school of environmental sciences university of east anglia how can we fuel all the people all of the...

School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East Anglia

How can we Fuel all the People all of the time?

Dr N. Keith ToveyHard Choices Ahead

EnergyClimateGeological Resources - Fossil Fuels / Nuclear Renewable ResourcesLaws of Nature (thermodynamics)Exploitation of some Energy Resources is limited by technical know-howe.g. Wave PowerThere are also limits to how fast new resources/technologies can be exploited.Some Resources are expensive to exploite.g. photo voltaicsothers such as Gas are cheapHow much energy do we need?What do we need it for?

Standards of comfort have risenHousehold sizes have reducedDesire for more appliances If every household in UK turned off one appliance which is normally on standby, how much would we save? about 500 Wind Turbines the size of Swaffham.Global WarmingSea level riseExtremes of climate - more floodingUK will probably become colderAcid RainPollution etcetc.etcMeasures in last 14 monthsNew Electricity Trading Arrangements(came into force 27th March 2001)hinder exploitation of renewablesconservation like CHPNew Building RegulationsNew Renewable Obligation

Domestic TransportIndustryCommercial/Administration/EducationConversion

Total1.0 kW1.2 kW0.8 kW0.5 kW

1.5 kW======5.0 kWHow much Energy do we need?Per person

2.4 tonnes3.0 tonnes2.9 tonnes1.3 tonnes

======9.6 tonnesEnergy per personCarbon dioxide per person per year

Jean and I shared transport and drove together from Norwich and will return there this afternoon.

How much energy will we have used.?How many hours could we run a one bar electric fire and consume the same amount of energy.?70 kWh - or 70 hoursA Question?

Current Dependency on Fuels for different countries

Energy is getting cheaper, particularly since privatisation and deregulation.

This is making renewables less attractive

Sheet1

1950200020202050

hydro0.1

coal89.515

oil10.432

gas43

rnewables1

nuclear9

1970 1980 1990 2000

Coal and smokeless fuels 89.2 109.0 100.0 94.9

Electricity 84.9 104.0 100.0 78.3

Gas 129.0 86.4 100.0 77.4

Petrol and oil 97.1 107.3 100.0 116.7

Source: DTI (2001a).

1970198019902000

Coal89.210910094.9

Electricity84.910410078.3

Gas12986.410077.4

Petrol97.1107.3100116.7

1970198019902000

Coal10010091.743119266187.0642201835

Electricity10010096.153846153875.2884615385

Gas100100115.740740740789.5833333333

Petrol10010093.1966449208108.7604846226

198019902000

Coal10091.787.1

Electricity10096.275.3

Gas100115.789.6

Petrol10093.2108.8

Sheet1

89.284.912997.1

10910486.4107.3

100100100100

94.978.377.4116.7

Coal

Electricity

Gas

Petrol

Sheet2

Coal

Electricity

Gas

Petrol

Sheet3

Changing Fuel Mix in UKOn present trends, gas will become more and more dominant.In 1990 < 1% of electricity was generated by gas. In 2001 >40% of generation is by gas and rising rapidly.

We can make CO2 targets with all new electricity generation from gas, but then 75% of our electricity will depend on supplies of gas from Russia, Middle East, or North AfricaThese figures assume we achieve 20% renewable generation by 2022

Changing Face of Energy in UKWhere will we get our Gas from after 2010Russia?, Middle East?, Libya?, Algeria?

Sheet1

CountryInstalled MWInstalled MW

20002001

Germany61138754

Spain22353337

Denmark23002417

Italy427697

Netherlands446493

UK406474

Sweden231290

Greece189272

Portugal100125

Ireland118125

Austria7794

France6678

Finland3839

Belgium1331

Luxembourg1015

1276917241

ProjectsTurbinesMegawattsGenerationHomes Equivalent

72945493.41.29TWh323,8031,340,417

1.29

29.8460222887


20002001

Germany611387547003.2

Spain223533372669.6

Denmark230024171933.6

Italy427697557.6

Netherlands446493394.4

UK406474379.2

Sweden231290232

Greece189272217.6

Portugal100125100

Ireland118125100

Austria779475.2

France667862.4

Finland383931.2

Belgium133124.8

Luxembourg101512

Sheet1

2000

2001

Sheet2

Number of Turbine Equivalents

Turbine Numbers (Swaffham equivalents)

Sheet3

OrderTechnology BandNo. of ProjectsCapacity MW (DNC)

HydroMIWLFGBIOMass

NFFO-1Hydro2110.001H10.00100000000

000000000

ize=-1>10.001000000000

000000000

LFG1930.776LFG000000030.7760

000000000

MIW440.63MIW00000040.6300

000000000

Other445.48Wa045.480000000

000000000

SGas65.98Wa05.980000000

000000000

Wind58.138Wi008.138000000

000000000

Totals :59141.005000000000

000000000

NFFO-2Hydro1010.457H10.45700000000

000000000

LFG2646.393LFG000000046.3930

000000000

MIW231.5MIW00000031.500

000000000

Other112.5Wa012.50000000

000000000

SGas1819.059Wa019.0590000000

000000000

Wind2352.452Wi0052.452000000

000000000

Totals :80172.361000000000

000000000

NFFO-3ECAFW - Gasification18Wa080000000

000000000

ECAFW - Other269.5Wa069.50000000

000000000

Hydro811.738H11.73800000000

000000000

LFG4282.071LFG000000082.0710

000000000

MIW677.419MIW00000077.41900

000000000

Wind Large1041.021WiL00041.02100000

000000000

Wind Small109.47Wis00009.470000

000000000

Totals :79299.219000000000

000000000

NFFO-4Hydro72.102H2.10200000000

000000000

LFG51135.711LFG0000000135.7110

000000000

MIW - CHP214.98MIW00000014.9800

000000000

Wind Large12.528WiL0002.52800000

000000000

Wind Small42.755WiS00002.7550000

000000000

Totals :65158.076000000000

000000000

NFFO-5Hydro20.4H0.400000000

000000000

LFG4488.653LFG000000088.6530

000000000

Wind Small21.69WiS00001.690000

000000000

Totals :4890.743000000000

000000000

NI-NFFO-1Hydro71.89H1.8900000000

000000000

Wind612.664Wi0012.664000000

000000000

Totals :1314.554000000000

000000000

NI-NFFO-2Biomass20.304BIO000000000.304

000000000

Hydro10.075H0.07500000000

000000000

Wind22.567Wi002.567000000

000000000

Totals :52.946000000000

000000000

SRO-1Biomass19.8BIO000000009.8

000000000

Hydro64.04H4.0400000000

000000000

Wind725.13Wi0025.13000000

000000000

WTE23.78Wa03.780000000

000000000

Totals :1642.75000000000

000000000

SRO-2Hydro10.83H0.8300000000

000000000

WTE415Wa0150000000

000000000

Totals :515.83000000000

000000000

SRO-3Wave10.2Wave000000.2000

000000000

Wind Large18.29WiL0008.2900000

000000000


000000000

WTE26.12Wa06.120000000

000000000

Totals :717.08000000000

000000000

Grand Total377954.641.533185.419100.95151.83916.3850.2164.529383.60410.104

396.327

bionass10.104

hydro41.533

MIW164.529

LFG383.604

Wave0.2

Wind169.175

Total769.145

Mtonnes of Oil Equivalent200020102020

Production29018370

Demand244257266

Exports46

Imports74196

Imports as % Demand-19%29%74%

Gas Demand:95109125

Gas as % Demand39%42%47%

% Electricity Produced by Gascould be as high as~75% in 2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Sheet1

26.28

potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p

Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p

Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Sheet2

potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p

Sheet3

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Sheet1

26.28

potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p

Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p

Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Sheet2

potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p

Sheet3

Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p

Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p

Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Limpet Wave Generator on Islay

Renewable Energy comparisons In the home - on average 25 - 40 sq m of PhotoVoltaic Cells would provide the equivalent of the electricity requirements of the house

Sheet1

8760MWhTWh

sizwell11880.772848167.28481667

wind1.50.339420.00394218480.4489829.5672

yieldCVGJ/sq kmMWh

biomass121518000540015004856.544

irrradiationeefficiencyWatts outannual (GJ)MWh

PV1151517.250.5439960.1511148.2086956522

4000151.1126.4707828734

3000151.1119.8530871551

17.522.1115408696

26.283020175.0724637681

38222.1449275362

Approximate Annual ProductionArea to produce same output at Sizewell

UK Electricity Demand 2001345 billion units

Sizewell Nuclear Power Station7.2 billion units

Wind (Ecotech)3.9 million units per turbine1500 - 2000 sq km

Biomass1.5 million units per square km5000 sq km

Solar PV100 - 150 units pers sq m50 - 80 sq km

Tidal (Severn Barrage)17 - 25 billion units

Sheet2

Sheet3

Tidal Barrage at La Rance - produces a maximum of 240 MW

Electricity Consumption in a large house in Wales -17th - 20th March 2002Data courtesy of ENV-2C08 studentsWhat do we mean when we say that a particular energy system could supply electricity for N homes?

