Sea ASIACHARTERERS’ FORUM

Singapore

2 April 2007

Peter M. Swift

INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington

CHARTERERS’ FORUM

OIL SHIPPING

Fleet development

Chartering today

Future demand ?

Tanker fleet developmentm dwtm dwt

0

92

184

276

368

460

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 P07 P08 P090

1,040

2,080

3,120

4,160

5,200

dwt

number

NoNo

Assumptions for period until 2009:Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)

Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt)

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec-9

2

Jun-9

3

Dec-9

3

Jun-9

4

Dec-9

4

Jun-9

5

Dec-9

5

Jun-9

6

Dec-9

6

Jun-9

7

Dec-9

7

Jun-9

8

Dec-9

8

Jun-9

9

Dec-9

9

Jun-0

0

Dec-0

0

Jun-0

1

Dec-0

1

Jun-0

2

Dec-0

2

Jun-0

3

Dec-0

3

Jun-0

4

Dec-0

4

Jun-0

5

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Dec-0

6

95/105,000 dwt

150,000 dwt

280,000 dwt

40/45,000 dwt

Source: Fearnleys

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Handy

Chem/Spec)

Panamaxes

Aframaxes

Suezmaxes

VLCCs

1993 and earlier sizes except

VLCCs were defined differently

Demolition: slowed in recent years(mdwt)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

Others/NK

Bangladesh

Pakistan

India

Taiwan

Korea

China

Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt)

Years

6

8

10

12

14

16

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Double-hull percentage rising steadily

%

6

22

5159

67 68 73 76 79 82 85

94

78

4941

33 32 27 24 21 18 15

0

20

40

60

80

1001

99

1

19

97

En

d 0

2

En

d 0

3

En

d 0

4

En

d 0

5

En

d 0

6

En

d 0

7

En

d 0

8

En

d 0

9

En

d 1

0

SH/DB/DS

DH

% dwt share* :

* Assumes

phase out

according to

regulations

(rounded

upwards, 25

years after 2010

.

(Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out- an “uncertainty” post 2010

m dwtm dwt

Assumptions :MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010.DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SHuntil 25 years)

EU + no SH after 2010

OPA90

Conversions to Double Hulla further “uncertainty”

Built 10-30, 000 dwt

30-52, 000 dwt

60-72, 000 dwt

90-113, 000 dwt

(incl 6 obos)

120-148, 000dwt

VLCCs TOTAL

1970s 3 2 0 0 0 0 5

1980-1984

8 36 9 1 0 0 54

1986-1989

11 12 0 3 3 1 30

1990-1998

2 9 1 18 2 2 34

TOTAL 24 59 10 22 5 3 123

CHARTERERS’ FORUM

OIL SHIPPING

Chartering today

Oil import by VLCCs - share of double hull

Source : Fearnleys

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Atlantic

Far East Others

%

Average

Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull

%

Source : Fearnleys

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Atlantic

Far East Others

Average

Oil import by Aframaxes - share of double hull

%

Source : Fearnleys

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Atlantic Far East Others

Average

Based on figures from Fearnleys

Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Atlantic Far East Others

Average

Source : Fearnleys

Oil export by Aframaxes - share of double hull

%

Source : Fearnleys

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

AG/Red Sea NE/A Africa

Caribs N Sea

Others

Average

Period contracts of one year and above

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Unknown

10,000-49,999 dwt

50,000-99,999 dwt

100,000-199,999 dwt

Above 200,000 dwt

No.

Year No.Average

ageAverage period

2000 144 9.5 1.37

2001 218 8.5 2.39

2002 221 7.3 1.87

2003 108 8.7 1.96

2004 126 8.7 2.44

2005 160 5.1 2.90

2006 198 6.2 2.60

*2007 70 5.3 2.30

*Projection 2007: 305 contractsSource: INTERTAKO

CHARTERERS’ FORUM

OIL SHIPPING

Future demand ?

India and China – growth markets

Asia leads tanker demand rise

CHARTERERS’ FORUM

OIL SHIPPING

Tonnage Supply & Demand ForecastsAverage Annual Growth 2007-2009

Source: McQuilling Brokerage Partners

Supply Demand

VLCC 9.2% 3.3%

Suezmax 7.3% 2.1%

Aframax 9.6% 0.5%

Coated Aframax 4.4% 1.3%

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