SCENARIO BUILDING WORKSHOPS:

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Craig E. Colten Conference on Ecological and Ecosystem Restoration

July 2014

R E C R U I T I N G P A R T I C I P A N T S A N D P L A N N I N G Worked with our NGO group

Sought 10-15 participants representing principal stakeholder groups Met with local groups, circulated info Selected neutral meeting site near population centers Invited participants Conducted full-day meeting

P R O C E D U R E

Process developed by Dept. of Interior to consider ripple effects of oil spill, adapted to coastal restoration projects, slow crisis (see Machlis and McNutt 2010) Consider a set of conditions, and then ask for participants to forecast possible ripple effects in their community Record them using SmartDraw For each ripple, there can be multiple effects, explore reasonable number Focus on social/economic impacts

W H AT I S A S C E N A R I O ?

Projection of what may happen in the future, based on set of pre-determined conditions Example • Connecting flight in Houston Arrive late due to weather, miss outbound Arrive on time and make connection Arrive on time and connection delayed

C A R R Y I N G S C E N A R I O F U R T H E R

P R O B A B I L I T I E S

5 - certain 4 - reasonably certain 3 - probable 2 - plausible 1 - unlikely 0- not possible nk - not known

A D D I N G P R O B A B I L I T I E S

M AT R I X O F C O N D I T I O N S

SITUATION GEOGRAPHIC SCALE TIME HORIZON SIZE OF PROJECT

with action local/community 1 year small

without action immediate region 20 years medium

coast-wide 50 years large

S O C I A L C O M P O N E N T S

Social Institutions • health • shelter/housing • food/sustenance • justice/law • religion • business/industry • education/schools • recreation/leisure • government/politics • public safety (law

enforcement, military, security)

Social Order • age • gender • class • kin/family

Social Hierarchy • wealth • power • knowledge • status • territory

M A R S H C R E AT I O N

Belle Pass-Golden Meadow 14,420 marsh To: create wetland habitat, restore degraded marsh, reduce wave erosion 2012-2031 Continues – 2032-2061

C o a s t a l I n f r a s t r u c t u r e & E c o n o m y

I m p a c t s o n L a b o r

B A R R I E R I S L A N D S

Timbalier Islands To provide dune, beach, back barrier, and storm surge and wave protection 2012-2031

I n c r e a s e d I n c o m e t o F i s h e r m e n

E n h a n c e d To u r i s m

D I V E R S I O N

Mid-Barataria • 50,000 cfs and 250,000 cfs • To build and maintain land • 1st period – 7,000 to 32,000 acres • 2nd period - 23,000 to 43,000 acres • 2012-2051

W i t h M i d - B a r a t a r i a

W i t h o u t M i d - B a r a t a r i a : F i s h e r i e s

W i t h o u t M i d - B a r a t a r i a : F l o o d i n g

P r i o r i t i e s

Population mobility Communication with government organizations Sustaining local economies Building community consensus Avoiding corrosive community outcomes Local management of projects Involving local companies/workers Appropriate scale Impacts on local units of governance Adaptation planning Long-term financing/commitments

A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s

Funding for this project came from the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana. Taylor Marshall provided essential logistical support in the planning and execution of these workshops. The scenario procedure follows the methods discussed in G.E. Machlis & M.K. McNutt. 2010. Scenario-building for the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill. Science, 329, 1018-19.