seminário confinatto 2014 - miguel cavalcanti
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Participe do Movimento Pecuária do Futuro
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Tendências e Perspectivas do Mercado do Boi Gordo em 2014
Miguel Cavalcantiwww.beefpoint.com.br 21 de Março de 2014
Ribeirão Preto - SP
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Um verdadeiro MBA em pecuária de corte de alto nível.
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Andanças:
Palestras pelo BrasilEUA
AustráliaEuropa
Argentina - Uruguai
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Sobre a Pecuária de Corte
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Baixa rentabilidadeAlta liquidez
Paixão
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Ciclo da Pecuária
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Cadeia produtiva da carne bovina
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Cria Recria Engorda
Dentro da fazenda
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Abate de fêmeas e ciclo pecuário
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Elevado abate de fêmeas> carne no mercado< preço da carne< preço do boi gordo< renda do produtor> abate de fêmeas< produção bezerrosno futuro, > preço do boi gordo
Consequências:
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Troca&
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Margem'Bruta'
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“Escalas aqui em GO para anteontem :-)”
Silvio Busnardo (Silvão)
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Pecuária é uma agricultura de
pasto. E a safra de pasto em 2014?...
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Grandes diferenças tecnológicas e de
escala
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E de rentabilidade
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Benchmarking
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Benchmarking Exagro 2011Resultados / sistema de produção
020406080
100120140160
Cria Recria Engorda CRE CRE Reposição
146.8135.9
154.1146.5
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Cria Recria Engorda Média
24.5
65.1
13.7
146.1154.1
146.5
Clientes Diagnosticos
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Mão de obra é hoje o custo #1
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Maior tecnologia é o vaqueiro.
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SeleçãoEducação
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Austrália:Vaqueiro US$ 200 / dia
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Pensam em gente
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Preços globalizados há pouco tempo
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Grande mudança de tecnologia
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Aumento do uso de tecnologia...
Os 50 maiores confinamentos do Brasil
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IATF hoje em larga escala
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Angus passa Nelore...
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1995
Fonte: IBGE, 2006.
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2006
Source: IBGE, 2006.
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Fonte: FNP/Estadão
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Integração Lavoura-Pecuária
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Agricultura + Pecuária + Floresta
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ILP+
Benchmarking
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Mercado mundial da carne
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Países em diferentes momentos e movimentos
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19501954
19581962
19661970
19741978
19821986
19901994
19982002
20062010
2014*
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
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Rebanho encolhendo há mais de 30 anos
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Austrália
• 22 milhões de habitantes
• US$ 40.000 / per capita ano (#19)
• 26 milhões de cabeças de gado
• 59.000 fazendas
• Exporta 2.1 mi ton (65% do total, #2 no mundo)
• 33 kg consumo per capita ano
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700 mm de chuva por ano...
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Visão e plano de longo prazo
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Sem falsas dicotomias
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Cada um escolhe o mercado
que deseja atender.
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Foco em carne
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Carne a Pasto
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Índia maior exportador
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China
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Argentina
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TransparênciaConfiança
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QualidadeRastreabilidade
Foco na Exportação
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Uma entidade que representa o setor
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Seis balanças lacradas
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Brasil #2 maior mercado consumidor
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Nova classe média
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Fonte: Gira, 2010
Consumo mundial de carnes (2010 a 2020)
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CARO
DIFÍCIL
DEMORADO
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Luxos da cidade
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Luxos do campo
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Rondonópolis, MT
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Tangará da Serra, MT
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Outros pontos de vista
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São dois negócios diferentes...
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Maior problema de um programa de qualidade é
o curral vazio de um frigorífico.
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O mais importante para assistência técnica é conseguir ensinar a
comercializar.
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Três pontos sempre presentes na
negociação diferenciada com frigorífico.
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Concentração maior da indústria
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Aprendizado sobre a relação produtores e frigoríficos:
estudo de caso Brasil, Austrália, EUA e Uruguai
Miguel Cavalcanti - BeefPointwww.beefpoint.com.br
facebook.com/beefpointtwitter: @beefpoint
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O que o produtor deseja?
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O que o produtor já faz?
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Relembrando Workshop
Tipificação...
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Não é mais impossível, é apenas
difícil.
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Tempestade perfeita
Tudo empurra para maior produtividade...
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Coragem e OusadiaVontade e Trabalho
Flexibilidade
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“Para ter um negócio de sucesso, alguém, algum dia,
teve que tomar uma atitude de coragem”.
Peter Drucker, 1909-2005.
124
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Participe do Movimento Pecuária do Futuro
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Muito obrigado!
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BeefPoint:Para quem faz hoje a pecuária do futuro. E para quem quer fazer.
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Miguel Cavalcanti
twitter: @beefpointwww.facebook.com/beefpoint
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