Electricity Consumption in a detached house in Gorleston -28th March 2002Peak demand 3.02kWAverage 0.38kWAverage UK 0.45 kW Number of Houses supplied by turbine of Size of Swaffham124 - Peak982 - Average833 - Average UKData courtesy of Charlotte TurnerSolar: - Area of Panels175 sq m to meet peak demand30 sq m to meet average demand

National Demand for Electricity also changes rapidlyPrices paid by Suppliers vary dramatically over the day

Chart1

334490.02083333330.02083333330.02083333330.0208333333250370.02083333330.02083333330.02083333330.020833333324469

338870.04166666670.04166666670.04166666670.0416666667244880.04166666670.04166666670.04166666670.041666666723984

342980.06250.06250.06250.0625257980.06250.06250.06250.062525125

340200.08333333330.08333333330.08333333330.0833333333270560.08333333330.08333333330.08333333330.083333333326152

337780.10416666670.10416666670.10416666670.1041666667272410.10416666670.10416666670.10416666670.104166666726138

343820.1250.1250.1250.125270890.1250.1250.1250.12525824

339630.14583333330.14583333330.14583333330.1458333333267370.14583333330.14583333330.14583333330.145833333325239

332350.16666666670.16666666670.16666666670.1666666667264880.16666666670.16666666670.16666666670.166666666724910

326420.18750.18750.18750.1875262320.18750.18750.18750.187524382

323530.20833333330.20833333330.20833333330.2083333333260280.20833333330.20833333330.20833333330.208333333323944

324560.22916666670.22916666670.22916666670.2291666667261950.22916666670.22916666670.22916666670.229166666723666

331410.250.250.250.25265880.250.250.250.2523243

357620.27083333330.27083333330.27083333330.2708333333289030.27083333330.27083333330.27083333330.270833333323752

385990.29166666670.29166666670.29166666670.2916666667317980.29166666670.29166666670.29166666670.291666666724445

424830.31250.31250.31250.3125357160.31250.31250.31250.312525547

446540.33333333330.33333333330.33333333330.3333333333381470.33333333330.33333333330.33333333330.333333333326480

454360.35416666670.35416666670.35416666670.3541666667391880.35416666670.35416666670.35416666670.354166666727395

456300.3750.3750.3750.375393060.3750.3750.3750.37528245

461760.39583333330.39583333330.39583333330.3958333333400360.39583333330.39583333330.39583333330.395833333329573

463050.41666666670.41666666670.41666666670.4166666667403790.41666666670.41666666670.41666666670.416666666730812

463670.43750.43750.43750.4375406030.43750.43750.43750.437531639

462970.45833333330.45833333330.45833333330.4583333333408160.45833333330.45833333330.45833333330.458333333331978

463840.47916666670.47916666670.47916666670.4791666667409860.47916666670.47916666670.47916666670.479166666732143

464790.50.50.50.5411430.50.50.50.532282

465070.52083333330.52083333330.52083333330.5208333333411580.52083333330.52083333330.52083333330.520833333332420

461250.54166666670.54166666670.54166666670.5416666667407070.54166666670.54166666670.54166666670.541666666732232

460390.56250.56250.56250.5625402600.56250.56250.56250.562531653

459900.58333333330.58333333330.58333333330.5833333333400020.58333333330.58333333330.58333333330.583333333331370

462270.60416666670.60416666670.60416666670.6041666667399360.60416666670.60416666670.60416666670.604166666731213

463750.6250.6250.6250.625396640.6250.6250.6250.62530647

463640.64583333330.64583333330.64583333330.6458333333392810.64583333330.64583333330.64583333330.645833333330513

478610.66666666670.66666666670.66666666670.6666666667394970.66666666670.66666666670.66666666670.666666666730410

497110.68750.68750.68750.6875398580.68750.68750.68750.687530457

510720.70833333330.70833333330.70833333330.7083333333399880.70833333330.70833333330.70833333330.708333333331138

515200.72916666670.72916666670.72916666670.7291666667397650.72916666670.72916666670.72916666670.729166666731639

509130.750.750.750.75389500.750.750.750.7531894

503380.77083333330.77083333330.77083333330.7708333333381060.77083333330.77083333330.77083333330.770833333331819

496290.79166666670.79166666670.79166666670.7916666667374590.79166666670.79166666670.79166666670.791666666731532

483260.81250.81250.81250.8125365880.81250.81250.81250.812531234

472940.83333333330.83333333330.83333333330.8333333333364450.83333333330.83333333330.83333333330.833333333331216

459910.85416666670.85416666670.85416666670.8541666667365000.85416666670.85416666670.85416666670.854166666731352

451140.8750.8750.8750.875378040.8750.8750.8750.87532632

437310.89583333330.89583333330.89583333330.8958333333383330.89583333330.89583333330.89583333330.895833333333715

415760.91666666670.91666666670.91666666670.9166666667367350.91666666670.91666666670.91666666670.916666666732766

399870.93750.93750.93750.9375354590.93750.93750.93750.937531446

382070.95833333330.95833333330.95833333330.9583333333331870.95833333330.95833333330.95833333330.958333333329907

362350.97916666670.97916666670.97916666670.9791666667310360.97916666670.97916666670.97916666670.979166666728593

35012111129020111126787

357571.02083333331.02083333331.02083333331.0208333333274151.02083333331.02083333331.02083333331.020833333325332

361621.04166666671.04166666671.04166666671.0416666667269331.04166666671.04166666671.04166666671.041666666724376

363671.06251.06251.06251.0625282541.06251.06251.06251.062525349

358311.08333333331.08333333331.08333333331.0833333333295051.08333333331.08333333331.08333333331.083333333326487

357281.10416666671.10416666671.10416666671.1041666667295981.10416666671.10416666671.10416666671.104166666726629

362451.1251.1251.1251.125295361.1251.1251.1251.12526397

354461.14583333331.14583333331.14583333331.1458333333290421.14583333331.14583333331.14583333331.145833333325898

345861.16666666671.16666666671.16666666671.1666666667287181.16666666671.16666666671.16666666671.166666666725645

338571.18751.18751.18751.1875283031.18751.18751.18751.187525245

333931.20833333331.20833333331.20833333331.2083333333280611.20833333331.20833333331.20833333331.208333333325136

333071.22916666671.22916666671.22916666671.2291666667282661.22916666671.22916666671.22916666671.229166666725193

337891.251.251.251.25284531.251.251.251.2525631

361691.27083333331.27083333331.27083333331.2708333333304891.27083333331.27083333331.27083333331.270833333328122

388511.29166666671.29166666671.29166666671.2916666667333071.29166666671.29166666671.29166666671.291666666731114

421931.31251.31251.31251.3125372701.31251.31251.31251.312535151

444061.33333333331.33333333331.33333333331.3333333333398871.33333333331.33333333331.33333333331.33333333331.3333333333

454211.35416666671.35416666671.35416666671.3541666667410801.35416666671.35416666671.35416666671.35416666671.3541666667

451831.3751.3751.3751.375407651.3751.3751.3751.3751.375

455311.39583333331.39583333331.39583333331.3958333333414131.39583333331.39583333331.39583333331.39583333331.3958333333

456721.41666666671.41666666671.41666666671.4166666667417251.41666666671.41666666671.41666666671.41666666671.4166666667

456101.43751.43751.43751.4375417231.43751.43751.43751.43751.4375

454911.45833333331.45833333331.45833333331.4583333333418311.45833333331.45833333331.45833333331.45833333331.4583333333

