savings of specialty cfls and led downlights

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

Savings of Specialty CFLs and LED Downlights

Danielle GiddingBonneville Power Administration

Ryan Firestone &Wayne LeonardNavigant Consulting

April 6, 2010


Purpose• Address differences between specialty CFLs and standard CFLs that

result in different deemed savings, costs, and lifetimes. • Review recent specialty-specific data sources• Reconsider savings derating factors for standard and specialty CFLs• LED downlights in analysis to leverage overlapping data sources

Key issues that impact savings:• Dependence of savings and cost-effectiveness parameters on lamp

type• Package size

• Impact on storage rate and cost• Usage patterns

• Lamp type vs. room type • Prevalence of lamp type by room type

• Removal and take-back rates


Definition of a Specialty CFL• Lamp types that currently qualify in PTR as a “Specialty” CFL:

– Reflector (PAR)– Globe– Candelabras and Torpedoes(>5W)– Dimmable– 3-Way – Outdoor

• As of April 1st, BPA will not consider the following lamps as Specialty CFLs:– A-Lamp– Daylight– T-2– High Wattage (> 25W)


Background2009 – May RTF Meeting

• Presentation of PSE/SCL/SnoPUD CFL Saturation Survey • Approved: Retail - Storage rate to 37%, replacing 12% removal rate,

5% take-back• Annual savings reduced from 33 kWh to 24 kWh• No decision on non-retail delivery mechanisms

– Measure Life• Review paper by Corina Jump, et al. “The Effect of Switching on

CFL Measure Life”• Approved: Reduction in CFL measure life by room type, due to

switching patterns. (5.3 year lifetime replaces 7 year lifetime)

2009 – June RTF Meeting• Discussion and Decision on energy savings de-ratings for

“Direct Installation” CFL’s and CFL’s identified through NEEA socket count studies

• Retain 12% removal rate and 5% take-back rate for these delivery mechanisms


Background2010 – February RTF Meeting• Should savings for specialty bulbs be different than for

standard CFLs?• Is standard storage rate (36%) too large?

– Are specialties sold in smaller package sizes that standards?– Should storage rate be lower because specialties are a

“considered” purchase?• Are specialties going into higher use sockets than

standards?• What types/quantities of specialty bulbs are being sold?• Table deemed savings for specialty CFLs until more data

is available.


Adjustment Factors

Energy Savings

per LampRemoval Takeback Storage (kWh/year)

Retail Sales (non-Specialty Only) 0% 0% 36% 24 Yes, May '09

Direct Installs (Any Energy Star Bulb) 12% 5% 0% 32 Yes, June '09

NEEA Socket Count (Any Energy Star Bulb) 0% 5% 0% 36 Yes, June '09

Retail Sales of "Specialty Bulbs" 12% 0% 18% 27 Not Yet

Savings De-Rating Factor

Installation Type

(weighted average, interior or exterior)

RTF Approved

Update proposed in February


From Feb. 2010 RTF Presentation…• Potential Reasons “Specialty Bulbs” Might Deserve Different

Adjustment Factors– Different pre- and post-wattage assumptions for specialties– Different hours of use for specialties– Different incremental cost for specialty bulbs– Different storage rate– Different removal rate

• New reports published with updated data to support analysis on specialty lamps


How Do Specialties Differ From Standard CFLs?

Savings and Cost Effectiveness Parameters

Package Size (retail) Lamp Type Location

User Purchase

Intent and Satistfaction

∆ Watts XHours of Use X XStorage Rate X X X

Removal Rate X XTake-back Rate X X

Lifetime XMeasure Cost X X

Avoided Replacement Cost X XAvoided Replacement Frequency X

How do specialties differ from standard CFLs?


