SEMCOG Modeling Peer Exchange

Panel Report

Overall Outline

• Topic Definition• Planning Objective• Problem Statement• Basic Solution• Advanced Solution• Resources

Main Topics

• Data Needs/Methods• Operations Modeling• Freight/Commercial Vehicles• Transit• Economic / Land Use

Data Needs/Methods• Definition: Raw data for performance

measurement and model development.• Objective: Need for direct planning indicators

and prediction tools.• Problem: Traditional methods are becoming too

expensive and unreliable.• Basic: Continue data collection for performance

measurement and validation.• Advanced: Explore new paradigms for effective

data collection designed specifically for advanced modeling needs.

Operations Modeling• Definition: Dynamic Traffic Assignment at multiple scales of

granularity and analysis precision• Objective: Desire to analyze Construction zones, incident

management, traffic flow, intersection, signal time• Problem: Static assignment isn’t intended to measure

actual traffic flows.• Basic: Static assignment is a good tool but needs good

validation and post processing.• Advanced: True Network microsimulation requires ABM

integration for valid supply and demand analysis. • Resources: Investigate DTA platforms (DynusT, MATSIM,

TRANSIMS, DynaSmart). Internal expertise and interest desirable, but will require consulting/university support.

Freight Modeling• Definition: Commodity flows analysis. Logistics and Supply Chain

modeling Heavy Commercial Vehicle movements.• Objective: Explain the economics of the freight industry and its

relation to the manufacturing base.• Problem: True Freight modeling is undeveloped. Traditional

methods of Truck triptable preparation are wrong.• Basic: Continue with robust data collection program and use to

develop synthetic truck triptables. Examine use of statewide model and expand (inter)national sensitivity if needed.

• Advanced: Adopt a freight analysis construct that incorporates supply chain and logistics analysis, multiple freight modes and specialized network microsimulation.

Public Transit

• Definition: Demand for public transit modes. Ridership estimates.

• Objective: Promote alternative to automobile. Provide mobility to populations in need.

• Problem: Transit share is so small, elaborate modeling procedures may not be warranted.

• Basic: Keep mode choice simple. • Advanced: Identify travel market segments more fully and

develop specific models in an ABM context. This means moving toward population synthesis and microsimulation.

Economic and Land Use• Definition: The spatial dynamics of social and economic

change.• Objective: Understand the outcomes of policy actions

oriented toward fundamental change.• Problem: Travel demands models are not fully

integrated with Land Use and Economic prediction tools

• Basic: Use demand model accessibility to identify future land use potential (sketch level).

• Advanced: Develop a economic and land use simulation that is sensitive to declines and shifts in economic relationships (dynamic).

Equity (Fairness)

• Definition: individual benefits and burdens associated with public actions.

• Objective: Demonstrate that public actions are equitably distributed across the region.

• Problem: Modeling tools are used to predict the distribution of benefits

• Basic: Develop a broad range of metrics intended to communicate and educate audience on the dimensions of the topic.

• Advanced: Orient ABM development to rigorously track equity indicators at the person level.