454181.47916666671.47916666671.47916666671.4791666667418441.47916666671.47916666671.47916666671.47916666671.4791666667

453441.51.51.51.5419721.51.51.51.51.5

453851.52083333331.52083333331.52083333331.5208333333420371.52083333331.52083333331.52083333331.52083333331.5208333333

450431.54166666671.54166666671.54166666671.5416666667415321.54166666671.54166666671.54166666671.54166666671.5416666667

449831.56251.56251.56251.5625410631.56251.56251.56251.56251.5625

448581.58333333331.58333333331.58333333331.5833333333408111.58333333331.58333333331.58333333331.58333333331.5833333333

452321.60416666671.60416666671.60416666671.6041666667408901.60416666671.60416666671.60416666671.60416666671.6041666667

452561.6251.6251.6251.625406011.6251.6251.6251.6251.625

453431.64583333331.64583333331.64583333331.6458333333402811.64583333331.64583333331.64583333331.64583333331.6458333333

467341.66666666671.66666666671.66666666671.6666666667400571.66666666671.66666666671.66666666671.66666666671.6666666667

486561.68751.68751.68751.6875410201.68751.68751.68751.68751.6875

502521.70833333331.70833333331.70833333331.7083333333413501.70833333331.70833333331.70833333331.70833333331.7083333333

506811.72916666671.72916666671.72916666671.7291666667412151.72916666671.72916666671.72916666671.72916666671.7291666667

501461.751.751.751.75403801.751.751.751.751.75

495651.77083333331.77083333331.77083333331.7708333333394681.77083333331.77083333331.77083333331.77083333331.7708333333

487471.79166666671.79166666671.79166666671.7916666667389601.79166666671.79166666671.79166666671.79166666671.7916666667

476851.81251.81251.81251.8125384771.81251.81251.81251.81251.8125

462611.83333333331.83333333331.83333333331.8333333333378611.83333333331.83333333331.83333333331.83333333331.8333333333

454431.85416666671.85416666671.85416666671.8541666667377341.85416666671.85416666671.85416666671.85416666671.8541666667

440461.8751.8751.8751.875386501.8751.8751.8751.8751.875

430421.89583333331.89583333331.89583333331.8958333333385431.89583333331.89583333331.89583333331.89583333331.8958333333

411631.91666666671.91666666671.91666666671.9166666667373351.91666666671.91666666671.91666666671.91666666671.9166666667

396171.93751.93751.93751.9375357451.93751.93751.93751.93751.9375

378791.95833333331.95833333331.95833333331.9583333333336331.95833333331.95833333331.95833333331.95833333331.9583333333

358171.97916666671.97916666671.97916666671.9791666667314971.97916666671.97916666671.97916666671.97916666671.9791666667

3491622222947222222

17-18th December 2001

29-30th April 2002

6-7th May 2002

Time (hrs)

MW

UK Electricity Demand

Sheet1

17-18th December 200129-30th April 20026-7th May 2002

0:3012/17/01112/17/01 0:35334494/29/0214/28/02 23:30250375/6/0215/5/02 23:3024469

1:0012/17/01212/17/01 1:05338874/29/0224/29/02 0:01244885/6/0225/6/02 0:0523984

1:3012/17/01312/17/01 1:35342984/29/0234/29/02 0:30257985/6/0235/6/02 0:3025125

2:0012/17/01412/17/01 2:05340204/29/0244/29/02 1:01270565/6/0245/6/02 1:0026152

2:3012/17/01512/17/01 2:35337784/29/0254/29/02 1:30272415/6/0255/6/02 1:3026138

3:0012/17/01612/17/01 3:01343824/29/0264/29/02 2:00270895/6/0265/6/02 2:0025824

3:3012/17/01712/17/01 3:30339634/29/0274/29/02 2:30267375/6/0275/6/02 2:3525239

4:0012/17/01812/17/01 4:00332354/29/0284/29/02 3:00264885/6/0285/6/02 3:0124910

4:3012/17/01912/17/01 4:30326424/29/0294/29/02 3:35262325/6/0295/6/02 3:3524382

5:0012/17/011012/17/01 5:00323534/29/02104/29/02 4:05260285/6/02105/6/02 4:0523944

5:3012/17/011112/17/01 5:30324564/29/02114/29/02 4:30261955/6/02115/6/02 4:3523666

6:0012/17/011212/17/01 6:00331414/29/02124/29/02 5:02265885/6/02125/6/02 5:0123243

6:3012/17/011312/17/01 6:35357624/29/02134/29/02 5:31289035/6/02135/6/02 5:3523752

7:0012/17/011412/17/01 7:01385994/29/02144/29/02 6:01317985/6/02145/6/02 6:0124445

7:3012/17/011512/17/01 7:35424834/29/02154/29/02 6:30357165/6/02155/6/02 6:3025547

8:0012/17/011612/17/01 8:05446544/29/02164/29/02 7:00381475/6/02165/6/02 7:0026480

8:3012/17/011712/17/01 8:30454364/29/02174/29/02 7:35391885/6/02175/6/02 7:3527395

9:0012/17/011812/17/01 9:01456304/29/02184/29/02 8:01393065/6/02185/6/02 8:0528245

9:3012/17/011912/17/01 9:30461764/29/02194/29/02 8:31400365/6/02195/6/02 8:3029573

10:0012/17/012012/17/01 10:01463054/29/02204/29/02 9:00403795/6/02205/6/02 9:0530812

10:3012/17/012112/17/01 10:30463674/29/02214/29/02 9:35406035/6/02215/6/02 9:3031639

11:0012/17/012212/17/01 11:01462974/29/02224/29/02 10:01408165/6/02225/6/02 10:0131978

11:3012/17/012312/17/01 11:31463844/29/02234/29/02 10:30409865/6/02235/6/02 10:3532143

12:0012/17/012412/17/01 12:06464794/29/02244/29/02 11:05411435/6/02245/6/02 11:0632282

12:3012/17/012512/17/01 12:36465074/29/02254/29/02 11:35411585/6/02255/6/02 11:3532420

13:0012/17/012612/17/01 13:06461254/29/02264/29/02 12:01407075/6/02265/6/02 12:0632232

13:3012/17/012712/17/01 13:30460394/29/02274/29/02 12:30402605/6/02275/6/02 12:3531653

14:0012/17/012812/17/01 14:01459904/29/02284/29/02 13:00400025/6/02285/6/02 13:0531370

14:3012/17/012912/17/01 14:31462274/29/02294/29/02 13:36399365/6/02295/6/02 13:3031213

15:0012/17/013012/17/01 15:00463754/29/02304/29/02 14:00396645/6/02305/6/02 14:0530647

15:3012/17/013112/17/01 15:30463644/29/02314/29/02 14:31392815/6/02315/6/02 14:3530513

16:0012/17/013212/17/01 16:01478614/29/02324/29/02 15:05394975/6/02325/6/02 15:0530410

16:3012/17/013312/17/01 16:31497114/29/02334/29/02 15:30398585/6/02335/6/02 15:3030457

17:0012/17/013412/17/01 17:01510724/29/02344/29/02 16:00399885/6/02345/6/02 16:0031138

17:3012/17/013512/17/01 17:30515204/29/02354/29/02 16:30397655/6/02355/6/02 16:3031639

18:0012/17/013612/17/01 18:01509134/29/02364/29/02 17:01389505/6/02365/6/02 17:0531894

18:3012/17/013712/17/01 18:31503384/29/02374/29/02 17:30381065/6/02375/6/02 17:3531819

19:0012/17/013812/17/01 19:00496294/29/02384/29/02 18:01374595/6/02385/6/02 18:0031532

19:3012/17/013912/17/01 19:30483264/29/02394/29/02 18:30365885/6/02395/6/02 18:3031234

20:0012/17/014012/17/01 20:05472944/29/02404/29/02 19:05364455/6/02405/6/02 19:0031216

20:3012/17/014112/17/01 20:35459914/29/02414/29/02 19:35365005/6/02415/6/02 19:3031352

21:0012/17/014212/17/01 21:06451144/29/02424/29/02 20:00378045/6/02425/6/02 20:0332632

