TheSecondNuclearAge

TheNorthKoreanCaseByEdTimplerlake

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TheDynamicGlobalContext•  TheoverlapofmulGplecrisesatthesameGmeiscreaGnga

significantchallengetotheUSandtheallieddemocracies.•  Crisestendtobesegregatedinthepresscoverage,

analyGcalassessmentsorbythepoliGcalprocess.YetthecrisesfacingtheU.S.anditsdemocraGcalliesareinteracGveandcascading.

•  WhatisthenatureofthegatheringstormfacingtheU.S.anditsdemocraGcallies?

•  HowbesttodealwiththecascadingcrisesinaconnectedworldaffecGngtheviabilityofdemocraGcsocieGes?

•  Andnuclearweaponsremainthekeyelementinshapingorsurvivalandsecurity.

KeyDriversofChange

•  ThedisaggregaGonofEuropeinthewaveofmulGplecrises;•  StrategicupheavalintheMiddleEastanditsglobalimpact;•  ThecascadingimpactofChineseexpansionandRussianaggression

onafluidglobalsystem;•  IranianacGonsinthewakeoftheIranianagreement,andtheir

impactonkeyalliesintheregion;•  Theemergenceof21stcenturyforcesofinformaGonwarimpacGng

onthepoliGcaldebateandconsensusintheUSanditsdemocraGcallies;

•  TheimpactofpoliGcalcorrectnessonavoidingtoughstrategicissues;

•  Thefailureofthestrategicelitetostepuptothechallenge.

TheRulesofNuclearDeterrenceandDefenseAreChanging

•  TheRussianshaveincludedtacGcalnuclearweaponswithintheconvenGonalkillchain.

•  AndtheRussianshavedirectlythreatenedDenmarkwithanuclearstrikeandhavepracGcedanuclearstrikeagainstSweden.

•  TheIranianshavedemonstratedthesignificantpoliGcalvalueofnearpossessionofnuclearweapons.

•  ThekeyroleofChinainbothpossessingandsupporGngstateswithnuclearweapons.

•  NorthKoreaposesaclearandpresentdangertotheUnitedStateswithoutaclearunderstandingofwhattheUSneedstodotostoptheiruse

MissionStatementsDefiningtheChallenge

•  USAFMissionStatement–  ThemissionoftheUnitedStatesAirForceistofly,fightandwin...inair,space

andcyberspace.•  USNMissionStatement

–  IfDeterrencefails,theNavywillconductdecisivecombatoperaGonstodefeatanyenemy

•  USArmyADAMissionStatement–  Army'sFieldManual44-100,themissionofAirDefenseArGlleryis"toprotect

theforceandselectedgeopoliGcalassetsfromaeriala<ack,missilea<ack,andsurveillance.

•  NORK"DearLeader's"MissionStatement–  TurnWashingtonandSeoulinto“flamesandashes”witha“pre-empGve

nuclearstrikeofjusGce.”•  IranianReligiousLeader'sAyatollahAliKhamenei'sMissionStatemen

–  AmericaissGll"TheGreatSaGn"andIsraelisa“fake”regime,andsaidtherewon’tbeanyIsraelin25yearsfromnow.

HowtheCombatCommanderSeestheChallenger

•  Compareourinterview3½yearsagowithGeneralJacoby,ASA.theNORTHCOM/NORADCOMMANDER,toourmostrecentonewithAdmiralGortney,USN

•  DramaGcallydifferentthreatenvironment– NowtheUSandCanadianhomelandsfacedirectthreatsfromthe10and2O’ClockVectors

•  WhatdetersNorthKoreaoranynon-statenuclearactor?

•  FortheCombatCommanders,thisisNOTaseminarquesGon.

Conclusion•  AdmiralGortney:“Itisnotwhatisinmyheadthatma<ers;itiswhatisinhis?”

•  Thereisasignificantcross-learningprocessworldwideamongthesecondnuclearageplayers.

•  Arewetrappedbyourhistoricalknowledgeof“deterrence.”

•  ProfessorBracken:“IftheUnitedStatesdoesn’thaveaflexible,reliablenuclearpostureitcan’tdealeffecGvelywithothercountrieswhodo.ItistheulGmatevulnerabilitythatshapesothersecuritychoices.”