scientific advisory committee meeting, november 25-26, 2002 dr. daniela jacob regional climate...
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Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Regional climate modelling
Daniela Jacob
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Outline
• Motivation
• Philosophy
• Validation (components and budgets)
• Future climate
• Conclusions and Perspectives
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Motivation
• to understand, model and predict:
• regional climate and its changes with a high degree of detail
• the variability and changes in the hydrological cycle on basin scales
• the development and changes of extreme/rare events influencing local and regional life
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
T42 1/2° ~ 2.5° ~ 50 km or 250 km
The Baltic Sea at different horizontal resolutions
T42 1/6° ~ 1° ~ 18 km or 100 km
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Philosophy
• Consistency global to regional
• Comparison of different physical schemes
• Validation in different climates
• Validation of single components as well as budgets
• coupled systems to describe the entire cycles (eg. water, energy, carbon)
• Future climate scenarios - ensemble
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
REMO domains
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Validation
• Precipitation in the Elbe river basin
• Precipitation intensity in the Elbe river basin
• Total run-off and snow pack in the Baltic Sea catchment
• Precipitation in the Alps
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Baltic catchment
Rhein / Elbe / Oder -catchments
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Reference:Hagemann, S., B. Machenhauer, O.B. Christensen, M. Deque, D. Jacob, R. Jones and P.L. Vidale, 2002: Intercomparison of water and energy budgets simulated by regional climate models applied over Europe MPI Report No. 338, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Total annual Precipitation
REMO 1/2 ° (1979-93) REMO 1/6 ° (1979-88)
Observations (1971-90)
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Indonesia
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Precipitation (mm/day) for 1979 - 1993
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
REMO Orography [m]
Arctic model domain
145 * 121 grid points
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Water budget of the Arctic atmosphere north of 70 N [mm/month]
Year
Winter
Summer
REMO Serreze et al.
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Water Balance Baltic Catchment
1981-1988 (8 year) mean values in [km3]
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Coupled regional systems
• BALTIMOS – Baltic Sea Integrated Model System
• REMO and hydrological models(HD, LARSIM, HBV)
• REMO and ocean models (BSIOM, HOPE-C, HAMSOM)
Baltic catchment with river routingand sub-catchments
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Coupled regional modelling system
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Projects within BALTIMOS
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Future climate
• Precipitation changes: SRES B2 for 2020 to 2050
• Changes in the precipitation intensity distribution in the Elbe river basin
• ensembles
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
SRES B2 1990-99 Precipitation [mm/year]and its Changes [%] for 3 decades
(REMO 1/6°)
Change2040-49
1990-99
Change2030-39
Change2020-29
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Ensemble with REMO (2020 to 2026)
Annual cycle for 2021
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Dr. Daniela Jacob
Conclusions and Perspectives
• Satisfying results with REMO compared to observations in different climatic zones
• 0.16° horizontal resolution adequate for regional and local climate studies
• Water cycles changes can be addressed on basin scales with coupled model systems
• First 30 year long scenario on 0.16° resolution delivers high amount of details in changes of means and extremes
• Ensemble are needed to define uncertainty ranges
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Thank you!