sep 6th, rio de janeirointernet: as of tomorrow phonephone econo financ econo financ educeduc...

Sep 6th, Rio De JaneiroSep 6th, Rio De Janeiro

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

1876: Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH

• ”The telephone would be used only to inform people of arrival of telegrams."

-- 15 % Penetration-- 2 Days Walk for 1 Billion people

New York 1891,New York 1891,Broadway/John Street

Analog Communication

PhonePhoneEconoFinancEconoFinanc

EducEducTrans-Port-ation

Trans-Port-ation

Agri-cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

PhoneInfra

PhoneInfra

BCASTInfra

BCASTInfra

Internet: as of Yesterday

PhonePhone EconoFinancEconoFinanc

EducEducTrans-

portationTrans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

Phone Infra

InternetBCAST

InfraBCAST

Infra

Internet: as of Today


EducEducTrans-

portationTrans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

Phone Infra

InternetBCAST

InfraBCAST

InfraInternet Infra

(fiber, cable &wireless)

Internet: as of Tomorrow


EducEducTrans-

PortationTrans-

PortationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

Internet

Internet Infrastructure(fiber, cable, and wireless)Internet Infrastructure

(fiber, cable, and wireless)

Phone Infra

BCA

ST Infra

Internet Infrastructurefor digital communication society

PhonePhone EconoFinancEconoFinanc

EducEducTrans-

portationTrans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

InternetInternet(Integrated) Internet Infrastructure(Integrated) Internet Infrastructure

A testbed is VERY important!

IPv4: Not enough IP addresses and growing requirements

CableCable

IPv4IPv4

Tans-portationTans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureEcono

FinanceEcono

FinanceEducEducPhonePhone

TVRadioTV

Radio

OpticalFiber

OpticalFiber

WirelessWireless SatelliteSatellite

IPv6: The Internet Infrastructure

CableCableOpticalFiber

OpticalFiber

WirelessWireless SatelliteSatellite

IPv6

Trans-portationTrans-

portationEcono

FinanceEcono

Finance

TVRadioTV

RadioPhonePhone EducEduc Agri-

cultureAgri-

culture

Perc

enta

ge o

f Ow

ners

hip

Perc

enta

ge o

f Ow

ners

hip

100100

8080

6060

4040

2020

00

ElectricitElectricityy

(1873)(1873)TelephonTelephon

ee(1876)(1876)

AutomobileAutomobile(1886)(1886)

TelevisioTelevisionn

(1926)(1926)RadioRadio(1905)(1905)

VCRVCR(1952)(1952)

MicrowaveMicrowave(1953)(1953)

PCPC(1975)(1975)

InternetInternet(1975)(1975)

1001008080606040402020 120120

Years Since IntroductionYears Since Introduction

ARPANET DEMONSTRATIONJohannesburg, South Africa, 1974

X

under

1 G 2 G 3 G 10 * 4 10 * 8 10 * 10 Professionals Innovators Everyone Email, Ftp WWW Wireless, Streaming Media 9.6 k 56 k 1 + MGovernment Internet Public Internet Global Internet

1 G 2 G 3 G 10 * 4 10 * 9 10 * 38 Professionals Innovators Every-One & -Thing Email, Ftp WWW Wireless, Streaming Media 9.6 k 56 k 1 + MGovernment Internet Public Internet Global InternetDIALDIAL--UP INTERNETUP INTERNET ALWAYSALWAYS--ONON

• NCP Conception

• NCP Roll-Out

1961 19691961 19691969 19821969 19821972 19821972 1982

1983 Now!1983 Now!

1991 1995-Now1991 1995-Now

IP Conception

IPv4 Roll-Out

IPv6 ConceptionIPv6 Roll-Out2000 2000

IPv6 Technical DirectorateIPv6 Technical DirectorateChair: Jim Bound

Steve DeeringBrian CarpenterScott Bradner Christian Huitema Allison Mankin

Charlie PerkinsMatt Crawford Thomas Narten Erik Nordmark Thomas Ecklund

IPv6 Technical DirectorateIPv6 Technical Directorate

Brian Zill

Carl WilliamsStig Venas

Francis Dupont Alain Durand Jack McCann Henk Steenman

Cyndi Jung

Peter Tattam

Brian Haberman

Ivano GuardiniDale Finkelson

Yanick Pouffary

Stephen Hayes

Internet User Trends

0500

10001500200025003000350040004500

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Year

User

s (M

illion

s)

Source: Nua Internet Surveys + vgc projections

PersonPerson

PersonPerson

ApplianceAppliance

ApplianceAppliance

VoiceEmail

VoiceMail

Telemetry

IPsensors

Alarm

NotificationsEmerging

Growing

Growing

MaturingVoice Control

Fax Computer TeIephony Integration

Home Banking

InfoCom Application AreasInfoCom Application Areas

UMTS/IMT-2000MBS BB-WLANs

1972 1992 2002 2012

MobileMultimedia

Voice + Data

Voice

1G

2G

3G

Info

rmat

ion

bit r

ate

GSM 900/1800DECT

G - Evolution in continuity

IntegratedWireless World

©JPER

?

