[semi theater] taiwan market update semicon taiwan
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DESCRIPTIONDan Tracy, Sr. Director, SEMI Industry Research & Statistics Ana Li, Sr. Representative of Outreach, SEMI Taiwan The semiconductor industry in Taiwan continues to grow and is estimated to be number 1 in equipment and number 2 in materials spending for the next 1 to 2 years. This session includes a market update of the semiconductor equipment and materials market as well as an update on the semiconductor fabs in Taiwan. The session will conclude with a discussion on how to leverage SEMICON Taiwan as an effective branding and marketing tool to establish your presence and grow your market share in Taiwan! Presented at the SEMI Theater at SEMICON WEST on July 14, 2010.
- 1. Industry Update- Taiwan Dan TracySEMI Industry Research & Statistics GroupSEMICON WEST 2010July 14, 2010
2. 2Billions of Units0.02.04.0 6.08.010.0 12.014.0 16.0 Source: WSTS/SIA Jan-0 Ma r 3 May-03-0Jul- 3 Sep-03 N ov-030 Jan-0 3 Mar- 4 May-04 0Jul- 4 Sep-04 N ov-04 0 Jan-0 4 Ma r 5 May-05-0Jul- 5 Sep-05 N ov-050 Jan-0 5 Mar- 6 May-06 0Jul- 6 Sep-06 N ov-060 Jan-0 6 Ma r 7 May-07-Jul- 07and ASP Trends Sep-07 N ov-070 Jan-0 7 Mar- 8 IC Unit (3-month average) May-08 0Jul- 8 Sep-08 N ov-080 Jan-0 8 Ma r 9 May-09-0 Record IC Unit ShipmentsJul- 9 IC ASP Sep-09IC Units N ov-09 0 Jan-1 9 Mar- 0 10$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00 $2.50US$Chip demand drives material consumption and capital investment 3. 2010 Semiconductor and ICRevenue Forecasts32.7% Henderson Ventures (Jun 10) 31.0%Future Horizons (May 10)30.6% iSuppli (May 10)28.6% WSTS (Jun 10) 28.4%SIA (Jun 10) 27.9%Semico Research (Jun 10)27.1% Gartner (Jun 10)27.0% IC Insights (May 10) 25.0%VLSI Research (May 10)23.0% Databeans (Apr 10)0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: SEMI3 4. Taiwan Market TSMC Chang more upbeat on 2010 chip growth Digitimes, June 15, 2010 UMC capacity bookedthrough 3Q10, says CFODigitimes, June 15, 2010Taiwan to invest in NAND flash project SiliconStrategies, June 30, 2010Chipbond at almost ASE raises 2010 capexfull capacityDigitimes June 15, 2010Digitimes, June 23, 20104 5. 5 NT$ Millions - 10,00020,000 30,00040,00050,00060,00070,000 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Source: Company reportsJul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 (ASE, SPIL, TSMC, and UMC) Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Combined Monthly Revenues- 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-102Q 2010 Outsource Manufacturers Monthly Sales- +39% > 2Q 2009 - +13% > 1Q 2010 6. Taiwan Fab Capacity Foundry to drive capacity growth Taiwan Fab Capacity - Foundry & DRAM 1,800 1,600 1,400 8" equiv wafer K/month1,200Analog Discrete1,000 Foundry Logic 800 Memory 600 MEMS Other 400200020072008200920102011 6Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2010 7. Foundry Capacity Share Taiwan Leads the packWorldwide Foundry Capacity Share100%80% TaiwanSE Asia 60%KoreaJapanEurope & Mideast 40%ChinaAmericas20% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 7 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2010 8. Taiwan Fab Spending Foundry & DRAM-driven Taiwan Fab Spending by Product Type 12000 10000 37953265 Other 8000 MEMS US$ Million8380 Memory 6000Logic Foundry Discrete 4000 3641112055746384 Analog 2000 271127461576 0 20072008200920102011 8 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2010 9. Taiwan Foundry: Strong rebound!! Taiwan foundries led strong recovery of wafer shipment and utilization starting from 2Q09. Aggressive capacity and technology investment from 3Q09 onwards are much faster than earlier expected. Market dynamics: IDMs fab-lite strategy and legacy fab closures will continue to foster foundry business. Ongoing consolidation for both market share and geographic presence.9 10. DRAM: 50nm and below transition DRAM market shall remain healthy throughout theyear as supply increase still lag behind demand. 