21:3012/17/014312/17/01 21:36437314/29/02434/29/02 20:30383335/6/02435/6/02 20:3033715

22:0012/17/014412/17/01 22:06415764/29/02444/29/02 21:00367355/6/02445/6/02 21:0032766

22:3012/17/014512/17/01 22:35399874/29/02454/29/02 21:30354595/6/02455/6/02 21:3031446

23:0012/17/014612/17/01 23:06382074/29/02464/29/02 22:003318729907

23:3012/17/014712/17/01 23:36362354/29/02474/29/02 22:303103628593

0:0012/17/014812/18/01 0:02350124/29/02484/29/02 23:002902026787

0:3012/18/01112/18/01 0:30357574/30/0214/29/02 23:302741525332

1:0012/18/01212/18/01 1:00361624/30/0224/30/02 0:002693324376

1:3012/18/01312/18/01 1:30363674/30/0234/30/02 0:302825425349

2:0012/18/01412/18/01 2:01358314/30/0244/30/02 1:002950526487

2:3012/18/01512/18/01 2:36357284/30/0254/30/02 1:302959826629

3:0012/18/01612/18/01 3:00362454/30/0264/30/02 2:002953626397

3:3012/18/01712/18/01 3:36354464/30/0274/30/02 2:302904225898

4:0012/18/01812/18/01 4:06345864/30/0284/30/02 3:002871825645

4:3012/18/01912/18/01 4:35338574/30/0294/30/02 3:302830325245

5:0012/18/011012/18/01 5:05333934/30/02104/30/02 4:012806125136

5:3012/18/011112/18/01 5:35333074/30/02114/30/02 4:352826625193

6:0012/18/011212/18/01 6:05337894/30/02124/30/02 5:012845325631

6:3012/18/011312/18/01 6:30361694/30/02134/30/02 5:303048928122

7:0612/18/011412/18/01 7:01388514/30/02144/30/02 6:053330731114

7:3012/18/011512/18/01 7:30421934/30/02154/30/02 6:353727035151

8:0012/18/011612/18/01 8:01444064/30/02164/30/02 7:0539887

8:3012/18/011712/18/01 8:30454214/30/02174/30/02 7:3541080

9:0012/18/011812/18/01 9:01451834/30/02184/30/02 8:0040765

9:3012/18/011912/18/01 10:31455314/30/02194/30/02 8:3541413

10:0012/18/012012/18/01 10:32456724/30/02204/30/02 9:0541725

10:3012/18/012112/18/01 10:33456104/30/02214/30/02 9:3541723

11:0012/18/012212/18/01 11:06454914/30/02224/30/02 10:0141831

11:3012/18/012312/18/01 11:36454184/30/02234/30/02 10:3041844

12:0012/18/012412/18/01 12:01453444/30/02244/30/02 11:0541972

12:3012/18/012512/18/01 12:35453854/30/02254/30/02 11:3042037

13:0012/18/012612/18/01 13:06450434/30/02264/30/02 12:0541532

13:3012/18/012712/18/01 13:36449834/30/02274/30/02 12:3041063

14:0012/18/012812/18/01 14:06448584/30/02284/30/02 13:0040811

14:3012/18/012912/18/01 14:36452324/30/02294/30/02 13:3540890

15:0012/18/013012/18/01 15:01452564/30/02304/30/02 14:0040601

15:3012/18/013112/18/01 15:31453434/30/02314/30/02 14:3540281

16:0012/18/013212/18/01 16:00467344/30/02324/30/02 15:0540057

16:3012/18/013312/18/01 16:30486564/30/02334/30/02 15:3041020

17:0012/18/013412/18/01 17:00502524/30/02344/30/02 16:0041350

17:3012/18/013512/18/01 17:31506814/30/02354/30/02 16:3041215

18:0012/18/013612/18/01 18:01501464/30/02364/30/02 17:0540380

18:3012/18/013712/18/01 18:31495654/30/02374/30/02 17:3039468

19:0012/18/013812/18/01 19:01487474/30/02384/30/02 18:0138960

19:3012/18/013912/18/01 19:30476854/30/02394/30/02 18:3038477

20:0012/18/014012/18/01 20:01462614/30/02404/30/02 19:0237861

20:3012/18/014112/18/01 20:30454434/30/02414/30/02 19:3037734

21:0012/18/014212/18/01 21:00440464/30/02424/30/02 20:0238650

21:3012/18/014312/18/01 21:30430424/30/02434/30/02 20:3038543

22:0012/18/014412/18/01 22:01411634/30/02444/30/02 21:0037335

22:3012/18/014512/18/01 22:31396174/30/02454/30/02 21:3135745

23:0012/18/014612/18/01 23:00378794/30/02464/30/02 22:0033633

23:3012/18/014712/18/01 23:31358174/30/02474/30/02 22:3031497

0:0012/18/014812/19/01 0:01349164/30/02484/30/02 23:0029472

Sheet1

17-18th December 2001

29-30th April 2002

6-7th May 2002

Time (hrs)

MW

UK Electricity Demand

Sheet2

Sheet3

How are we going to meet these demands for electricity in the future? The Energy Review indicates 10% by renewables by 2010 and 20% by 2020.

In order to get more than 10% of electricity from renewables by 2010 and 20% by 2020, build rates for the leading options would need to be at levels never before seen in the UK. Onshore and offshore wind would need to be installed at a rate of between 1-2 GW per year (i.e. 1000 - 1500 turbines the size of Swaffham every year).

However, 1.5 GW and 1.6 GW of onshore wind was built in Germany in 1999 and 2000 respectively, and a further 1.2 GW was installed in the first eight months of this year (2001). Build rates of 1 GW per year were also seen Spain in 2000, and 600MW in Denmark in the same year.

Wind Energy in EuropeThe European Commission directive 2001:

Member States are required to adopt national targets for renewables that are consistent with reaching the Commissions overall target of 12.1 per cent electricity from renewables by 2010. UKs indicative target is 10 per cent electricity.

