scenarios of coal technology development –energy foresight for poland by 2030
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7/23/2019 Scenarios of Coal Technology Development –Energy Foresight for Poland by 2030
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Scenarios of Coal Technology
Development – Energy Foresight forPoland by 2030
Krzysztof Stańczyk*, Krystyna Czaplicka-Kolarz,Jerzy Świą drowski
Central Mining Institute, Katowice, Poland
*)
7/23/2019 Scenarios of Coal Technology Development –Energy Foresight for Poland by 2030
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Content of lecture:
•What is foresight?
•The aim and scope of Energy Foresight for Poland
•Short methodology
•The preliminary results
•Summary
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What is foresight?
Foresight can be defined as a systematic, participativeprocess of creating the medium and long-term vision of
the future. It involves a set of actions aiming atmultidimensional assessment of future developmenttrends based on present state of science, technology,social awareness and their interrelations. The foresightmethodology is most often used as a source of diagnosisof serious social and economic problems in varioustimescales and as a forecasting and decision making tool
for governments (political programmes), business sectorand public institutions (e.g. business strategyprogrammes).
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What is foresight?
The technology foresight is one of a various kind of
foresights, focusing on a vision of development of one ormore sectors of the economy
The energy foresight focuses on an assessment andimplementation of new technologies, essential for fuel andenergy production and utilization.
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The aim and scope of the EnergyForesight for Poland
The foresight exercise was launched in 2006 on the
request of Polish Ministry of Economy by the consortiumof research and development institutes. The projecttitled ‘The scenarios of Technological Development of
Fuel and Energy Complex for National Energy Security’ isco-financed in equal shares by the Ministry of Economyand the research organizations. Central Mining Institute
is a leading unit in this project.
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The aim and scope of the EnergyForesight for Poland
The aim of the foresight exercise is the identificationof key technologies of strategic importance for national
economy development and national energy security,followed by the elaboration of scenarios of theirdevelopment by 2030.
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The aim and scope of the EnergyForesight for Poland
The specific features of Polish energy market:
1. Very high share of coal as primary energy carries–about
61.3%
Coal reserves in Poland:
- documented balanced reserves of hard coal – 43.321 billion tones- documented balanced reserves of lignite – 13.634 billion tones
2. Very high share of coal in electricity production – about95%
3. Lack of considerable national resources of crude oil and
natural gas.Present Polish production capacities of these carriers satisfy thenational needs in 5% and 19%, respectively.
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h d f h E
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The aim and scope of the EnergyForesight for Poland
The foresight exercises were conducted in eight thematicgroups:
•hard coal and lignite based power generation technologies•coal treatment technologies
•technologies for management of combustion waste
products•technologies for oil and gas industries
•renewable and alternative fuels based power generationtechnologies
•hydropower, wind power and geothermal technologies
•nuclear power generation technologies•hydrogen energy technologies.
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Short methodologyThe energy foresight exercise was based on commonly used worldwide
Delphi survey.The key stages of the project are following:1. Analysis of the results of previous Delphi surveys and energy
foresights conducted in other countries.
2. Review and analysis of the state of the art technologies, market, social,environmental, political and economic conditions related to energysector.
3. Identification of problem fields in terms of technologies andconditions.
4. Impact analysis based on problem fields analysis.
5. Formulation of Delphi statements, that is factors determining theenergy demand in the defined timescale.
6. Production of Delphi questionnaire, accessible on the internet forrecognized experts and wide consultancy group of stakeholders.
7. The analysis and quantitative assessment of Delphi survey data andtechnology scenario (roadmap) building.
h h l
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Short methodologyAnalysis of Delphi
surveys and foreign
energy foresights
Analysis of:-technologies state of art
- different conditions
List of technologiesList of conditions
-STEEP-SWOT
Identification of
emergingtechnologies Cross-impact analysis ofconditions
Formulation ofDelphi statementsand questionnaire
preparation
Delphi surveys (two stages)
Analysis of results
Energy consumption
prognosis Scenarios and roadmapping building
Scenarios and roadmapping Scheme of basic steps ofenergy foresight
h l l
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The preliminary results
The foresight should be completed in the second half of2007.