Recent Specialty-Specific Data Sources

PECI Change A Light Retail Sales Data, 2008 and 2009• Lamp type, wattage, package size, retail price, sale priceCA Statewide Upstream and Downstream Metering

Studies (KEMA, The Cadmus Group)• Verification and evaluation of 2006-2008 programs,

published February 2010• Hours of use by lamp-type• Location by lamp-type• Storage and removal rates


1: Characteristics Of Specialty Lamp Sales: Package Size, Wattage, Price

• Data from PECI Change A Light program sales data, 2008 and 2009

• Use to determine sales weighted average:– package size– wattage– retail cost ($/lamp)

• Baseline (incandescent) costs from 2008 OR and WA field research


Change A Light Retail Sales, 2008 and 2009

• 84% of lamps sold in 4 or 6 packs

• Reflectors and globe = 94% of lamps currently defined as specialty (as of April 1, 2010)

• These sales patterns might not be representative of typical drug/grocery/hardware retail programs

Single Pack, 411,935,

11%

2 Pack, 198,153,

5%

3 Pack, 14,724, 0%

4 Pack, 1,453,268,

38%

6 Pack, 1,731,408,

46%

Change A Light Lamp Sales by Package Size2008 and 2009

>Results exclude lamp types sold that are no longer considered specialties: A-Lamp, Daylight, and T2 Twist>Note that this is the number of lamps sold, not packagesSources: Sales data – PECI 2010


Comparison of Specialty Bulb Sales to Standard CFL Deemed Values

Sources:RTF Deemed Savings file EStarLighting_ExistingFY09v1_2.xlsPECI Change A Light sales data, 2008 and 2009

• Specialty CFLs have lower wattage• But most are displacing incandescent reflectors

• Specialty CFLs are more expensive than standard CFLs• lower storage rate?• lower cost effectiveness

package size wattage $/lamp

% of Change A Light sales

Current Deemed Values for Standard CFLs* 19.3 $2.75Change A Light - Reflector 3.7 17.2 $3.71 74%

Change A Light - Globe 2.7 11.3 $3.04 20%Change A Light - CFL Candelabra 3.5 7.3 $2.85 3%

Change A Light - 3-Way 1.2 20.2 $8.30 1%Change A Light - Outdoor 1.0 14.0 $7.52 1%

Change A Light - CC Candelabra 1.0 3.0 $6.47 1%Change A Light - Dimmable Reflector 1.0 15.0 $15.02 0%

*values shown are the weighted average for any interior/exterior The same lamp cost ($2.75) is currently used for DI,Retail, and NEEA


2: Specialty Lamp Hours of Use and Lifetime• Hours of use and location by lamp type

– The Cadmus Group, Inc. "Residential Retrofit High Impact Measure Evaluation Report", prepared for the California Public Utilities Commission, February 2010

– Metering by lamp type (reflector, globe, a-lamp) for direct hours of use values• Reflectors and globes are a majority of sales and socket count

– Location (room) by lamp type• Hours of use by room type

– Navigant Consulting, "U.S. Lighting Market Characterization, Volume I: National Lighting Inventory and Energy Consumption Estimate Final Report", Table 5-9, p 40, Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2002

– KEMA, Inc.,”CFL Metering Study” for Pacific Gas & Electric Company, Southern California Edison Company, San Diego Gas & Electric Company, 2005.

– Energy Market Innovations, Inc., "Puget Sound Area Residential Compact Fluorescent Lighting Market Saturation Study", November 2007

• Reduction in rated lifetime due to switching (current deemed approach for standard CFLs)– Jump et al., “Welcome to the Dark Side: The Effect of Switch on CFL Measure

Life”, ACEEE Summer Study, 2008


Calculating Daily Hours of Use

For lamp types not metered in CA study• Use location* (room type) and hours of use by location** to

determine lamp hours of use

*The Cadmus Group, Inc. "Residential Retrofit High Impact Measure Evaluation Report", prepared for the California Public Utilities Commission, February 2010

**Navigant Consulting, "U.S. Lighting Market Characterization, Volume I: National Lighting Inventory and Energy Consumption Estimate Final Report", Table 5-9, p 40, Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2002

**KEMA, Inc.,”CFL Metering Study” for Pacific Gas & Electric Company, Southern California Edison Company, San Diego Gas & Electric Company, 2005.