50nm and 40nm class migration from DRAM sectorwill continue to drive the equipment spending for2H10 and 2011. The availability of immersion tools has become thebottleneck of technology migration and capacityexpansion plan.10 11. Some Recent 2010 AnnouncementsTSMC US$4.8 billion capex plan; Over 90% for advanced node capacity 28 nm pilot to start in mid 2010. New GigaFab project Fab 15 in Taichung start groundbreaking this year. UMC Capex will be in the range of US$1.2 billion to US$1.5 billion Fab 12A 40/45nm capacity, 28 nm development Fab 12A P3/P4: related construction to be completed by 3Q10 Nanya /Inotera 50 nm process starting, 42 nm schedule to pull in starting from 3Q10. Nanya to raise capex for Fab 3 expansion. Powerchip/Rexchip Node migration to 45nm being delayed due to the availability of litho tools. Powerchip and Rexchip both plan around US$390M capex this year. Source: SEMI, Company announcements, and DigiTimes 11 12. Some Recent 2010 AnnouncementsSPIL Capex further expand to over US$600M this year, mainly for copper wire bondingexpansion. ASE Capex revised from US$500M to US$700M. (a historical high) Powertech Technology New Hsinchu plant started equipping in 2Q10 and will come on-line in 3Q10. Plans to increase 35%-40% capacity this year. Walton Advanced Engineering New facility in Kaohsiung (from Hannstar) will come online in 3Q10. (pull in one quarter) Ardentec Plans to increase capacity in Taiwan and Singapore facilities. Source: SEMI, Company announcements, and DigiTimes 12 13. Dedicated LED Fabs North AmericaChina Europe# of fabs3# of fabs28# of fabs 4 Korea# of fabs9 Japan# of fabs11Taiwan# of fabs 37Southeast Asia# of fabs2LegendNotes: Filtered by Product Type: Discrete/LED Upcoming fabs Information is subject to change. Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Watch / World Fab Forecast, June, 2010 13 14. Known Investments for Dedicated LED Fabs2010 Fab SpendingRegion (Construction / Equipping)Taiwan$600 MChina $503 MKorea $337 MJapan $270 MNorth America $60 MEurope & Mideast$ 12 MS.E. Asia$3M Notes:- Data is estimated for 2010- List above only includes Dedicated LED Chip making fab. Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, June 2010 14 15. Taiwan LED Manufacturers:Growing InvestmentsEpistar Plan to expand MOCVD tool from 180 to 220 in Taiwan. Two new LED JV fabs in China will come on line in 2011. Acquire 48% stake of Huga Optotech. Lexstar Aggressive ramp of epi capacity from 30K/M in 1Q10 to 130K/M in Taiwan. TSMC Invest US$175M to build a LED lighting R&D center in Hsinchu. Formosa Epitaxy To increase a dozen MOCVD tools in Taiwan this year. New fab in Yangzhou China will come on line in 3Q10. Chimei Lighting Technology To accelerate capacity expansion by acquiring facility and equipment from GIO Opto. Genesis Photonics New plant in Tainan to come online in 3Q10, with maximum capacity of 50K/month. New JV project in Kunshan, China is planned in 2011.Source: SEMI, Company announcements, and DigiTimes 15 16. TSV ITRI In July, ITRI establishes the first 12-inch wafer TSVexperimental line in Asia to