scenarios for distributed energy systems and new business concepts
DESCRIPTION
’Business as usual’. ’Supportive legislation’. ’Plug and play’. ’Green heaven’. SCENARIOS FOR DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS AND NEW BUSINESS CONCEPTS. PURPOSE AND AIMS. PROJECT STATUS AND RESULTS. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SCENARIOS FOR DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS AND NEW SCENARIOS FOR DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS AND NEW BUSINESS CONCEPTSBUSINESS CONCEPTS
PROJECT STATUS AND RESULTS
REALIZATION OF THE RESULTS
PURPOSE AND AIMS
THE FRAMEWORK OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT
BENEFITS FOR COMPANIES
THE PROJECT PARTNERS: PROJECT in 2005
PERSONNEL FACTS AND FIGURES Project organization
Research Director: Professor Tuomo KässiProject Manager: Researcher Jukka Bergman
FiguresDuration: 05/2004 – 12/2005Extent: 55 man-monthswww.tbrc.fi/projects.php
To form a holistic description of the technological and business development opportunities and threats in the distributed energy generation in different scenarios
To define the future scenarios and business value networks in the distributed energy systems till the year 2019
To study developing the technology from the point of view of new operational models To assess, analyze and define the opportunities in utilizing the technologies especially
with regard to services
-Two scenario sessions have been held with the Specialists and Actors in Lappeenranta on 10-11 August 2004 and in Espoo on 30 September 2004. New business ideas found in the sessions were evaluated on the basis of scenarios with the Specialists in the GDSS laboratory at LUT.
-Technology Report on potential DE technologies on 10 January 2005
-Scenario Report on future business on 28 January 2005
The first session held in Lappeenranta produced preliminary future scenarios for distributed energy systems. Particular emphasis was put on the business environment and related factors.
On the basis of the scenarios by the Actors (DENSY program administration) the outlook of the DE business is rather positive.
Presentations of the themes on the four scenarios can be found enclosed.
-The project future scenarios and technology study have been conducted by Specialists in close cooperation with DENSY program administration (Actors).
-Future business concepts for the selected technologies and targeted market areas will be developed, and further projects to be launched will be prepared with companies.
-Research funding by TEKES, the National Technology Agency of Finland
ProfessorTuomo Kässi
Professor Jarmo Partanen
Researcher Jukka Bergman
Assessing the development opportunities in the services in distributed energy systems Discovering the future R&D trends and the potential in the current and prospective
technologies
Present energy generation systems
Present energy generation systems
New business concepts for distributed energy systemsNew business concepts for distributed energy systems
Potential in distributed energy generation
Potential in distributed energy generation
Scenarios for distributed energy systemsScenarios for distributed energy systems
Challenges of the dynamic business environment
Challenges of the dynamic business environment
’Business as usual’
’Supportive legislation’
’Green heaven’
’Plug and play’
Business ideas and R&D needs related to the distributed energy systems were identified and defined in an innovation process utilizing the scenarios.
The best business ideas will be developed further as accurately as possible to produce nearly complete operational models.
Scenarios will be utilized througout the planning of projects and selecting the project proposals in the DENSY program.
ResearcherMika Lankila
IF YOU ARE INTERESTED, PLEASE CONTACT
Jukka Bergman, [email protected], +358 5 621 6652 Tuomo Kässi, [email protected], +358 5 621 2602
ResearcherPetja Rinne
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
TEKES - DENSY
The scenarios of distributed energy generation and their impact on business models
1. The premises of the distributed energy business
2. The results of the scenario process
3. Preliminary results of the business development
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
Premises for the distributed energy business
- Enormous energy generation potential of distributed energy systems
- Environmental problems
- Environmental regulation
- Applications of existing technologies in new situations to create new business
- Increasing population
TECHNOLOGY: DENSY-seminaari Vaasa 2005_Prem.ppt0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Po
wer
(G
W)
Wind power
Solar photovoltaic cell
Small-scale hydropower
Biomass
Solar power plant
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
The changing value chain
ENERGY SOURCES(Fossil and renewable sources)
ENERGY SOURCES(Fossil and renewable sources)
Energy generationEnergy generation
Energy DistributionEnergy Distribution
Energy Market(e.g. electricity exchange)
Energy Market(e.g. electricity exchange)
Energy ResaleEnergy Resale
Distributed Energy Generation
(Components systems and services)
Distributed Energy Generation
(Components systems and services)
ENERGY CONSUMPTIONENERGY CONSUMPTION
Services(huolto, kunnossapito)
Services(huolto, kunnossapito)
VALUE CHAIN OF THE DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
Scenario process
Alternative Scenarios
Technologies and business opportunities
Analysis of the Results
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
Scenarios
Developed Infrastructure
No regulation
Tight regulation
Supportive Legislation
Business as usual
Green Heaven
’Plug and play’
Undeveloped Infrastructure
The frameworks of the scenarios in the year 2019
Open Market
Regulated Market
Large UnitsEnergy-Eldorado
Forced opened market
The Law of the Jungle
Developed Infrastructure
Undeveloped Infrastructure
Triggers: Tiggers_200905.ppt
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
Differences between the scenarios
No regulation-Necessary and import to the society energy production is controlled-The best and cheapest solution wins the game-No regulative control
Open Market-Totally open business driven markets-Authors will not make any interventions-Customer driven business
Tight regulation-Do no threat the centralized energy systems and business-Business started with the help of authors-supportive regulation for the DE business
Regulated market-Imperative regulation towards the DE-Producers fulfill the minimum demands of the regulator-DE is only a subsidiary business (to please ’green groups’)
The level of the control of the authors
Differences of the scenarios between the experts and the actors .