Actually:
•Two rounds of Delphi survey were carried over and
statistical analysis was elaborated
•The key technologies for energy sector developmentscenarios building were selected
•Two option prognosis of energy consumption for theperiod to 2030 were elaborated
Ch lt f th E t St t t
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Chosen results of the Expert Statementsfor Delphi Survey
Statement 2.Development of the power industrywill be governed by rules of the
market economy but in initial stagegovernment will be promoting
development of renewable energysources
2%
2%
4%
71%
22%
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
never
after 2030
2021 - 2030
2011 - 2020
before 2010
10%
18%
8%
14%
18%
64%
69%
65%
59%61%
18%
8%
22%
14%
20%
8%
4% 4%
12%
0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Wealthcreation
Environment Quality of life Energy security Increase innumber of innovativecompanies2. Assessment of impact
0%
33%
75%
75%
59%
24%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Other actions
Increase in public acceptance
Legislation
Fiscal measures
Increase in applied research
Increase in basic research
3. Proposed actions needed
1. Assessment of time of occurrence
Th li i lt
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The preliminary results
AverageError of
theaverage
Standarddeviation
Me Q1 Q3
Statement 2 2014,7 0,573 5,785 2014,9 2011,2 2018,5
Example of statistical analysis for chosen general Delphi statement
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Average+/- error Average +/- stand.
dev.
Q1/Me/Q3
Chosen results of the Expert Statements
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Statement 10.Coal gasification in Polish conditions
will be fundamental source ofhydrogen
2. Assessment of impact 3. Proposed actions needed
1. Assessment of time of occurrence
23%
31%
23%
23%
0%
0%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
never
after 2030
2021 - 2030
2011 - 2020
before 2010
0%
18%
0% 0%
27%
73%
55%
64%
91%
73%
18%
27%
36%
9%
0%
9%
0% 0% 0% 0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wealthcreation
Environment Quality of life Energy security Increase innumber of innovativecompanies
0%
31%
31%
38%
77%
54%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Increase in applied research
Increase in basic research
Fiscal measures
Legislation
Increase in public acceptance
Other actions
Chosen results of the Expert Statementsfor Delphi statement for hydrogen technology
Th li i lt
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The preliminary results
Example of statistical analysis for chosen Delphi statement forhydrogen technology
AverageError of
the
average
Standarddeviation
Me Q1 Q3
Statement 10 2030,0 2,212 10,835 2031,0 2021,0 2041,0
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
. Q1/Me/Q3 Average+/- error
Average +/- stand.dev.
Th li i lt
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The preliminary results
Key technologies for electricity generation
•hard coal fired power plants with pulverized-fuel boiler systems,
desulphurization, denitriding and dedusting facilities of 50% netefficiency and CO2 capture and storage facilities of 43% net efficiency
•high efficiency power generation systems based on IGCC technologywith and without CO2 capture and storage
•IGCC systems for cogeneration of electricity, methanol and hydrogen,enabling to reduce the costs of electricity production with CO2 captureand storage
•gas-steam systems with high efficiency gas turbines (inlet temperatureover 15000C)
•high-temperature nuclear reactors for electricity and heat production
for chemical processes (e.g. coal gasification, hydrogen production)•fuel cell cogeneration systems
Th p limin sults
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The preliminary results
Key technologies for network heat generation
•high efficiency gas-steam systems for combinedelectricity and heat generation
•absorption heat pumps for heat generation in dwelling-houses
•geothermal network heat generation plants
•municipal waste combustion plants for network heat andelectricity production
The preliminary results
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The preliminary results
Key technologies for vehicle drives
•hybrid systems fed with electricity and liquid fuels
•fuel cells
The preliminary results
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The preliminary resultsPrognosis of primary energy consumption (%) in Poland by
energy carriers for two options Year
Energy carrier 2005 2030
(reference option)
2030
(alternative option)Lignite 13.6 7.5 8.0
Hard coal 43.9 41.6 35.1
Crude oil andpetrochemicals
24.0 24.4 23.4
Natural gas 13.1 16.4 18.4
Renevable 5.4 8.6 9.6
Nuclear 0 1.5 5.5
•reference, with presumed environmental requirements, resulting frompresent EU regulations
•alternative, with more strict requirements in terms of carbon dioxideemission levels, expected in relation to the new energy policy of EU.
Summary
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Summary
The technology foresight study for energy sector was undertaken forthe first time in Poland.
To this time the basic steps of the foresight procedure werefulfilled, which are indispensable for scenarios elaboration.
The experiences will be utilize in European Energy Foresight whichshould be undertaken in short time.
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Thank You very much for your
attention