4G

2022

Evolution from 2G to 3G and BeyondEvolution from 2G to 3G and BeyondEvolution from 2G to 3G and BeyondCircuit

switchedCircuit

switched CS voice / packet dataCS voice / packet data IP coreIP core

GSM

UMTS

UWC-136

CDMA

2GHSCSD

2GHSCSD

end to end IPend to end IP

GPRSEDGEGPRSEDGE

WLAN

HiperLAN/802.11a

IMT-2000 CDMAMulti-Carrier

Optimally Connected Anywhere, Anytime

MBS at 60 GHz?MBS at 60 GHz?

Ad hoc NetworksAd hoc Networks

New RadioInterface?

New RadioInterface?Bluetooth

2G 3G and beyond9.6-14.4 kbps

evolved 2G

64-144 kbps 384 kbps-2 Mbps 100 Mbps?384 kbps-20 Mbps

3GPP Rel 0xIMT-2000 CDMA

Direct Spread + TDD

3GPP Rel 0xIMT-2000 CDMA

Direct Spread + TDD3GPP Rel 993GPP Rel 99

D-AMPSD-AMPS

IS 95IS 95

GPRS/EDGEIMT-2000 TDMA

Single-Carrier

GPRSEDGEGPRSEDGE

CDMA2000

CDMA2000

Includes VerticalHandover between

Technologies

WirelessWirelessIPIP

SocietySocietyS-UMTS

SatelliteBroadband

DVB-SDVB-T

DAB

GSMGPRS/EDGE

DECTIR

BroadbandW-LAN

UMTS

Satellite/HAPS

Broadcasting

Cellular

Indoor

MBS 40 xMDS

Broadband WFA

Wireless Local Loop

Body LANs

PersonalArea Networks

UMTS ++

4th Generation

Local Area NetworksMBS 60 MWS

Bluetooth

Quasi-Cellular

A Galaxy of heterogeneous networksA Galaxy of heterogeneous networks

Telecom IndustryTelecom Industry

main frames

desk top computing

PC-LANPC-WAN

InternetInternetInternetInternet

electronicpublishing and entertainment

Computer IndustryComputer Industry

Media IndustryMedia Industry

The ConvergedIndustry

The ConvergedIndustry

Wireline

mobilitymobile/mobile

PSTN

ISDN

PC/Servers

NewTelecomsIndustry

NewTelecomsIndustry

3G/mobile Internet

Carrier class

MMM

WWWWWWWWWWWW

WAP

Next

battle ground

Vision: World at your fingertipsVision: World at your fingertips

ADSL, Cable TV,... Service

Gateway

What is the Key Enabler for Mass Deployment

of Mobile IP-Services ??

!! Cheap Cheap Chea

Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap

It must be

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (1 Billion Users Forecast)

NCP Pv4 NAT IPv6NCP Pv4 NAT NAT IPv6IPv61970 1980 2001

IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!1990

- ?

Always-On IP Addresses

Global Address Allocation

RIPE NCC

ARIN

APNIC

5%2%

4%

53%

36%

Unallocated

PRE-RIR Historical Allocations

ARIN APNIC

RIPE NCC

Global IPv6 Distribution

JPUS

KR

DE

SEUK EU FR PL RUTW

NL

Other:

AU, AT, BE, CA, CN, DK, FR, GR, HK, IT, MX, PT, SG, CH

Million Year 2005 Year 2010Mobile Phones 1500 3000Mobile IP Phones 500 10001% Roaming 5 10400 Wireless Networks 2000 4000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Jun

-88

Dec

-88

Jun

-89

Dec

-89

Jun

-90

Dec

-90

Jun

-91

Dec

-91

Jun

-92

Dec

-92

Jun

-93

Dec

-93

Jun

-94

Dec

-94

Jun

-95

Dec

-95

Jun

-96

Dec

-96

Jun

-97

Dec

-97

Jun

-98

Dec

-98

Jun

-99

Dec

-99

Growth in BGP Route Table

Projected routing table growth without CIDR/NAT

Deployment Period of CIDR

Moore’s Law and NATsmake routing work today

Source: http//www.telstra.net/ops/bgptable.html

But they cannot berelied on forever

120,000

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

IPv6 Deployment

Successful Complete Failure Partial

Sub-secnario 1 Sub-scenario 2

ExhaustionNAT-o-NAT

IPsec Works e-2-e Limited Broken Partial

Fog Noticeble Noticeble Clears! Fog Fog

NATs between even ISPs

Address Transparency

Restored e-2e Recycling addresses

Partial

Similar to v4-2-v6 Transition

FOG Permanet Thick Fog

Issues Intranet, Proxies & Firewalls may remain

Generalised use of NAPT, RSIP?


IPv6 Deployment


Sub-scenario 1 Sub-scenario 2

Exhaustion NAT-o-NAT





Restored e-2e Recycling IP Addresses

Partial






IPv6 Deployment


Sub-secnario 1 Sub-scenario 2

ExhaustionNAT-o-NAT






Partial






IPv6 Deployment


Sub-secnario 2.1 Sub-scenario 2.2

ExhaustionNAT-o-NAT










Partial

Net Net HeadsHeadsThe people who get it will run it

The Culture Shock !