**Energy Market Innovations, Inc., "Puget Sound Area Residential Compact Fluorescent Lighting Market Saturation Study", November 2007

RoomType

RoomTypeRoomTypelamp Prevalence*HOUHOU


Daily Hours of Use

See references on previous slide

Lamp TypeDaily

Hours of Use

Source Space Type Daily Hours of Use

Living Room 2.93-Way 1.9 Cadmus, Other Kitchen 3.5Dimmable 1.9 Cadmus, A-Lamp Bathroom 1.8CC Candelabra - decorative 2.3 weighted average by space type prevalence Bedroom 1.3CC Candelabra - primary 2.3 weighted average by space type prevalence Master Bedroom 1.4CFL Candelabra and Torpedo 2.3 weighted average by space type prevalence Porch 3.3Dimmable Reflector 1.9 Cadmus, Reflector Yard/Driveway 2.9Globe 1.5 Cadmus, Globe Average - Interior Wattage 2.2Outdoor 2.9 average of 3 sources, exterior lamps Average - Exterior Wattage 3.1Reflector 1.9 Cadmus, ReflectorLED Downlights

LED Downlight- Inc_base 1.9 Cadmus, Reflector

Deemed Hours of Use for Standard CFLs

Weighted Average - Interior & Exterior Wattage 2.3

Specialty CFLs (as of April 1, 2010)

Proposed Hours of Use by Lamp Type for Specialty CFLs


Lamp Distribution per Room Type

Source: The Cadmus Group, Inc. "Residential Retrofit High Impact Measure Evaluation Report", prepared for the California Public Utilities Commission, February 2010

Locations of Bulbs Reflector Daylight Globe A-Lamp

CFL Candelabra

and Torpedo

Bathroom 9% 16% 73% 15% 5%Bedroom 6% 24% 4% 25% 16%

Kitchen 21% 10% 3% 6% 6%Exterior 20% 9% 2% 11% 14%

Living Room 9% 14% 4% 11% 13%Hallway/Foyer /Stairs 14% 8% 7% 7% 12%

Dining room 3% 5% 3% 5% 25%Family/Den 7% 5% 1% 6% 6%

Other 2% 4% 0% 5% 0%Garage 1% 2% 0% 2% 0%Office 6% 7% 1% 6% 3%

Percentages by lamp type may not add to 100% due to rounding

Type of lamp

Where it shows up


3: Storage Rates, Removal, and Take-back Rates• Use the same removal/take-back/storage rates for standard and specialty

CFLs retail delivery mechanisms• Apply current deemed retail storage rate (36%) determined by Puget

Sound study by EMI • Removal – reduce direct install rate from 12% to 4%

• consistent with recent NEEA findings (2004 to 2006), • Take-back – reduce direct install rate from 5% to 0%

• No evidence of CFL take-back effect found


Storage Rates• Data on storage rates for specialties not found• For retail specialty bulbs, propose using PSE observed 37%

storage rate (deemed for retail standard) for all CFLs– Reasons for lower storage rates

• Specialties are higher cost than standard CFLs – less likely to buy excess

• Less saturation of specialty applications than standard CFLs• Specialties are more likely to be purchased for specific sockets

than CFLs


Removal Rate• KEMA findings for NEEA- 4% removal rates in 2004, 2005, and 2006

Source: KEMA, Inc., "ENERGY STAR Consumer Products Program - Market Progress Evaluation Report", prepared for the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, July 2007. Report #07-174


Removal RateOther regional studies support a 2% to 6% removal rate

– CA, 2009 – self-reported 6% removal rate for give-away CFLs after 1-3 years• Top reason was burn-out• KEMA, "Process Evaluation of 2006-2008 PG&E Mass Markets Program Portfolio and

CFL, Swimming Pool Market Characterizations, Final Report", for the CA Public Utilities Commission, December 2009

– Earlier study shows difference between program (2.0%) and non-program lamps (12.1%)• Regional Economic Research, Inc., “Northern States Power - Residential Lighting

Evaluation: Final Report and Appendices”, 1996• Skumatz, L. and O. Howlett, “Findings and “Gaps” in CFL Evaluation Research: Review

of the Existing Literature”, proceedings of the 2006 International Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting Conference


Take-back RateApply same take-back rate to standard and specialty CFLs:• Direct install: adjust from 5% to 0%

– No data to support increased usage of CFLs over incandescents• Retail: keep at 0%


5. Savings Analysis

)1(*)1(*)1(*

*)1(**1000

takebackremovalstorageatingSavingsDerHVACkWhtherms

atingSavingsDerHVACHoursWattsWattskWh

therms

kWhEEbase


Savings Analysis: Wattages

*KEMA, Inc. “Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program Volume 1” for the California Public Utilities Commission, February 2010, except for candelabra, high wattage, and outdoor.

