schedule risk identification

Schedule Risk Analysis Model (SRAM)-For Infrastructure Project

Presented by Under guidance Vishal.R.Kachwah of MIS :121420005 Prof. Dr. N.A.Hedaoo

1College of Engineering, Pune

AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT

The main aim of this study the application of SRAM and verify this

operates well and produces realistic results in capturing relation between

activity durations and risk factors in schedule for construction project. Study and understand uncertainty and risk in project scheduling .

Calculate impact of risk in quantitative form using probablitical method with the help of

analysis software.

Evaluate construction activity networks under risk factors by using real case study .

This study provided schedule risk analysis guidelines for future project .


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Risk identification• D

etermines which risks may affect the project.

• Documents their characteristic.

Data collection • D

evelop questionnaire to identify critical risk factors.

• Identifie Survey participants, distribuait questionnaires and conduct in-person interviews.

Data analysis • T

he risk analysis process uses Monte Carlo techniques to determine probabilities and contingency.

Case Study • Q

uantify impact of risk on a project schedule with the use of MS Project

METHODOLOGY

College of Engineering, Pune

Position of SRAM in risk management process

METHODOLOGY

Risk identification and classification.

Qualitative and Quantitative Risk analysis

Conduct case study of a infrastructure project and Quantify impact of risk on a project schedule.


Risk assessment survey

Questionnaire


Delphi technique is way to reach qualitative result

Historical data are unavailable

Activity is rather unclear

The questionnaire was developed by examining past studies to extract risk

factors that are more appropriate infrastructure project.

The questionnaire was divided into two parts.

The first part included questions regarding the respondent’s

The second part consisted of a total risk factors


Consultants (PMC) Project managers Construction managers Planners

The budget values of projects that run by the interviewed persons range from 50 cr to 200 cr and the Experience range from 5 to 15 years

The type of contact persons are for survey

Pilot study

Survey methodology

We have to achieve response rate > 40 %


Risk Identification

Resources

LabourEquipment

Material

Site conditions

EnvironmentalSub-surface

Site location

Project parties

Owner Design and Architecture Contractor

Project management

Consultant

Project features

Financial

Political

The second part consisted of a total of 4

main factor 12 sub factor.

Total 60 risk factor cover in this survey

which collected form four deferent

research work.


Risk factor = Severity factor * Frequency of occurrence factor ( 3 ) Description Descriptor RANK Probability

Even Chance project Almost certain

Very high >50%

One in Every 4 project Likely High >25%

One in every 10 project

Possible Moderate >10%

One in Every 20 project

Unlikely Low >5%

Less than 1 in 20 project

Rare Very Low <5%

RANK Schedule

Very high >3 Month

High 2to3 Month

Moderate 1to2 Month

Low 2to4 Week

Very Low <2 Week

Probability matrix. Impact matrix


The Software use for future work

Simulation and risk analysis using Palisade’s @RISK It gives equal weight to each 3‐point estimate. That is, no attempt is made to assess the likelihood

of each outcome. Interdependence between risks, as well as their ultimate impact on the project plan’s targets

For scheduling project using Microsoft project

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Case Study Name of project:

Design And Construction Bridge Over River

Pawna, flyover & ROB On Kalewadi Phata To

Dhehu Alandi Road Pune

• Client : PCMC

• Contractor: Gammon India Limited

• Consultant : C. V. Kand Counsultant Pvt .Ltd

• Contract Value: 99,41,78,125/-Rupees

• Status: On going

BAR CHART

11

Jul2015

Aug2015

Sept2015

Oct2015

Nov2015

Dec2015

Jan2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Apr2016

May2016

Literature Review

Collection of Data

Analysis of data

Results and Interpretation

Dissertation Writing


REFERENCE 1. Iyer, K. and Jha, K. (2006). “Critical Factors Affecting Schedule Performance: Evidence from Indian Construction Projects", This

paper is part of the Journal of Construction Engineering and Management , Vol. 132, No. 8, August 1, 2006.

2. Long D. Nguyen,Duc H. Phan, and Llewellyn C. M. Tang. “Simulating Construction Duration for Multistory Buildings with

Controlling Activities”, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE,09 January 2013

3. Mohamed Sayed Bassiony Ahmed Abd El-Karim a,Omar Aly Mosa El Nawawy , Ahmed Mohamed Abdel-Alim “Identification and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects".HBRC Journal, science direct, Online publication date: 1-Jun-2015

4. Damien Schatteman; Willy Herroelen; Stijn Van de Vonder .“Methodology for Integrated Risk Management and Proactive Scheduling of Construction Projects”. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Online publication date: 01 November 2008

5. Dho H J, Khaled E. “Fast and accurate risk evaluation for scheduling large-scale construction projects”. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:2011

6. Subramanyan, H., Sawant, P., and Bhatt, V. (2012). "Construction Project Risk Assessment: Development of Model Based on Investigation of Opinion of Construction Project Experts from India" Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:2012

7. Ahuja, H. N., and Nandakumar, V. (1985). "Simulation model to forecast project completion time" . Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:1985

8. Mulholland, B., and Christian, J.“Risk assessment in construction schedules” .Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date: 01 January 1999.


THANK YOU

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