Chart1

7003.2

2669.6

1933.6

557.6

394.4

379.2

232

217.6

100

100

75.2

62.4

31.2

24.8

12



Sheet1


20002001

Germany61138754

Spain22353337

Denmark23002417

Italy427697

Netherlands446493

UK406474

Sweden231290

Greece189272

Portugal100125

Ireland118125

Austria7794

France6678

Finland3839

Belgium1331

Luxembourg1015

1276917241


72945493.41.29TWh323,8031,340,417

1.29

29.8460222887


20002001

Germany611387547003.2

Spain223533372669.6

Denmark230024171933.6

Italy427697557.6


UK406474379.2

Sweden231290232

Greece189272217.6

Portugal100125100

Ireland118125100

Austria779475.2

France667862.4

Finland383931.2

Belgium133124.8

Luxembourg101512

Sheet1

2000

2001

Sheet2



Sheet3


Hydro

NFFO-1Hydro2110.001H10.00100000

000000

ize=-1>10.001000000

000000

LFG1930.776Wa030.7760000

000000

MIW440.63Wa040.630000

000000

Other445.48Wa045.480000

000000

SGas65.98Wa05.980000

000000

Wind58.138Wi008.138000

000000

Totals :59141.005000000

000000

NFFO-2Hydro1010.457H10.45700000

000000

LFG2646.393Wa046.3930000

000000

MIW231.5Wa031.50000

000000

Other112.5Wa012.50000

000000

SGas1819.059Wa019.0590000

000000

Wind2352.452Wi0052.452000

000000

Totals :80172.361000000

000000


000000

ECAFW - Other269.5Wa069.50000

000000

Hydro811.738H11.73800000

000000

LFG4282.071Wa082.0710000

000000

MIW677.419Wa077.4190000

000000

Wind Large1041.021WiL00041.02100

000000

Wind Small109.47Wis00009.470

000000

Totals :79299.219000000

000000

NFFO-4Hydro72.102H2.10200000

000000

LFG51135.711Wa0135.7110000

000000

MIW - CHP214.98Wa014.980000

000000


000000


000000

Totals :65158.076000000

000000

NFFO-5Hydro20.4H0.400000

000000

LFG4488.653Wa088.6530000

000000


000000

Totals :4890.743000000

000000

NI-NFFO-1Hydro71.89H1.8900000

000000

Wind612.664Wi0012.664000

000000

Totals :1314.554000000

000000

NI-NFFO-2Biomass20.304Wa00.3040000

000000

Hydro10.075H0.07500000

000000

Wind22.567Wi002.567000

000000

Totals :52.946000000

000000

SRO-1Biomass19.8Wa09.80000

000000

Hydro64.04H4.0400000

000000

Wind725.13Wi0025.13000

000000

WTE23.78Wa03.780000

000000

Totals :1642.75000000

000000

SRO-2Hydro10.83H0.8300000

000000

WTE415Wa0150000

000000

Totals :515.83000000

000000

SRO-3Wave10.2Wave000000.2

000000


000000


000000

WTE26.12Wa06.120000

000000

Totals :717.08000000

000000

Grand Total377954.641.533743.656100.95151.83916.3850.20

954.564

Chart1

61138754

22353337

23002417

427697

446493

406474

231290

189272

100125

118125

7794

6678

3839

1331

1015

2000

2001

MW

Sheet1


20002001

Germany61138754

Spain22353337

Denmark23002417

Italy427697

Netherlands446493

UK406474

Sweden231290

Greece189272

Portugal100125

Ireland118125

Austria7794

France6678

Finland3839

Belgium1331

Luxembourg1015

1276917241


72945493.41.29TWh323,8031,340,417

1.29

29.8460222887


20002001

Germany611387547003.2

Spain223533372669.6

Denmark230024171933.6

Italy427697557.6


UK406474379.2

Sweden231290232

Greece189272217.6

Portugal100125100

Ireland118125100

Austria779475.2

France667862.4

Finland383931.2

Belgium133124.8

Luxembourg101512

Sheet1

2000

2001

MW

Sheet2



Sheet4


HydroMIWLFGBIOMass

NFFO-1Hydro2110.001H10.00100000000

000000000

ize=-1>10.001000000000

000000000

LFG1930.776LFG000000030.7760

000000000

MIW440.63MIW00000040.6300

000000000

Other445.48Wa045.480000000

000000000

SGas65.98Wa05.980000000

000000000

Wind58.138Wi008.138000000

000000000

Totals :59141.005000000000

000000000

NFFO-2Hydro1010.457H10.45700000000

000000000

LFG2646.393LFG000000046.3930

000000000

MIW231.5MIW00000031.500

000000000

Other112.5Wa012.50000000

000000000

SGas1819.059Wa019.0590000000

000000000

Wind2352.452Wi0052.452000000

000000000

Totals :80172.361000000000

000000000


000000000

ECAFW - Other269.5Wa069.50000000

000000000

Hydro811.738H11.73800000000

000000000

LFG4282.071LFG000000082.0710

000000000

MIW677.419MIW00000077.41900

000000000

Wind Large1041.021WiL00041.02100000

000000000

Wind Small109.47Wis00009.470000

000000000

Totals :79299.219000000000

000000000

NFFO-4Hydro72.102H2.10200000000

000000000

LFG51135.711LFG0000000135.7110

000000000

MIW - CHP214.98MIW00000014.9800

000000000

Wind Large12.528WiL0002.52800000

000000000

Wind Small42.755WiS00002.7550000

000000000

Totals :65158.076000000000

000000000

NFFO-5Hydro20.4H0.400000000

000000000

LFG4488.653LFG000000088.6530

000000000


000000000

Totals :4890.743000000000

000000000

NI-NFFO-1Hydro71.89H1.8900000000

000000000

Wind612.664Wi0012.664000000

000000000

Totals :1314.554000000000

000000000

NI-NFFO-2Biomass20.304BIO000000000.304

000000000

Hydro10.075H0.07500000000

000000000

Wind22.567Wi002.567000000

000000000

Totals :52.946000000000

000000000

SRO-1Biomass19.8BIO000000009.8

000000000

Hydro64.04H4.0400000000

000000000

Wind725.13Wi0025.13000000

000000000

WTE23.78Wa03.780000000

000000000

Totals :1642.75000000000

000000000

SRO-2Hydro10.83H0.8300000000

000000000

WTE415Wa0150000000

000000000

Totals :515.83000000000

000000000

SRO-3Wave10.2Wave000000.2000

000000000


000000000


000000000

WTE26.12Wa06.120000000

000000000

Totals :717.08000000000

000000000

Grand Total377954.641.533185.419100.95151.83916.3850.2164.529383.60410.104

396.327

bionass10.104

hydro41.533

MIW164.529

LFG383.604

Wave0.2

Wind169.175

Total769.145

Sheet3

areaaverage output

104.920.810.28224.63711.1

NorfolkBreckland113,654443282961,7982,467xcel.numberformat: #,##0" width=72>2,467

Broadland113,896423462811,6612,330

Great Yarmouth89,301362532321,4381,958

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk131,214493883742,1522,964

North Norfolk96,913332873012,0482,669

Norwich126,221483382721,8622,521

South Norfolk105,778383162661,6252,246

776,977

59000000220000002.6818181818590000003505932.2033898305

11365442379.457627118640000.16951783052200000088

776977289720.23728813640001.1588809492

681924000681924MWh

207.5872146119

651001.0634734776

Mtonnes of Oil Equivalent200020102020

Production29018370

Demand244257266

Exports46

Imports74196

Imports as % Demand-19%29%74%

Gas Demand:95109125

Gas as % Demand39%42%47%

% Electricity Produced by Gascould be as high as~75% in 2020

Increase in Renewable Component for Electricity Generation to meet Government Target of 10% by 2010Note: If we meet this target, it will hardly change the non-renewable component - i.e. the renewable deployment will just keep pace with increase in demand.Even if we do meet target (which is far from certain), our CO2 emissions will rise following from closure of nuclear plant.

Chart1

21.2350.81999344.8

22353.22000347.3

22.5355.72001349.4

23358.26.7342.1

23.9360.67342.6

24.4363.17.5343.1

24.9365.68343.7

25.5368.59342.7

26.4371.410341.7

27374.311340.6

27.6377.312341.5

28.1380.313342.3

TWh

Renewable Electricity

TWh

Non-Renewable Electricity

UK Annual Consumption (TWh)

Sheet1

1 deg every 4 minutes

120

180

240

diameterdistanceangle

7010019.29

7015013.13

702009.93

702507.97

703006.65

703505.71

704005.00206.66666666670.0053272451

704504.45

705004.00

705503.64

706003.34

706503.08

707002.86

data

TWhTWhTWhRenewable ElectricityTWhTWhTWh%Non-Renewable Electricity

1999300.521.229.1350.86344.8

2000301.92229.3353.25.9347.3

200130422.529.2355.76.3349.4

2002306.12329358.216.16.79.43.1342.1

2003307.923.928.9360.6187113.6342.6

2004309.724.429.1363.1207.512.54343.1

2005311.824.928.9365.621.9813.94.5343.7

2006314.325.528.7368.525.8916.85.3342.7

2007316.426.428.6371.429.71019.76.2341.7

2008318.92728.4374.333.71122.77.1340.6

2009321.427.628.3377.335.81223.87.4341.5

2010323.628.128.5380.33813257.7342.3

250000002853.8812785388

4756.4687975647

3805.1750380518

475.6468797565

data

TWh


TWh



2001

EstimatedEstimatedEstimated Estimated Renewables Contri- Contri- RO as

Sales by Consump0sses Total Target (tobutionbution % of

Licensed tion byElectricity reach 10% from Non-from Sales

Suppliersauto Available in 2010) EligibleEligible

generatorsRenewables Renewables

Required

TWh TWhTWhTWh TWh TWh TWh %

1999 300.521.229.1350.8 6.0

2000 301.92229.3353.2 5.9

2001 304.022.529.2355.7 6.3

2002 306.12329358.2 16.1 6.7 9.43.1

2003 307.923.928.9360.6 18.0 7.0 11.03.6

2004 309.724.429.1363.1 20.0 7.5 12.54

2005 311.824.928.9365.6 21.9 8.0 13.94.5

2006 314.325.528.7368.5 25.8 9.0 16.85.3

2007 316.426.428.6371.4 29.7 10.0 19.76.2

2008 318.92728.4374.3 33.7 11.0 22.77.1

2009 321.427.628.3377.3 35.8 12.0 23.87.4

2010 323.628.128.5380.3 38.0 13.0 25.07.7

by licensed (GB)as %of sales (GB)

suppliersin GB

TWh TWh %

2001/2002310.9

2002/2003313.69.43

2003/2004316.213.54.3

2004/2005318.715.64.9

2005/2006320.617.75.5

2006/2007321.421.56.7

2007/2008322.225.47.9

2008/200932329.49.1

2009/2010323.831.59.7

2010/2011324.333.610.4

2011/2012to 202Jun-2027 10.4

Distribution of Renewable Projects

The UK target for New Renewables set in 1993, was the building of 1500MW of new renewable capacity by 2000.How did we do?