Bell Bell HeadsHeadsThe people who know how to operate massive

mission - critical networks will control the Net

MeltingMelting PotPotEstablished carriers will hire Internet geeks and buy ISPs, andNG service providers will bring in experienced pros

Bell Bell HeadsHeads! Central control is a must.

! The only way to scale the infrastructure is with a

hierarchical, unified system architecture.

! ! ! ! Web-centric computing is an extension of the mainframe era.

! ‘Bet you `re glad you don`t have to reboot your phone when

you need to dial 911!

! Contradiction: Deregulation and technical innovation have

made it impossible to maintain control of ifThe System.lT

NetNet HeadsHeads

! ! ! ! #### Chaos is good for creativity.

! The only way to scale the Net is with decentralized architecture

and control.

! ! ! ! Peer-to-peer networking is an extension of the PC revolution.

! ! ! ! #### Information (software, music, etc.) wants to be free. »

! Contradiction: Now that the 25-year adolescence of the Net is

over, and businesses want to use it for e-commerce, the Net

must grow up or get adult supervision.

IPv6 : An e-Buisness Enabler

Critical Success Factor Today with IPv4 IPv6

Cost Effectiveness Costly workarounds >1 billion addresses / person

Flexibility Frequent renumbering Simplified network planningas site grows and management

Reliability Operational complexity Return to simple andscalable architecture

Availability Single points of failure 24x7 operation

Scalability Client/server Peer-to-peer

Accessibility Obstacles to deploying Pervasive enablernext generation Simplified applicationapplications (e.g., VoIP ) development

Security Interferes with some Enabler for end-to-endapplications security

IPv4

IPv6Total

Time

Volu

me

The BIG Questions!• Why √√√√• When ? • Where ?• What is the cost ?

Strategic IPv6 IcebreakersStrategic IPv6 IcebreakersEuro6IXEuro6IX6NET6NET

100% IPv6 readiness by 2005• Prime Mister of

Japan YoshiroMori – 80 M$

• Korean MIC followed Japan Feb 23, 2001– 68 M$

Japanese Deployment Efforts• Governmental

– IPv6 Council (Kyogikai)– JGN (Japan Gigabit Network) IPv6

• R&D– WIDE IPv6 / NSPIXP6 / Kame / Usagi / TAHI

• Industrial– IAJapan IPv6 Deployment Committee– JPNIC IPv6 project– IPv6 Operation Study Group

• Publication– IPv6 Journal (RIIS)– v6start (Nikkei BP)

IPv6 Council

• Initiated by Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications

• Chair: Jun Murai• Not only router vendors and service providers, but

home appliance developers etc. are involved• TAO (Telecommunications Advancement Organization of Japan)

conducts a nation-wide IPv6 experiment including home appliance application development, using budget of 8 billion Yen (= $ 800k).

Telecommunications• connection-oriented• services are tightly-coupled to

the network• centralised control• hardware is fault tolerant• features selected at call setup

• obsession with QoS• low latency

Data Communications• connectionless• services are loosely-coupled

to the network• distributed control• software is fault tolerant• features selected during

sessions• little attention to QoS• high latency

The telecoms and data worldshave different roots:

!Common applications !

Common infrastructure

The telecoms and data worldshave different roots:

!Common applications !

Common infrastructure

Gracefull Transitions

IPv4IPv4

TB6to4

6over4NAT-PT

BISSOCKS

TB6to4

6over4NAT-PT

BISSOCKS

NAT-PTBIS

SOCKS

NAT-PTBIS

SOCKSIPv6IPv6

IPv4 OnlyIPv4 Ocean

IPv6 Island

IPv4 Island

IPv6 Ocean

IPv6 Only

IPv4/IPv6 Translation Required

ExperimentalIPv6 Network

DSTMNAT-PT

BISSOCKS"4to6 ?"

DSTMNAT-PT

BISSOCKS"4to6 ?"

IPv6 - a small step for IP but a giant leap for Telcos

Early conclusion

+ Wireless

ΣΣΣΣΣΣΣΣ Internet 2001 is a baby!Internet 2001 is a baby!

Internet Growth

100 IP Adds/person!

+ Always-On+ Info Soft

Appliances

FinallyFinally

The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be

and the more complex the transition will be !

(compared to

IPv4

• Y2K is Over; Media Needs a New High-Tech Story

Why IPv6 is a Hot Story

• Any Doomsday Scenario for the Internet is Big News

–Denial of Service Attacks• Internet Luminaries Are Talking

about IPv6 More

- Cerf, Dyson, etc.

IPv4

The New Internet

1969 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

IP E

volu

tion

1 billion +Connected Devices

100m

NCPNCP

1983

IPv6 FORUMIPv6 FORUM

Vint CERFHonorary Chairman

sep 6th, rio de janeirointernet: as of tomorrow phonephone econo financ econo financ educeduc...

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