scenario analysis framework key stages 6 june 2016 ... · pdf filescenario universe a set of...
TRANSCRIPT
Scenario Analysis Framework – Key Stages
6 June 2016
Jenna Andrews
Operational Risk Manager
Key stages
Definition
Approach
• Well designed
• Structured
• Known and Understood
• Enable freedom of thought
Governance
- Policy and scope
- Ownership
- Responsibility – risk function,
business units, senior
management
- Sign off vs review vs approval
- Communication
- Engagement
Drivers & Review
Drivers
- Stakeholders
- Benefits
- Value
Review
- Maturity diagnostic
- Improvement
- Audit
Developing the Framework
• Framework design
• Fit with other framework elements
• Reporting timescales
• Documentation
• Training and awareness
Planning Stage
1. What scenarios should be run?
2. How many scenarios is appropriate?
3. What are we missing?
4. What data is there to support the scenarios?
Planning Stage (cont)
Then….
• Develop the story
• Plan the workshops:
Identify workshop participants/ support required
from other business units (locally and globally)
Agree the timing and structure of the workshops
• Prepare the workshop materials
Assessment and Measurement
• Severity assessments
• Frequency assessments
• Risk appetite
• Controls environment review
• Key risk indicators
• Improvements and action plans
• Recording discussions
Validation
• Type of validation required depends on the drivers
for the process
• Peer comparison/ Benchmarks
• Bias
• Independence
Communication and Reporting
• Choosing the method of communication
• Engaging senior management
• Reporting
Output socialisation and value add
Who should you share the results with?
Why?
What other ways can these output be used:
- Training and awareness
- Culture
- Risk appetite testing/review
- Control testing, enhancement and improvement
- BCP/DR inputs
- Inputs into formal risk management reporting
Scenario Universe Concept
Process
External
DataKey Risk
Indicators
Benchmark
Scenarios
Internal
Data
Scenario Universe
A set of two books:
- Best practice guide
- Set of 38 Benchmarks scenario
specifications
Postcards on your chair provides for
£100 discount for attending this
conference.
Free book extracts available – please
come and see me for one.
Free book extracts available – please come and see me for one.