1.
2.
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
Assessment of the scenarios
18
15
13
9
6
4
21
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4Uskottavin Epäuskottavin
The scenarios:1 = Business as usual –Scenario2 = Supportative legislation –Scenario3 = Green Heaven –Scenario4 = Plug and Play –Scenario
PLAUSIBILITY (uskottavuus)
(direction of the change of the industry)
DESIRABLE (haluttavuus)
(Success of the company in the future with the existing resources)
1918
12
7
43
2 2
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4Haluttavin Pahin
Most Plausible Least Plausible Most Desirable Worst
Triggers: Tiggers_200905.ppt
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
R&D and Future Business:
88 %
71 %
38 % 38 % 38 %
20 %
Vo
imala
itosl
aite
-va
lmis
tus
Ko
mpone
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ien
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Su
unnitt
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En
erg
ian
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100 %
50 %
The focus of the R&D in the future
79 %
71 %
53 %
47 %
29 %
11 %6 %
Tuuli
Jäte
Bio
-polt-
toain
eet
Aurinko
Turv
e
Vety
Aalto
100 %
Future system and component business opportunity areas
The scenarios:1 = Business as usual –Scenario2 = Supportative legislation –Scenario3 = Green Heaven –Scenario4 = Plug and Play –Scenario
Pow
er
plan
ts
Com
pone
nts IC
sol
utio
ns
Ene
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Sys
tem
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Con
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ices
Ene
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Sto
ragi
ng
Win
d
Was
te
Bio
Sol
ar
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t
Hyd
roge
n Wav
es
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
The future business opportunites
16 1615
13
10
8 87 7
6 65 5
3
10
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4Palvelut Järjestelmätekniikka, Järjestelmätekniikka, Laitteet / komponentit
energian tuotanto verkot
The most promising business areas for the Finnish companies
The scenarios:1 = Business as usual –Scenario2 = Supportative legislation –Scenario3 = Green Heaven –Scenario4 = Plug and Play –Scenario
Services Systems in energy generation
Systems in networks
Machines and components
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
Business Idea Generation in the GDSS
Services Systems Components
Business Concepts
Customer
(12 ideas) (8 ideas) (17 ideas)
R & D(20 ideas)
Others(2 ideas)
Premises: DENSY-seminaari Vaasa 2005_TRE.ppt
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
Analysis:
- DE business will develop with the help of the supportive legislation.
- ”The Plug-and-Play” scenario would be a Wildcard when the most flexible and agile companies will succeed.
- New business models will develop around the existing technologies using them :
• in a novel way,
• for new targets,
• in emerging markets.
- Only the new business models make it possible to exploit the emerging business opportunities (technology is only the enabler)
- According to the survey, Companies expressed their readiness for the future changes if they are not too rapid.
”Doing things to the way they always been done!”
September 20, 2005Jukka Bergman
Millainen olen? Minne halua?
Ennustaja – luottaa todennäköiseen.
Riskinottaja – valitsee ”parhaan” lopputuloksen
Riskinkarttaja – muotoilee strategian, jolla selviää kaikissa vaihtoehdoissa
Realisti – kehittää joustavuutta siltä varalta, että joku muu kuin valittu skenaario toteutuu
Tulevaisuuden tekijä – vaikuttaa omilla teoillaan niin, että haluttu vaihtoehto toteutuu
Teuras – odottaa ja toivoo (Meristö&Kettunen, 2003)
Triggers: Tiggers_200905.ppt