sea level rise/recurrent flooding in virginia beach level rise changes flood ... model setup &...
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Sea Level Rise/Recurrent Flooding in Virginia BeachAgriculture Advisory Commission October 9, 2017
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Sea Level Rise Changes Flood Recurrence Intervals
Scenario Recurrence Intervals, yrToday 10 50 100 500
1.5 ft SLR 3 8 14 100
3 ft SLR 1 2 3 14
Theory
Observed – tidal Projected change in surge elevation recurrenceNOAA
Forbes
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Sea Level Rise
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VB SLR Planning Range
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Annual Extreme Precipitation EventsNorfolk Airport Rain Gauge (NOAA/NWS)
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Future Rainfall Strong evidence of already observed increases in heavy precipitation
occurrence and intensity at Norfolk and regionally Significant changes have occurred since 2000 Uncertainty is increasing about using the stationary assumption
Future precipitation-frequency curves increase most notably for 1-10 year events; ex: 2-year event increases by 30%
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Flooding Issues: a Triple Threat
Rainfall Tidal
Backwater
WAVY.com
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Stormwater Master Planning, Analysis, and Modeling Updating the City’s 31
Stormwater Drainage Area Models
Includes Preliminary Drainage Analysis to identify future Capital Drainage Projects
Models will allow Stormwater Engineering Center to provide starting tailwater elevations to developers for projects
Models will be live and reside in the Stormwater Engineering Center
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STORMWATER MASTER PLANNING, ANALYSIS, ANDMODELING FIRST QUARTER ACTIVITIES
▪ Lynnhaven River Watershedo Watersheds 3, 5, & 8 are completeo Watersheds 7, 4, 30 & 6 to be completed by the end of the
year
▪ Southern Rivers Watershedo Watersheds 9 and 10 to be complete by the end of the yearo Watersheds 12-15 to be complete by February 2019o Watersheds 11, 16, 23-28 to be complete by April 2020o Alternative Models better suited to modeling basins with
extremely flat topographic relief being considered for the lower Southern Watershed
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Comprehensive Sea level Rise Study Three Phases
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Project Status
• Phase 1 – Impact Assessment: Recently completed for all four major watersheds in Virginia Beach
• Phase 2 – Adaptation Strategies:• Lynnhaven: Underway, 2018 Spring • Southern Watershed: Underway, 2018 Summer• Elizabeth River: 2017 Fall to 2018 Summer• Beach Borough: 2017 Winter to 2018 Fall
• Public Engagement• 2017 fall to 2018 Fall
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Flood Extent Changes
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Change in Flood Area
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Total Annualized Losses
Watershed
Total Building InventoryBillions Today 1.5 ft SLR 3 ft SLR
Estimated Value % of Total Combined
Loss Loss Ratio Combined Loss Loss Ratio Combined
Loss Loss Ratio
Elizabeth River $10.3 13% $2.70 0.03% $8.57 0.08% $24.25 0.24%Lynnhaven $42.7 53% $17.29 0.04% $55.94 0.13% $164.08 0.38%Southern $24.5 30% $5.14 0.02% $19.58 0.08% $170.84 0.70%Oceanfront $3.6 4% $0.55 0.02% $2.50 0.07% $16.20 0.44%
City-wide $81.1 100% $25.69 0.03% $86.58 0.11% $375.37 0.46%
• Structural, Content, Business Disruption LossesLosses, Millions
$0$50
$100$150$200$250$300$350$400
Today 1.5 ft SLR 3 ft SLR
Loss
es, M
illion
s
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Watershed Loss Changes with SLRWatershed Today 1.5 SLR 3 ft SLR
Elizabeth River 2.48 8.18 23.60
Lynnhaven 15.97 53.27 158.14
Southern 4.62 17.94 165.31
Oceanfront 0.49 2.37 15.72
Total: 23.56 81.76 362.77
Annualized Losses, Millions
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Annualized Loss Concentration – Today
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Annualized Loss Concentration – 1.5 ft SLR
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Annualized Loss Concentration – 3 ft SLR
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Relative Concentration of LossesScenario = 3 ft SLRTotal Annualized Building and Contents Losses
Loss Category
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Preliminary Assessment of Great Bridge Lock
Southern VB to near Cape Lookout, NCCaptures full potential fetch across Pamlico, Albemarle, and Currituck SoundsOpen boundary on S. branch of Elizabeth River
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Model Setup & Conclusion• Grid
• Source: FEMA Region III Flood Insurance Study• Modifications:
• Ran model with the canal/locks open• Created 2nd version with canal/locks closed by implementing
wall at 15 ft NAVD88 across full width of canal• Compared results
• Wind forcing - constant wind from due south at 15 mph (6.7 m/s)
• Locks had minimal effect on wind tide elevations along the North Landing River
• Locks had no effect on wind tide elevations in Back Bay
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Wind-tide and Flooding Investigations • The City has offered to cost participate with the USACOE in
a study of the effect of the Great Bridge Locks. In light of the Dewberry assessment, this may not be a wise use of funds
• Dewberry is working on an assessment of wind tides. That work is expected by Summer 2018
• Public Works is looking at the feasibility to elevate some roads
• Indian River Road (between West Neck and PA (2 miles)• Sandbridge Road (between Flanagans and Colechester including
the New Bridge intersection, (0.7 miles)• Pungo Ferry Road (Blackwater Road to the bridge) (2 miles)
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2017 2018Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Impact AssessmentHazard Analysis and MappingBuilding Risk AssessmentWater Resources AnalysisInfrastructure Vulnerability
Strategy Development, Evaluation, Plan Formulation
Lynnhaven Development Evaluation Plan
Southern
Elizabeth River
Oceanfront
Outreach
Public Engagement General Information Strategy Discussion Plan Outreach
If additional time needed for coordination, etc.
Schedule
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Coordination/Outreach• Conducted City Manager and City Council briefings in July• Prepared draft Public Engagement Plan• Southern Watershed Stormwater Meeting conducted on
August 2, 2017• Working to finalize coordination of responsibilities and
develop initial timeline of fall activities• Public meetings (3-4) to be conducted by ODU/VA Sea
Grant this fall - scheduling underway
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Questions?
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