**Change A Light sales data from 2008 and 2009 (PECI 2010) except for CC Candelabra and LED downlights. LED downlight based on GE PAR30LED

Lamp TypeBaseline

Watttage*EE

Wattage**Delta

Wattage

Wattage Ratio -

Baseline to EE

Specialty CFLs (as of April 1, 2010)3-Way 66.8 20.2 46.5 3.3

Dimmable 66.8 17.7 49.0 3.8

CC Candelabra - decorative 25.0 5.0 20.0 5.0

CC Candelabra - primary 40.0 8.0 32.0 5.0

CFL Candelabra and Torpedo 40.0 7.3 32.7 5.5

Dimmable Reflector 70.6 15.0 55.6 4.7

Globe 46.1 11.3 34.7 4.1

Outdoor 60.0 14.0 46.0 4.3

Reflector 70.6 17.2 53.4 4.1LED Downlights

LED Downlight- Inc_base 70.6 10.0 60.6 7.1

blue indicates types not in PECI data, EE wattage based on current CFL products and on the GE PAR30 LED downlight


Savings Analysis: Savings De-rating• Use same values for standard and specialty CFLs• Retain 36% storage rate• Lower direct install storage rate from 12% to 4%

• standard and specialty bulbs• Remove 5% take-back rate for direct install

Installation Type Removal Take-back StorageAggregate Derating

Current Deemed Savings De-Rating FactorsRetail (non-specialty only) 0% 0% 36% 64%

Direct install (any Energy Star bulb) 12% 5% 0% 84%Proposed Deemed Savings De-Rating Factors

Retail (any Energy Star bulb) 0% 0% 36% 64%Direct install (any Energy Star bulb) 4% 0% 0% 96%


Measure Life

cap lifetime at 12 years to account for new (unproven) technology

Lamp Type Normalized EUL HOU

Measure Lifetime (hours)

Measure Lifetime (years)

Baseline Lifetime (hours)

Baseline Lifetime (years)

Specialty CFLs (as of April 1, 2010)3-Way 50% 1.9 5,048 7.3 1,000 1.4Dimmable 50% 1.9 5,048 7.3 1,000 1.4CC Candelabra - decorative 55% 2.3 25,000 12.0 1,000 1.2CC Candelabra - primary 55% 2.3 25,000 12.0 1,000 1.2CFL Candelabra and Torpedo 55% 2.3 5,452 6.5 1,000 1.2Dimmable Reflector 52% 1.9 5,248 7.6 1,000 1.4Globe 33% 1.5 3,299 6.0 1,000 1.8Outdoor 52% 2.9 5,238 5.0 1,000 1.0Reflector 52% 1.9 5,248 7.6 1,000 1.4LED DownlightsLED Downlight- Inc_base 100% 1.9 20,000 12.0 1,000 1.4


Cost

Blue indicates values obtained directly from Change A Light data: internet pricing used for dimmable, Change A Light 3W lamp cost used for higher wattage cold cathode, LED downlight based on internet pricing of the GE PAR30 LED

*Direct install cost is the minimum of all observed retail price-per-bulb for that lamp type

Lamp Type Direct Install* Single Pack 2 Pack 3 Pack 4 Pack 6 Pack

Sales Weighted

AverageSpecialty CFLs (as of April 1, 2010)3-Way $6.50 $8.96 $6.50 $8.30Dimmable $8.00 $8.00 $8.00CC Candelabra - decorative $6.47 $6.47 $6.47CC Candelabra - primary $6.47 $6.47 $6.47CFL Candelabra and Torpedo $2.50 $4.80 $6.00 $2.50 $2.85Dimmable Reflector $15.02 $15.02 $15.02Globe $2.50 $4.67 $5.01 $3.43 $2.50 $3.04Outdoor $7.52 $7.52 $7.52Reflector $2.99 $6.90 $5.75 $3.61 $4.02 $2.99 $3.71LED DownlightsLED Downlight- Inc_base $50.00 $50.00 $50.00


Savings and Cost Effectiveness ResultsLifetime

Lamp Type Direct Install Retail Direct Install Retail DI & RetailSpecialty CFLs (as of April 1, 2010)

