saving peace in bosnia

8/13/2019 Saving Peace in Bosnia

1/96

SAVING PEACE IN BOSNIAMYTHS, CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES

Papers presented at The Lord Byron o!ndat"on#s $%%&

'on(eren'es on the (!t!re o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na he-d "n

Toronto, Be-+rade, and .ash"n+ton /0C0

The Lord Byron o!ndat"on (or Ba-1an St!d"es

$%2%


2/96

THE LOR/ BYRON OUN/ATION OR BAL3AN STU/IES 4as (o!nded 5y the-ate S"r A-(red Sher6an "n 2&&7 as a non)part"san resear'h 'enter deoted to st!dy"n+the Ba-1an Pen"ns!-a "n a-- "ts aspe'ts0 The o!ndat"on#s resear'h, p!5-"'at"ons and'on(eren'es are des"+ned to 'orre't the '!rrent trend o( p!5-"' 'o66entary, 4h"'htends, syste6at"'a--y, not to !nderstand eents 5!t to 'onstr!'t a ers"on o( Ba-1anr"a-r"es that ("ts da"-y po-"t"'a- re8!"re6ents0 The o!ndat"on "s na6ed a(ter a +reat.estern poet 4ho +ae h"s -"(e "n the ("+ht to (ree Ba-1an Chr"st"ans (ro6 Is-a6"' r!-e0Th"s 'ho"'e re(-e'ts "ts 5e-"e( "n the essent"a- !n"ty o( o!r '""-"*at"on0 The 4or1 o( TheLord Byron o!ndat"on "s 5ased on the a''eptan'e that the 'a!se o( to-eran'e "n atro!5-ed re+"on 'an neer 5e adan'ed 5y 6"srepresentat"on or 5y the sent"6enta- -apseo( ser"o!sness that a-- too o(ten 'hara'ter"*es .estern d"s'o!rse on the re+"on0

P!5-"shed "n the Un"ted States 5yThe Lord Byron o!ndat"on (or Ba-1an St!d"es

Ch"'a+o)Otta4a)London

Copyr"+ht 9 $%2% The Lord Byron o!ndat"on

ISBN &:;)2);&$7:;)%:);


3/96

Ta5-e o( Contents

Foreword ;thpara--e- and 5eyond, and no

end "n s"+ht (or "ts on+o"n+ e'ono6"', ("nan'"a-, and so'"a-)'!-t!ra-

pro5-e6s, the Un"ted States does not hae the reso!r'es to po-"'e and

s!5s"d"*e yet another step'h"-d Fnat"on)5!"-d"n+# pro@e't0

Th"s 5oo1, 5ased on the papers presented at "nternat"ona-

'on(eren'es sponsored and or+an"*ed 5y The Lord Byron o!ndat"on

"n Toronto, Be-+rade and .ash"n+ton /0C0 "n $%%&, "s presented "n the

hope that "t "s st"-- poss"5-e (or een)handedness, rea-"s6 and pr!den'e

to prea"-0 Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na has s!((ered a -ot thro!+h h"story,

a-6ost "nar"a5-y d!e to so6e d"stant po4ers# a65"t"ons and po-"'"es0 It

deseres to 5e -e(t 4e-- a-one0

Ch"'a+o and Otta4a, e5r!ary $%2% The Ed"tors

10


11/96

Does Bosnia Need a *Second Dayton%?

Steen E0 Meyer2

he "n1 4as hard-y dry on the 2&&< /ayton A''ords 4hen 'a--s

5e+an to s!r(a'e that a se'ond /ayton Con(eren'eD 4as

needed to 'o6p-ete the trans"t"on o( Bosn"a (ro6 a

dys(!n't"ona- 4ar)torn 4ard o( the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"tyD to a

"5rant, sta5-e, 6!-t")ethn"', (ree enterpr"se de6o'ra'y0 A-ready "n

Septe65er 2&&?, A65assador R"'hard Ho-5roo1e, the pr"6aryar'h"te't o( the /ayton a+ree6ent, sa"d that a se'ond 'on(eren'e 4as

re8!"red to stren+thenD these a''ords0 At the tenth ann"ersary o( the

A''ords, 4h"-e there 4as 5road se-( 'on+rat!-at"ons at the s!''essD o(

the /ayton a+ree6ent, 6any o(("'"a-s "n E!rope and the Un"ted States

sa4 the need to 'onene another /ayton)sty-ed 'on(eren'e to

'onso-"date the 5ene("tsD o( the 2&&< a+ree6ent and to ta1e Bosn"a to

the net -ee-0 In Mar'h $%%& the Internat"ona- Cr"s"s Gro!p p!5-"shedan assess6ent o( Bosn"a 4h"'h proposed a ser"es o( s!5stant"a-

re'o66endat"ons that are on'e a+a"n des"+ned to oer'o6e

'ons"dera5-e res"d!a- pro5-e6s thro!+h eer t"+hter 'entra- str!'t!res

s!pposed-y des"+ned to 5r"n+ Bosn"a "nto the E!ropean (a6"-y o( (!--y

(!n't"on"n+ states0

T

1/r0 Steen Meyer "s Pro(essor o( Po-"t"'a- S'"en'e at the Ind!str"a- Co--e+e o(

the Ar6ed or'es, Nat"ona- /e(ense Un"ers"ty "n .ash"n+ton /0C0

11


12/96

The Old Paradigm These are 5!t three t"6e)se8!en'ed ea6p-es o((a"r-y 'ons"stent 'a--s, present eer s"n'e -ate 2&&


13/96

("r6 'on"'t"on that on-y th"s hand(!- o( 6a@or po4ers5!t, pr"6ar"-y

the U0S0has the 1no4-ed+e, 4"sdo6, po4er and 4here4"tha- to

deter6"ne ho4 po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"t"es 6!st 5e esta5-"shed "( they are to

5e s!''ess(!- and dee6ed -e+"t"6ate0 It "s a parad"+6 that 'ons"ders the

"nterest o( the +reat po4ers to 5e 5oth ery 5road-y !nderstood and to

5e s!per"or to the "nterests o( the s6a--er po4ers they do6"nate0

Thro!+h 6!'h o( 6odern h"storyat -east s"n'e the 2


14/96

Ba-1ans has str!++-ed to atta"n the pres'r"5ed -ee- o( 6odern"ty0 B!t,

try as they 6ay, the Ba-1ans has neer 'o6e re6ote-y near the 6ar1,

e"ther po-"t"'a--y or e'ono6"'a--y0 /esp"te so6e ar"at"ons "n the -ee-

o( dee-op6ent, the 'o!ntr"es o( the Ba-1ans re6a"n pr"soners o( t4o

po4er(!- (or'es the on+o"n+ do6"nat"on o( o!ts"de po4ers, and the

propens"ty o( those po4ers to ad6"n"ster se-()"n(-"'ted 4o!nds0

Renewing the Old Paradigm /!r"n+ the 2&&%s, the Ba-1ans 5e'a6ethe s"n+-e 6ost "6portant (ore"+n po-"'y o( the C-"nton ad6"n"strat"on0

A-tho!+h that ad6"n"strat"on 4as s!''ess(!- "n end"n+ the 4ar "n

Bosn"a, "t str!++-ed as hae so 6any other po4ers "n the past to

des"+n and en(or'e a po-"t"'a- sett-e6ent "n the re+"on0 .h"-e the

/ayton A''ords 4ere the 'ornerstone o( the C-"nton ad6"n"strat"on#s

"neptness, "ts oera-- (a"-!res "n the re+"on hae he-ped so4 'ont"n!"n+

e'ono6"' and po-"t"'a- (a"-!re and 5a'14ardness "n the Ba-1ans0

The C-"nton ad6"n"strat"on#s sa"n+ +ra'e 4as that ("na--y -e(t

o(("'e and the Ba-1ans (aded (ro6 the A6er"'an (ore"+n po-"'y

'ons'"o!sness, not 5e'a!se s!''ess had 5een a'h"eed there 5!t

5e'a!se other 6ore ser"o!s 6atters "nterened and the "n'o6"n+ B!sh

ad6"n"strat"on had other pr"or"t"es0 The B!sh ad6"n"strat"on de'"ded

ear-y on "n "ts ten!re that the U0S0 4o!-d 4"thdra4 (ro6 the Ba-1ans

and t!rn the "ss!e oer to the E!ropeans to the +reatest etent poss"5-e0

B!sh d"d not de'"de to do th"s 5e'a!se he re@e'ted the o-d parad"+6 "n

(aor o( so6e ne4, en-"+htened 'o!rse o( a't"on, 5!t 5e'a!se he (e-t

'o6pe--ed to app-y the o-d parad"+6 "n other parts o( the 4or-d0

The end o( the B!sh ad6"n"strat"on and the adent o( the

O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on has seen a ret!rn o( the Ba-1ans to the A6er"'an

(ore"+n po-"'y a+enda0 It has 5e'o6e C-"nton era red!0 The Ba-1ans "n

+enera- and Bosn"a spe'"("'a--y are 5e"n+ p!shed as an "ss!e -ess 5y the

.h"te Ho!se and 6ore 5y the !pper -ee-s o( the ne4D State

/epart6ent0 In add"t"on, the Ba-1ans hae 5e'o6e a rene4ed pr"or"tya6on+ a (e4 pro6"nent po-"t"'"ans "n .estern E!rope and a6on+

seera- th"n1)tan1s and ado'a'y +ro!ps "n the Un"ted States0 The"r

14


15/96

stated 'on'ern "s that Bosn"a "s (a"-"n+, that "t "s not 6a1"n+ the

re8!"s"te pro+ress to4ard 5e'o6"n+ that "a5-e, sta5-e, de6o'rat"',

6!-t")ethn"', (ree enterpr"se state that dan'ed so ""d-y "n the"r

"6a+"nat"ons 4hen the /ayton A''ords 4ere 'on'-!ded "n 2&&


16/96


17/96

4as a pres'r"pt"on (or d"saster0 In the end, (or the 4ho ado'ate a

stron+ U0S0 reen+a+e6ent "n Bosn"a and the Ba-1ans, that 'o!ntry and

that re+"on as s!'h 4ere neer rea--y the po"nt0 or the6, the po"nt

spea1s to a stron+ stra"n o( A6er"'an "6per"a-"s6 and e'ept"ona-"s6,

the po4er o( 6an"(est dest"ny0 or 6any o( the6, the 'a!se o( Bosn"a

has 5e'o6e a 4ay to (!-("-- a persona- and psy'ho-o+"'a- need "n the

+!"se o( nat"ona- "nterest0

A (Not So) New Paradigm S"6p-y stated, Bosn"a does not a ne4/ayton or anyth"n+ een re6ote-y rese65-"n+ "t0 Under+"rd"n+ th"s

'ontent"on "s the 6ore 5as"' @!d+6ent that the o-d parad"+6 o( "6per"a-

"nterent"on has -on+ s"n'e o!t-"ed "ts !se(!-ness "n the +-o5a-"*"n+

4or-d o( the $2st 'ent!ry0 In a 4or-d "n 4h"'h e'ono6"', so'"a- and

po-"t"'a- str!'t!res are rap"d-y 'han+"n+, "t "s no -on+er 4or1a5-e or @!st

to deter6"ne the nat!re o( po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"ty (or others0 It "s

espe'"a--y "nappropr"ate (or a 6a@or po4er, s!'h as the U0S0, to atte6pt

to d"'tateD or een pres'r"5e the (or6 and s!5stan'e o( e'ono6"',

so'"a- and po-"t"'a- or+an"*at"on and "ntera't"on, s!'h as the Ba-1ans,

4h"'h "s o( 6"n"6a- nat"ona- "nterest0

Instead, the U0S0 and the 6a@or po4ers "n .estern E!rope need

to a''ept a ne4 parad"+6one that "s not rea--y a-- that ne40 In the

eo-"n+ 4or-d, no -on+er 4"-- there 5e one a''epta5-e, -e+"t"6ate 4ay

to or+an"*e 'o66!n"t"es, to p!rs!e "nterests, and to epress "deo-o+"es0

States 4"-- 'ont"n!e to 5e the do6"nant (or6 o( po-"t"'a- or+an"*at"on,

5!t they are 5e"n+ 'ha--en+ed "n'reas"n+-y 5y other 6odes o(

or+an"*at"on 5y non)state a'tors that are -ee-"n+ the +-o5a- p-ay"n+

("e-d 5y 5e'o6"n+ -e+"t"6ate and a!thor"tat"e or+ans o( po-"t"'a-,

so'"a- and e'ono6"' epress"on0 In the 'onte6porary 4or-d, th"s rea-"ty

"s 6an"(est "n a ne4 !nderstand"n+ o( se-()deter6"nat"on and se-()

a't!a-"*at"on0

These are not ne4 pr"n'"p-es, 5!t "n the past they hae a-6osta-4ays 5een epressed "n ter6s o( ne4 state (or6at"on or state re)

(or6at"on 5ased on so6e sort o( 6!t!a- 6ater"a-, '!-t!ra- or

17


18/96

"deo-o+"'a- "nterest0 .h"-e se-()deter6"nat"on and se-()a't!a-"*at"on

4"-- 'ont"n!e to 5e epressed th"s 4ay "n the (!t!re, "n'reas"n+-y

'o66!n"t"es 4"-- (or6 a-on+ 5!s"ness, '!-t!ra-, ethn"', re-"+"o!s,

6"-"tary, et'0 -"nes0 A-tho!+h at t"6es 'ontroers"a- and open to

d"((er"n+ "nterpretat"ons, one 'an po"nt (or "nstr!'t"on to the

s!5s"d"ar"tyD pr"n'"p-e that "s ("r6-y ens'on'ed "n E!ropean Un"on -a4

see the E!ropean Charter o( Lo'a- and Se-()Goern6ent and the 2&&$

Maastr"'ht Treaty0

or the 'onte6porary +reat po4ers to 5!y "nto a ne4 parad"+6

that -"n1s se-()deter6"nat"on, se-()a't!a-"*at"on and s!5s"d"ar"ty 4o!-d

re8!"re a 'han+e "n o!t-oo1 and po-"'y that "s, at 5est, !n-"1e-y 5!t

4h"'h 6ay 5e (or'ed !pon the6 5y eo-"n+ '"r'!6stan'e0 S!'h an

a''eptan'e 4o!-d re8!"re an ad6"ss"on that past .estern po-"'y has

(a"-ed "n the Ba-1ans and that a ne4 approa'h "s !nao"da5-e0

At 6"n"6!6 th"s 4o!-d re8!"re '-os"n+ the O(("'e o( the H"+h

Representat"e, end"n+ the Bonn Po4ers and Pea'e I6p-e6entat"on

Co66"ttee PIC so6e t"6e "n $%2%0 These t4o o(("'es, "n part"'!-ar,

are est"+es o( a heay)handed, o(ten oppress"e 4e"+ht on -o'a- se-()

dee-op6ent0 O( 'o!rse the OHR and the PIC see the6se-es as

en-"+htened +!arantors o( pea'e(!- trans"t"on to s!''ess(!- statehood (or

Bosn"a0 In the a5sen'e o( 4ar the oppos"te "s '-oser to rea-"ty, 5e'a!se

these or+an"*at"ons "nh"5"t the -o'a- part"es (ro6 'o6"n+ to ter6s 4"th

ea'h other0 The"r 'ont"n!ed e"sten'e en'o!ra+es e"ther s!5ter(!+e on

the part o( -o'a- a!thor"t"es or a pretet (or not ha"n+ to honest-y ("nd

areas o( 'o6pro6"se, a+ree6ent and d"sa+ree6ent0

Leaders "n .ash"n+ton, a-on+ 4"th those "n eery other 'ap"ta-,

rea-"*e at an "nte--e't!a- -ee- that the Co-d .ar era has passed "nto the

+-o5a-"*"n+, post)Septe65er 22 4or-d0 S"n'e th"s 6eans that A6er"'an

he+e6ony has passed and the 4or-d "s no4 6!'h 6ore d"((erent"ated,

rea- a''eptan'e 5y the .estern po-"'y 'o+nos'ent" "s etre6e-yd"(("'!-t0 Trans-at"n+ s!'h a''eptan'e "nto tr!e po-"'y 'han+e "s ery

d"(("'!-t0 It "s espe'"a--y hard (or those 4ho hae 'o6e to pro(ess"ona-

18


19/96

6at!r"ty d!r"n+ the heady days o( the Co-d .ar and hae 5een !sed to

A6er"'an s!pre6a'y0 Irrespe't"e o( 4hether A6er"'an and so6e

E!ropean po-"'y)6a1ers 'annot 6a1e the trans"t"on to the e6er+"n+

ne4 4or-d, "t "s "6portant that others do not (a-- prey to 5e-"e( "n an

A6er"'an do6"nan'e and he+e6ony that no -on+er e"st0 Indeed, "t "s

eer 6ore ne'essary (or po-"t"'a- -eaders "n the re+"on, and espe'"a--y "n

Bosn"a, to ho-d A6er"'an "n(-!en'e and "nter(eren'e at ar6#s -en+th,

and to eert the"r o4n -eadersh"p and "n(-!en'e (ar 6ore assert"e-y0

Iron"'a--y, the on-y p-a'e "n the Ba-1ans 4here that "s

happen"n+ r"+ht no4 "s "n the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a RS0 At -east (or no4,

the RS -eadersh"p, espe'"a--y M"-orad /od"1, has sho4n the 'o!ra+e,

(ort"t!de and "nte--"+en'e to "ns"st that -o'a- -eaders and '"t"*ens ta1e

respons"5"-"ty (or the"r (!t!res0 The SNS/ -eadersh"p has ta1en the

ad"'e o( M!s-"6 -eader S!-e@6an T"h" to end the ph"-osophy o(

"'t"6hood and se-()p"tyD that has peraded 5road s4aths o( Bosn"an)