tab10_2

Table 10.2

Renewables Obligation Status Summary as at 30 June 2000

TechnologyContractedProjectsLive Projects

No.Capacity MW DNCNo.Capacity MW DNC

Biomass32255.96664.284

Hydro14695.4125638.798

Landfill Gas (LFG)329699.713154322.378

Municipal and Industrial Waste (MIW)901398.15915190.349

Sewage Gas3133.8642425.039

Wave32--

Wind3021153.73869161.2

Total9333638.846324802.048

TechnologyProjectsCapacity MW

Biomass664.284

Hydro5638.798

Landfill Gas (LFG)154322.378

Municipal and Industrial Waste (MIW)15190.349

Sewage Gas2425.039

Wave--

Wind69161.2

Total324802.048

compared to planned1500

Sheet1

1 deg every 4 minutes

120

180

240

diameterdistanceangle

7010019.29

7015013.13

702009.93

702507.97

703006.65

703505.71

704005.00206.66666666670.0053272451

704504.45

705004.00

705503.64

706003.34

706503.08

707002.86

data

TWhTWhTWhRenewable ElectricityTWhTWhTWh%Non-Renewable Electricity

1999300.521.229.1350.86344.8

2000301.92229.3353.25.9347.3

200130422.529.2355.76.3349.4

2002306.12329358.216.16.79.43.1342.1

2003307.923.928.9360.6187113.6342.6

2004309.724.429.1363.1207.512.54343.1

2005311.824.928.9365.621.9813.94.5343.7

2006314.325.528.7368.525.8916.85.3342.7

2007316.426.428.6371.429.71019.76.2341.7

2008318.92728.4374.333.71122.77.1340.6

2009321.427.628.3377.335.81223.87.4341.5

2010323.628.128.5380.33813257.7342.3

250000002853.8812785388

4756.4687975647

3805.1750380518

475.6468797565

data

TWh


TWh



2001

EstimatedEstimatedEstimated Estimated Renewables Contri- Contri- RO as

Sales by Consump0sses Total Target (tobutionbution % of

Licensed tion byElectricity reach 10% from Non-from Sales

Suppliersauto Available in 2010) EligibleEligible

generatorsRenewables Renewables

Required

TWh TWhTWhTWh TWh TWh TWh %

1999 300.521.229.1350.8 6.0

2000 301.92229.3353.2 5.9

2001 304.022.529.2355.7 6.3

2002 306.12329358.2 16.1 6.7 9.43.1

2003 307.923.928.9360.6 18.0 7.0 11.03.6

2004 309.724.429.1363.1 20.0 7.5 12.54

2005 311.824.928.9365.6 21.9 8.0 13.94.5

2006 314.325.528.7368.5 25.8 9.0 16.85.3

2007 316.426.428.6371.4 29.7 10.0 19.76.2

2008 318.92728.4374.3 33.7 11.0 22.77.1

2009 321.427.628.3377.3 35.8 12.0 23.87.4

2010 323.628.128.5380.3 38.0 13.0 25.07.7

by licensed (GB)as %of sales (GB)

suppliersin GB

TWh TWh %

2001/2002310.9

2002/2003313.69.43

2003/2004316.213.54.3

2004/2005318.715.64.9

2005/2006320.617.75.5

2006/2007321.421.56.7

2007/2008322.225.47.9

2008/200932329.49.1

2009/2010323.831.59.7

2010/2011324.333.610.4

2011/2012to 202Jun-2027 10.4

tab10_2

Table 10.2

Renewables Obligation Status Summary as at 30 June 2000

TechnologyContractedProjectsLive Projects

No.Capacity MW DNCNo.Capacity MW DNC

Biomass32255.96664.284

Hydro14695.4125638.798

Landfill Gas (LFG)329699.713154322.378

Municipal and Industrial Waste (MIW)901398.15915190.349

Sewage Gas3133.8642425.039

Wave32--

Wind3021153.73869161.2

Total9333638.846324802.048

Position at 30th June 2000

TechnologyProjectsCapacity MW

Biomass664.284

Hydro5638.798

Landfill Gas (LFG)154322.378

Municipal and Industrial Waste (MIW)15190.349

Sewage Gas2425.039

Wave--

Wind69161.2

Total324802.048

compared to planned1500

As of 30th September 2001377954.6

Proposed Offshore Wind Turbine locationsEast of England contribution to renewables target for UK for 2010 is 14% (reflecting in part its population).Onshore windOffshore WindBiomassAround 1700 GWh will need to come from onshore wind representing 110+ Turbines the size of Swaffham in Norfolk.

Digital Map of part of Norfolk

Norwich is in bottom left hand corner

Area: 105 sq kmsA Strategic assessment of Wind Energy / Biomass Potential

Number of Turbines65

Mean output 24.4 MW

Area for Turbines20.7 sq kmMinimum exclusion zone (400m) around houses/towns.We could add other Planning exclusions etc - areas of particular landscape value etc.

Number of Turbines33

Mean output 12.4 MW

Area for Turbines10.2 sq kmLarge exclusion zone (800m) around houses/towns.

One Blade, or Two, or Three?

Should we be more concerned with present or future generations?Are we concerned about CO2 emissions?Global warming - probably making UK colder and wetter - sea level rise - more frequent floodingDo we want many more Wind Turbines? ~ 500 - 1000 + per year on land initially - and eventually say 2003/4 + in increasing numbers at sea?Do we want to see continued development of renewable energy and On shore Wind Energy in particular? Are we prepared to pay more for Renewables e.g. SolarWhat are Our Priorities?

Energy from Waste Incineration/ Land Fill Gas?Extensive use of Biomass (still in its infancy) - large areas of countryside used for growing energyPhotovoltaics are very expensiveother technologies either have insufficient resource (hydro) or are technically constrained at present (Wave, Tidal Stream) .If the answer to the above results in small amounts being available then it we shall see an increase in CO2 and other gases by 2020UNLESSIf our answer in No. How are we going to reduce our CO2 emissions?

Do we want Nuclear Power (French Method)?If our answer is NOWill we be happy to have 80% of our gas (which will then also supply 75% of our electricity) supplied from countries such as Russia, Middle East, Libya, or Algeria? If our answer is NO.Do we want to go back to using coal for electricity generation?.BUT: Are we confident that viable carbon sequestration techniques will become available?AND: Do we want more coal mines / coal fields - North Norfolk?If our answer is still NOWe continue to exploit gas at increasing rates for the generation of electricity. We will become a net importer before 2010.

Remember 500 Wind Turbines the size of Swaffham.If we all switched our TVs off , rather than leaving them on standby, it would save the equivalent of one power station output.Advertisement from National PressHow do we persuade people to conserve energy.It is a primarily social issue of individual responsibility.not just a technical or governmental issue.

