex, interdependent
systems of humans and the rest of nature over multiple space and time scales? • the dynamics and spatial patterns of natural capital assets, ecosystem services, and ecosystem health in
terrestrial and marine systems.
• social and cultural capital (rules, norms, markets, institutions, etc.) and the complex interconnections and
dynamics among the parts of the system.
2. Measuring Well-Being: How do we measure human and environmental well-being in a more integrated way,
including built, human, social and natural capital assets and their interactions and services?• integrating knowledge from human psychology, economics, ecology, sociology, and other fields.
• moving well beyond GDP as a measure of progress
• build on the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals process.
3. The Future We Want: How do we engage the full range of stakeholders in envisioning and designing more
sustainable and desirable futures?• behavioral economics experiments, stakeholder workshops, scenario planning exercises with subsequent
public opinion surveys, integrated games, and other approaches.