M!s-"6 -eadersh"p s"n'e the 'o--apse o( Y!+os-a"a and 4h"'h a't!a--y

re"n(or'es .estern do6"nan'e0

I( th"s eper"6ent "n -o'a- 'ontro- and de'"s"on 6a1"n+,

'ons"stent 4"th the EU po-"'y o( s!5s"d"ar"ty, "s to 'ont"n!e and -o'a-s

are to +a"n rea- and -ast"n+ 'ontro- o( the po-"t"'a- pro'ess, "t 4"-- 5e

ne'essary (or the Bosn"an Ser5 Rep!5-"' to 'ont"n!e to -ead0 To do th"s,

RS -eaders need to art"'!-ate and p!rs!e seera- spe'"("' po-"'"es

Re"e the FPr!d Pro'ess# 5ased on d"re't ne+ot"at"ons (ree(ro6 (ore"+n 6edd-"n+ 5et4een the part"es "ns"de Bosn"a)

Her*e+o"na, not 5e'a!se "t 4"-- ne'essar"-y -ead to a+ree6ent

on the str!'t!re and (!n't"on o( po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"ty, 5!t

5e'a!se "t e6po4ers the -eaders and '"t"*ens "n the re+"on to

ta1e 'har+e o( the"r o4n -"es0

As The RS needs to "ns"st on e-"6"nat"on o( the OHR, the Bonn

Po4ers, and the PIC "n $%2%0 These are a-- est"+es o(oer5ear"n+ 'on'epts and po-"'"es that hae -on+ s"n'e o!t-"ed

the"r !se(!-ness0

19


20/96

Under /ayton the RS 'an epand '!-t!ra-, se'!r"ty, and

espe'"a--y e'ono6"' re-at"ons 4"th 6any other areas0 In

part"'!-ar, the RS sho!-d see1 to epand "ts 'red"t -"ne 4"th

R!ss"a0

Epand and "6proe too-s to prote't "ts ("nan'"a- assets and !se

("nan'"a- assets as -eera+e "n Bosn"a and thro!+ho!t the

Ba-1ans0

Epand M"n"stry o( Inter"or MUP po-"'e (or'es as a 4ay o(

5etter prote't"n+ RS peop-e and property0 Th"s sho!-d 5e seenas '-ear-y a de(ens"e, 'a!t"onary 6eas!re0

Ep-ore epand"n+ re-at"ons 4"th Ser5"a, 4h"'h "s 8!"te

'ons"stent 4"th Art"'-e IV o( the /ayton A''ords0

Conclusion It "s a t"6e o( potent"a--y s"+n"("'ant 'han+e "n theBa-1ans +enera--y and spe'"("'a--y "n Bosn"a and the RS"t "s perhaps

the 6ost "6portant t"6e s"n'e the adent o( the /ayton A''ords "n

2&&


21/96

A New Bosnian Crisis?

=a6es B"ssett2

6er"'an rene4ed "nterest "n the re+"on "s 5ad ne4s (or the

Ser5"an peop-e "n +enera- and (or the Rep!5-"' o( Srps1a "n

part"'!-ar0 The A6er"'an re'ord "n the Ba-1ans s"n'e the

5rea1 !p o( the (or6er Y!+os-a"a "n the ear-y 2&&%#s has 5een

d"sastro!s0 In Mar'h 2&&$, the Port!+!ese (ore"+n 6"n"ster, =ose

C!t"-e"ro, a't"n+ on 5eha-( o( the E!ropean Un"on, 4as a5-e, thro!+h

s1"--(!- d"p-o6a'y, to arran+e a pea'e(!- sett-e6ent o( the Bosn"an

'r"s"s 5y +ett"n+ the M!s-"6s, Ser5s and Croats to a+ree to a pea'e p-an

that 4o!-d +"e a!tono6y to the three +ro!ps and a--o4 Bosn"a to e"st

as an "ndependent state0

A

Not 4"--"n+ to a''ept th"s sens"5-e so-!t"on the Un"ted States

sent the"r A65assador "n Be-+rade to Sara@eo to pers!ade the M!s-"6

-eader, A-"a I*et5e+o"', to reno!n'e the a+ree6ent and to de'-are

!n"-atera- "ndependen'e0 The A65assador pro6"sed that a(ter the

anno!n'e6ent the Un"ted States 4o!-d "66ed"ate-y re'o+n"*e the ne4

state0 I*et5e+o"' see"n+ h"s opport!n"ty to 5e'o6e the -eader o( the

("rst M!s-"6 state "n the heart o( E!rope a'ted a''ord"n+-y0 .hat

(o--o4ed 4as, as to 5e epe'ted, a (ero'"o!s three 4ay '""- 4ar that

'ost 2%%,%%% -"es and the d"sp-a'e6ent o( h!ndreds o( tho!sands o(

peop-e (ro6 the"r an'estra- ho6es0

1A65assador =a6es B"ssett "s Cha"r6an o( The Lord Byron o!ndat"on,

(or6er head o( Canada#s I66"+rat"on Ser"'e, and (or6er Canad"anA65assador to Y!+os-a"a

21


22/96

/!r"n+ the 'o!rse o( the 4ar the A6er"'ans pro-on+ed the

'on(-"'t 5y sa5ota+"n+ eery e((ort o( the E!ropean Un"on to arran+e a

'ease ("re and pea'e(!- sett-e6ent0 In add"t"on, the A6er"'ans

s!pported the M!s-"6 'a!se 5y se'ret-y pro"d"n+ the6 4"th ar6s and

e8!"p6ent and arran+"n+ (or the entry "nto Bosn"a o( seera- tho!sand

eteran M!@"hadeen to ("+ht a+a"nst the Bosn"an Ser5 (or'es0 Later "n

the 'on(-"'t "t 4as US press!re that o5ta"ned UN approa- to 'ond!'t

NATO a"r str"1es a+a"nst the Ser5s0

o--o4"n+ the end o( the 'on(-"'t and the pea'e a+ree6ent

s"+ned "n /ayton "n 2&&


23/96

A6er"'an 'ond!'t "n the Ba-1ans has 5een (!rther tarn"shed 5y the"r

atte6pt to @!st"(y the"r etraord"nary 5eha"or 5y de6on"*"n+ Ser5"a0

Th"s has 5een a''o6p-"shed 5y an or+an"*ed and h"+h-y s!''ess(!-

6ed"a 'a6pa"+n to 5-a6e the respons"5"-"ty (or a-- o( the tra+"' eents

that o''!rred a(ter the d"s"nte+rat"on o( Y!+os-a"a on S-o5odan

M"-ose"' and Ser5"a0

Today thro!+ho!t the +-o5e th"s s"6p-"st"' "e4 "s a''epted and

re6a"ns !n'ha--en+ed0 A'ade6"'s, po-"t"'"ans, @o!rna-"sts, enterta"ners,

a!thorsQ '-a"6 the Ser5s are the perpetrators o( a-- o( the 'r"6es, the

"o-en'e and the 5-oodshed "n the (or6er Y!+os-a"a0

The U0S0)5a'1ed and ("nan'ed Internat"ona- Cr"6"na- Tr"5!na-

(or the (or6er Y!+os-a"a ICTY has a-so p-ayed a 6a@or ro-e "n

portray"n+ the Ser5s as the "--a"ns "n the Ba-1an tra+edy0 A-6ost a-- o(

the senten'es handed do4n 5y the Tr"5!na- hae 5een a+a"nst Ser5s0

Seera- o( the 6ost ser"o!s 'on"'t"ons hae re-"ed on the d!5"o!s

'har+es o( @o"nt 'r"6"na- enterpr"se and 'o66and respons"5"-"ty,D

'on'epts des"+ned 5y the Tr"5!na- to 'on"'t "nd""d!a-s o( 'r"6es o(

4h"'h they the6se-es d"d not 'o66"t0 In 'ontrast, so6e o( the 6ost

notor"o!s M!s-"6 and A-5an"an 3osoars 'har+ed 4"th 'r"6es they d"d

'o66"t hae 5een re-eased 5y the tr"5!na- or hae re'e"ed -"+ht

senten'es0

The ICTY has 5een ha"-ed as a 6a@or step "n 5r"n+"n+ 4ar

'r"6"na-s to @!st"'e and to ens!re that those 4ho 'o66"t 'r"6es a+a"nsth!6an"ty 4"-- not +o !np!n"shed0 In (a't the Tr"5!na- at the Ha+!e has

a'ted 6ore "n 1eep"n+ 4"th the pro'esses (o--o4ed 5y the Sta-"n"st

sho4 tr"a-s o( the -ate 2&>%#s0The Tr"5!na- has 5een !sed as a

propa+anda 6a'h"ne and a 'onen"ent 'oer (or the 6"s+!"ded and

da6a+"n+ po-"'"es (o--o4ed 5y the US -ed NATO po4ers and 5e'a!se

o( "ts sha6e(!- re'ord "t has, "ron"'a--y, dea-t a ser"o!s 5-o4 to the ery

'on'ept o( "nternat"ona- @!st"'e0Do&)le Standards An o5@e't"e anays"s o( U0S0 po-"'y "n the

Ba-1ans s"n'e the ear-y 2&&%#s 4"-- o5sere that "t has 5een 5ased on

23


24/96

the ass!6pt"on that the 'o!ntr"es o( the Ba-1ans and the peop-es -""n+

there are not 8!"te 4orthy o( 5e"n+ treated as e8!a-s !nder the nor6a-

-a4s o( the 'o66!n"ty o( nat"ons0 Ser5"a and "ts '"t"*ens hae 5een

a''orded the stat!s o( 4hat R!dyard 3"p-"n+, the En+-"sh poet and

4r"ter, des'r"5ed as, -esser 5reeds 4"tho!t the -a40D

Th"s (a-se ass!6pt"on has pers!aded A6er"'an po-"t"'"ans that

the Un"ted Nat"ons Charter, The He-s"n1" "na- A''ords and the nor6s

o( "nternat"ona- -a4 do not app-y to the Ba-1ans0 It ep-a"ns 4hy

.ash"n+ton 4as so sho'1ed 4hen the R!ss"ans rep!-sed the Geo+"an

assa!-t on So!th Osset"a "n A!+!st $%%;0 The U0S0 +oern6ent 5"tter-y

'o6p-a"ned at that t"6e that R!ss"a had "o-ated Geor+"an soere"+nty

and "ts terr"tor"a- "nte+r"ty0 On-y s" 6onths ear-"er the Un"ted States

had re'o+n"*ed the "ndependen'e o( 3osoo a '-ear "o-at"on o(

Ser5"a#s terr"tor"a- "nte+r"ty and soere"+nty0 Yet the hypo'r"sy o( s!'h

protests see6ed not to 5e not"'ed e"ther 5y US po-"t"'a- -eaders or 5y

the .estern 6ed"a0

E"dent-y the A6er"'ans 5e-"ee they 'an +et a4ay 4"th

anyth"n+ "n the Ba-1ans and do so 4"tho!t 4orry"n+ a5o!t the

'onse8!en'es or o( the dread(!- da6a+e they hae done to the

(ra6e4or1 o( pea'e and se'!r"ty "n the 4or-d0 The 5o65"n+ o( Ser5"a

"n 2&&& 4as a h"stor"' t!rn"n+ po"nt 5e'a!se "t sho4ed that the

pr"n'"p-es o( the UN Charter 4ere no -on+er respe'ted 5y the 4or-d#s

6ost po4er(!- nat"on0 !rther6ore, the 5o65"n+ ena5-ed the Un"ted

States to 'o) opt NATO "nto 5e'o6"n+, "n e((e't, an "nstr!6ent o( US

6"-"tary po4er as opposed to "ts or"+"na- ro-e o( de(end"n+ E!rope (ro6

So"et a++ress"on and operat"n+ "n a''ordan'e 4"th the pr"n'"p-es o(

the UN Charter0

The s!5se8!ent re'o+n"t"on o( 3osoo "ndependen'e 4as

s"6p-y the -o+"'a- etens"on o( po-"'"es 'arr"ed o!t 5y US po-"'y

6a1ers 4"tho!t re+ard to the (ate(!- 'onse8!en'es s!'h po-"'"es 6"+hthae e-se4here or "n the (!t!re0 Sad-y, the p!5-"' 'ond"t"oned 5y a

'o6p-"ant 6ed"a 'ont"n!es to 5e-"ee the rhetor"' o( the"r po-"t"'a-

24


25/96

-eaders and "nte--e't!a- e-"te that A6er"'a st"-- stands (or de6o'ra'y, the

r!-e o( -a4 and e8!a- treat6ent (or a-- nat"ons0

Decline of A$erican Power At the heart o( the pro5-e6 "s the h!5r"s

that a''o6pan"es !nr"a-ed po4er 5ased pr"6ar"-y on 6"-"tary

s!pre6a'y0 In the 2&&%#s the Un"ted States stood a-one as the +reatest

6"-"tary po4er "n the 4or-d0 It 'o!-d do as "t 4"shed, not on-y "n the

Ba-1ans 5!t any4here0 It 'o!-d a't 4"tho!t (ear o( repr"sa-0 Ho4eer,

that po4er s!pre6a'y "s no4 5e"n+ 'ha--en+ed0

The eents "n Geor+"a "n A!+!st $%%; sho4ed that a res!r+entR!ss"a 4"-- no -on+er stand 5y and a--o4 the U0S0 to do as "t 4"shed "n

areas o( R!ss"a#s nat"ona- "nterest0 The +ro4"n+ e'ono6"' po4er o(

Ch"na, Ind"a, Bra*"- and the 'r"t"'a- e'ono6"' and ("nan'"a- 'r"s"s no4

(a'ed 5y the Un"ted States 6!st "ne"ta5-y (or'e the Un"ted States to

4"thdra4 (ro6 "ts do6"nant pos"t"on as the on-y 4or-d po4er0

Moreoer, added to the 'r"t"'a- ("nan'"a- d"saster (a'"n+ the

U0S0 "s the on+o"n+ 4ars "n Ira8 and A(+han"stan, the poss"5-e 'o--apseo( Pa1"stan, the 'ont"n!"n+ threat o( a terror"st str"1e at ho6e and the

