scenario building in urban mobility - polis network
TRANSCRIPT
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Scenario building in urban mobilityPOLIS Webinar series: “Mobilising Mobility: Turning European transport innovation into local action
Presenter: Sara Tori (Mobility, Logistics & Automotive Technology Research Centre, VUB)
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Leading questions
• How does mobility in European cities evolve by 2030?
• What is the impact of new mobility services (eg. MaaS? Micromobility?)?
• What are the policy gaps?
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Scenarios?“an internally consistent view of what
the future might turn out to be.”
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Why scenarios?
Help to deal with uncertainty
Describe several plausible futures
Help to consider long-term policy making while exploring short-term options
Easy to communicate
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SPROUT scenario building process
• Scenarios are do-nothingscenarios
• Built on:• CIB of pre-selected drivers
• Sustainability impact analysis
• Policy impact analysis
• Scenario writing workshops
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Cross-impact balance analysis for scenario development
Selection of drivers fuelingthe transformation in urban mobility
Evaluation of the impacts between drivers
Calculation of consistent scenarios through software
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Impact analyses
• Sustainability (CERTH)• To assess the impacts of new technologies, business models, and user
needs on urban transport and sustainability
• Policy (WI)• To assess the potential impact of scenarios on urban mobility policy
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Scenario workshops
To develop
the narrative
scenario
elements
Held locally in
each city
Participatory
with
stakeholders
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Results
• 3 scenarios for each city• 2 mostly opposing
• 1 ‘most likely'
• 1-page narratives
• Visual representations
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Padua- The modular and sustainable city
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Padua- The grim city
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Concluding remarks
Scenario planning as auseful tool to prepare foralternative futures
Scenario planning as a tool to help involve stakeholders
Crucial choice of relevant drivers that determine thescenarios
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Next steps
Formulation of city-specific innovative policy responses
Spring 2021
Development of city-led innovative policy responses with wider applicability
Autumn 2021
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Thank you!
Sara Tori
Prof. Dr. Imre Keserü
Prof. Dr. Cathy Macharis
Dr. Geert te Boveldt