3-Way 2.8 3.0 26.2 17.2 7.3Dimmable 1.8 1.7 27.6 18.1 7.3

CC Candelabra - decorative 2.4 2.6 13.7 9.0 12.0CC Candelabra - primary 2.9 3.1 22.0 14.4 12.0

CFL Candelabra and Torpedo 3.4 4.3 22.4 14.7 6.5Dimmable Reflector 1.7 1.8 31.3 20.6 7.6

Globe 2.6 3.0 15.4 10.1 6.0Outdoor 1.9 1.8 39.1 25.7 5.0

Reflector 4.5 8.0 30.1 19.7 7.6LED Downlights

LED Downlight- Inc_base 0.9 1.0 34.1 32.0 12.0

TRC B/C Ratio Annual kWh Savings


Weighting by Lamp Type for an “Any Specialty Lamp” Option• Allow programs the option of either claiming savings by

lamp type or using an “Any Specialty Lamp”• No ideal dataset to determine weighting from

– Change A Light 2008/2009 heavy skewed by multi-pack reflector and globe sales

– KEMA’s CA socket study only considered globes and reflectors• Four approaches possible

– 1. Weight by Change A Light sales volume as is – it’s the best information we have

– 2. Weight by Change A Light 1,2 and 3 pack sales – it’s more representative of typical retail programs

– 3. [Approach 1], but adjust globe and reflector proportions to match KEMA socket study

– 4. [Approach 2], but adjust globe and reflector proportions to match KEMA socket study


Weighting by Lamp Type for an “Any Specialty Lamp” Option

CA Globe to Reflector ratio = 1.2

Approach 1 Approach 2 Approach 3 Approach 4

Bulb Type All Sales1 to 3 Pack Sales Only All Sales

1 to 3 Pack Sales Only

Reflector 74.5% 55.3% 43.3% 39.3%Globe 20.5% 30.5% 51.7% 46.9%

CFL Candelabra 3.3% 3.1% 3.3% 3.0%3-Way 1.1% 6.9% 1.1% 6.7%

Outdoor 0.6% 3.9% 0.6% 3.8%Dimmable Reflector 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%

Change A Light Sales Volume, Globe and

Reflector Proportions Adjusted to Observed CA

Socket Study

Change A Light Sales Volume (2008 and 2009)


Weighting by Lamp Type for an “Any Specialty Lamp” Option

LifetimeLamp Type Direct Install Retail Direct Install Retail DI & Retail

Specialty CFLs (as of April 1, 2010)3-Way 2.8 3.0 26.2 17.2 7.3

Dimmable 1.8 1.7 27.6 18.1 7.3CC Candelabra - decorative 2.4 2.6 13.7 9.0 12.0

CC Candelabra - primary 2.9 3.1 22.0 14.4 12.0CFL Candelabra and Torpedo 3.4 4.3 22.4 14.7 6.5

Dimmable Reflector 1.7 1.8 31.3 20.6 7.6Globe 2.6 3.0 15.4 10.1 6.0

Outdoor 1.9 1.8 39.1 25.7 5.0Reflector 4.5 8.0 30.1 19.7 7.6

LED DownlightsLED Downlight- Inc_base 0.9 1.0 34.1 32.0 12.0

All Specialty CFLsAll Specialty CFLs: Approach 1 3.9 6.3 26.6 17.4 7.2All Specialty CFLs: Approach 2 3.6 5.1 25.1 16.5 6.9All Specialty CFLs: Approach 3 3.6 5.1 21.8 14.3 6.7All Specialty CFLs: Approach 4 3.4 4.6 22.6 14.8 6.7

TRC B/C Ratio Annual kWh Savings


7. Proposal1) Reduce direct install removal rates for standard and

specialty lamps from 12% to 4%2) Reduce direct install take-back rates for standard and

specialty lamps from 5% to 0%3) Accept proposed savings for specialty lamps by

specific lamp type 4) Accept one of four approaches to lamp type weighting5) Accept proposed savings for specialty lamp 6) Measure requirements:

1) Energy Star lamps, 5W or greater, 2) Retail: lamp type, package size, retail cost, and wattage3) Direct Install: lamp type, wattage, and room installed in

7) Revise analysis with updated sales and installation data in 24 months (April 2012)


Discussion

savings of specialty cfls and led downlights

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