'ha--en+e o( a n!'-ear ar6ed North 3orea and perhaps Iran0 These

dee-op6ents hae rad"'a--y 'han+ed the +eopo-"t"'a- -ands'ape0 One

6"+ht hope that A6er"'an -eaders 4"-- rea-"*e that they 'annot 5e dea-t

4"th 5y the !se o( (or'e or 5y the threat o( (or'e0

The s!dden and rene4ed "nterest o( US po-"'y 6a1ers "n

Bosn"a 4o!-d "nd"'ate that there are 6any "n .ash"n+ton 4ho are not

a4are o( the 'han+"n+ 5a-an'e o( po4er "n the 4or-d0 Ho4 e-se 'an one

ep-a"n the re)en+a+e6entD "n Ba-1an a((a"rs As h"story sho4s, th"s

'an -ead to pro5-e6s that rea'h (ar 5eyond the Ba-1ans0 A(ter the

'atastroph"' res!-ts o( A6er"'an "nterent"on "n Bosn"a "n the 2&&%#s,

4hy no4 r"s1 ne4 d"saster 5y ret!rn"n+ to the s'ene o( the 'r"6e

-s +here a Bosnian Crisis? /ayton ended the 5-oody 'on(-"'t that

had 5een ra+"n+ "n Bosn"a (ro6 2&&$ to 2&&< and 5ro!+ht a5o!t a

5a-an'e o( d"sasat"s(a't"on to the three 4arr"n+ s"des0 Oer the past

25


26/96

("(teen years the 'o!ntry has 6ana+ed to (!n't"on a-tho!+h "t "s not

6a1"n+ 6!'h pro+ress "n ter6s o( e'ono6"' prosper"ty or +ood

+oernan'e0 O( 'o!rse, thehe 5"tterness o( the saa+e '""- 4ar 4"th "ts

ethn"' '-eans"n+ and 6!t!a- atro'"t"es has not 5een (or+otten0 The

M!s-"6 -eadersh"p, "n part"'!-ar, re6a"ns steeped "n a sense o(

"'t"6hood and ent"t-e6ent0 Neerthe-ess, the 'o!ntry "s at pea'e and

there "s no "nd"'at"on that any o( the Bosn"ans 4hether Ser5, Croat or

M!s-"6 are an"o!s to hae another ar6ed 'on(-"'t er!pt0 .h"-e "t "s

tr!e there are ser"o!s o5sta'-es to oer'o6e "( the present Bosn"a "s to

prosper and 6eet the re8!"re6ents (or entry "nto the EU, 4hat "s ther!sh The e"sten'e o( "ss!es to oer'o6e does not 6ean there "s a

'r"s"s that re8!"res !r+ent reso-!t"on0

The 'ore o( the pro5-e6 "s the "ns"sten'e that (ore"+n "np!t "s

needed to reso-e -o'a- pro5-e6s0 The o(("'e o( the H"+h Representat"e

"s '-ear-y part o( the pro5-e60 Bosn"a 'ont"n!es to 5e treated as "t 4as

(o--o4"n+ the Con+ress o( Ber-"n "n 2;:;, 4hen "t 4as handed oer to

A!str"a)H!n+ary0 Today, the H"+h Representat"e "s another A!str"an,

Va-ent"n In*1o0 He and those pre'ed"n+ h"6 s"n'e 2&&< hae a'ted as

-o'a- +a!-e"tersD and are 8!"te prepared to ta1e s"des and to eer'"se

the"r d"'ator"a- po4ers0

The A6er"'an p!sh (or reshap"n+ the /ayton a+ree6ent or

s'rapp"n+ "t a-to+ether has noth"n+ to do 4"th he-p"n+ oer'o6e the

d"(("'!-t"es 'on(ronted 5y the three s"des "n Bosn"a0 H"stor"'a--y,

"nterent"on "n the Ba-1ans neer has 5een "n the "nterest o( the -o'a-

peop-e -""n+ there 5!t a-4ays "t has 5een to sere the (ore"+n po-"'y

o5@e't"es o( the "nteren"n+ po4er0 I( the A6er"'an de'"s"on)6a1ers

hope that they 'an 4"n the hearts and 6"nds o( the Is-a6"' 4or-d 5y

("na--y restor"n+ Bosn"a to M!s-"6 r!-e, as "t 4as d!r"n+ the -on+ years

o( the Otto6an e6p"re, they are de-!ded0 Here"n -"es the rea- dan+er0

Here"n "s the rea- 'r"s"s "n Bosn"a0

26


27/96

Leave the Balkans to the Balkans

/o!+ Bando42

or near-y t4o de'ades the Ba-1ans has 5een a 6a@or pr"or"ty o(

U0S0 (ore"+n po-"'y0 .ash"n+ton "n"t"ated 6"-"tary a't"on "n

Bosn"a and (!-- s'a-e 4ar a+a"nst Ser5"a to redra4 the Ba-1ans

6ap0 The U0S0 a-so deoted 5"--"ons o( do--ars and enor6o!s

d"p-o6at"' e((orts to reen+"neer 'o!ntr"es and terr"tor"es to s!"t

ar5"trary A6er"'an pre(eren'es0

Yet U0S0 "nterests "n the Ba-1ans 4ere and re6a"n 6"n"6a-

at 5est0 A5sent a Co-d .ar en"ron6ent 4h"'h 'o!-d t!rn a -o'a-

'on(-"'t "nto a +-o5a- 'on(-a+rat"on, the Ba-1ans 6attered 6ost to the

res"dents o( the re+"on, and 6!'h 6ore to the E!rope than to A6er"'a

and not 6!'h een to the (or6er0

One o( the !n(ort!nate 'onse8!en'es o( the end o( the Co-d

.ar 4as the 5-oody d"s"nte+rat"on o( Y!+os-a"a0 There 4as 6ore than

a -"tt-e 5-a6e, and 6ore than a (e4 atro'"t"es, to spread aro!nd0

Ho4eer, a--"ed po-"'y 4as 5!"-t on a destr!'t"e hypo'r"sy eery

ethn"' +ro!p 'o!-d se'ede (ro6 Ser5)do6"nated po-"t"'a- ent"t"es, 5!t

Ser5s 'o!-d neer se'ede (ro6 a po-"t"'a- a!thor"ty do6"nated 5y

anyone e-se0

2/o!+ Bando4 "s a Sen"or e--o4 at the Cato Inst"t!te0 A (or6er Spe'"a-

Ass"stant to Pres"dent Rona-d Rea+an, he "s the a!thor o( seera- 5oo1s,"n'-!d"n+"oreign "ollies: #mericas !e$ %lobal Empire!-on0

27


28/96

Th"s 4as, "n (a't, the on-y e"dent pr"n'"p-e pro6oted 5y the

U0S0 and E!ropeans, and "t had dead-y 'onse8!en'es0 Rather than

open"n+ the 4ay to a ne+ot"ated "( 'o6p-"'ated redra4"n+ o( po-"t"'a-

5o!ndar"es, the .estern a--"es "ns"sted that the ne4 states 'reated o!t o(

the o-d Y!+os-a"a stay 4"th"n the"r 5o!ndar"es as dra4n !p, 6ost-y

ar5"trar"-y, 5y T"to#s 'o66!n"sts0 Th"s pro6pted the "nha5"tants o(

Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na, that er"ta5-e 6"'ro'os6 o( o-d Y!+os-a"a#s

ethn"' 'o6p-e"ty, to s-!+ "t o!t (or 'ontro-0

It 4as here that .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-s, "( not a-- o( the

6e65er states o( the E!ropean Un"on, hae ret!rned to a po-"'y o(

'o-on"a-"s6, 4"th a ne4, h!6an"tar"an +-oss0 The ne4 -odestar "s 6!-t")

'!-t!ra- de6o'ra'y, "rrespe't"e o( the 4"shes o( the '"t"*ens o( the

part"'!-ar terr"tory "no-edQ unless"t "s Ser5s 4ho 4"sh to 6a"nta"n a6!-t")ethn"' state, "n 4h"'h 'ase se'ess"on "n the na6e o( se-()

deter6"nat"on "s the .est#s pre(erred po-"'y0 Th!s, .ash"n+ton#s

po-"'y has 5een to "6poseafterthe 5rea1!p o( Y!+os-a"a, nat!ra--y

a .estern "s"on o( -"5era- p-!ra-"s6 on peop-es 6ore "n'-"ned to

order the"r po-"t"'s a-on+ ethn"' -"nes0 Moreoer, the U0S0, (o--o4ed a

5"t 6ore re-!'tant-y 5y the E!ropeans, 6ana+ed Ba-1an a((a"rs 4"th

-"tt-e 'on'ern (or R!ss"an "nterests0 Th"s po-"'y he-ped spa4n

Mos'o4#s p!n"sh"n+ response to Geor+"a#s proo'at"e 5eha"or "n

So!th Osset"a "n the s!66er o( $%%;0

It 'o6es as no s!rpr"se, then, that .ash"n+ton#s po-"'y "n the

Ba-1ans has had d"sappo"nt"n+ res!-ts0 The re+"on st"-- "s d""ded

ethn"'a--y, po-"t"'a--y, and re-"+"o!s-y0 .h"-e a "o-ent 5rea1do4n o(

the present order see6s !n-"1e-y, s!'h a 'r"s"s 4o!-d "ne"ta5-y p!-- the

Un"ted States 5a'1 "nto 'on(-"'ts -ar+e-y "rre-eant to "ts o4n se'!r"ty0

3osoo has de'-ared "ts "ndependen'e 4"th the B!sh

ad6"n"strat"on#s s!pport, 5!t has 4on the re'o+n"t"on o( -ess than a

th"rd o( the 4or-d#s nat"ons0 Ser5s "n the north re(!se to s!56"t to3LA#s 'ontro-, -ea"n+ 3osoo an a6p!tated 4anna5e)state0

28


29/96

Ser5"a "s +oerned 5y a 'oa-"t"on that "s pro).estern "n the

sense o( 5e"n+ 'o66"tted to enter"n+ the E!ropean Un"on, 5!t 4h"'h

'ont"n!es to oppose an "ndependent 3osoo0 U0S0 and so6e E!ropean

o(("'"a-s ar+!e that Ser5"a sho!-d (or+et "ts an+er oer 5e"n+ shorn o( "ts

terr"tory and a'8!"es'e "n 3osoo#s "ndependen'e0 A''ord"n+ to the

U0S0 Goern6ent)(!nded Rad"o ree E!rope, Ser5"a needs to 6a1e "t

'-ear to Ban@a L!1a that Bosn"a#s Ser5s 6!st see1 so-!t"ons to the"r

pro5-e6s "n Sara@eo and not "n Be-+rade0D Instead o( s!'h heay)

handedness, the U0S0 sho!-d (ores4ear (!rther "nterent"on "n Ser5"an

po-"t"'s, e"ther d"re't-y or thro!+h +oern6ent (!nded "nst"t!tes andNGOs0 The U0S0 a-so sho!-d red!'e trade 5arr"ers to Ser5"an

'o66er'e, to en'o!ra+e pr"ate e'ono6"' t"es0

Ethn"' tens"on re6a"ns a dan+ero!s !nder'!rrent "n the (or6er

Y!+os-a rep!5-"' o( Ma'edon"a, 4h"'h "s e((e't"e-y d""ded "nto

S-a"' and A-5an"an re+"ons0 I( 3osoo eent!a--y s!''eeds as an

"ndependent state, "t 6"+ht 'reate an een +reater dra4 (or ethn"'

A-5an"ans0 In add"t"on, S1op@e re6a"ned -o'1ed "n a 5"tter d"sa+ree6ent

4"th Gree'e oer "ts !se o( the na6e Ma'edon"a0 .h"-e the U0S0

sho!-d en'o!ra+e the t4o ne"+h5ors to sett-e the na6e "ss!e, "t sho!-d

not (!rther epand NATO "nto the Ba-1ans, 4h"'h "s a se'!r"ty 5-a'1

ho-e0 I( the EU 4"shes to atte6pt to pa'"(y the Ba-1ans, "t "s 4e-'o6e

to do so0

The end o( the Co-d .ar sho!-d hae -ed to a reth"n1"n+ o(

A6er"'a#s ro-e "n NATO0 B!t po-"'"n+ the Ba-1ans t!rned "nto a

@!st"("'at"on (or epand"n+ the a--"an'e and "n'reas"n+ U0S0 6"-"tary

'o66"t6ents0 Espe'"a--y no4, 4"th so 6any respons"5"-"t"es e-se4here,

the U0S0 sho!-d 5e+"n rat"ona-"*"n+ "ts (ore"+n and 6"-"tary po-"'"es,

t!rn"n+ o!ts"de respons"5"-"ty (or the Ba-1ans oer to E!rope0 The

E!ropeans 6ay 4h"ne a5o!t U0S0 d"sen+a+e6ent, 5!t the pro'ess

4o!-d 5e sa-!tary (or the60 or years -ead"n+ E!ropean o(("'"a-s hae

pro6oted a separate E!ropean de(ense and (ore"+n po-"'y0 Yet these

e((orts hae ro!t"ne-y 'o6e to na!+ht, s"n'e there 4as no press"n+ need

29


30/96

(or the E!ropeans to sh"(t (!nds (ro6 !ndo!5ted-y epens"e 4e-(are

states to see6"n+-y !nne'essary 6"-"tar"es0 ."th the A6er"'an sa(ety

net 4"thdra4n, the E!ropeans 4o!-d hae to re'ons"der the"r se'!r"ty

re8!"re6ents0

Bosnia the #nvia)le Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na 'ont"n!es to 5e r!n -ar+e-y

5y a--"ed d"1tat a de'ade and a ha-( a(ter "ts 'reat"on, !-nera5-e to

ethn"' separat"s6 4"th"n and -a'1"n+ a "a5-e e'ono6y0 There "s 6!'h

4a"-"n+ and +nash"n+ o( teeth "n .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-s a-"1e oer

Bosn"a#s (a"-!re to 5-osso6 "nto a 'o6p-"ant 4o!-d)5e 6e65er o( the

EU as p-anned0 V"'e Pres"dent =oseph B"den th!s 'h"ded -o'a- -eaders,

and espe'"a--y the Ser5s, (or (a"-"n+ to heed the"r (ore"+n 5etters0

The ("+ht"n+ "n Bosn"a 4as 5"tter and 'ost-y, tho!+h ado'ates

o( "nterent"on ro!t"ne-y ea++erated 'as!a-t"es (or po-"t"'a- e((e't0

.estern 6"-"tary press!re a+a"nst the Bosn"an Ser5s and e'ono6"'

san't"ons a+a"nst Ser5"a -ed to the 2&&< 'on(eren'e "n /ayton0 The so)