We have difficult choices to make.No one solution is free of problemsWhat is the best way forward which will provide security of energy supply for the future and yet recognise the concerns of individuals both locally and nationally?If we are not positive about our approach then there is every chance we shall suffer the California Syndrome.Major problems have occurred in recent years in the supply of electricity because no significant new generation (of any form) has been built in California for over 10 years. New build has been constrained by environmental regulation and high levels of local opposition (by companies and consumers) to siting of new generation.In conclusion

Chart1

25528

25060

26713

28241

28606

28594

28030

27827

27408

27100

27285

27983

30217

33031

36878

39153

40096

39826

40292

40450

40381

40441

40473

40486

40355

39983

39562

39258

39613

39294

39044

39152

39593

39887

39680

38820

38132

37397

36859

36822

37723

39521

38784

36992

35467

33378

31375

29247

27728

27393

28917

30418

30756

30568

30089

29852

29376

29021

29127

29549

31512

34082

37683

39720

40282

39798

40026

39955

39627

39583

39543

39594

39662

39064

38639

38375

38625

38267

37890

April 15th 2002

April 16th 2002

demand

Time

MW

prices

HDRSYSTEM BUY SELL DATA

SSB2002041518.8358618.21

SSB2002041529.0208617.99

SSB2002041539.59914150

SSB2002041549.629929.62992

SSB2002041559.382329.38232

SSB2002041569.384129.38412

SSB2002041579.681579.68157

SSB2002041589.464159.46415

SSB2002041599.562429.56242

SSB20020415109.171219.17121

SSB20020415119.260049.26004

SSB20020415129.749369.74936

SSB200204151310.0391110.03911

SSB200204151410.7813124.46951

SSB200204151511.4074124.26716

SSB200204151614.0292427.40173

SSB200204151711.6049435.62056

SSB200204151811.2296130.38519

SSB200204151911.9298611.92986

SSB200204152011.2585311.25853

SSB200204152111.5348511.53485

SSB200204152211.4945311.49453

SSB200204152310.8509610.85096

SSB200204152410.789110.7891

SSB200204152510.6210510.62105

SSB200204152610.4523910.45239

SSB200204152710.6774410.67744

SSB200204152810.6842516.5546

SSB200204152911.0403516.54191

SSB200204153011.6660816.81551

SSB200204153112.4216817.43223

SSB200204153212.2010617.49

SSB200204153312.0350821.12649

SSB200204153412.0243324.51688

SSB200204153510.8611126.82

SSB200204153610.4942525.17

SSB200204153710.4179710.41797

SSB200204153810.3290110.32901

SSB20020415396.2642627.72

SSB200204154010.10910.109

SSB20020415419.9786833.44425

SSB200204154211.29473118.68052

SSB200204154311.0752825.46662

SSB200204154410.9454210.94542

SSB200204154511.3389826.48484

SSB200204154610.496124.79493

SSB200204154710.5103818.76118

SSB20020415489.6786919.51074

SSB2002041618.9483418.48

SSB2002041628.9752731.1543

SSB2002041639.4392531.7

SSB2002041649.3050528.19016

SSB2002041658.9298317.12851

SSB2002041669.103669.10366

SSB2002041678.975818.97581

SSB2002041688.992288.99228

SSB2002041699.071279.07127

SSB20020416109.026289.02628

SSB20020416119.747039.74703

SSB20020416129.774829.77482

SSB20020416139.958339.95833

SSB200204161410.1168665.36175

SSB20020416159.9416451.72401

SSB200204161611.4675328.62845

SSB200204161712.135755.1791

SSB200204161811.8554452.23

FTR66

demand

HDRINITIAL DEMAND OUTTURN

demandbuying priceselling price

INDO2002041510:30255288.8358618.21

INDO2002041521:00250609.0208617.99

INDO2002041531:30267139.59914150

INDO2002041542:00282419.629929.62992

INDO2002041552:30286069.382329.38232

INDO2002041563:00285949.384129.38412

INDO2002041573:30280309.681579.68157

INDO2002041584:00278279.464159.46415

INDO2002041594:30274089.562429.56242

INDO20020415105:00271009.171219.17121

INDO20020415115:30272859.260049.26004

INDO20020415126:00279839.749369.74936

INDO20020415136:303021710.0391110.03911

INDO20020415147:003303110.7813124.46951

INDO20020415157:303687811.4074124.26716

INDO20020415168:003915314.0292427.40173

INDO20020415178:304009611.6049435.62056

INDO20020415189:003982611.2296130.38519

INDO20020415199:304029211.9298611.92986

INDO200204152010:004045011.2585311.25853

INDO200204152110:304038111.5348511.53485

INDO200204152211:004044111.4945311.49453

INDO200204152311:304047310.8509610.85096

INDO200204152412:004048610.789110.7891

INDO200204152512:304035510.6210510.62105

INDO200204152613:003998310.4523910.45239

INDO200204152713:303956210.6774410.67744

INDO200204152814:003925810.6842516.5546

INDO200204152914:303961311.0403516.54191

INDO200204153015:003929411.6660816.81551

INDO200204153115:303904412.4216817.43223

INDO200204153216:003915212.2010617.49

INDO200204153316:303959312.0350821.12649

INDO200204153417:003988712.0243324.51688

INDO200204153517:303968010.8611126.82

INDO200204153618:003882010.4942525.17

INDO200204153718:303813210.4179710.41797

INDO200204153819:003739710.3290110.32901

INDO200204153919:30368596.2642627.72

INDO200204154020:003682210.10910.109

INDO200204154120:30377239.9786833.44425

INDO200204154221:003952111.29473118.68052

INDO200204154321:303878411.0752825.46662

INDO200204154422:003699210.9454210.94542

INDO200204154522:303546711.3389826.48484

INDO200204154623:003337810.496124.79493

INDO200204154723:303137510.5103818.76118

INDO20020415480:00292479.6786919.51074

INDO2002041610:30277288.9483418.48

INDO2002041621:00273938.9752731.1543

INDO2002041631:30289179.4392531.7

INDO2002041642:00304189.3050528.19016

INDO2002041652:30307568.9298317.12851

INDO2002041663:00305689.103669.10366

INDO2002041673:30300898.975818.97581

INDO2002041684:00298528.992288.99228

INDO2002041694:30293769.071279.07127

INDO20020416105:00290219.026289.02628

INDO20020416115:30291279.747039.74703

INDO20020416126:00295499.774829.77482

INDO20020416136:30315129.958339.95833

INDO20020416147:003408210.1168665.36175

INDO20020416157:30376839.9416451.72401

INDO20020416168:003972011.4675328.62845

INDO20020416178:304028212.135755.1791

INDO20020416189:003979811.8554452.23

FTR66199:304002611.1694152.23

2010:003995510.6883955.2605

2110:303962710.3238856.56333

2211:003958310.293456.56333

2311:303954310.3226425.06333

2412:003959410.4724525.06333

2512:303966210.2317325.06333

2613:00390649.9643625.06333

2713:30386399.6899220.79669

2814:00383759.6740221.83333

2914:30386259.7487721.83333

3015:00382679.8075621.19727

3115:30378909.7521520.8303

demand

April 15th 2002

April 16th 2002

demand

Time

MW

April 15th 2002

April 16th 2002

buying price

selling price

Time

per MWh

Chart2

8.8358618.21

9.0208617.99

9.59914150

9.629929.62992

9.382329.38232

9.384129.38412

9.681579.68157

9.464159.46415

9.562429.56242

9.171219.17121

9.260049.26004

9.749369.74936

10.0391110.03911

10.7813124.46951

11.4074124.26716

14.0292427.40173

11.6049435.62056

11.2296130.38519

11.9298611.92986

11.2585311.25853

11.5348511.53485

11.4945311.49453

10.8509610.85096

10.789110.7891

10.6210510.62105

10.4523910.45239

10.6774410.67744

10.6842516.5546

11.0403516.54191

11.6660816.81551

12.4216817.43223

12.2010617.49

12.0350821.12649

12.0243324.51688

10.8611126.82

10.4942525.17

10.4179710.41797

10.3290110.32901

6.2642627.72

10.10910.109

9.9786833.44425

11.29473118.68052

11.0752825.46662

10.9454210.94542

11.3389826.48484

10.496124.79493

10.5103818.76118

9.6786919.51074

8.9483418.48

8.9752731.1543

9.4392531.7

9.3050528.19016

8.9298317.12851

9.103669.10366

8.975818.97581

8.992288.99228

9.071279.07127

9.026289.02628

9.747039.74703

9.774829.77482

9.958339.95833

10.1168665.36175

9.9416451.72401

11.4675328.62845

12.135755.1791

11.8554452.23

11.1694152.23

10.6883955.2605

10.3238856.56333

10.293456.56333

10.3226425.06333

10.4724525.06333

10.2317325.06333

9.9643625.06333

9.6899220.79669

9.6740221.83333

9.7487721.83333

9.8075621.19727

9.7521520.8303

April 15th 2002

April 16th 2002

buying price

selling price

Time

