sea levels affecting marshes model using slamm to conserve rhode island’s coastal wetlands
TRANSCRIPT
Photo: R. Hancock
Sea Levels Affecting Marshes Model Using SLAMM to Conserve
Rhode Island’s Coastal Wetlands
Municipal Training Workshops October 28 & 30, 2014
James Boyd, CRMC Coastal Policy Analyst
Aesthetic Value of Salt Marshes
Painting: Charles Gordon Harris (1891-1963)
Why is Tidal (Salt) Marsh Important?
Forage and nursery habitat Nesting and migratory sites
Carbon sink
• $6,471/acre for maintaining fisheries (US East Coast; Barbier et al. 2011) • $81 million in RI commercial fishery landings (NOAA 2012)
• $208 million in RI recreational fishery value (NOAA 2012)
Clean water: nutrient (nitrogen) and pollutant uptake
$780-$15,000 per acre for water purification (Barbier et al., 2011)
Why is Tidal (Salt) Marsh Important?
Reduce Storm damage $2,931/acre/year
Costanza et al, 2008
$5 Billion of RI property protected by coastal habitats by 2100
Arkema et al., 2013
Why is Tidal (Salt) Marsh Important?
Rhode Island has lost 53% of its historic salt marshes over the last two centuries* due to man-made alterations (ditching and filling) resulting in a loss of about 4000 acres statewide
* Bromberg and Bertness, 2005
2010
2004
STB’s 10 years of restoration monitoring has shown that conditions can change rapidly in tidally restricted marshes
Recently, similar degraded conditions have been observed in marshes with no tidal restrictions
2010 Source: Save The Bay
May 15, 2014 Photo: J. Boyd August 13, 2014 Photo: J. Boyd
Source: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundation/
1.9-5.4 inches
> 1 foot above MHHW 230+ times
Sea levels are rising 1 inch every 10 years based on historic trend
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660
Sea Level Continues to Rise
Increasing Frequency of Nuisance Flooding
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/NOAA_Technical_Report_NOS_COOPS_073.pdf
Sea Level is Rising Faster along the Northeast US Coast
Figure 1 from “Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America” Asbury Sallenger et al., 2012 Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1597
Since about 1990, sea-level rise along the 600-mile stretch of coastal zone from Cape Hatteras, NC to north of Boston, MA have increased three to four times faster than the global average. Likely 8 to 11+ inches above global average SLR by 2100.
Glass and Pilkey, 2013. Earth Vol. 58, No. 5
1ft
3 ft
5 ft
Model Consensus of Future SLR Projections
USACE and NOAA SLR Curves
http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm
Source: Maine SeaGrant
Marsh Migration
Marsh Migration
Source: W. Ferguson, Save The Bay
Marsh Migration
Source: J. Boyd 05/15/14
Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)
Simulates the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions during long term
sea level rise
Applied and improved since 1985
Used throughout the world
http://www.warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM/
Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) North Kingstown Pilot Project (2011)
http://seagrant.gso.uri.edu/climate/habitat.html
All 21 Coastal Communities Completed
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
SLAMM Project Goals 1. Develop marsh migration modeling results (maps) 2. Identify existing vulnerable wetlands 3. Identify affected upland parcels – opportunities and
challenges 4. Develop new CRMC coastal program adaptive
strategies, policies and standards (Beach SAMP) 5. Increase local capacity to proactively incorporate
sea level rise for wetlands (e.g., comprehensive plans, zoning overlays, conservation efforts, etc.)
SLAMM Predicted Statewide Salt Marsh Changes due to Sea Level Rise
SLR 1 Ft. 3 Ft. 5 Ft. Loss (Acres) 450 1895 3189
Gain (Acres) 1057 1148 2151
Net Change (Acres) 607 -747 -1038
50% of Current Salt Marshes
Photo: J. Boyd
Statistics for Coastal Wetland Loss with
5 feet Sea Level Rise
Town Coastal Wetland Loss (acres) Barrington 330.5 Bristol 99.2 Charlestown 321.9 Cranston 2.3 East Greenwich 0.4 East Providence 71.1 Jamestown 116.0 Little Compton 96.5 Middletown 42.6 Narragansett 354.0 New Shoreham 61.4 Newport 19.1 North Kingstown 148.6 Pawtucket 0.1 Portsmouth 357.6 Providence 3.1 South Kingstown 275.9 Tiverton 273.9 Warren 242.4 Warwick 195.9 Westerly 246.3 TOTAL 3,258.8
SLAMM maps on CRMC web page
http://www.crmc.ri.gov/maps/maps_slamm.html
Action 6.5.3 - Adopt Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) data and projections as planning and decision-making support tool in statewide coastal wetland monitoring, protection and restoration strategy
RI Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council
http://www.planning.ri.gov/statewideplanning/climate/index.php
Municipal SLAMM Training Workshops
Recent Releases
http://seagrant.gso.uri.edu/projects-2/topics/community-resilience/
www.RIClimateChange.org
www.beachsamp.org
SLAMM Project is part of the Shoreline Change (Beach) SAMP
http://seagrant.gso.uri.edu/