'a--ed /ayton A+ree6ent 'reated a (edera- Bosn"an state, 4"th"n 4h"'h

the Bosn"a1)Croat"an ederat"on and the RS 'o!-d eer'"se s!5stant"a-

a!tono6y0 The a--"es 'reated the O(("'e o( the H"+h Representat"e to

r!n the terr"tory -"1e an "6per"a- +oernor o( o-d0 .hen the .estern

a--"es spo1e o( de6o'ra'y, they 6eant the e-e't"on o( 'o6p-"ant

o(("'"a-s 4"--"n+ to "6p-e6ent po-"'"es de'"ded 5y the "6per"a- po4ers

"rrespe't"e o( the 4"shes o( the "+norant -o'a-s0

The res!-ts hae 5een d"sappo"nt"n+0 There "s -"tt-e se-()s!sta"n"n+ e'ono6"' +ro4th, as stat"st e'ono6"' po-"'"es d"s'o!ra+e

entreprene!rsh"p and 5!s"ness 'reat"on Bosn"a has 5een ran1ed

n!65er 2$2 "n the 4or-d "n ter6s o( e'ono6"' (reedo6, and 4e--

5e-o4 aera+e on 5!s"ness (reedo6, +oern6ent s"*e, property r"+hts,

'orr!pt"on, and -a5or (reedo60 Irena =an1!-o, an e'ono6"st 4"th the

Internat"ona- Monetary !nd, 'o6p-a"ns that the oera5!ndan'e o(

p!5-"' se'tor o(("'"a-s "s "6ped"n+ +ro4th0D The .est has po!red5"--"ons o( do--ars "nto "ts nat"on)5!"-d"n+ pro@e't, 5!t een as


31/96

As 6!'h as a 5"--"on do--ars has d"sappeared (ro6 p!5-"' (!nds or

5een sto-en (ro6 "nternat"ona- a"d pro@e'ts thro!+h (ra!d0D

Po-"t"'a- adan'es, too, hae 5een s-o40 reedo6 Ho!se

reports that Bosn"a re6a"ns +de("'"ent "n ter6s o( +oernan'e,

"ndependent 6ed"a, and 'orr!pt"on0 E-e't"ons hae 5een do6"nated 5y

ethn"' po-"t"'s, res!-t"n+ "n (re8!ent "nterent"ons 5y the H"+h

Representat"e to oert!rn the peop-e#s 'ho"'es0

Indeed, 6ost o( the H"+h Representat"es +-or"ed "n the

ar5"trary eer'"se o( the"r po4er0 .o-(+an+ Petr"ts'h anno!n'ed that hed"d not hes"tate to !se 6y a!thor"ty to "6pose -e+"s-at"on and d"s6"ss

o(("'"a-s0D In -ate $%%; h"s s!''essor, M"ros-a La@a1 o( S-oa1"a,

'r"t"'"*ed the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a RS (or 5e"n+ "n open de("an'eD o(

the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty 4hateer that "s, add"n+ .e don#t hae

to +o 5a'1 too (ar "nto the h"story to see ho4 de(y"n+ the "nternat"ona-

'o66!n"ty !s!a--y ends !p0D He a-so de6anded that -o'a- -eaders stop

'r"t"'"*"n+D h"60 Boss T4eed 4o!-d 5e @ea-o!s0

A-tho!+h Bosn"a theoret"'a--y "s on the path to EU

6e65ersh"p, the 8!as")state has not 6et the re8!"re6ents to a--o4 "sa)

(ree trae- thro!+ho!t E!rope0 Less than ha-( o( the pop!-at"on

epresses any enth!s"as6 (or @o"n"n+ the EU0 Morton A5ra6o4"t* and

/an"e- Ser4er ad6"tted, Bosn"a "s a non(!n't"on"n+ state0D =an M!s at

the Un"ers"ty o( Maastr"'ht 4rote o( the 6a"n Bosn"an pro5-e6s,

na6e-y the "ne(("'"en'y o( the state "nst"t!t"ons, the e'ono6"' !nder)dee-op6ent, the har6(!- d""s"on o( 'o6peten'es 5et4een the state

and the re+"ons, and the -a'1 o( re'on'"-"at"on 5et4een three

F'onst"t!ent# nat"ons0D That#s 8!"te a -"st0

+hose Ser)s A0ain1 .hat 6ost !psets U0S0 and E!ropean o(("'"a-s "s

the (a"-!re o( so6e 6"--"on and a ha-( Ser5s o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na to

'heer(!--y a''ept a--"ed d"'tates0 In /e'e65er $%%; La@a1 'o6p-a"ned

that the RS sho!-d stop proo1"n+ the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty and 5eser"o!s, state)6a1"n+ partners0D

31


32/96

The Ser5s hae @ea-o!s-y +!arded the"r a!tono6y, re(!s"n+, (or

"nstan'e, to "nte+rate the"r po-"'e (or'e 4"th that o( the ederat"on0

3osoo#s de'-arat"on o( "ndependen'e !nderstanda5-y has -ed to

"n'reased Bosn"an Ser5 "nterest "n "ndependen'e0 A-tho!+h RS pr"6e

6"n"ster M"-orad /od"1 re"terates h"s s!pport (or /ayton and the EU,

he a-so has threatened to ho-d an "ndependen'e re(erend!6 "( the Ser5s

are (!rther p!shed "nto a 'entra-"*ed str!'t!re0 That e-"'"ted ehe6ent

den!n'"at"ons (ro6 .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-s0

=a6es Lyons o( so6eth"n+ 'a--ed /e6o'rat"*at"on Po-"'y

Co!n'"- sees /od"1 en+a+ed "n a stea-th 'a6pa"+n, e6!-at"n+

Montene+ro#s +rad!a- path to "ndependen'e 5y 5-o'1"n+ state

"nst"t!t"ons (ro6 (!n't"on"n+ and atte6pt"n+ to ta1e state)-ee-

'o6peten'"es (or h"s ent"ty, 4h"-e atte6pt"n+ to '-a"6 attr"5!tes o(

soere"+nty (or Rep!5-"1a Srps1a0D Rad"o ree E!rope 'o6p-a"ned that

In /od"1#s "e4, the (!t!re o( the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a "s sa(e"t "s

Bosn"a that 4"-- not -ast0 H"s arro+an'e Q "s an "nternat"ona- @"5e 6eant

to annoy h"s po-"t"'a- partners and (or'e M!s-"6 and Croat -eaders to

as1 (or an ethn"' Fd"or'e#0D

The e((rontery o( p!rs!"n+ the a+enda o( Ban@a L!1a "nstead o(

.ash"n+ton and Br!sse-sJ On'e 'a--ed the 6ost pro6"s"n+ yo!n+

Bosn"an po-"t"'"an o( h"s +enerat"onD 5y R"'hard Ho-5roo1e and a

5reath o( (resh a"rD 5y Made-e"ne A-5r"+ht, he no4 "s deno!n'ed as an

!-tranat"ona-"st0 Ho-5roo1e '-a"6s that /od"1#s a't"ons hae 5een

(!e--ed 5y R!ss"an en'o!ra+e6ent and petrodo--ars0D Ian Traynor o( the

%uardian'a--ed /od"1 the 5"++estD pro5-e6 "n Bosn"a0 V"'e Pres"dentB"den sa"d on 6any o''as"ons /od"1 has not 5een he-p(!-0D

He-p(!- "n adan'"n+ the U0S0 and EU a+enda, that "s0 /od"1

4as s!pposed to sere the "nterests o( the Un"ted States and the

E!ropean !n"on, rather than those o( h"s peop-e0 The pre(eren'es o(

those 4ho e-e'ted /od"1 and other RS o(("'"a-s are "rre-eant0Choos"n+ to represent the6 has earned h"6 !n"(or6 o5-o8!y a5road0

The atta'1s "nd"'ate that .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-s are 4orr"ed0 The

32


33/96

open"n+ sa-o 'a6e "n O'to5er $%%;, 4hen Paddy Ashdo4n and

R"'hard Ho-5roo1e '-a"6ed, "n a @o"nt art"'-e p!5-"shed "n seera-

respe'ted da"-"es on 5oth s"des o( the At-ant"', that the d""s"on o(

Bosn"a that 4as 4ar 'r"6es s!spe't Radoan 3arad"#s drea6 "s

no4 6ore -"1e-y than at any t"6e s"n'e he 5e'a6e a (!+"t"e0D Messrs0

Ashdo4n and Ho-5roo1e (!rther 'ontended that the 'o!ntry "s "n rea-

dan+er o( 'o--apse0D The"r -"1e)6"nded 'o--ea+!es Morton A5ra6o4"t*

and /an"e- Ser4er 4orr"ed a5o!t Bosn"a s-"d"n+ to4ard +reater

"nsta5"-"ty,D 4"th the U0S0 6ost on the s"de-"nes,D een tho!+h

A6er"'a#s 6ass"e "nest6ent "n the re+"on "n the2&&%s 6ay +o the4ay o( the s!5pr"6e 6ar1et0D Re(-e't"n+ s"6"-ar 'on'erns, V"'e

Pres"dent B"den -e't!red h"s 4ay thro!+h the Ba-1ans "n May $%%&0

Th"s 6!st stop,D he to-d the Bosn"an par-"a6ent Yo!r on-y rea- path

to a se'!re and prospero!s (!t!re "s to @o"n E!rope0D The nat"ona-"st

rhetor"' 6!st end as peop-e 4or1 a'ross ethn"' and party -"nes, -est

Bosn"a des'end "nto ethn"' 'haos that de("ned the 'o!ntry (or the

5etter part o( a de'ade0D

Most E!ropeans are not enth!sed a5o!t an atte6pt 5y

.ash"n+ton to se"*e 'ontro- o( Bosn"a#s a+enda, (ear"n+ that the res!-t

4o!-d 5e s-ed+eha66er ta't"'s that 4o!-d destroy Bosn"a0 It "s hard to

see ho4 Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na 'an 4or1 as a rea- 'o!ntry0 Most Croats

and Ser5s (ee- -oya-ty to ne"+h5or"n+ nat"on states do6"nated 5y the"r

o4n ethn"' +ro!ps0 The M!s-"6s hae 5e+!n to e6phas"*e the"r o4n

"dent"ty, 6andat"n+ 3oran -essons "n on'e 6!-t")ethn"' Sara@eo0 .h"-ethe a--"ed o''!pat"on 'o!-d stop 4"despread "o-en'e and 1"--"n+, "t

'o!-d not 1"nd-e 4ar6 (ee-"n+s o( nat"ona- 'o6radesh"p0

There "s no reason (or the U0S0 and E!rope to (or'e Bosn"a to

re6a"n a !n"("ed state0 And 4hateer Bosn"a#s (!t!re, "t "s o( -"tt-e

"nterest to the U0S0 Ea't-y 4hy .ash"n+ton sho!-d 'are a5o!t, -et

a-one "ns"st that Bosn"a#s Croats and Ser5s re6a"n 4"th"n a 'o!ntry

'a--ed Bosn"a has neer 5een ep-a"ned0 I( the E!ropeans 5e-"ee th"s to

5e an "6portant +oa-, then -et the6 p!rs!e 4hat a6o!nts to a 'o-on"a-

33


34/96

pro@e't0 It "s not "n A6er"'a#s "nterest to do so, 4hether 4"th troops,

6oney, or d"p-o6a'y0

Senseless #2S2 Meedlin0 3 .ash"n+ton#s "ns"sten'e on "nteren"n+ so

deep-y "n a re+"on that "s not een o( per"phera- se'!r"ty "nterest to the

Un"ted States neer 6ade sense0 I( anyone had an "nterest "n atte6pt"n+

to 6ana+e Y!+os-a"a#s d"sso-!t"on "t 4as the E!ropean Un"on, and "(

the E!ropeans d"dn#t 5e-"ee that o5@e't"e to 5e 4orth 6"-"tary

"nterent"on, "t 'erta"n-y d"d not 4arrant A6er"'an "no-e6ent0

It a-4ays "s eas"er to +et "nto than o!t o( a +eopo-"t"'a- tar p"t0.ash"n+ton sho!-d etr"'ate "tse-( (ro6 the re+"on, "n"t"a--y 5y 5r"n+"n+

ho6e "ts re6a"n"n+ troops and '!tt"n+ o(( a"d (!nds0 .ash"n+ton

sho!-d 6a1e '-ear that the peop-es o( the Ba-1ans 6!st 'reate the"r o4n

dest"n"es0 It "s not A6er"'a#s p-a'e to "6pose "ts pre(erred ers"on o(

nat"ons, po-"t"es, 'onst"t!t"ons, -a4s, or any other po-"t"'a- or -e+a-

arran+e6ents0 To the etent that o!ts"de po4ers sho!-d 5e "no-ed, "t

"s the E!ropeans0 I( they are so "n'-"ned, -et the6 oersee the Ba-1ans s0

In ret!rn, the U0S0 sho!-d pro6"se not to he'tor or se'ond +!ess the

E!ropeans0

The Ba-1ans "s o( a per"phera- "nterest (or A6er"'a0 The U0S0

no -on+er 'an a((ord to 4aste s!'h e((orts on s!'h (r"o-o!s

'o66"t6ents0 Nor, (ran1-y, 'an the Ba-1ans peop-e a((ord "t any

-on+er0 .h"-e the po-"'"es are (or6!-ated at -"tt-e apparent epense "n

4e--)appo"nted o(("'es 5y 4e--)pa"d o(("'"a-s "n the "6per"a- '"ty o(.ash"n+ton, the h"+h 'osts are pa"d 5y rea- peop-e -""n+ "n rea- to4ns

"n rea- 'o!ntr"es "n the re+"on0

It "s t"6e A6er"'a -e(t the Ba-1ans to the peop-es o( the

Ba-1ans0

34


35/96

A Matter of Princile! Bosnia and the "#

Rona-d L0 Hat'hett2

ne o( the 6ost tro!5-"n+ th"n+s a5o!t the "nternat"ona-

rea't"on to the Ba-1an s"t!at"on s"n'e the 2&&%#s "s the -a'1 o(

'ons"stent pr"n'"p-e "n U0S0 and EU po-"'y to4ards the

re+"on0 .hen Croat"an and S-oen"an nat"ona-"sts !n"-atera--y de'-ared

the"r "ndependen'e (ro6 Y!+os-a"a "n 2&&2, the EU, (o--o4ed 5y the

U0S0, re'o+n"*ed these 6oes as a -e+"t"6ate epress"on o( nat"ona-se-()deter6"nat"on0.hen Bosn"a a-so anno!n'ed "ts !n"-atera-

separat"on (ro6 Y!+os-a"a "n 2&&$, on the 5as"s o( a sta+e)6ana+ed

re(erend!6 4h"'h "o-ated Bosn"a#s o4n 'onst"t!t"on, the EU and U0S0

a+a"n a-"dated the a't"on on the 5as"s o( the r"+ht o( se-()

deter6"nat"on0

O

One 'o!-d 8!est"on 4hether th"s 4as +ood po-"'y, 5!t at -east

the po-"'y appeared to 5e 5ased on a pr"n'"p-e 4h"'h +a"ned

pro6"nen'e as part o( the proposa-s Pres"dent .oodro4 ."-son

adan'ed "n ear-y 2&2; (or shap"n+ a ne4 E!rope "n the eent!a-

a(ter6ath o( the Great .ar0 B!t 4hen Ser5 pop!-at"ons "n Croat"a and

Bosn"a, and Croat"ans "n Bosn"a, tr"ed to assert the pr"n'"p-e o( se-()

deter6"nat"on to 'ontro- the"r o4n dest"n"es "n the rap"d-y sh"(t"n+

2/r0 Rona-d Lester Hat'hett, Co-0 USA Ret0, 4as a sen"or /o/ o(("'"a-!nder Pres"dent Rea+an0 He "s /"re'tor o( the Center (or G-o5a- St!d"es andpro(essor o( "nternat"ona- re-at"ons at S'hre"ner Un"ers"ty "n 3err"--e, Teas0