per MWh

prices

HDRSYSTEM BUY SELL DATA

SSB2002041518.8358618.21

SSB2002041529.0208617.99

SSB2002041539.59914150

SSB2002041549.629929.62992

SSB2002041559.382329.38232

SSB2002041569.384129.38412

SSB2002041579.681579.68157

SSB2002041589.464159.46415

SSB2002041599.562429.56242

SSB20020415109.171219.17121

SSB20020415119.260049.26004

SSB20020415129.749369.74936

SSB200204151310.0391110.03911

SSB200204151410.7813124.46951

SSB200204151511.4074124.26716

SSB200204151614.0292427.40173

SSB200204151711.6049435.62056

SSB200204151811.2296130.38519

SSB200204151911.9298611.92986

SSB200204152011.2585311.25853

SSB200204152111.5348511.53485

SSB200204152211.4945311.49453

SSB200204152310.8509610.85096

SSB200204152410.789110.7891

SSB200204152510.6210510.62105

SSB200204152610.4523910.45239

SSB200204152710.6774410.67744

SSB200204152810.6842516.5546

SSB200204152911.0403516.54191

SSB200204153011.6660816.81551

SSB200204153112.4216817.43223

SSB200204153212.2010617.49

SSB200204153312.0350821.12649

SSB200204153412.0243324.51688

SSB200204153510.8611126.82

SSB200204153610.4942525.17

SSB200204153710.4179710.41797

SSB200204153810.3290110.32901

SSB20020415396.2642627.72

SSB200204154010.10910.109

SSB20020415419.9786833.44425

SSB200204154211.29473118.68052

SSB200204154311.0752825.46662

SSB200204154410.9454210.94542

SSB200204154511.3389826.48484

SSB200204154610.496124.79493

SSB200204154710.5103818.76118

SSB20020415489.6786919.51074

SSB2002041618.9483418.48

SSB2002041628.9752731.1543

SSB2002041639.4392531.7

SSB2002041649.3050528.19016

SSB2002041658.9298317.12851

SSB2002041669.103669.10366

SSB2002041678.975818.97581

SSB2002041688.992288.99228

SSB2002041699.071279.07127

SSB20020416109.026289.02628

SSB20020416119.747039.74703

SSB20020416129.774829.77482

SSB20020416139.958339.95833

SSB200204161410.1168665.36175

SSB20020416159.9416451.72401

SSB200204161611.4675328.62845

SSB200204161712.135755.1791

SSB200204161811.8554452.23

FTR66

demand

HDRINITIAL DEMAND OUTTURN

demandbuying priceselling price

INDO2002041510:30255288.8358618.21

INDO2002041521:00250609.0208617.99

INDO2002041531:30267139.59914150

INDO2002041542:00282419.629929.62992

INDO2002041552:30286069.382329.38232

INDO2002041563:00285949.384129.38412

INDO2002041573:30280309.681579.68157

INDO2002041584:00278279.464159.46415

INDO2002041594:30274089.562429.56242

INDO20020415105:00271009.171219.17121

INDO20020415115:30272859.260049.26004

INDO20020415126:00279839.749369.74936

INDO20020415136:303021710.0391110.03911

INDO20020415147:003303110.7813124.46951

INDO20020415157:303687811.4074124.26716

INDO20020415168:003915314.0292427.40173

INDO20020415178:304009611.6049435.62056

INDO20020415189:003982611.2296130.38519

INDO20020415199:304029211.9298611.92986

INDO200204152010:004045011.2585311.25853

INDO200204152110:304038111.5348511.53485

INDO200204152211:004044111.4945311.49453

INDO200204152311:304047310.8509610.85096

INDO200204152412:004048610.789110.7891

INDO200204152512:304035510.6210510.62105

INDO200204152613:003998310.4523910.45239

INDO200204152713:303956210.6774410.67744

INDO200204152814:003925810.6842516.5546

INDO200204152914:303961311.0403516.54191

INDO200204153015:003929411.6660816.81551

INDO200204153115:303904412.4216817.43223

INDO200204153216:003915212.2010617.49

INDO200204153316:303959312.0350821.12649

INDO200204153417:003988712.0243324.51688

INDO200204153517:303968010.8611126.82

INDO200204153618:003882010.4942525.17

INDO200204153718:303813210.4179710.41797

INDO200204153819:003739710.3290110.32901

INDO200204153919:30368596.2642627.72

INDO200204154020:003682210.10910.109

INDO200204154120:30377239.9786833.44425

INDO200204154221:003952111.29473118.68052

INDO200204154321:303878411.0752825.46662

INDO200204154422:003699210.9454210.94542

INDO200204154522:303546711.3389826.48484

INDO200204154623:003337810.496124.79493

INDO200204154723:303137510.5103818.76118

INDO20020415480:00292479.6786919.51074

INDO2002041610:30277288.9483418.48

INDO2002041621:00273938.9752731.1543

INDO2002041631:30289179.4392531.7

INDO2002041642:00304189.3050528.19016

INDO2002041652:30307568.9298317.12851

INDO2002041663:00305689.103669.10366

INDO2002041673:30300898.975818.97581

INDO2002041684:00298528.992288.99228

INDO2002041694:30293769.071279.07127

INDO20020416105:00290219.026289.02628

INDO20020416115:30291279.747039.74703

INDO20020416126:00295499.774829.77482

INDO20020416136:30315129.958339.95833

INDO20020416147:003408210.1168665.36175

INDO20020416157:30376839.9416451.72401

INDO20020416168:003972011.4675328.62845

INDO20020416178:304028212.135755.1791

INDO20020416189:003979811.8554452.23

FTR66199:304002611.1694152.23

2010:003995510.6883955.2605

2110:303962710.3238856.56333

2211:003958310.293456.56333

2311:303954310.3226425.06333

2412:003959410.4724525.06333

2512:303966210.2317325.06333

2613:00390649.9643625.06333

2713:30386399.6899220.79669

2814:00383759.6740221.83333

2914:30386259.7487721.83333

3015:00382679.8075621.19727

3115:30378909.7521520.8303

demand

April 15th 2002

April 16th 2002

demand

Time

MW

April 15th 2002

April 16th 2002

buying price

selling price

Time

per MWh

How many turbines would be needed if Breckland were to be self sufficient - domestic and commercial Turbine sizes:Double the size of turbine - the output goes up 4 times but spacing between turbines must be increasedHowever, the number of turbines is greatly reduced.If wind speed doubles, the output goes up 8 times Increasing height of turbine for same diameter (e.g. 85m compared to 67m will increase output by 6 - 10%about 180 - 200 Turbines of the size of Swaffham

Distraction to driversDanger to birdsRadio/Television/Radar InterferenceNoise - mechanical, aerodynamic, ..infra-sound?Flickering - only relevant within buildings and then only in a precise orientation at selected times of the year.Danger of ice throw - not really a problem as other constraints will mean that a sufficient exclusion zone is present anywayBlade failureAesthetics - one blade, two blades, three blades, Darrieus, Musgrove?

Key Environmental Issues - some of main issues against

Ice can form but if this occurs when stationary, the machine will not startif it forms in operation, then the out of balance on blades is detected and the machine will stop in a few revolutions.Worse case scenario would cause ice to be thrown distances much less than the exclusion zone for noise.

Or do we prefer vertical axis machines?

Offsets the use of fossil fuels and consequential gaseous emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, NMHC etc. Arguements that fossil fuel power stations have to be kept ready in case wind drops are completely INVALID. Power stations running under lower load use less fuel and it is this which causes the emissions.Improves diversity of supply of electricity will become of increasing importance in futureIs becoming technically mature unlike most other renewable technologies (other than energy from waste incineration and hydro)Is the most cost effective Renewable Option currently available, and will remain so for next decade +As electricity will used locally, reduces transmission losses.Key Environmental Issues of Wind Energy - positive aspects

Noise issues:Mechanical

Aerodynamic

Infra-soundProblem with high-speed gearboxes in fixed velocity machines.Not an issue with Swaffham/ proposed turbines at Shipdham.

Maximum rotation speeds of gearboxless turbines are at a maximum 70% of normal wind turbines, and often much less - hence much less swish noise.

This is a subject which is not fully understood - it is at a frequency which would NOT be detected by normal ground vibration.Noise Contours for a cluster of three turbines at Shipdham

school of environmental sciences university of east anglia how can we fuel all the people all of the...

Documents