scientific and societal challenges of the next 20 years a presentation to: the national science...
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![Page 1: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop
Alexander E. MacDonald
Earth System Research Laboratory – Director
DAA – OAR LCI
September 24, 2007
Boulder, Colorado
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Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
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The quality of a prediction depends first on scientific study to understand the physical processes. Then – and only then – it can be correctly incorporated into analysis and prediction models.
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Approach
1. Take the right observations.
2. Understand the processes (physical or chemical).
3. Incorporate into prediction models.
4. Change policy based on better knowledge.
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Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
![Page 6: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
![Page 7: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
HWIND Aerosonde Plots/Ophelia 16 Aug, 2005
969696
Satellite image at time of second closest approach of Aerosonde to wind center and just after WP-3D SFMR penetration across the eye.
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New NSF assets such as HIAPERcan improve our understanding of storm environments.
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Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
![Page 11: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Determine the Fate of the Arctic Ocean Ice
ARCTIC ICE COLLAPSE?
In 2007, the Arctic ocean ice decreased to its lowest ever coverage – a full 15% less.
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Permafrost (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (Observed)
The Community Climate Model shows the summer ice to be bistable, with a rapid transition from ice to ice-free in the 21st century.
(M. Holland et al, 2006)
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SHEBA 1998: Scientists spend a year on the Arctic Ocean ice . . .
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Arctic clouds may provide a warm blanket . . .
Detailed resolved cloud microphysics/opticalproperties
Aerosol Cloud Interactions
Satellite ValidationNine-year comparison of monthly cloud fractions form surface, TOVS and AVHRR on NOAA satellites And MODIS on NASA satellites over Barrow, Alaska
Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budgets
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In the NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems program, we propose to fly over the Arctic ice at low and high levels to measure the Arctic energy balance.
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Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
![Page 17: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
A rapid melt of Arctic ocean ice could increase the rate of Greenland ice melt. This chart from Overpeck shows a 2 meter sea level rise in red.
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NOAA would like to work with NSF to make Summit Greenland a full year-round observatory for carbon and other science.
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Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
![Page 20: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Colorado River Basin Overview• 7 States, 2 Nations• Fastest Growing Part of
the U.S.• Over 1,450 miles in length• Basin makes up about 8%
of total U.S. lands• Highly variable Natural
Flow which averages 15 MAF
• Irrigates 3.5 million acres• Very Complicated Legal
EnvironmentSource:Reclamation
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Population Growth in the Colorado River Basin: 1900 – 2000
Population Growth of Colorado River Basin States1900-2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Po
pu
lati
on
in M
illio
ns
Other 6 Basin States Combined
California
1905-1924: 2nd Wettest 20-Year Period in last ~450 Years (Woodhouse et al.)
1978 to 1997: 4th Wettest 20-Year Period in last ~450 Years (Woodhouse et al.)
Population Data Source: www.census.gov
1922: Colorado River Compact Negotiated
California
AZ, CO, NM, NV, UT, WY
Currently: 50+ Million
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Trends in Temperature
Mote, et. al, 2005Regonda, et. al, 2005
Stuff and m
Units in Days
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Hoerling and Eischeid Eye-Opening Results
Article at: wwa.colorado.edu/resources/climate_change.htmlChristensen et al and Wolter/Doesken Colorado Temps as well
1° C since 1970
Another 2° C Projected to 2050
Average Flow = ~5maf by 2050
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Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
![Page 25: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
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Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
![Page 27: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Past and present variability of marine pH. Future predictions for years shown on the right-hand side of the figure are model-derived values based on IPCC mean scenarios. From Pearson and Palmer adapted by Turley et al. and from the Eur-Oceans Fact Sheet No. 7, "Ocean Acidification - the other half of the CO2 problem", May 2007 .
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A new generation of moored buoys is proposed:
Platform and Instrumentation for Continuous Ocean Observation
“PICO”
• Inexpensive
• Moored (Eulerian)
• Low Maintenance (3 year service)
• Easy deployment
• Durable
• Industrial design plan
• Multipurpose ( Crawlers with a variety of sensors that go up and down the taut line that extends to the bottom of the ocean)
• Concept from PMEL
System Description:
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NSF’s Ocean Observatories are a crucial part of IOOS and the observational basis for understanding and predicting a changing ocean.
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Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
![Page 31: Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f285503460f94c4158c/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Will rising temperatures release large
stores of high-latitude carbon?
CARBON: Humankind’s great 21st century challenge.
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CARBON TRACKER Developed by ESRL/GMD
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"The struggle of today, is not altogether for today -- it is for a vast future also. "
--From the December 3, 1861 Message to Congress
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Earth Systems Research Laboratory
Mission: “To observe and understand the earth system and to . . . advance NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scale.”