35


36/96

Ba-1ans po-"t"'a- str!'t!re, the EU and the U0S0 a5r!pt-y rep-a'ed the

pr"n'"p-e o( se-()deter6"nat"on as a +!"de to 5!"-d"n+ a ne4 E!rope

4"th the pr"n'"p-e o( 6!-t")'!-t!ra-"s60 The "dea no4 4as that the

ar"o!s peop-es o( the Ba-1ans sho!-d -"e "n har6ony 4"th"n the

5o!ndar"es o( the ne4-y de'-ared states een tho!+h these 5o!ndar"es

4ere ar5"trar"-y esta5-"shed 5y T"to#s re+"6e0

Th"s pr"n'"p-e re(-e'ted the th"n1"n+ o( the E!roph"-e so'"a-

en+"neers "n Br!sse-s 4ho en"s"on a (!t!re E!ropean "dent"ty that

e'-"pses nat"ona- "dent"ty as E!ropeans# pre)e6"nent se-()"6a+e0 It a-so

4as 'ons"stent 4"th the ne4 4or-d orderD th"n1"n+ o( the G0H0.0

B!sh and C-"nton ad6"n"strat"ons0

The 4"sdo6 o( th"s po-"'y "s not een de5ata5-e "t 'onde6ned

the peop-es o( th"s re+"on to (o!r years o( "nter)ethn"' ("+ht"n+ 4"th

tho!sands 1"--ed or 6a"6ed and een 6ore d"sp-a'ed (ro6 the"r ho6es0

.hen pea'e ("na--y 'a6e "n 2&&


37/96


38/96

A-5an"ans too1 part "n a three)day 4ae o( atta'1s on Ser5s and other

6"nor"t"es, as 4e-- as on Un"ted Nat"ons 5!"-d"n+s and property0

N"neteen peop-e 4ere 1"--ed and 7,%%% 4ere (or'ed (ro6 the"r ho6es0

Add"t"ona- >7 Chr"st"an 'h!r'hes and 6onaster"es, 6any o( the6

'ent!r"es o-d, 4ere destroyed0

/esp"te th"s re'ord o( "o-en'e the EU and U0S0 a'8!"es'ed to a

!n"-atera- A-5an"an de'-arat"on o( "ndependen'e on 2: e5r!ary $%%;

and on 2< =!ne $%%; the EU representat"es "n 3osoo t!rned oer

po4er to a ne4 3osoo)A-5an"an +oern6ent0 The ne4 'o!ntryD "s

hard-y an ea6p-e o( po-"t"'a-, e'ono6"' and so'"a- s!''ess0 A(ter e"+ht

years as an "nternat"ona- prote'torate and 5"--"ons o( do--ars "n a"d, "ts

e'ono6"' prospe'ts are +r"60 Or+an"*ed 'r"6e "s 5"+ 5!s"ness dr!+s,

prost"t!t"on, +!ns0 Non)A-5an"ans hae 5een herded "nto s6a--er and

s6a--er en'-aes0 St"--, EU nat"ons, 4"th the e'ept"on o( Spa"n,

Gree'e, Cypr!s, S-oa1"a, and Ro6an"a, hae re'o+n"*ed the A-5an"an)

'ontro--ed +oern6ent, as has the Un"ted States0 R!ss"a, Ch"na, Ind"a,

and a host o( 'o!ntr"es "n So!th A6er"'a, A(r"'a and As"a hae yet to

do so0 It 4as nat!ra- there(ore (or the Ser5s o( the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a to

4onder "( the 3osoo eents 6eant that there "s a ne4 "nternat"ona-

nor6 "n p-a'e a--o4"n+ the6 to "no1e the se-()deter6"nat"on pr"n'"p-e

to rea-"*e the"r o4n nat"ona- asp"rat"ons0 The ans4er they are +ett"n+ "s

'-ear a5so-!te-y not, the pr"n'"p-e o( 6!-t")'!-t!ra- "n'-!s"eness st"--

app-"es "n Bosn"a and 3osoo0 The ar+!6ent (or th"s po-"'y 6ost o(ten

!sed 5y EU and U0S0 a!thor"t"es "s that Bosn"a and 3osoo 6!ststren+then the"r 6!-t")'!-t!ra- 'ohes"on so that they 'an 6eet the

re8!"re6ents (or 6e65ersh"p "n the EU0

The +enera- re8!"re6ents (or EU 6e65ersh"p are o!t-"ned "n

the so)'a--ed Copenha+en Cr"ter"a, set o!t "n /e'e65er 2&&> 5y the

E!ropean Co!n'"-0 These 'r"ter"a re8!"re a 'and"date 'o!ntry to hae

Sta5-e "nst"t!t"ons that +!arantee de6o'ra'y, the r!-e o( -a4,h!6an r"+hts and respe't (or and prote't"on o( 6"nor"t"es

38


39/96

A (!n't"on"n+ 6ar1et e'ono6y and the a5"-"ty to 'ope 4"th the

press!re o( 'o6pet"t"on and the 6ar1et (or'es at 4or1 "ns"de the Un"on

A5"-"ty to ass!6e the o5-"+at"ons o( 6e65ersh"p, "n part"'!-ar

adheren'e to the o5@e't"es o( po-"t"'a-, e'ono6"' and 6onetary !n"on0

On the (a'e o( "t, Rep!5-"1a Srps1a and Ser5"an 3osoo 6eet

these re8!"re6ents, 5!t Br!sse-s 5!rea!'rats hae 'o6p"-ed pa+es o(

spe'"("' 'han+es they say 6!st 5e 6ade "n the stat!s 8!o 5e(ore

a''ess"on to EU 6e65ersh"p 'an 5e 'ons"dered02The spe'"("'s are -on+

and ard!o!s to read, 5!t the +"st "s s"6p-e a!tono6y o( the ethn"'s!5d""s"ons 6!st 5e +"en !p and po-"t"'a- 'ontro- 'on'entrated "n the

'entra- +oern6ent0 .h"-e EU state6ents on the prospe'ts o( Bosn"a#s

@o"n"n+ the EU '"te e'ono6"' and -e+a- "ss!es that need re(or6, "t "s

'-ear that po-"t"'a- 'han+e "s the rea- pr"'e o( ad6"ss"on0 A6on+ the

h"+hest pr"or"ty 'han+es en"s"oned "n the re(eren'ed do'!6ent are

Ens!re that State)-ee- 6"n"str"es and "nst"t!t"ons are

ade8!ate-y ("nan'ed, operat"ona- and proper-y e8!"pped0

Stren+then ad6"n"strat"e 'apa'"ty o( the 'entra- +oern6ent

"n preparat"on (or "6p-e6ent"n+ Sta5"-"sat"on and Asso'"at"on

A+ree6ent SAA$and Inter"6 A+ree6ent IA 'o66"t6ents0

Ta1e 6eas!res to a'h"ee 6ore (!n't"ona- and s!sta"na5-e

"nst"t!t"ona- str!'t!res and 5etter respe't (or h!6an r"+hts and

1 A 'o6prehens"e s!66ary o( these re8!"re6ents 'an 5e (o!nd "n

$%%;$22EC Co!n'"- /e'"s"on o( 2; e5r!ary $%%; on the pr"n'"p-es,pr"or"t"es and 'ond"t"ons 'onta"ned "n the E!ropean Partnersh"p 4"th Bosn"aand Her*e+o"na and repea-"n+ /e'"s"on $%%?


40/96

(!nda6enta- (reedo6s, "n'-!d"n+ 5y a+ree"n+ and adopt"n+ 'han+es to

the 'onst"t!t"on o( Bosn"a and Her*e+o"na, as ne'essary0

An SAA 5et4een the EU and the Bosn"an 'entra- +oern6ent

4as "n"t"a-ed on 7 /e'e65er $%%: and s"+ned on 2? =!ne $%%;0 The

'entra- +oern6ent (ore"+n 6"n"ster says h"s +oern6ent 4"-- s!56"t

an app-"'at"on (or EU 6e65ersh"p 5et4een Apr"- and =!ne $%%&0 S"n'e

the s"+n"n+ o( the SAA, those 4ho 4o!-d -"1e to p!t an end to the

a!tono6y o( Ser5"an areas hae 6o!nted an eer "ntens"(y"n+ 'hor!s

'a--"n+ (or an end to the '!rrent 'on(ederat"on arran+e6ents and (or a

6ore a't"e U0S0 and EU ro-e "n 6a1"n+ th"s happen0

A str"dent o"'e "n th"s 'hor!s "s that o( Paddy Ashdo4n, the

"nternat"ona- H"+h Representat"e to Bosn"a and Her*e+o"na "n $%%$)

$%%?0 On ? Apr"- $%%& he to-d the U0S0 Co66"ss"on on Se'!r"ty and

Cooperat"on "n E!rope 1no4n as the U0S0 He-s"n1" Co66"ss"on that

the U0S0 6!st 4or1 4"th the EU to 6oe Bosn"a and Her*e+o"na

to4ards a pos"t"on not @!st o( sta5"-"ty 5!t a-so (!n't"ona-"ty as a stateD

The pro+ress o( (or4ard 6oe6ent o( Bosn"a andHer*e+o"na to4ards a pos"t"on not @!st o( sta5"-"ty 5!t a-so(!n't"ona-"ty as a state has no4 6oed s!5stant"a--y "ntoreerse0 There are e-e6ents -ar+e-y "n the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a 4ho 4o!-d 4"sh to een !ndo the re(or6s to4ard statehoodthat hae a-ready 5een esta5-"shed0 And "ndeed, they hae

5een a--o4ed to do soQ Be-+rade sho!-d 5e to-d that "( "t 4antsto pro'eed to4ard EU 6e65ersh"p, "t 6!st Fa't"e-y s!pport#the EU)U0S0 po-"'y "n Bosn"a 5y te--"n+ the +oern6ent "nRep!5-"1a Srps1a that the 8!est"on o( se'ess"on F4"-- not eer

5e on the ta5-e0#

So6e p-ayers 4"th"n the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on are 5eat"n+ the

re(or6 dr!6 too0 R"'hard Ho-5roo1e, '!rrent-y Spe'"a- Representat"e

(or A(+han"stan and Pa1"stan, 4as the -ead representat"e (or the

C-"nton ad6"n"strat"on "n the Ba-1ans0 In O'to5er $%%; he 'o)4rote an

op"n"on p"e'e "n the London 8aily 'elegraph 'a--"n+ (or a ne4transat-ant"' po-"'y, 5a'1ed 5y .ash"n+ton#s (!-- en+a+e6ent and

40


41/96

stron+ EU 'ond"t"ona-"ty, 4h"'h 'an -ead to deeper and 5roader

"nternat"ona- "no-e6ent "n Bosn"a0D V"'e Pres"dent =oe B"den and

Se'retary o( State H"-ary C-"nton a-so hae a -on+ and d"st"n+!"shed

re'ord, dat"n+ (ro6 the 2&&%#s, s!pport"n+ M!s-"6 s"des "n Bosn"a)

Her*e+o"na and 3osoo0

On h"s May $%%& "s"t to Bosn"a, V"'e Pres"dent B"den to-d the

Sara@eo par-"a6ent that 6a1"n+ the r"+ht 'ho"'e (or the (!t!re o( the

peop-e o( Bosn"a 6eans that the -eaders o( th"s 'o!ntry 6!st stop the

p!rs!"t o( narro4 ethn"' and po-"t"'a- "nterests "nstead o( the nat"ona-

"nterest0D o--o4"n+ B"den#s re6ar1s, "n an "nter"e4 4"th Rad"o ree

E!rope, M!s-"6 Pres"den'y representat"e Har"s S"-a@d" 6ade '-ear

the 6essa+e he heard .e need to start 4"th re(or6s "66ed"ate-y and

'-ear-y po"nt to those 4ho are 5-o'1"n+ the60D The 1"nd o( re(or6s he

has "n 6"nd 4ere reea-ed "n an ear-"er "nter"e4 4"th the BBCO!r'onst"t!t"ona- arran+e6ent "s s!'h that a't!a--y "t re4ards the

a++ress"on and +eno'"de and ethn"' '-eans"n+ and so on0D

99C: Are yo! say"n+ that (or yo! the po-"t"'a- (!t!re (orBosn"a has to rest !pon e-"6"nat"n+ the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a,'reated !nder /ayton That "s, the a!tono6o!s Ser5 re+"on"ns"de Bosn"a

Silad;i


42/96

+ro!ps0 A FE!rope o( the Re+"ons# 5e'a6e a ra--y"n+ 'ry d!r"n+ the

2&&%s (or "nterest +ro!ps 'o66"tted to 6ore part"'"pat"e and 6ore

de'entra-"*ed (or6s o( +oernan'e0

The 'on'ept "s o( a E!rope "n 4h"'h the po4ers o( the nat"on

state are s!pposed-y seep"n+ a4ay "n t4o d"re't"ons !p4ards to

Br!sse-s as a res!-t o( a pro'ess o( eer)'-oser "nte+rat"on and

do4n4ards to the re+"ons as a res!-t o( the +ro4"n+ trend to4ards

deo-!t"on0 Spa"n, the Un"ted 3"n+do6, and Be-+"!6 are a6on+ those

a't"e "n trans(err"n+ po4er (ro6 the 'enter to ethn"' re+"ons0

The se'ond art"'-e o( Spa"n#s 'onst"t!t"on o( 2&:& re'o+n"*es

the r"+hts o( re+"ons andnat"ona-"t"esD to se-()+oern6ent0 Spa"n "s

d""ded "nto 2: a!tono6o!s 'o66!n"t"es,D ea'h 4"th "ts o4n e-e'ted

par-"a6ent and +oern6ent0 Oer the past >% years 6ore and 6ore

po4ers and 6oney hae 5een deo-ed0 The re+"ona- +oern6ents are

no4 respons"5-e (or s'hoo-s, !n"ers"t"es, hea-th, so'"a- ser"'es,

'!-t!re, !r5an and r!ra- dee-op6ent and, "n so6e p-a'es, po-"'"n+ and

een (ore"+n po-"'y0 Cata-an and Bas8!e terr"tor"es and pop!-at"on hae

5een des"+nated nat"ons0D These nat"ons hae the"r o4n po-"'e (or'e

and 'o--e't the"r o4n taes, -ess than 2% per'ent o( 4h"'h "s handed

oer to the 'entra- +oern6ent "n Madr"d0

/eo-!t"on "s a-so 4e-- !nder4ay "n the U30 The FNe4

La5o!r# +oern6ent, (or6ed 5y Pr"6e M"n"ster Tony B-a"r "n 2&&:,

5e+an a pro'ess o( trans(err"n+ 'erta"n +oern"n+ po4ers to S'ot-and,Northern Ire-and and .a-es0 Thro!+h the pro"s"ons o!t-"ned "n three

1ey p"e'es o( -e+"s-at"on, The S'ot-and A't 2&&;, The Goern6ent o(

.a-es A't 2&&;,andThe Northern Ire-and A't 2&&;, d"((er"n+ de+rees

o( ho6e)r!-e 4ere de("ned (or ea'h re+"on0 B!t ea'h o( these three

d"st"n't ethn"' re+"ons no4 has a +oern6ent 4"th -e+"s-at"e and

ee'!t"e 5ran'hes and respons"5"-"ty (or ed!'at"on, -o'a- +oern6ent,

ho!s"n+, to!r"s6, '""- and 'r"6"na- -a4, e6er+en'y ser"'es, e'ono6"'dee-op6ent, a+r"'!-t!re, and sports0 Matters resered to the U030

