second arctic system science all-hands meeting
DESCRIPTION
Second Arctic System Science All-Hands Meeting. Seattle Feb. 20-22, 2002. Welcome and Introduction. Terry Chapin Lloyd Keigwin Amanda Lynch Bruce Peterson John Weatherly Glen MacDonald. Bill Heal Larry Hamilton Rudy Dichtl Jonathan Overpeck Jack Kruse. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Second Arctic System Science All-Hands Meeting
SeattleFeb. 20-22, 2002
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Welcome and Introduction
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Welcome, on behalf of the ARCSS Committee:
Terry Chapin Lloyd Keigwin Amanda Lynch Bruce Peterson John Weatherly Glen MacDonald
Bill Heal Larry Hamilton Rudy Dichtl Jonathan
Overpeck Jack Kruse
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Peck’s excuse
Jackson Cole Overpeck
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Who are “we”?
Over 500 principal investigators and co-investigators active in the ARCSS program.
Residents of the Arctic, including here members of the Alaska Native Science Commission
100’s more investigators, post-docs, graduate and undergraduate students, including international colleagues
ARCSS program support professionals: ARCUS, ADCC, JOSS, VECO…
NSF management and program staff.
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Why are we here?
To further chart the course of ARCSS-funded research – Through discussions about:
» Key uncertainties related to central ARCSS research questions
» ARCSS initiatives
With the goal of addressing key uncertainties in ARCSS initiatives.
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Where have we come from?
National concern in mid-1980s about effects of global climate change on the arctic system
Identification of important research questions
Major research initiatives Evolving national concerns and
feedback of science.
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Where are we going?
Build on ongoing science planning within ARCSS
Identify key uncertainties and readiness for research related to ARCSS central research questions.
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A brief overview of the central ARCSS research questions
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“Arctic Climate”
How will the climate of the Arctic change over the next 10 to 100 years?
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“Biogeochemical and Hydrologic Feedbacks”
How will changes in arctic biogeochemical and hydrological cycles, and their feedbacks affect arctic and global systems?
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“Arctic ecosystems and human societies”
How will future climate change interact with human activities to affect the sustainability of natural ecosystems and human societies?
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“Detecting Change”
Are the predicted changes in the Arctic system detectable?
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The ARCSS central questions in shorthand:
Arctic Climate Biogeochemical & Hydrologic
Feedbacks Arctic Ecosystems & Societies Detecting Change
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How are we charting the course of ARCSS?
Ongoing development of initiatives Building on
– Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions (OAII) &– Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions (LAII)– All-Hands joint meetings in Salt Lake
Bringing in new ideas: Post-Salt Lake on-line forums
Seattle All-hands Meeting Post-Seattle work
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Seattle All-Hands Meeting
Central ARCSS questions: Plenary discussion of key uncertainties and readiness for research
4 working groups– Modes of variability in the arctic system– Pan-Arctic, community-wide hydrological
analysis and monitoring program– Nearshore and coastal processes– Biophysical feedbacks and transitions in the
arctic regional system
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Post-Seattle
Help develop funding Develop science plans,
implementation plans, announcements of opportunity
Do the research!
Structure the ARCSS program to meet scientific needs
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ARCSS Components
Major discoveries, key uncertainties, readiness for
research, priorities for integrative research
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An evolving view of ARCSS
OAII LAIIPARCS
SHEBA
SBI RAISE
ATLAS
SEARCH
ARCSS Components
HARC
ITEX
CHAMP
ARCSS Thematic Initiatives
ARCSS Projects
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ARCSS Jargon PARCS – Paleoenvironments of the Arctic System OAII – Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions LAII - Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions HARC – Human Dimensions of the Arctic SEARCH – Study of Environmental Change CHAMP - Pan-Arctic, community-wide hydrological
analysis and monitoring program SHEBA – Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic SBI – Shelf-Basins Interactions ATLAS - Arctic Transitions in the Land-Atmosphere
System RAISE - Russian-American Initiative on Shelf-Land
Environments in the Arctic ITEX – International Tundra Experiment
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An evolving view of ARCSS
OAII LAIIPARCS
SHEBA
SBI RAISE
ATLAS
SEARCH
ARCSS Components
HARC
ITEX
CHAMP
ARCSS Thematic Initiatives
ARCSS Projects
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“Budding” Initiatives
Nearshore and Coastal Processes Biophysical Feedbacks and
Transitions in the Arctic Regional System
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Key Uncertainties Plenary Discussion
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Key uncertainties concerning:
Arctic Climate Biogeochemical & Hydrologic
Feedbacks Arctic Ecosystems & Societies Detecting Change
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Discussion questions:
What are the key uncertainties? What is the impact of this uncertainty on our
understanding of the Arctic system? What is our level of confidence in the above
assessment? What is our level of readiness to deal with this
uncertainty? Should this focus area be addressed in a new
or existing initiative, by one or a combination of ARCSS components, or by some other means?
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Thematic Working Groups
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Thematic working groups
Modes of variability in the arctic system (SEARCH)
Pan-Arctic, community-wide hydrological analysis and monitoring program (CHAMP)
Nearshore and coastal processes initiative
Biophysical feedbacks and transitions in the arctic regional system
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ARCSS Central Questions
Arctic climate
Arctic ecosystems & societies
Biogeochemical & Hydrologic Feedbacks
Detecting Change
Modes of Variability
CHAMP
Nearshore & coastal processes
Biophysical feedbacks & transitions
All-hands thematic working groups
Goal: address ARCSS key uncertainties within ARCSS initiatives