develop Taiwan's home-grown 3D IC technology. Companies that also join the TSV R&D initiative includeASE, UMC, SPIL, Hermes, etc. 16 17. SEMI 2010 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW $45 $42.77US$ Billions$40$35.53$35$32.50$29.52$30$25$20 $15.92$15$10 $5 $02007 (A)2008 (A)2009 (A) 2010 (F)2011 (F) ROW3.052.61 1.443.013.80 China2.991.89 0.942.242.64 S.Korea7.354.89 2.607.498.08 Europe 2.942.45 0.971.922.10 Taiwan 10.65 5.01 4.359.189.28 Japan9.317.04 2.234.084.70 N. America 6.555.63 3.394.57 4.94 Totals may not add due to roundingSource: SEMI Mid-Year 2010 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, July 2010 17 18. SEMI 2010 Materials Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan TaiwanEurope S.Korea China Southeast Asia$50 $45 $42.67 $42.52 $40.48 $42.92 $40 $37.25 $34.63US$ Billions $35 $30 $28.82 $30.94 $25 $20 $15 $10$5$0 200420052006 2007 2008 20092010F2011F Southeast Asia4.555.036.18 6.79 6.90 5.98 6.78 7.13 China 1.281.642.38 3.31 3.57 3.26 3.86 4.25 S.Korea 3.103.784.88 6.10 5.90 4.69 5.74 6.16 Europe2.802.883.39 3.68 3.32 2.52 2.96 3.09 Taiwan4.855.316.74 8.34 7.87 6.77 8.17 8.80 Japan 7.617.588.57 9.19 9.96 7.63 8.69 9.01 N. America4.634.725.11 5.25 4.99 3.79 4.29 4.48 Totals may not add due to rounding. 18 Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription May 2010 19. Global Spending on Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Southeast AsiaChina8%North 13% America 12%Taiwan Market #1 spending region in 2010Taiwan 11% growth in 300mm fab capacity this year 24% Japan Estimated $120 billion spent since 200118% Europe 7%Korea18% 2010 Spending Outlook = ~$73 Billion Source: SEMI 19 20. Summary Semiconductor industry recovery Strong double-digit growth in 2010 Taiwan market Strong recovery in foundry (and packaging) beginning in 2Q 2009 leading to increases in capex Challenges for Taiwans DRAM makers. Some boost in capex for 2010/11 for 50 nm and below technology #1 market for foundry capacity, # 2 market overall for 300 mm capacity Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Market in Taiwan Will be the #1 region for equipment spending The # 2 largest market for semiconductor materials20 21. 21 22. The Most Effective SemiconductorEvent in Taiwan!Ana Li SEMI Taiwan July 14, 2010 23. Agenda SEMICON Taiwan 2010 Overview SEMICON Taiwan 2010 Features - Technology Pavilions - Programs & Events - Marketing Promotion Opportunities SEMICON Taiwan 2010 Visitor Promotion 24. SEMICON Taiwan 2010 Date 10:00-17:00Wed., September 8 10:00-17:00 Thu., September 9 10:00-16:00Fri., September 10 VenueTWTC Hall 1 Exhibitors500 exhibitors and 1,100 booths Organizer Co-organizer :3 2010/7/14 25. Targeted Visitors 50% of visitors are management level/ engineering position and influential to technology procurementIDMs FoundriesFabless Pkg/TestIntelTSMC QualcommAmkorSamsungTI UMCBroadcomASEToshibaSMIC nVidiaSPILIBMCharteredSanDisk STATSNanyaDongbuAnam ATI ChipPACSTInfineon HHNECXilinxChipMOSSony Vanguard AlteraKYECAMDSSMC MarvelMicron He JianNovatekNECHynixJazz VIAElpidaSSTRenesasFujisuQimondaPowerchip 26. Why SEMICON Taiwan 2010? A Supply-Chain Exhibition A Technology-based Promotion Platform A Cost Effective Solution The Connection to the Largest Semiconductor Community in Taiwan 27. Highlights of SEMICON Taiwan 2010 Technology Pavilions 3D IC & Advanced Packaging/Testing Pavilion(+ Gallery) AOI Pavilion CMP Pavilion Compound Semiconductor Pavilion LED Pavilion Green Management Pavilion MEMS Pavilion (+ University MEMS Research) Secondary Market Pa