+oern6ent "n London "n'-!de (ore"+n po-"'y, nat"ona- se'!r"ty, ("s'a-

42
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_regions_of_Spainhttp://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/19980046.htmhttp://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/19980038.htmhttp://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/19980038.htmhttp://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/19980047.htmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_regions_of_Spainhttp://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/19980046.htmhttp://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/19980038.htmhttp://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/19980038.htmhttp://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/19980047.htm


43/96

po-"'y, "nternat"ona- trade po-"'y, n!'-ear sa(ety, 'erta"n areas o( so'"a-

se'!r"ty and e6p-oy6ent po-"'y, and 'erta"n areas o( hea-th po-"'y0

/eo-!t"on "n Be-+"!6 has a-6ost rea'hed the po"nt o(

d"sso-!t"on o( the state0 Unt"- the 2&?%s, the 'o!ntry had a s"n+-e

+oern6ent (or the 4ho-e 'o!ntry0 B!t oer the past (o!r de'ades, a

ser"es o( 'onst"t!t"ona- re(or6s hae deo-ed eer 6ore po4ers to

ethn"' +ro!ps and re+"ons0 Be-+"!6#s !n"8!e deo-!t"on re(or6s sp-"t

the 'o!ntry three 4ays t4"'e0 In the 2&:%s, 'o66!n"t"esD 4ere set

!p on the 5as"s o( -an+!a+e and '!-t!re0 They represent the /!t'h)

spea1ers, ren'h)spea1ers, and the s6a-- Ger6an)spea1"n+ pop!-at"on0

Then, "n the -ate 2&:%s and 2&;%s, three +eo+raph"'a- re+"ons 4ere

'reated -anders to the north, .a--on"a to the so!th, and the 'ap"ta-,

Br!sse-s0 Today Be-+"!6 and "ts 'onst"t!ent parts hae a tota- o( s"

+oern6ents, ea'h 4"th "ts o4n par-"a6ent and 'a5"net 6"n"sters0 The

re+"ona- and 'o66!n"ty +oern6ents hae 4"de ran+"n+ po4ers oer

s!'h th"n+s as the e'ono6y, e6p-oy6ent, a+r"'!-t!re, 4ater po-"'y,

ho!s"n+, p!5-"' 4or1s, ener+y, transport, the en"ron6ent, to4n and

'o!ntry p-ann"n+, nat!re 'onserat"on, 'red"t, and (ore"+n trade0

Another 6a@or "n'ons"sten'y "n the "dea that a''ess"on to the

EU 'an on-y 5e had 5y states 4h"'h hae reso-ed a-- ethn"' d""s"ons

"s the (a't that Cypr!s 4as ad6"tted to the EU "n $%%70 The northern

th"rd o( the "s-and has 6ade !n"-atera- de'-arat"on o( "ndependen'e as

T!r1"sh Rep!5-"' o( Northern Cypr!s, separate (ro6 the +oern6ent

re'o+n"*ed 5y the EU0 It has hosted a 6"-"tary (or'e (ro6 T!r1ey s"n'e

2&:70 B!t a''ord"n+ to the /"re'torate)Genera- (or En-ar+e6ent o( the

E!ropean Co66"ss"on, the 4ho-e o( the "s-and "s "n the EU, een

tho!+h "n the northern part o( the "s-and, "n the areas "n 4h"'h the

Goern6ent o( Cypr!s does not eer'"se e((e't"e 'ontro-, EU

-e+"s-at"on "s s!spended "n -"ne 4"th Proto'o- 2% o( the $%%> A''ess"on

Treaty0 The s"t!at"on 4"-- s!pposed-y 'han+e on'e a Cypr!s sett-e6ent

enters "nto (or'e,

43


44/96

and "t 4"-- then 5e poss"5-e (or EU r!-es to app-y oer the4ho-e o( the "s-and0 Ho4eer, the s!spens"on does not a((e't

the persona- r"+hts o( T!r1"sh Cypr"ots as EU '"t"*ens0 Theyare '"t"*ens o( a Me65er State, the Rep!5-"' o( Cypr!s, eentho!+h they 6ay -"e "n the northern part o( Cypr!s, the areasnot !nder +oern6ent 'ontro-0

The E!ropean Co66"ss"on a-so s!per"ses an a"d pro+ra6 (or

northern Cyr!s (or the 5ene("t o( the T!r1"sh Cypr"ot 'o66!n"ty

a"6ed at p!tt"n+ an end to the "so-at"on o( th"s 'o66!n"ty and he-p"n+

prepare (or the re!n"("'at"on o( the "s-and0D

Then there "s the eper"en'e o( the C*e'hs and S-oa1s0 These

t4o 'onst"t!ent nat"ons o( the no4)de(!n't state o( C*e'hos-oa1"a

de'"ded to part 4ays three years a(ter the (a-- o( the a!thor"tar"an

'o66!n"st +oern6ent0 It too1 a 6ere s" 6onths to sp-"t the :7)year)

o-d d!a- (ederat"on a(ter the =!ne 2&&$ e-e't"ons0 As se'ess"on"st 4ars

ra+ed "n Y!+os-a"a, C*e'hs and S-oa1s pea'e(!--y a+reed to sp-"t

the"r 'o!ntryWs assets and -"a5"-"t"es, shoo1 hands and 4ent separate4ays0 Both 'o!ntr"es are no4 6e65ers o( the E!ropean Un"on0

Co!-d not the sa6e pr"n'"p-e 5e app-"ed to the Rep!5-"1a

Srps1a "s)X)"s Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na I( the EU and the U0S0 epe't to

5e respe'ted as the -eaders o( the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty,D sett"n+

and en(or'"n+ nor6s o( 5eha"or, then they 6!st 5ase the"r po-"'"es on

re'o+n"*a5-e pr"n'"p-es0 These pr"n'"p-es sho!-d 5e app-"ed 'ons"stent-y

"n eery s"t!at"on and to4ards eery peop-e0 Th"s has not 5een the 'ase"n the Ba-1ans0 .h"-e atte6pt"n+ to dep"'t "ts a't"ons as 6ot"ated 5y

h"+h 6ora- standards, the po-"'y o( the EU and U0S0 "n (a't has 5o!n'ed

(ro6 one pr"n'"p-e to another, 4hateer "s ne'essary to @!st"(y the

o!t'o6e des"red0

The on-y rea- pr"n'"p-e apparent "n EU and U0S0 Ba-1an po-"'y

oer the past t4o de'ades see6s to 5e, It#s o!r po-"'y and 4e -"1e "t0D

44


45/96

A$erica%s Last Balkan Advent&re

=a6es Geor+e =atras

s has 5e'o6e pa"n(!--y o5"o!s, persona+es (ro6 the B"--

C-"nton Ad6"n"strat"on, ha"n+ ret!rned to po4er !nder

Bara'1 O5a6a, hae 6ade "t a pr"or"ty to reener+"*eD U0S0

po-"'y "n the Ba-1ans0 The 'onto!rs o( the"r e((ort are '-ear thrott-e the

Rep!5-"1a Srps1a !nder the +!"se o( 6o"n+ the /ayton pro'essD

(or4ard and se'!re +reater "nternat"ona- s!pport (or the pse!do)statede'reed 5y .ash"n+ton and "ts han+ers)on "n 3osoo0 Both 'an 5e

s!66ed !p (!rther as anta+on"s6 to4ard the 4e--)5e"n+ o( Ser5"a as a

state, re+ard-ess o( "ts '!rrent pro).esternD 'oa-"t"on, and to4ard

Ser5s "n the re+"on as a 4ho-e0

A

The passa+e o( Ho!se Reso-!t"on 2:2 on May 2$, $%%&, 'an 5e

ta1en as a 6an"(esto o( the "n"t"at"e0 The prod!'t o( 5eh"nd)doors

'o--a5orat"on a6on+ 'o66"ttee sta((ers, ad6"n"strat"on o(("'"a-s, th"n1

tan1 eperts,D and pro)M!s-"6 a't""sts, "t 4as approed "n the

Co66"ttee on ore"+n A((a"rs 5y !nan"6o!s 'onsent "0e0 4"tho!t a

(or6a- ote and adopted on the (-oor 5y o"'e ote0 The r!55er)

sta6ped reso-!t"on 5y the E-e'ted Representat"es o( the Peop-e

5e'o6es part o( the po-"'y)6a1"n+D pro'ess "n 4h"'h the U0S0

'o66"ts "tse-( to (!rther pro+ressD "n the Ba-1ans0 B!t s!'h po-"t"'a-

theatre sho!-d not 5e sneered at the proponents o( A6er"'an re)"nterent"on th"n1 s!'h sha6s are a ne'essary part o( the"r a+enda,

a-on+ 4"th or'hestrated op)eds, Fana-yses# (ro6 th"n1 tan1s, and a-- the

45


46/96

rest o( the 'ontr"ed 'a6pa"+n0 The C-"nton retreads and the"r

no6"na--y Rep!5-"'an neo'onserat"e a--"es 5e-"ee they need s!'h

6a'h"nat"ons "n order to 'a@o-e the E!ropeans "nto yet one 6ore Ba-1an

5-!nder and to ro-- the R!ss"ans0

The rea- p!rpose "s not hard to d"s'ern0 "rst, the /e6o'rats

4ant to po"nt to the"r Ba-1an s!''essD o( the 2&&%s "n 'ontrast to GOP

(a"-!reD "n Ira80 Not 6ent"oned "s that the Rep!5-"'an neo'ons 4ho

(athered the Ira8 4ar are pre'"se-y the 4"n+ o( the GOP that s!pported

B"-- C-"nton "n h"s Ba-1an a++ress"on nor that 6ost o( the /e6o'rat"'

Ba-1ans ha41s no4 4"sh"n+ to p"-e s!''ess on s!''ess 4ere

the6se-es ear-y s!pporters o( Geor+e .0 B!sh#s Ira8 4ar0 As d"d the"r

prede'essors "n V"etna6, they on-y t!rned a+a"nst the 4ar 4hen "t

5e+an to 5e po-"t"'a--y "n'onen"ent0

Se'ond, as 4as the 'ase "n the per"od -ead"n+ !p to the B!sh

Ad6"n"strat"on#s p!sh (or the 3osoo)A-5an"ans# U/I, a 6a@or (a'tor

"s the 'h"6era o( +arner"n+ the +ood4"-- o( the Is-a6"' 4or-d thro!+h

.ash"n+ton#s tr!6pet"n+ "ts s!pport (or M!s-"6s "n Bosn"a and

3osoo0 A-- th"s pander"n+ has res!-ted "n a5so-!te-y no e"den'e o(

s!''ess0 In the M!s-"6 6"nd 4hat "s re+"stered "s not that the U0S0

he-ps M!s-"6sD 5!t that the U0S0 stood "d-y 5y (or too -on+ as

M!s-"6s 4ere "'t"6"*ed0D Th"s sense o( +r"ean'e 4as or"+"na--y

6an!(a't!red 5y the ery proponents o( M!s-"6 "nterests "n the

Ba-1ans 4ho the6se-es no4 a"n-y see1 to 'ap"ta-"*e on "t0 One 'o!-d

hard-y ("nd a 5etter ea6p-e o( the .ash"n+ton 5"part"san

esta5-"sh6ent#s !tter "n'o6prehens"on o( the 6ot"es, 6"ndset and

6ethodo-o+"es o( the +-o5a- @"had"st 6oe6ent0

The Ba-1an re"n"+orat"on 'a6pa"+n (a'es t4o o5sta'-es0 "rst

"s the E!ropean a--"es0 .h"-e no one 4o!-d eer a''!se the E!ropeans

o( ha"n+ 'o!ra+e 4hen "t 'o6es to stand"n+ !p to the Un"ted States,

there 6ay 5e a -"6"t to the"r pat"en'e0 O5a6a "s st"-- en@oy"n+ aprotra'ted honey6oon 4"th the E!ropeans0 It 4o!-d 5e hard to

oerest"6ate the"r re-"e( that they hae seen the -ast o( the desp"sed

46


47/96

Geor+e .0 B!sh and 4hat they re+ard as the "6per"o!s, d"'tator"a-

sty-e o( h"s ad6"n"strat"on0 Ho4 soon they (or+et that the sty-e

or"+"nated not 4"th Cheney and R!6s(e-d 5!t 4"th A-5r"+ht and

Ho-5roo1e, and "ndeed "n the ery Ba-1ans to 4h"'h these 4orth"es

see1 to ret!rn 4"th the"r d!5"o!s ta-ents0 .hen, as see6s -"1e-y, they

reen+a+e 4"th the sa6e so(t to!'h they !sed 5e(ore, the E!ropeans

6"+ht 5e head"n+ (or d"or'e 'o!rt sooner than ant"'"pated0

Ideo-o+y and e+o6an"a are a6on+ the +reat 5-"nders to rea-"ty,

and the re'y'-ed C-"nton"stas are +reat ee6p-ars o( 5oth0 As 'r"6"na-s

ret!rn"n+ to the s'ene o( the 'r"6e, they 5e-"ee they 'an 5!--y and

5-!ster the"r 4ay (or4ard as they d"d oer a de'ade a+o0 L""n+ "n a

2&&%s t"6e 4arp they see6 not to not"'e that the 4or-d has 'han+ed

s"n'e they -ast he-d the -eers o( state po4er0

The Un"ted States "s (ar 4ea1er than "t 4as "n the"r +-ory days,

and re-at"e-y spea1"n+ R!ss"a, Ch"na, and Ind"a are (ar stron+er0 Apart

(ro6 "ts e'ono6"' 4oes, the Un"ted States ("nds "tse-( "n t4o "ntra'ta5-e

4ars0 ."th re+ard to Ira8, O5a6a "s 5a'1peda-"n+ on h"s ear-"er p-ed+e

o( an ear-y 4"thdra4a-0 In A(+han"stan he "nd"'ates a 5!--)headed

deter6"nat"on to es'a-ate the 4ar there0 Loo1"n+ to 6a1e the

A(+han"stan 4ar h"s o4n, as N"on d"d the one "n V"etna6, he has sent

as spe'"a- enoy to the A(+han)Pa1"stan 8!a+6"re none other than

R"'hard Ho-5roo1e, o( Ba-1an "n(a6y0 I( h"s ear-"er tra'1 re'ord "s any

"nd"'at"on, 4e 'an -oo1 (or4ard "n the near ter6 to the 'o--apse o( the

perenn"a--y dys(!n't"ona- Pa1"stan 4"th the o5"o!s-y 'atastroph"'

'onse8!en'es0 That poss"5"-"ty "s not -ost on the E!ropeans, 4ho 4"--

dra+ the"r (eet on (!rther 'o66"t6ent o( so-d"ers and 6ater"a- to the

NATO 6"ss"on "n the H"nd! 3!sh as do++ed-y as they d"d d!r"n+ the

pre'ed"n+ ad6"n"strat"on0 In add"t"on, "t see6s there "s no end o(

d"(("'!-t"es 'on(ront"n+ the ne4 ad6"n"strat"on, 4hether (ro6 the

"n'reas"n+-y errat"' 3"6 =on+)I- to the poss"5"-"ty that Israe- 6"+ht

-a!n'h a str"1e on Iran#s n!'-ear (a'"-"t"es0

47


48/96

The 'r!'"a- -"n1, as a-4ays, "s 4hat 1"nd o( -eadersh"p "s

'o6"n+ (ro6 the Ser5"an s"de0 In th"s respe't Rep!5-"1a Srps1a "s "n (ar

5etter shape than Ser5"a "tse-(0 Pr"6e M"n"ster M"-orad /od"1 has

5e'o6e the nat"ona-"stD -"+htn"n+ rod (or eery s-ander, persona- or

po-"t"'a-, h!6an 6a-"'e 'an drea6 !p0

Bo-stered 5y an !npre'edented -ee- o( pop!-ar s!pport (or a

post)/ayton Bosn"an Ser5 -eader, /od"1 has to date stared do4n eery

e((ort to !nder6"ne Rep!5-"1a Srps1a#s stat!s !nder /ayton0 Co!p-ed

4"th a -ee- o( e'ono6"' a't""ty that o!tpa'es not on-y the 6or"5!nd

M!s-"6)Croat ederat"on 5!t ne"+h5or"n+ Croat"a and Ser5"a, /od"1

'an a''!rate-y '-a"6 that h"s state "s an "s-and o( re-at"e sta5"-"ty "n the

re+"on0 H"s stan'e, 'o!p-ed 4"th A6er"'an o5str!'t"on o( hand"n+ (!--

a!thor"ty (ro6 the h!+e po4ers o( the O(("'e o( the H"+h

Representat"e to the re-at"e-y 4ea1 EU Spe'"a- Representat"e, +"es

E!ropeans (!rther reason to as1 4hy they sho!-d !pset /ayton#s

de-"'ate 5a-an'e o( e8!a- d"ssat"s(a't"on to p-ease the Boo6eran+

Generat"on (ro6 the 2&&%s0

.hat 4e are -e(t 4"th "s that the O5a6a Ad6"n"strat"on and "ts

(e--o4)trae-ers, "n 5oth part"es, has a s!r(e"t o( epertsD and

a't""stsD "t'h"n+ to 1"'1 oer the app-e'art "n the Ba-1ans 5!t a dearth

o( opt"ons as to ho4 to do so0 In the dy"n+ days o( the A6er"'an

hyperpo4er,D re-at"e 4ea1ness 6ay 5e the 5est 6eans (or an "n(!s"on

o( san"ty "nto o!r oeretended and 6"sd"re'ted (ore"+n po-"'y0

No do!5t, there are dan+ero!s days ahead as 4e 4a"t (or rea-"ty

to s"n1 "nto een the s6a--est 6"nds "n .ash"n+ton, as "t "ne"ta5-y

6!st0 Unt"- that happens a -ot o( da6a+e 6"+ht st"-- 5e done, and not

@!st "n the Ba-1ans0 B!t "n any 'ase, the po4er '!re "s a+a"nst the

s!''ess o( the e((ort at reen+a+e6ent, 4h"'h has at 6ost a5o!t t4o

years, perhaps (ar -ess, to a'h"ee "ts o5@e't"es0 Let !s hope that 4"--

5e the end o( A6er"'a#s "--)(ated and destr!'t"e Ba-1an adent!res0

48


49/96

Fo&rth 'eneration (ar and Balkan Folly

."--"a6 S0 L"nd2

6on+ the r!6ors h"stor"ans -east -"1e hear"n+ are s!++est"ons

that o!ts"de Po4ers "ntend on'e a+a"n to 6edd-e "n the

Ba-1ans0 S!'h "nterent"on se-do6 atta"ns "ts o5@e't"es, and

too o(ten "t has proen se-()de(eat"n+, as Otto6ans and Haps5!r+s 'an

a-"1e attest0 It has 5een sa"d that the Ba-1ans tend to prod!'e 6ore

h"story than they 'an 'ons!6e -o'a--y0 The 'onse8!en'es o( eents "nthe Ba-1ans, espe'"a--y 4hen those eents "no-e o!ts"de po4ers, hae

o(ten etended (ar 5eyond the re+"on0 The death o( the .est "n the

'""-"*at"ona- 'atastrophe 4e 1no4 as .or-d .ar I 5e+an "n the

Ba-1ans, not on-y "66ed"ate-y 4"th the assass"nat"on o( Ar'hd!1e

ran'"s erd"nand "n Sara@eo 5!t a-so "n -ar+er or"+"ns, espe'"a--y "n

the Bosn"an Anneat"on Cr"s"s o( 2&%;0

A

Re+retta5-y, Se'retary o( State H"--ary C-"nton 4ants to rene4

her h!s5and#s ad6"n"strat"on#s assa!-t on the Ser5s, th"s t"6e !nder the

-a5e- o( an !n("n"shed 5!s"ness "n the Ba-1ans0D or reasons that are

d"(("'!-t to 'o6prehend, the C-"ntons apparent-y re+ard the ("as'o o(

the"r Ba-1an 4ars "n the 2&&%s as a s!''ess0 Its pr"n'"pa- strate+"' res!-t

4as to po"son A6er"'an)R!ss"an re-at"ons, 4"th !n(ort!nate

1."--"a6 S0 L"nd "s the -ead"n+ a!thor"ty on o!rth Generat"on .ar(are, a

pro-"("' a!thor, and /"re'tor o( the Center (or C!-t!ra- Conserat"s6 at theree Con+ress o!ndat"on

49


50/96

'onse8!en'es (ro6 4h"'h A6er"'an "nterests st"-- s!((er0 Lo'a--y, "t

prote'ted one E!ropean 5ase (or Is-a6"' @"had"s, Bosn"a, and 'reated

another, 3osoo0 I( that "s 4hat the C-"ntons re+ard as s!''ess, "t "s

d"(("'!-t toep-a"n 4hy U0S0 troops are ("+ht"n+ s!'h @"had"s "n Ira8 and

A(+han"stan0

The t4"n o5@e't"es o( a rene4ed A6er"'an en+a+e6entD are

to e-"6"nate Rep!5-"1a Srps1a, or red!'e "t to an e6pty she-- deo"d o(

'onst"t!t"ona- prero+at"es, and to 'o6pe- Be-+rade to reno!n'e a--

Ser5"an '-a"6s to 3osoo and '!t o(( t"es 4"th the re6a"n"n+ Ser5s "n

the pro"n'e0 Ea't-y 4hy the Un"ted States 4o!-d 4"sh to en+a+e "n

s!'h an enterpr"se "n the Ba-1ans 4hen "t has "ts hands 6ore than (!--

4"th !ns!''ess(!- 4ars "n Ira8 and A(+han"stan "s d"(("'!-t to say0

The rea-"ty o( oeretens"on "s so o5"o!s one 6ay dare hope

that 4"ser 6"nds "n the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on 6ay s'ot'h any s!'h

p-ans0 Nonethe-ess, "t "s !se(!- to 'ons"der @!st ho4 5ad-y a rene4ed

A6er"'an en+a+e6entD 4o!-d 5e -"1e-y to h!rt A6er"'a and sere "ts

ene6"es0 Conent"ona- strate+"' ana-ys"s 6a1es the po"nt '-ear-y

eno!+h

) A6er"'a#s re-at"ons 4"th R!ss"a 4o!-d ta1e another 5-o4, @!st

as U0S0 and NATO (or'es "n A(+han"stan ("nd they need a-ternate -"ne

o( s!pp-y thro!+h R!ss"a0

) NATO, a-ready stra"ned 5y the A(+han 'on(-"'t, 4o!-d s!((er

(!rther "nterna- d""s"on not a-- NATO 'o!ntr"es share the C-"ntons#

enth!s"as6 (or 6a1"n+ E!rope sa(e (or @"had0

Conse8!en'es "n the Ba-1ans are pred"'ta5-e, and +reater

"nsta5"-"ty "s a-6ost 'erta"n-y one o( the60 .ash"n+ton 'o!-d (a'e yet

another theater de6and"n+ A6er"'an 'o66"t6ent, at a t"6e 4hen 4e

hae no (or'es to spare0

A-- o( these 'onse8!en'es and 6ore 4o!-d (o--o4 (ro6 a't"ons"n a re+"on 4here the Un"ted States has essent"a--y no "nterests0 .e

4o!-d (a'e, "( not a 4ar o( 'ho"'eD -"1e B!sh#s Ira8 adent!re, at -east

50


51/96

a ("rst '-ass 6ess o( 'ho"'e0 In ter6s o( ser"n+ A6er"'an "nterests, 4e

4o!-d do as 4e-- to "nterene a6on+ the pen+!"ns o( Antar't"'a0

To !nderstand "n (!-- 4hy re)en+a+"n+ A6er"'a "n the Ba-1ans

"s (o--y, 4e need to -oo1 5eyond the (ra6e4or1 o( trad"t"ona-

d"p-o6a'y and strate+"' ana-ys"s0 In the $2st 'ent!ry, any ana-ys"s o(

prospe't"e a't"ons on the 4or-d sta+e sho!-d 'ons"der a ne4 (a'tor

o!rth Generat"on 4ar02

S"n'e the Pea'e o( .estpha-"a "n 2?7;, states, at ("rst "n E!rope

and s!5se8!ent-y thro!+ho!t the 4or-d, hae 5ased the"r a't"ons on anass!6pt"on that on-y states 4ere a'tors0 The state syste6 had a

6onopo-y, and 4"th the e'ept"on o( an o''as"ona- s6a-- 4arD 4"th

'o-on"a- nat"es, 4hose o!t'o6e 4as pre)deter6"ned, a-- (ore"+n po-"'y

and 'onse8!ent 6"-"tary a't"on 4as 'ond!'ted 4"th"n that 6onopo-y0

That ass!6pt"on no -on+er ho-ds0 ."th"n the -ast seera- de'ades, the

state syste6 has 5e+!n to 5rea1 do4n0

.ar has es'aped the state#s 6onopo-y esta5-"shed 5y.estpha-"a0 .hat so6e 6"-"tary theor"sts 'a-- o!rth Generat"on 4ar,

the (o!rth d"a-e't"'a--y 8!a-"tat"e 'han+e "n the 'ond!'t o( 4ar "n the

6odern per"od "0e0, s"n'e 2?7;, "n'reas"n+-y (a'es states 4"th non)

state opponents, More, !n-"1e 2&th 'ent!ry 'o-on"a- 'on(-"'ts, the

o!t'o6e "s not pre)deter6"ned "n (aor o( the state0 On the 'ontrary, "n

6ost s!'h 'on(-"'ts aro!nd the 4or-d today, "n'-!d"n+ those "n Ira8 and

A(+han"stan, the state "s -os"n+0 In the (a'e o( 7G., the 6ost "ta-"nterest o( a-- states "n'-!d"n+ the U0S0 "s preser"n+ the state

syste60 A't"ons s!'h as A6er"'aWs "nas"on and o''!pat"on o( Ira8,

4h"'h destroy a state and rep-a'e "t 4"th an area o( state-ess 'haos, are

(!nda6enta--y "n"6"'a- to a-- states0

1

Th"s 'on'ept 4as ("rst des'r"5ed "n an art"'-e "n the O'to5er, 2&;& >arineCorps %a=ette, The Chan+"n+ a'e o( .ar Into the o!rth Generat"on 5y.0S0 L"nd, Co-0 30 N"+hten+a-e USA, Capt0 =00 S'h6"tt USMC, Co-0 =0.0S!tton USA and Lt0 Co-0 G0I0 ."-son, USMC0

51


52/96

Any prospe't"e a't"on, s!'h as a rene4a- o( A6er"'a#s

'r!sade a+a"nst the Ser5s, 6!st 5e ea-!ated ("rst and (ore6ost (ro6

th"s prospe't"e0 The 'entra- 8!est"on 6!st 5e, 4"-- the a't"on

stren+then or 4ea1en the states "no-ed and, 4"th the6, the state

syste6 "tse-(

The start"n+ po"nt (or s!'h an ana-ys"s "s the 8!est"on o(

-e+"t"6a'y0 The or"+"n o( o!rth Generat"on 4ar "s a +enera-"*ed 'r"s"s

o( the -e+"t"6a'y o( the state0 That 'r"s"s ar"es +reat-y "n "ntens"ty,(ro6 p-a'es s!'h as So6a-"a 4here testate has an"shed to 6!'h o(

A(r"'a 4here the state "s a po-"te ("'t"on to p-a'es s!'h as S4"t*er-and

and 6ost 6onar'h"es 4here the -e+"t"6a'y o( the state trans'ends the

de)-e+"t"6"*"n+ (o--"es o( the po-"t"'a- '-ass0 B!t th"s ar"at"on sho!-d

not o5s'!re the 5as"' (a't a-6ost eery4here, the state (a'es 'r"s"s o(

-e+"t"6a'y o( +reater or -esser "ntens"ty0

The or"+"n o( the 'r"s"s "s that 6ost state +oern6ents no

-on+er represent the "nterests o( the state#s peop-e0 Instead they

represent the "nterest o( a Ne4 C-ass, a +-o5a-"st e-"te that has 6ore "n

'o66on 4"th "ts 'o!nterparts "n other states than 4"th "ts o4n state#s

pop!-at"on0 In +enera-, the Ne4 C-ass has three 'hara'ter"st"'s "t

'annot 6a1e th"n+s 4or1 'ons"der the '!rrent 4or-d)4"de e'ono6"'

'r"s"s, "t !ses "tspos"t"on and pr""-e+e to ee6pt "tse-( (ro6 the

'onse8!en'es o( th"n+s not 4or1"n+ .a-- Street +ets 5a"-ed o!t 5!t not

Ma"n Street, and "t 'ares a5o!t on-y one th"n+, re6a"n"n+ the Ne4

C-ass0

a'ed 4"th the 'orr!pt"on o( the state, 6ore and 6ore peop-e

4or-d)4"de are trans(err"n+ the"r pr"6ary -oya-ty a4ay (ro6 the state0

They are +""n+ "t "nstead to a 4"de ar"ety o( other th"n+sra'es and

ethn"' +ro!ps 4"th"n ra'es, re-"+"ons, "deo-o+"es, 'a!sesD s!'h as

an"6a- r"+hts and en"ron6enta-"s6 "tse-( at -east a proto)"deo-o+y,

5!s"ness enterpr"ses -e+a- or "--e+a-, +an+s the ar"ety "s a-6ost-"6"t-ess0 Many peop-e 4ho 4"-- not ("+ht (or the state are ready, een

ea+er, to ("+ht (or the"r ne4 pr"6ary -oya-ty0 Interest"n+-y, 6any o(

52


53/96

these ne4 pr"6ary -oya-t"es are a-so o-d0 They are 4hat peop-e +ae

the"r a--e+"an'e to 5e(ore the r"se o( the state02A+a"n, the 6ost "ta-

"nterest o( a-- states, "n'-!d"n+ the U0S0, "s retard"n+ th"s dyna6"'0 The

state syste6 "tse-( "s at sta1e0 A't"ons that !nder6"ne the -e+"t"6a'y o(

other states 6!st 5e ao"ded0 The"r -"1e-y 'onse8!en'e "s the spread o(

o!rth Generat"on 4ar and an "ntens"("'at"on o( the 'r"s"s o( the state

syste60 I( 4e -oo1 at the prospe't"e re)"no-e6ent o( the U0S0 "n the

Ba-1ans, 4"th the o5@e't"e o( "n(-"'t"n+ (!rther "n@!ry on the Ser5s,

(ro6 th"s perspe't"e the 'on'-!s"ons are stron+-y 'a!t"onary0

The '!rrent Ser5"an +oern6entWs -e+"t"6a'y "s a-ready sha1y0

Un-"1e the M"-ose"' +oern6ent, Ser5"a#s '!rrent r!-ers are "n

sy6pathy 4"th the +-o5a-"st e-"te0 They earnest-y see1, a6on+ other

th"n+s, Ser5"a#s a''ess"on to the E!ropean !n"on, an ant")nat"ona-"st

ent"ty that has (ar -ess s!pport a6on+ E!ropean peop-es than a6on+

E!rope#s e-"tes0 Th"s Ser5"an +oern6ent#s e-e'tora- s!pport "s (ra+"-e

(e4 a't"ons 4o!-d 6ore stron+-y !nder6"ne "ts -e+"t"6a'y than "ts

a''eptan'e o( the per6anent -oss o( 3osoo0 Ser5s# atta'h6ent to

3osoo, the"r an'estra- ho6e-and, "s d"(("'!-t to oerstate0 Those 4ho

!nderstand "t 6"+ht s!++est than no Ser5"an +oern6ent 'o!-d s!r"e,

that a''epted an !-t"6at!6 to reno!n'e 3osoo0

V"e4ed (ro6 a o!rth Generat"on perspe't"e, press!re on

Ser5"a to reno!n'e 3osoo 4o!-d 4ea1en the Ser5"an state re+ard-ess

o( ho4 "t responded0 I( "t y"e-ded, "ts +oern6ent 4o!-d -ose -e+"t"6a'y

and so6e o( "ts peop-e 4o!-d -ose tr!st "n the state "tse-( and start

a't"n+ a''ord"n+-y0 I( "t re@e'ted the de6and, Mrs0 C-"nton and her "-1

4o!-d pres!6a5-y de6and reta-"atory a't"on that 4o!-d preent

Ser5"a#s +oern6ent (ro6 de-"er"n+ 4hat "t had pro6"sed "n ret!rn (or

'ooperat"on 4"th the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty,D "0e0, "6proed

e'ono6"' 'ond"t"ons and eer)'-oser t"es to E!rope0D E"ther 4ay, the

+oern6ent, and poss"5-y the state as 4e--, (a'e a ser"o!s -oss o(

1C(0 Mart"n an Cree-d, 'he 'ransformation of ?ar7Ne4 Yor1 The reePress, 2&&20

53


54/96

-e+"t"6a'y, 4h"'h "s to say that the o!t'o6e, "n ter6s o( U0S0 "nterests,

"s ne+at"e0 P!tt"n+ one#s o4n 'o!ntry "n a -ose)-oseD s"t!at"on "s

+enera--y not re+arded as the p"nna'-e o( d"p-o6at"' a'h"ee6ent0

The +oern6entD o( 3osoo "s a ("'t"on, 5e'a!se there "s no

state0 3osoo 4as neer a state, and neer 4"-- 5e one0 Its "nha5"tants

"dent"(y the6se-es as A-5an"ans the 6"sna6ed 3osoarsD o( the

.estern 6ed"a or Ser5s a (ast)d"sappear"n+ 'o66!n"ty0 3osoo "s a

"'tory (or the (or'es o( the o!rth Generat"on, a state-ess re+"on 4here

they 'an do as they p-ease0 It "s a-ready a 5ase (or 6any s!'h ent"t"es,

"n'-!d"n+ @"had"s, dr!+ s6!++-"n+ +an+s, peop-e s6!++-ers and

'r"6"na- enterpr"ses o( ar"o!s sorts0

The "6pro5a5"-"ty o( 3osoo eer 5e'o6"n+ a rea- state,

re+ard-ess o( 4hat the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty 6ay do or "ntend,

s!++ests that the state syste6 4o!-d 5e 5etter sered 5y 6a1"n+

3osoo on'e a+a"n part o( a rea- state, or 6ore than one state0

The s"t!at"on "n Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na "s s"6"-ar to that "n3osoo0 Bosn"a 4as neer a state s"n'e the do6a"n o( 3"n+ Trt1o

a-6ost seen 'ent!r"es a+o and een then "t 4as @!st one o( h"s 6any

"--!str"o!s do6a"ns0 Bosn"a "s not a state no4, and "t neer 5e a state0

The Croat)M!s-"6 (ederat"on "s !nsta5-e, a''epted ne"ther 5y Croats

nor 5y Mos-e6s0 The Croats 4ant !n"on 4"th Croat"a, and the M!s-"6s

4ant to 'ontro- the 4ho-e o( Bosn"a0 There "s no 'han'e that Bosn"a

4"-- eo-e 5eyond that po"nt0 The one ent"ty "n Bosn"a 4"th -e+"t"6a'yder"ed (ro6 the -oya-ty o( "ts '"t"*ens "s Rep!5-"1a Srps1a ho4eer,

"t, too, "s not a state0 Its -e+"t"6a'y spr"n+s (ro6 the (a't that "t "s a

+oern6ent 5y the Ser5s represent"n+ the peop-e 4ho re+ard

the6se-es as Ser5s,not anyth"n+ e-se, -east o( a-- as Bosn"ans0D The

state they en"s"on 5e"n+ '"t"*ens o(, one day, "s Ser5"a0

Mean4h"-e, @!st as "n 3osoo, the a5sen'e o( a rea- state and

"ts "6poss"5"-"ty render Bosn"a a happy h!nt"n+ +ro!nd (or o!rthGenerat"on ent"t"es0 The M!s-"6 port"on o( Bosn"a ree1s 4"th @"had"s

and +an+s o( 6any ar"et"es, 4ho ("nd M!s-"6 Bosn"a a !se(!- 5ase0

54


55/96

In s!6, the net e((e'ts o( the C-"ntons# Ba-1an po-"'y hae 5een

to 4ea1en one state, Ser5"a, and 'reate t4o ne4 state-ess re+"ons,

3osoo and Bosn"a0 I( '!rrent U0S0 po-"'"es pers"st, Ser5"a "tse-( 6"+ht

5e'o6e a ho--o4 state, 4h"-e 5oth 3osoo and Bosn"a are doo6ed to

re6a"n so0 A6er"'a 4o!-d ("nd that, "n d"re't 'ontrad"'t"on o( "ts

"nterest "s 6a"nta"n"n+ and stren+then"n+ the state syste6, "t has

4ea1ened "t (!rther0 Th"s prospe't ra"ses a 8!est"on ho4 6"+ht the

Con'ert o( E!rope 4"th the U0S0 stay"n+ o!t a't "n the Ba-1ans to

stren+then the state syste6 there

"rst, "t 'o!-d see1 to 5!ttress the Ser5"an state0 That 4o!-d

6ean (a'"-"tat"n+ Ser5"an e'ono6"' dee-op6ent 4h"-e a--o4"n+ the

Ser5"an +oern6ent to o((er "ts peop-e a reasona5-e prospe't o(

reta"n"n+ so6e '-a"6 to 3osoo0 So -on+ as the prospe't e"sts, 3osoo

does not 5e'a6e a de'"s"e de)-e+"t"6"*"n+ "ss!e (or the Ser5"an

+oern6ent0

3osoo 4"-- re6a"n e((e't"e-y a state-ess re+"on and a ho6e to

o!rth Generat"on ent"t"es !nt"- "t "s "n'orporated "nto a rea- state0 The

5est 4ay to a''o6p-"sh that +oa- "s part"t"on 5et4een A-5an"a and

Ser5"a0 The esta5-"sh6ent o( a ne4 Ser5"an)A-5an"an 5order

so6e4here "n 'entra-)northern 3osoo sho!-d pro5a5-y 5e (o--o4ed 5y

o-!ntary e'han+es o( pop!-at"on0 The t"6"n+ and 'ond"t"ons (or an

eent!a- part"t"on 'an re6a"n a+!e, 5!t there 4"-- 5e no rea- state "n

3osoo !nt"- "t happens0

Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na 6"+ht 5e !sed as a pre8!e- to the part"t"on

o( 3osoo, s"n'e Bosn"a "s a-ready e((e't"e-y part"t"oned0 In the end

Rep!5-"1a Srps1a sho!-d @o"n Ser5"a, as 'o6pensat"on (or the

prospe't"e -oss o( the +reater part o( 3osoo0 The other ha-( o( the

Bosn"an ent"ty 'o!-d e"ther 5e part"t"oned 5et4een Croat"a and a

M!s-"6 r!6p state, or a5sor5ed 5y Croat"a "n "ts ent"rety0

These steps 4o!-d p!t a-- Ba-1an terr"tory !nder rea- states,there5y stren+then"n+ the state syste6, 4h"'h sho!-d 5e E!rope#s and

A6er"'a#s pr"6ary strate+"' o5@e't"e "n the (a'e o( o!rth Generat"on

55


56/96

4ar0 The sett-e6ent sho!-d 5e a''epta5-e to a-- the -o'a- po4ers, at

-east (or the (oreseea5-e (!t!re no Ba-1an sett-e6ent "s eer per6anent0

Ser5"a 4o!-d re+a"n part o( 3osoo and 5e 'o6pensated (or the -oss o(

the rest 5y +a"n"n+ Rep!5-"1a Serps1a A-5an"a and Croat"a 4o!-d 5oth

+a"n terr"tory and "n t"6e the Bosn"an Mos-e6 pop!-at"on 4o!-d 'o6e

to per'e"e the 5ene("ts o( ha"n+ a realstate o( the"r o4n, ho4eers6a--0

In 'ontrast, sho!-d the Un"ted States yet a+a"n "nterene "n the

Ba-1ans, 5y atte6pt"n+ to (or'e Be-+rade to (or6a--y 'ede 3osoo and

5y a5o-"sh"n+ Rep!5-"1a Serps1a, the a-6ost 'erta"n res!-t 4"-- 5e a

"'tory (or the (or'es o( o!rth Generat"on 4ar0 3osoo and Bosn"a

4"-- re6a"n 8!as"states 4here o!rth Generat"on ent"t"es r!n ra6pant0

Beyond the Ba-1ans, the U0S0 4o!-d send a '-ear 6essa+e that "t does

not respe't the state syste6, that "t 6ere-y !ses the syste6 4hen "t

4"shes to, and "o-ate "ts r!-es 4"th "6p!n"ty s0 That 4o!-d 5e a (!rther

5-o4 to the -e+"t"6a'y o( the state syste6, "n d"re't 'ontrad"'t"on o( the

6ost "ta- "nterest o( a-- states0

The Ba-1ans no4 (a'e .ash"n+ton 4"th perhaps the 6ost

"6portant 8!est"on o( the $2st 'ent!ry does "t !nderstand ho4 the r"se

o( o!rth Generat"on 4ar a-ters 5as"' strate+"' 'a-'!-at"ons or does "t

not The ans4er to that 8!est"on 4"-- +o (ar "n deter6"n"n+ the (ate o(

the Un"ted States, and the state syste6 "tse-(0

56


57/96


58/96

Y!+os-a"a0 The ICTY at The Ha+!e 4as "ndeed 8!"'1-y 5ro!+ht "nto

5e"n+ 4"th a (!rther Se'!r"ty Co!n'"- reso-!t"on, ;$:, passed on $0 Th"s !se o( the 'r"6"na- -a4 to "nterene "n the 4ars o(

Y!+os-a s!''ess"on 4as !npre'edented0 Neer 5e(ore had an

"nternat"ona- 'r"6"na- tr"5!na- 5een 'reated 4"th s!'h "ntr!s"e po4ers,

or as a pea'e)1eep"n+ 6eas!re0 A6er"'an @!d+es at N!re65er+ "n

2&7:, a't"n+ !nder the ter6s o( the Charter o( the or"+"na- Internat"ona-

M"-"tary Tr"5!na- at N!re65er+, had spe'"("'a--y r!-ed o!t s!'h @!d"'"a-

"nterent"on"s60 The"r o4n po4er, they sa"d, (-o4ed on-y (ro6 the (a't

that Ger6any had no +oern6ent o( her o4n 5e'a!se she hads!rrendered !n'ond"t"ona--y "n May 2&7ilitary 'ribunals underControl Council 0a$ !o7 )13 Vo-!6e III, The =!st"'e CaseD 2&7:,.ash"n+ton /C, 2&


59/96

The "nterent"on"s6 4as 5oth @!d"'"a- and 6"-"tary0 The UN

(or'e, UNPROOR, ha"n+ 5een despat'hed "n 2&&$, the spr"n+ o(

2&&> a-so sa4 the adopt"on o( Se'!r"ty Co!n'"- Reso-!t"on ;2& on 2?

Apr"- 2&&> 4h"'h pro'-a"6ed the 'reat"on o( a UN prote'ted sa(e

areaD aro!nd the to4n o( Sre5ren"'a0 At that t"6e the 6"-"tary 5a-an'e

o( po4er had sh"(ted "n (ao!r o( the Bosn"an Ser5s and the area

'ontro--ed 5y M!s-"6s aro!nd Sre5ren"'a had 5een +reat-y red!'ed0

Sre5ren"'a -"n1ed the northern and so!thern parts o( Ser5 'ontro--ed

terr"tory and th!s had a +reat strate+"' "6portan'e0

The 'reat"on o( a sa(e areaD there 4h"'h, as een the ICTY

ad6"ts,2the M!s-"6s then !sed as a 5ase (or -a!n'h"n+ three years o(

ra"ds on the s!rro!nd"n+ Ser5 "--a+es 4as 1ey to preent"n+ the

Ser5s (ro6 rea-"s"n+ the"r +oa- o( se'ed"n+ (ro6 Bosn"a)Her*e+o"na

4"th a "a5-e state0 The sa6e stat!s o( sa(e areaD 4as -ater a''orded to

a n!65er o( other M!s-"6)he-d to4ns "n Bosn"a 5y Se'!r"ty Co!n'"-

Reso-!t"on ;$7, passed on ? May 2&&>0 In other 4ords, the a''!sat"on

o( +eno'"de (or6a--y -od+ed 4"th the IC= "n Mar'h 2&&> 4as 6ade at a

'r"t"'a- t"6e0 The Bosn"an M!s-"6s had s!((ered heay 6"-"tary de(eats

and 4ere on the po"nt o( -os"n+ the 4ar0 The"r "nternat"ona- strate+y

4as to see1 (ore"+n 6ora- and 6"-"tary s!pport on the 5as"s that

Y!+os-a"a 4as pra't"s"n+ +eno'"de a+a"nst the60$

.hen the Internat"ona- Co!rt o( =!st"'e ("na--y r!-ed on the

Bosn"an s!"t "n $%%:, "t thre4 o!t eery s"n+-e a''!sat"on o( +eno'"de

e'ept 4here Sre5ren"'a 4as 'on'erned0 Th"s 4as part-y "ts o4n

2ICTY, Prose'!tor 0 Rad"s-a 3rst"', Tr"a- Cha65er =!d+e6ent, $ A!+!st$%%2, par0 $70

2The '-a"6 o( +eno'"de 4as s!pported 5y ar"o!s a'ade6"'s "n the .est0 See

Nor6an C"+ar, %enocide in 9osnia3 'he ,olicy of @Ethnic CleansingA,Teas AZM Un"ers"ty Press, 2&&


60/96

read"n+ o( eents and part-y that o( the ICTY, 4hose r!-"n+s "t (e-t "t

'o!-d not d"sre+ard0 In the "nteren"n+ 27 years, the ICTY had entered

'on"'t"ons (or +eno'"de "n Sre5ren"'a a+a"nst Rad"s-a 3rst"' "n $%%2

and V"do@e B-a+o@e"' "n $%%


61/96

=e4s2,the ICTY @!d+es say that the +eno'"da- p-an at Sre5ren"'a d"d

not 'o6e "nto 5e"n+ !nt"- on or aro!nd 2> =!-y

saving peace in bosnia

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